S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

[joea]

Re: S&P 500

I thought I would post this here. From RTT.

http://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/...federal-reserve-owns-the-stock-market-2012-05

joea

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

The core problems with JPMorgan's failed trades
By David Henry and Carrick Mollenkamp

Mon May 14, 2012 1:29am EDT


http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/14/us-jpmorgan-trades-idUSBRE84D04X20120514

excerpted:

COSTS MOUNTING

The effects of JPMorgan's stumble are still being tallied.

Though the bank can easily absorb a loss of $2 billion or more, its credit rating was cut on Friday by Fitch Ratings and its reputation for avoiding problems was dented. Dimon's calls to ease pending regulations have lost credibility. After all, the regulations are supposed to prevent banks from taking big risks of this kind with their balance sheets. On Friday, the bank's shares plunged more than 9 percent, wiping about $15 billion off its market value.

 

[CanOz]

Re: S&P 500

I was incredibly lucky with the banking stock MS, i had been short of it and it had nearly got stopped out but just missed by a few ticks. Then this JPM thing hit my little -250 shares is doing well for some nice grogg money for the month!:drink:

CanOz

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

I was incredibly lucky with the banking stock MS, i had been short of it and it had nearly got stopped out but just missed by a few ticks. Then this JPM thing hit my little -250 shares is doing well for some nice grogg money for the month!:drink:

CanOz

nice, Can..........and a few US banks looking like rebound value after this current downleg

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

Exports of goods have remained strong,........

May 14, 2012, 8:32 AM

Vital Signs: Exports Remain Strong
By Josh Mitchell

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/05/14/vital-signs-exports-remain-strong/?mod=wsj_share_twitter

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

JPMorgan Said to Weigh Bonus Clawbacks After Loss

By Laura Marcinek, Donal Griffin and Dawn Kopecki - May 15, 2012 12:17 PM ET

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-15/jpmorgan-said-to-weigh-bonus-clawbacks-after-loss.html

grin, baby grin.....

 

[Demiurgo]

Re: S&P Analysis

This a possible, NOT SURE, reversal zone, time to keep an eye on the chart.

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

http://sentimentrader.com/blog/archives/151

Downside Pressure Nears Decade High
Posted on May 16, 2012

One of the indicators we track is Down Pressure. It’s currently flirting with its most extreme levels of the past decade.

The indicator looks at the component stocks of the S&P 500 and computes how many points gained/lost were lost, and also how much of the volume flowing into up/down issues went into down issues.

Over the past 10 days, the average of those two figures is 73%, meaning about 73% of the points gained or lost in the component stocks were lost, and about 73% of the volume flowed into issues down on the day.

There have been four other days that match or exceed this reading – 7/22/02, 10/9/08, 7/2/10 and 8/4/11. They were each within days of vicious market bounces.

 

[StumpyPhantom]

Re: S&P 500

Interesting Perspective! Thanks for the link to the site.

I'm assuming when it says that after each such point - and there were 4 - in the last decade, the market viciously bounced UP (and not down).

What's much more striking about this "Down Pressure" point though is the fact that the other such points (except the one 2010) were preceded by huge falls in the market, retracing significant percentages of the rise up to that point.

So if this is similar to the 2010 point, then expect the floor to be about another 5% away and then onwards and upward from there.

Otherwise, this time it just could be different and we're going all the way back to the March 2009 lows and more.

WHICH ONE IS IT?

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

Interesting Perspective! Thanks for the link to the site.

I'm assuming when it says that after each such point - and there were 4 - in the last decade, the market viciously bounced UP (and not down).



WHICH ONE IS IT?

to shed some light on your question, try this article:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/0...date-2/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

sample

 

[StumpyPhantom]

Re: S&P 500

Thanks Joules, very interesting.

Over the last 4 years, if I had a dollar for everytime I read/heard somebody say there was a lot of "cash on the sidelines", I would - well - have a lot of cash on the sidelines.

That line's usually sprouted by those who are trying to get that cash OFF the sidelines. But the reason it's sitting on the sidelines is that it's SMART. There isn't any March 2009 rally in the offing. Realistically, there isn't one until a number of planets (US housing/unemployment, Euro and Chinese growth) align. And that ain't going to be happening anytime soon.

Now all we need is the black swan, in the form of Israeli fighter/bombers to fly into Iranian airspace looking for their nuclear weapons. The Israelis are cold and calculating enough to do it now so that our international attention is diverted...

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

time for some global blah blah

MarketDelta ‏@marketdelta

Most stocks in the world are now below their 50-day price averages

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

and

Walter Murphy ‏@waltergmurphy

Bullish Percent Index (BPI) for the S&P 1500 ($SPSUPX) below zero for the first time since November.

HunterKillerSub ‏@HunterKillerSub

$SPX Percent of Components over 200 Day MAs dropping too way fast http://twitpic.com/9m8eot this is alarming -- White House should see this

 

[StumpyPhantom]

Re: S&P 500

Now all we need is the black swan, in the form of Israeli fighter/bombers to fly into Iranian airspace looking for their nuclear weapons. The Israelis are cold and calculating enough to do it now so that our international attention is diverted...

Here it comes...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/17/us-israel-iran-idUSBRE84G0UC20120517

I was only speculating at this last night but...

"Experts say that within a few months, much of Iran's nuclear program will have been moved deep underground beneath the Fordow mountain, making a successful military strike much more difficult."

This will happen during the current downdraft in the market, so expect a 10%-15% value add from a bomb strike. The surrounding retaliation into Israel will last 6 weeks, and the Americans BUT FOR the November Presidential elections, would be in there boots and all.

They're probably already helping to plan the strike...

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

broad brush-stroke idea

see the history of the crossing of the 12 day sma

do we hang onto a 3rd attempt ?

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

we're now sitting firmly on top of the 12 sma on the spx and no real sign that there's reason to be/get long.....maybe a whip-up to mid 1330's for a hook sell......and this pic tells the story.....this is not QCOM in the midst of a tech revolution, this is likely a sad face of a sneezing bull cycle.....buuuurrrrrrtt, the bigger the call the bigger the fool :

nails the high of the day at the open, gets stagged, closes at the low......auspicious eek

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

those should read the 12 monthly sma ......... :screwy:

 

[robertgordon]

Re: S&P 500

Long term and Intermediate Time Cycles moving into directional alignment point towards A seasonal Low on the SP500 between the 22nd - 24th May 2012 . Calculating potential price points is a little bit more complex but as we approach this two day window we will be in a better position to more accurately gauge a support level . 1280 presents itself as an important area and here are a frew reasons why . October 4th 2011 low 1073 square root = 32.75 + 3 squares = 1278 ( 3 squares up from low ) . March 27th 2012 high 1424 square root = 37.73 - 2 squares = 1277 ( 2 squares down from low ) . Price is trading below the 45 degree angle from October 4th 2011 Low and a 1x4 angle projected May 2nd May 2011 high 1376 will intersect 1279 between the 22nd - 24th May which could also provide additional technical evidence . By examining past movents we can see that the downswing from October 27th 2011 - Nov 25th 2011 point measured 137 points . Projecting 137 points below the March 27th 1424 level equals 1288 zone .
1282 is five revolutions ( 360 degrees ) above 666 March Low 2009 and also on the same longitudal degree . 1279 is 180 degrees anglo or opposite 1073 Oct 4th 2011 Low
1277 price is one full revolution down and on the same longitudal degree as 1424 High on the 27th March 2012 . so examing the evidence the area between 1277 - 1280 could turn out to be quite an important support zone . if price action consolidates around this zone this could confirm 22 - 24th May as Seasonal Low point .

thanks

 

[skc]

Re: S&P 500

we're now sitting firmly on top of the 12 sma on the spx and no real sign that there's reason to be/get long.....maybe a whip-up to mid 1330's for a hook sell......and this pic tells the story.....this is not QCOM in the midst of a tech revolution, this is likely a sad face of a sneezing bull cycle.....buuuurrrrrrtt, the bigger the call the bigger the fool :

nails the high of the day at the open, gets stagged, closes at the low......auspicious eek

Lol. Nice chart. where's the Like button?

 

[robertgordon]

Re: S&P 500

FTSE index : Fri 18th May may come in as Seasonal Low or 21st May 2012 .
Will endeavour to confirm a price level tomorrow . thnx