S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

[MRC & Co]

Re: S&P Analysis

IMHO the market isn't looking weak enough for a short here, but has me concerned enough to lighten up on longs. Currently I'm going to start looking for reasons to increase size again if we get down to the 1340-45 area on the S&P

Yeh I agree, I could even see a shallow pullback just through a 50 handle (perhaps 47-48s) before grinding around more rangebound like the DAX and FTSE have been doing.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: S&P Analysis

Asian indexes are breaking down boys. Risk currencies not looking hot. Commodities a bit stinky.

Don't fight the squiggly lines boys.

 

[sinner]

Re: S&P Analysis

Asian indexes are breaking down boys. Risk currencies not looking hot. Commodities a bit stinky.

Don't fight the squiggly lines boys.

hehe, word. I took a couple of scratches trying to long the AUDUSD into the rates announcement (-5 and a +5) but the squiggles were screaming short and nobody was willing to bid 1.065 at 2:28 so I switched short right there and came out +20 real quick as the rates announcement came out. I wasn't game to let it run, as soon as some size appeared I got out.

Good start to the week!

 

[professor_frink]

Re: S&P Analysis

Currently I'm going to start looking for reasons to increase size again if we get down to the 1340-45 area on the S&P

LOL! That was fast. Lowest print for the past 2 weeks, 4 days out from a high, and 3 consecutive down days - all suggest a decent 1-5 day upside edge from here. Would have liked a bit more volume on last night's move, but was at least good to see it rising some

 

[baby_swallow]

Re: S&P Analysis

S&P....been a long time comin'

 

[skc]

Re: S&P Analysis

LOL! That was fast. Lowest print for the past 2 weeks, 4 days out from a high, and 3 consecutive down days - all suggest a decent 1-5 day upside edge from here. Would have liked a bit more volume on last night's move, but was at least good to see it rising some

Is it just me or does it feel like everyone is expecting this dip to be shallow?

Is the tail risk of Greece defaulting adquately priced in?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: S&P Analysis

Is it just me or does it feel like everyone is expecting this dip to be shallow?

Is the tail risk of Greece defaulting adquately priced in?

I'd say most of the money has already ran. Outside of index traders anyway. I wouldn't be buying this as the first dip unless it was a quick flip like Professor is pointing out or it turns into something nasty over the next week and we end up down near 1320

 

[professor_frink]

Re: S&P Analysis

Is it just me or does it feel like everyone is expecting this dip to be shallow?

Is the tail risk of Greece defaulting adquately priced in?

Don't think that kind of an event can ever be properly priced in.

As for the dip being shallow or not, I generally find that it's better to keep buying the dips fairly early on really strong upmoves like the one we've had the past few months. If I sit back and wait for a larger correction, then I end up sitting on the sidelines way too often, only to finally step in right at the worst possible moment.

 

[wayneL]

Re: S&P Analysis

Don't think that kind of an event can ever be properly priced in.

As for the dip being shallow or not, I generally find that it's better to keep buying the dips fairly early on really strong upmoves like the one we've had the past few months. If I sit back and wait for a larger correction, then I end up sitting on the sidelines way too often, only to finally step in right at the worst possible moment.

Yep Frinky. Folks just want to buy at the moment. They've just bumped up VIX for the boyz.

 

[skc]

Re: S&P Analysis

Don't think that kind of an event can ever be properly priced in.

As for the dip being shallow or not, I generally find that it's better to keep buying the dips fairly early on really strong upmoves like the one we've had the past few months. If I sit back and wait for a larger correction, then I end up sitting on the sidelines way too often, only to finally step in right at the worst possible moment.

Interesting view. I agree with buy early dips but I wonder if this dip can actually be considered "early" in a move that's occured over 3 months.

The Greece deadline may or may not be significant... but I have lightened up a fair bit over the past week. Needed to take some profit off the table and feed my children

But there's no denying that strong up move often happens when you (actually me) least expect.

 

[sinner]

Re: S&P Analysis

Interesting view. I agree with buy early dips but I wonder if this dip can actually be considered "early" in a move that's occured over 3 months.

The Greece deadline may or may not be significant... but I have lightened up a fair bit over the past week. Needed to take some profit off the table and feed my children

But there's no denying that strong up move often happens when you (actually me) least expect.

Hedgers (using the CBOE equity put/call as a proxy) haven't been so complacent on this run-up as in previous, so it's possible that without a 'selling event' the dip will be just that.

vixandmore had a good recent post on magnitudes which is definitely worth a geez. Link+snippet:
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/putting-current-26-spx-pullback-in.html

...investors should probably keep in mind that the median pullback during the last three years has lasted 7 trading days and dropped the SPX a total of 5.6%. Were we to see a median pullback form this time around, it would suggest a bottom of about SPX 1301 sometime on Friday after the employment report.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: S&P Analysis

Don't think that kind of an event can ever be properly priced in.

As for the dip being shallow or not, I generally find that it's better to keep buying the dips fairly early on really strong upmoves like the one we've had the past few months. If I sit back and wait for a larger correction, then I end up sitting on the sidelines way too often, only to finally step in right at the worst possible moment.

On fire Frink, 40s was a great level!

Agree though on equity dips at the moment, same as was talked about previously in the thread, when its on a liquidity flush, dips tend to be much more shallow. Once the CBs let the mkts be, dips can become true corrections. That said, we have BoE and ECB tonight (and the smaller Canadian and NZ CBs meeting which while won't make a large market impact, can sometimes be interpreted as a lead to other antipodean and growth economy CB action). Good to see some top notch discussion from some of you 'old' trading heads!

 

[notting]

Re: S&P Analysis

God I wish you guys would speak English.

 

[skc]

Re: S&P Analysis

No one is at all concerned that Greece can blow tonight? Or is that so priced in that it might actually be a positive?

 

[sinner]

Re: S&P Analysis

No one is at all concerned that Greece can blow tonight? Or is that so priced in that it might actually be a positive?

I bought a few weekly SPY 130 puts for 10c last night around London lunchtime. Otherwise, not exposed so not concerned. Let 'er rip!

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: S&P Analysis

No one is at all concerned that Greece can blow tonight? Or is that so priced in that it might actually be a positive?

If it does there is one nice walk up going into it.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: S&P Analysis

There are problems in Greece?

 

[skc]

Re: S&P Analysis

If it does there is one nice walk up going into it.

That's what I don't like about it... it feel better if the market was less complacent.

There are problems in Greece?

No. Only problems with those who lend/lent to Greece.

Has anyone got a good website doing the "Debt swap tally live" or something like that?

I bought a few weekly SPY 130 puts for 10c last night around London lunchtime. Otherwise, not exposed so not concerned. Let 'er rip!

10c? I see the 9 Mar are going for 4c, 17 Mar @ 26c and 30 Mar @ 79c.

I think I will buy some DAX puts...

 

[professor_frink]

Re: S&P Analysis

Interesting view. I agree with buy early dips but I wonder if this dip can actually be considered "early" in a move that's occured over 3 months.

The Greece deadline may or may not be significant... but I have lightened up a fair bit over the past week. Needed to take some profit off the table and feed my children

But there's no denying that strong up move often happens when you (actually me) least expect.

Sorry skc I'll clarify a little, I'm referring to early in the context of buying a dip 4 days out from a high, not early in that I've been waiting 3 months to get set on a dip(if that's even what you were getting at?)

On fire Frink, 40s was a great level!

Agree though on equity dips at the moment, same as was talked about previously in the thread, when its on a liquidity flush, dips tend to be much more shallow. Once the CBs let the mkts be, dips can become true corrections. That said, we have BoE and ECB tonight (and the smaller Canadian and NZ CBs meeting which while won't make a large market impact, can sometimes be interpreted as a lead to other antipodean and growth economy CB action). Good to see some top notch discussion from some of you 'old' trading heads!

Thanks MRC, good to see you and TH floating around again

 

[skc]

Re: S&P Analysis

Sorry skc I'll clarify a little, I'm referring to early in the context of buying a dip 4 days out from a high, not early in that I've been waiting 3 months to get set on a dip(if that's even what you were getting at?)

Thanks for the clarification. I was thinking early in relation to the uptrend, rather than early in relation to the start of the dip.

Looks like the US should challenge the new highs again, while we still muck around below 4300.

Thanks MRC, good to see you and TH floating around again

+1