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BHP up 1.5% today
TJ
Resource stock recovery BHP/RIO
- Thread starter markrmau
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BHP up 1.5% today
TJ
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I'm very bullish on BHP now. After looking at the charts for gold and oil, I think that its on its way up again. Copper has rebounded strongly so all in all, I am very bullish on resource stocks.
BHP has rebounded strongly off the 200 day moving average (dma) and is now finding support from the 50% Fibonacci retracement line. I also have drawn a long term support line that BHP is keeping above. Stochastics are indicating oversold so am expecting BHP to start going up.
This is not advice as I'm not an expert in TA so please do your own research.
BHP has rebounded strongly off the 200 day moving average (dma) and is now finding support from the 50% Fibonacci retracement line. I also have drawn a long term support line that BHP is keeping above. Stochastics are indicating oversold so am expecting BHP to start going up.
This is not advice as I'm not an expert in TA so please do your own research.
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BHP announced on Friday it has reached 90.59% ownership of WMC. The take over offer has now closed and BHP will now move to compulsory acquire the remaining shares.
effectively BHP will own 100% of WMC and there will be no minority holders
TJ
effectively BHP will own 100% of WMC and there will be no minority holders
TJ
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BHP has had a very good run along with the other major resource companies, but I feel the major run is over in the short term.
Good luck.
Good luck.
No recent posts on this thread. BHP & RIO sp going gang busters, I guess everyone has fallen in love with their long positions and now have more important things to do like counting their money.
Just to add something to the thread, have a look at MND & MAH, two support companies who stand to do very well out of BHP & RIO's increased capacity & infrastructure expansion.
I understand if investor's fingures needed some R & R after the previous posts ;o) but hopefully we will get this thread firing again.
Just to add something to the thread, have a look at MND & MAH, two support companies who stand to do very well out of BHP & RIO's increased capacity & infrastructure expansion.
I understand if investor's fingures needed some R & R after the previous posts ;o) but hopefully we will get this thread firing again.
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Sold half my BHP yesterday (21.18) pretty much on the back of the markets response to BlueScopes record profit. BHP is a very different animal - but I really don't know how the market will respond to the largest profit report in ASX history.... so far today BHP's down 1.5%
All will be revealed later today
All will be revealed later today
Hi TJ,
It's frustrating, a good profit result combined with positive outlook should mean improved PE ratio, presenting value and a rise in SP.
But oh no we have hedge funds, short selling, options, warrants, SPI and what ever else to try and consider, so who knows what BHP's SP will do, it's just a roll of the dice.
Fundamentals for our resources remain strong. This market seems to be incredibly whippy, which I think is due partly because there are so many ways of skining it to make money.
I will just hold my BHP and see where we end up................
It's frustrating, a good profit result combined with positive outlook should mean improved PE ratio, presenting value and a rise in SP.
But oh no we have hedge funds, short selling, options, warrants, SPI and what ever else to try and consider, so who knows what BHP's SP will do, it's just a roll of the dice.
Fundamentals for our resources remain strong. This market seems to be incredibly whippy, which I think is due partly because there are so many ways of skining it to make money.
I will just hold my BHP and see where we end up................
JeffB said:
Well said. Add fear, greed and a plethora of derivative products and you get.......
....noise!
I am somewhat concerned that a massive profit result has already been factored into the SP. So far, most companies that have a good run up prior to results haven't done so well.
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JeffB said:
Theres no doubt in the market that the result will be good. I think the price movement will be totally dictated by what they say about future commodity outlook - a very subjective measure.
BSL got hammered yesterday when it said next years profit won't be as large. Other interesting facts in their comments where that they have never experienced such a large rise in their inputs (iron ore) and will struggle to pass them on to consumers. We still haven't seen the full effects of the commodity price boom at the everyday store. Whats going to happen when this inlfation wave hits???
I was avidly watching the close of market, at 4.00pm BHP was -0.02, not a bad recovery considering the intra day levels, after market settlements went on longer then usual and at 4.10pm Bang !!! BHP is all of a sudden -0.51
Considering the huge result the div payout was a meesly pittence @ US 0.14 cents
Considering the huge result the div payout was a meesly pittence @ US 0.14 cents
JeffB said:
Sorry guys, you must be looking only at a web interface - puts you at a slight disadvantage.
This is what really was going on - see attached screen shot.
BHP put into pre-open at 3.57pm
Announcement released to market at 4.01pm
Closing auction (resume) occured at 4.10pm
Attachments
Whilst everything else is heading North for BHP, shareholder distribution is going South.
BHP's Dividend Payout Ratio for 2005 was 27%, this is markedly down (-41.9%) on the 2004 Payout Ratio of 41%
So whilst BHP reeps the benefits of strong commodity markets, it's poor supportive and long suffering sharholders get screwed on the dividend.
Has anyone heard how management justfied the Payout Ratio of 27% for the 2005 result ?
BHP's Dividend Payout Ratio for 2005 was 27%, this is markedly down (-41.9%) on the 2004 Payout Ratio of 41%
So whilst BHP reeps the benefits of strong commodity markets, it's poor supportive and long suffering sharholders get screwed on the dividend.
Has anyone heard how management justfied the Payout Ratio of 27% for the 2005 result ?
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Jeff B.
People who buy BHP dont buy it for the dividend. There are plenty of companys out there that pay a big div. People selling BHP in the last few days due to BHP's div policy has been a buying oppitunity.
I suggest you buy something else. BHP is making a return on equity of 35%. I'm only going to reinvest the div. Where can I get my money to earn 35% in anything else? I would prefer BHP to have it. They can reduce debt, or maybe buy another WMR. They could buy another WMR every year on the cash flow.
I hold lots of BHP.
Good luck.
People who buy BHP dont buy it for the dividend. There are plenty of companys out there that pay a big div. People selling BHP in the last few days due to BHP's div policy has been a buying oppitunity.
I suggest you buy something else. BHP is making a return on equity of 35%. I'm only going to reinvest the div. Where can I get my money to earn 35% in anything else? I would prefer BHP to have it. They can reduce debt, or maybe buy another WMR. They could buy another WMR every year on the cash flow.
I hold lots of BHP.
Good luck.
Thanks for the tip Onceler but I think I will hold for now.
BHP purchased WMR last fin year with the previous dividend payout ratio of 41%. There is no reason to my knowlegde why the dividend payout ratio this year was reduced to 27%
I like BHP for the growth prospects, obviously not the dividend. The are a number of other listed blue chips with equal or better growth prospects, to BHP with dividend payout ratio's of up to 80%
Those of us looking for growth are not helped when the SP gets smacked due to an explained reduction in the dividend payout. It should have been left at 41%
Still holding.........just
BHP purchased WMR last fin year with the previous dividend payout ratio of 41%. There is no reason to my knowlegde why the dividend payout ratio this year was reduced to 27%
I like BHP for the growth prospects, obviously not the dividend. The are a number of other listed blue chips with equal or better growth prospects, to BHP with dividend payout ratio's of up to 80%
Those of us looking for growth are not helped when the SP gets smacked due to an explained reduction in the dividend payout. It should have been left at 41%
Still holding.........just
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Something of interest from mineweb.com.
The graph everyone’s talking about
By: Barry Sergeant
Posted: '25-AUG-05 11:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004
JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- “We will not bet this company,” said BHP Billiton CEO Chip Goodyear this week, while presenting record group results for the year to June 30, 2005. The world’s biggest diversified resources company posted a bottom line profit of $6.5 billion for the year, a growth of nearly 90% on the previous year’s figure.
On the question of betting, Goodyear was referring to a graph which shows that despite the monster profits delivered by BHP Billiton, commodity prices are barely out of the starting blocks from 200-year lows.
Goodyear’s amazing graph was compiled from a variety of sources, including the US All Commodities Producer Price Index, US Consumer Price Inflation, US Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States, and the Colonial Times, to 1970.
Goodyear stressed that the graph needed to be looked at “quite carefully.” A small move on the graph, Goodyear explained, “is actually several decades.” According to the graph, “today we find ourselves at a period of time which is, or rather close to it anyway, 2001/2002 when real commodity prices were the lowest they’ve been in the last 200 years which essentially puts them at the lowest price they’ve been in known history.”
Despite the apparent evidence, Goodyear is not going to bet BHP Billiton. He insisted that despite the apparent opportunities, the group will instead continue to benefit from “a tier one set of assets, large low-cost long-reserve-life assets. We benefit from the technical skills that come with having operated these businesses in an industry that has shrunk over the last 30 years in terms of the number of companies as well as the number of individuals participating in our industry.”
The BHP Billiton strategy has been – at least in part – to use its “tentacles into the marketplace to understand where our customers want to take their business.” The group, explained Goodyear, has used its global footprint to identify opportunities, “not just from the market point of view, but from where products are produced.”
As an example of that strategy and also of the kind of growth that has already started up, Goodyear cited BHP Billiton’s Pilbara operation in Western Australia, where, in 2001, production was 65 million tons of iron ore. Today, production is running at about 110 million tons on an annual basis.
Looking at the big picture, the most recent decline in commodity prices set in about thirty years ago, around the time of Vietnam and the Cold War. Price declines were aggravated by the growth of the services economy, which required little in the way of raw materials, in the developed nations.
Everyone familiar with the resources story knows the big question going forward. As Goodyear put it: “Is China and is India and are the developed economies of the world going to represent the next secular change in raw material demand and therefore raw material prices? Now as you know, we can’t answer that question in foresight.”
But, added Goodyear, “we do think there is a reasonable probability that that is going to occur. At least we have to build that into our scenarios. So what we do is consider what options we can create to participate in that market circumstance if indeed it does occur.”
Goodyear also did the decent thing by directly asking “Where are prices going to go?” He argued that we’re all familiar with the two, three and four year business cycles – “most of us have had most of our working life in those kind of cycles; the decades of the 70s, 80s and 90s are characteristic of those.”
What Goodyear talks about “from time to time is that there is another set of cycles that take place. These are secular changes that do take place from time to time.” The graph shows that after World War I, and the Great Depression, there was a period of several decades of above-trend growth in commodity prices, driven by an intensity of demand. Watch this space.
You can view the graph on:
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/mining_finance/476223.htm
The graph everyone’s talking about
By: Barry Sergeant
Posted: '25-AUG-05 11:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004
JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- “We will not bet this company,” said BHP Billiton CEO Chip Goodyear this week, while presenting record group results for the year to June 30, 2005. The world’s biggest diversified resources company posted a bottom line profit of $6.5 billion for the year, a growth of nearly 90% on the previous year’s figure.
On the question of betting, Goodyear was referring to a graph which shows that despite the monster profits delivered by BHP Billiton, commodity prices are barely out of the starting blocks from 200-year lows.
Goodyear’s amazing graph was compiled from a variety of sources, including the US All Commodities Producer Price Index, US Consumer Price Inflation, US Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States, and the Colonial Times, to 1970.
Goodyear stressed that the graph needed to be looked at “quite carefully.” A small move on the graph, Goodyear explained, “is actually several decades.” According to the graph, “today we find ourselves at a period of time which is, or rather close to it anyway, 2001/2002 when real commodity prices were the lowest they’ve been in the last 200 years which essentially puts them at the lowest price they’ve been in known history.”
Despite the apparent evidence, Goodyear is not going to bet BHP Billiton. He insisted that despite the apparent opportunities, the group will instead continue to benefit from “a tier one set of assets, large low-cost long-reserve-life assets. We benefit from the technical skills that come with having operated these businesses in an industry that has shrunk over the last 30 years in terms of the number of companies as well as the number of individuals participating in our industry.”
The BHP Billiton strategy has been – at least in part – to use its “tentacles into the marketplace to understand where our customers want to take their business.” The group, explained Goodyear, has used its global footprint to identify opportunities, “not just from the market point of view, but from where products are produced.”
As an example of that strategy and also of the kind of growth that has already started up, Goodyear cited BHP Billiton’s Pilbara operation in Western Australia, where, in 2001, production was 65 million tons of iron ore. Today, production is running at about 110 million tons on an annual basis.
Looking at the big picture, the most recent decline in commodity prices set in about thirty years ago, around the time of Vietnam and the Cold War. Price declines were aggravated by the growth of the services economy, which required little in the way of raw materials, in the developed nations.
Everyone familiar with the resources story knows the big question going forward. As Goodyear put it: “Is China and is India and are the developed economies of the world going to represent the next secular change in raw material demand and therefore raw material prices? Now as you know, we can’t answer that question in foresight.”
But, added Goodyear, “we do think there is a reasonable probability that that is going to occur. At least we have to build that into our scenarios. So what we do is consider what options we can create to participate in that market circumstance if indeed it does occur.”
Goodyear also did the decent thing by directly asking “Where are prices going to go?” He argued that we’re all familiar with the two, three and four year business cycles – “most of us have had most of our working life in those kind of cycles; the decades of the 70s, 80s and 90s are characteristic of those.”
What Goodyear talks about “from time to time is that there is another set of cycles that take place. These are secular changes that do take place from time to time.” The graph shows that after World War I, and the Great Depression, there was a period of several decades of above-trend growth in commodity prices, driven by an intensity of demand. Watch this space.
You can view the graph on:
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/mining_finance/476223.htm
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Good Thread.
BHP up in the US & UK. Copper futures up. Should see it move a bit on the ASX.
BHP up in the US & UK. Copper futures up. Should see it move a bit on the ASX.
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