Resisting Climate Hysteria

[Sean K]

Channel 9 have given this some airtime

Victorians have shivered through the lowest summer temperature ever recorded this morning, with snow falling across large parts of the state's alps.
The mercury dipped to -5.4 degrees at Mt Hotham by 5am, officially marking the chilliest summer day in the state since records began.
In sad news for anybody hoping to enjoy the summer sunshine, the frosty conditions are set to continue for some time yet.

Victoria shivers through lowest summer temperature on record

www.9news.com.au

Does the global warming hypothesis support record cold weather? I know it's an El Nina but I thought that was just more rain. And, I think global warming hypothesis has changed from 'no more rain or snow' to more extreme weather events, like more severe droughts and floods. But, record cold?

Maybe there's some theory that the warmists have come up with that explains this cold is due to global warming in another way. Maybe an Antarctic vortex sending cold north is responsible somehow.

 

[orr]

Does the global warming hypothesis support record cold weather?

Yeah it does.
Along with a few other observed facts; the consequences to arctic ice sheet, the almost 3 decade shrink of the Greenland ice sheet, the effects on global glaciers, ocean acidification.... I could go on .... but why bother.

Is getting a bit easier to find mamoth tusks?
And ahh I wonder why they're extinct?

 

[Sean K]

Yeah it does.

Ah, I've done a quick google and there's quite a few article on green sites saying it is because of a Polar Vortex. Warming causes cold, got it.

 

[IFocus]

Sean the trend is pointing to higher temps but certainly doesn't rule out extreme lower temps along the way unless you get enough to change the trend.

Given there is more energy in weathers systems and growing don't know if that translates to colder events as well.

Would urge you to read up on sea ice for both poles and glacier melts, basically we are f%$ked.

Also read up on ocean warming trends and the delay in the really nasty stuff due to oceans being the earths heat sinks and the lag in absorption and tipping points again we are f%$ked.

Merry Xmas.

 

[wayneL]

Re colder temps.

Heresy, I tells ya.

 

[Sean K]

Sean the trend is pointing to higher temps but certainly doesn't rule out extreme lower temps along the way unless you get enough to change the trend.

Given there is more energy in weathers systems and growing don't know if that translates to colder events as well.

Would urge you to read up on sea ice for both poles and glacier melts, basically we are f%$ked.

Also read up on ocean warming trends and the delay in the really nasty stuff due to oceans being the earths heat sinks and the lag in absorption and tipping points again we are f%$ked.

Merry Xmas.

Yes, I have been reading up on this stuff over several years but the goal posts have been changing from the climate scientists. It was only a couple of years ago that there was going to be 'end of snow'.

These types of claims, along with 'even the rain that falls won't fill our dams' have been horribly incorrect and caused massive investment in white elephant desalination plants and resulted in tourism and property valuations being decimated on the slopes.

I daresay that the recent damages we've suffered with flooding has been due in part to water not being released from the dams earlier due to the fear that there was not going to be any replenishment from normal cycles of dry and wet. The water management bodies allowed Wivenhoe and the Hume to go to almost overflowing before releasing water.

And let's also consider that large sections of the Great Barrier Reef is in the best condition it has been since records have been kept.

The catastrophism surrounding the short-medium term predictions have almost gone beyond the 'boy who cried wolf' idiom. IMO, it's causing a greater rush to renewables that might be necessary and damaging our economies and energy security to almost beyond repair making us extremely vulnerable to potential security shocks and damaging the lives of people who can't afford the financial pain we're coping - and it's only just starting.

The transition to RE has just been managed horribly across the entire planet at all levels.

 

[Sean K]

Re colder temps.

Heresy, I tells ya.

I got to about the 15 min mark Wayne and I still didn't know what she was trying to get on about. Conclusion?

 

[Sean K]

Anyone watch Tony Heller's stuff on You Tube?

https://www.youtube.com/@TonyHeller/videos

 

[IFocus]

Yes, I have been reading up on this stuff over several years but the goal posts have been changing from the climate scientists. It was only a couple of years ago that there was going to be 'end of snow'.

These types of claims, along with 'even the rain that falls won't fill our dams' have been horribly incorrect and caused massive investment in white elephant desalination plants and resulted in tourism and property valuations being decimated on the slopes.

I daresay that the recent damages we've suffered with flooding has been due in part to water not being released from the dams earlier due to the fear that there was not going to be any replenishment from normal cycles of dry and wet. The water management bodies allowed Wivenhoe and the Hume to go to almost overflowing before releasing water.

And let's also consider that large sections of the Great Barrier Reef is in the best condition it has been since records have been kept.

The catastrophism surrounding the short-medium term predictions have almost gone beyond the 'boy who cried wolf' idiom. IMO, it's causing a greater rush to renewables that might be necessary and damaging our economies and energy security to almost beyond repair making us extremely vulnerable to potential security shocks and damaging the lives of people who can't afford the financial pain we're coping - and it's only just starting.

The transition to RE has just been managed horribly across the entire planet at all levels.

Yes unfortunately politics has crept in not just from politicians (starting with the Republicans US in the 80,s) but also among so called climate scientists (is there anyone who now isn't?).

Much of the immediate dooms day stuff is various people trying to hurry up the process's of change (Tim Fannery an example?) the actual science is sound, understanding it is simple particularly if you have work with and around gases and understand measurement and statistics but messing with the timing has done harm.
Safe to say it has given anti climate groups (talking about vested interests with seriously large amounts of money backing this) plenty of ammunition to sow doubt.

With climate and weather clearly there are variations and its not a straight line but the over all trend is dramatic and clear.

WA is a good example.

As a side comment I am surfer (also from a farming family )and have long followed weather patterns here in WA along two generations before me.

In WA climate change is really in your face the bumper yield crops grown today in WA wouldn't have been possible 50 years ago with the same rain fall patterns seen today, its advances in farming technology that has allowed for the record crops.

The fall in run off to WA south western water reserves is extreme and without desalination plants Perth would run out of water.

As the head of the WA state run Water Corp has said no one in her department doubts that climate change is real.

It could be argued that WA is merely an example of variation in weather patterns and the east coast flooding confirms that.

If anything the east coat flooding is more likely an early indication of more energy in weather systems hence a more severe La Nina time will tell.
BTW surfing forecasters (Swellnet is pretty good) predicted the events unfolding on the east coast around 6 months out the NSW Premier apparently didn't get told when he said no one could have predicted this, politics eh.

My take on the whole thing is I think its all to late particularly if the loss of ice and glaciers continues at the same rate (which means expediential rate sooner).

The changes to RE is certainly messy, if you follow Smurfs and SP's commentary the lack of proper engineering is painful to watch but such environments create change for the better and major advances and hopefully break outs in new means of energy putting to bed once and for all the need for fossil fuels safe nuclear at all sizes would be great.

 

[Sean K]

Yes unfortunately politics has crept in not just from politicians (starting with the Republicans US in the 80,s) but also among so called climate scientists (is there anyone who now isn't?).

Much of the immediate dooms day stuff is various people trying to hurry up the process's of change (Tim Fannery an example?) the actual science is sound, understanding it is simple particularly if you have work with and around gases and understand measurement and statistics but messing with the timing has done harm.
Safe to say it has given anti climate groups (talking about vested interests with seriously large amounts of money backing this) plenty of ammunition to sow doubt.

With climate and weather clearly there are variations and its not a straight line but the over all trend is dramatic and clear.

WA is a good example.

As a side comment I am surfer (also from a farming family )and have long followed weather patterns here in WA along two generations before me.

In WA climate change is really in your face the bumper yield crops grown today in WA wouldn't have been possible 50 years ago with the same rain fall patterns seen today, its advances in farming technology that has allowed for the record crops.

The fall in run off to WA south western water reserves is extreme and without desalination plants Perth would run out of water.

As the head of the WA state run Water Corp has said no one in her department doubts that climate change is real.

It could be argued that WA is merely an example of variation in weather patterns and the east coast flooding confirms that.

If anything the east coat flooding is more likely an early indication of more energy in weather systems hence a more severe La Nina time will tell.
BTW surfing forecasters (Swellnet is pretty good) predicted the events unfolding on the east coast around 6 months out the NSW Premier apparently didn't get told when he said no one could have predicted this, politics eh.

My take on the whole thing is I think its all to late particularly if the loss of ice and glaciers continues at the same rate (which means expediential rate sooner).

The changes to RE is certainly messy, if you follow Smurfs and SP's commentary the lack of proper engineering is painful to watch but such environments create change for the better and major advances and hopefully break outs in new means of energy putting to bed once and for all the need for fossil fuels safe nuclear at all sizes would be great.

I didn't realise WA had been using it's desal plant. Has there been any push to build some extra dams to capture water during the wet for the dry, or has it not been considered due to being hoodwinked by the likes of Flannery who said it'd never rain again? I thought the SW of Australia, along with much of the World, was getting greener due to the extra CO2 according to NASA? Isn't that one of the additional reasons for bumper crops, along with fertalisers etc?

 

[wayneL]

I got to about the 15 min mark Wayne and I still didn't know what she was trying to get on about. Conclusion?

It is incredibly boring (I can almost sense the host of the video start to nod off, but it was mostly about cycles, solar, revolutions, wobbles and whatnot.

The meat of her arguement of course comes well into the video.

A very quick summary, more warming may come but there could be a cold cycle first.

 

[IFocus]

I didn't realise WA had been using it's desal plant. Has there been any push to build some extra dams to capture water during the wet for the dry, or has it not been considered due to being hoodwinked by the likes of Flannery who said it'd never rain again? I thought the SW of Australia, along with much of the World, was getting greener due to the extra CO2 according to NASA? Isn't that one of the additional reasons for bumper crops, along with fertalisers etc?

WA has 3 desal plants running at full capacity 35% of total water supply info here, streamflow measured from 1911 scroll down to the chart here, crops are due to being planted now totally by GPS allowing exactly the right amount of grain and fertilizer per square mm (I kid you not) and then spraying the crops (same accuracy) during the growing season etc also with greater control of pesticides and weedicides.

Gear for all this now in the millions so many places are in the 20K acres + talking to some one the other day 3K acres cropping said he was to small sold up to the neighbor 25k acres

Edit 2 desal 3rd on the way

 

[wayneL]

WA has 3 desal plants running at full capacity 35% of total water supply info here, streamflow measured from 1911 scroll down to the chart here, crops are due to being planted now totally by GPS allowing exactly the right amount of grain and fertilizer per square mm (I kid you not) and then spraying the crops (same accuracy) during the growing season etc also with greater control of pesticides and weedicides.

Gear for all this now in the millions so many places are in the 20K acres + talking to some one the other day 3K acres cropping said he was to small sold up to the neighbor 25k acres

Edit 2 desal 3rd on the way

I guess that's why our water is pricey

 

[IFocus]

I guess that's why our water is pricey

I imagine a big part of it, ground water makes up about 36% (hard to believe we still have any) so pumping / treatment costs would add a little more.

The real cost of wasting water is power and chemicals water doesn't actually leave the system.

 

[IFocus]

Further to my mention of surfing forecasters one of the better ones Craig Brokensha (surfers pay for his forecasts) over on Swellnet talks about the coming forecast and also note the link to his explanation re the colder weather.

Craig is an avid surfer, snow boarder, photographer and all round adventureist.

Get Your MJO On | Swellnet Analysis | Swellnet

www.swellnet.com

Why So Cold? | Swellnet Analysis | Swellnet

www.swellnet.com

 

[mullokintyre]

Further to my mention of surfing forecasters one of the better ones Craig Brokensha (surfers pay for his forecasts) over on Swellnet talks about the coming forecast and also note the link to his explanation re the colder weather.

Craig is an avid surfer, snow boarder, photographer and all round adventureist.

Get Your MJO On | Swellnet Analysis | Swellnet

www.swellnet.com

Why So Cold? | Swellnet Analysis | Swellnet

www.swellnet.com

And there in lies the problem.
Craig may be a great surfer, snowboarder photographer and all round adventurist, but what credence can we give his views?
When we are constantly urged to listen to "The Science"(TM), what does he offer in that respect?
When one of the most influential figures in Climate Alarmism, the teenager Greta Thunberg, has not even finished high school, much less taken any undergraduate studies in the subject, it shows why so many people are skeptical about so many of these constantly more alarming forecasts. Flannery technically has no climate science quals, he is a paleantologist and mammalogist, but is diametrically opposed to another Geologist , Ian Plimmer.
Both could be wrong, but it is unlikely both are right.
People on both sides of the debate will pick and choose which to believe, but thats the way the world works.
Mick

 

[basilio]

And there in lies the problem.
Craig may be a great surfer, snowboarder photographer and all round adventurist, but what credence can we give his views?
When we are constantly urged to listen to "The Science"(TM), what does he offer in that respect?
When one of the most influential figures in Climate Alarmism, the teenager Greta Thunberg, has not even finished high school, much less taken any undergraduate studies in the subject, it shows why so many people are skeptical about so many of these constantly more alarming forecasts. Flannery technically has no climate science quals, he is a paleantologist and mammalogist, but is diametrically opposed to another Geologist , Ian Plimmer.
Both could be wrong, but it is unlikely both are right.
People on both sides of the debate will pick and choose which to believe, but thats the way the world works.
Mick

Excellent point Mull. In fact Greta Thunberg echoes your sentiments. She never claims listen to me. It is always hear the climate scientists. And yes you can attempt to balance whatever you want by offsetting Ian Plimmer and Tim Flannery.

What you won't change is the physical reality of a rapidly warming climate. The melting of the ice caps. The record temperatures and out of control fires in Siberia, far north Canada and the Arctic Circle.

And when your looking for scientists who somehow deny human caused CC or question its impact there just isn't anywhere near the tens of thousands of climate scientists who will demonstrate what is happening and where we are going. And it is not something happening in the future any more.

Climate Change - NASA Science

NASA is a global leader in studying Earth’s changing climate.

climate.nasa.gov

 

[Sean K]

Someone got paid to do this study.

 

[IFocus]

And there in lies the problem.
Craig may be a great surfer, snowboarder photographer and all round adventurist, but what credence can we give his views?
When we are constantly urged to listen to "The Science"(TM), what does he offer in that respect?
When one of the most influential figures in Climate Alarmism, the teenager Greta Thunberg, has not even finished high school, much less taken any undergraduate studies in the subject, it shows why so many people are skeptical about so many of these constantly more alarming forecasts. Flannery technically has no climate science quals, he is a paleantologist and mammalogist, but is diametrically opposed to another Geologist , Ian Plimmer.
Both could be wrong, but it is unlikely both are right.
People on both sides of the debate will pick and choose which to believe, but thats the way the world works.
Mick

The 1st rule of science to to avoid belief (actually best to avoid full stop for most things and save it for religion)

My mention of Craig (wasn't for climate change per say) more for anyone interested for the reasons for the colder weather, Craig gives quite a detailed summary broken down for us lesser learned beings regarding weather / climate the how's and whys if you read through his stuff its very good, honest and technical describing all the interactions. Its goes well beyond what you will see in mainstream.

Again he is forecasting weather but comments from time to time on what impact climate change may or may not be impacting.

He doesn't push climate change but I think it was him that put me onto the rate and extent of ice loss around the world there is quite a number of people looking at it and doesn't get mainstream reporting maybe because it so dire.

Craig's surfing forecasts are a paid subscription (surfers hate paying for anything so he has to be good eh) and its not all about weather.

I am to miserable so don't subscribe.

Forecasting surf requires knowledge of weather patterns and oceans behavior often a swell is made up of multiples of swells / directions / swell periods / fetch / wind directions / distance / ocean floor shape / depths / ocean temps / on and on.
The discussions onsite are very good for the bits you can see.

As for Greta and others to me its important to strip out the politics around science and climate change avoid "personalities or talking heads" look at the numbers they speak for them selves IMHO and they are not good.

 

[mullokintyre]

The 1st rule of science to to avoid belief (actually best to avoid full stop for most things and save it for religion)

My mention of Craig (wasn't for climate change per say) more for anyone interested for the reasons for the colder weather, Craig gives quite a detailed summary broken down for us lesser learned beings regarding weather / climate the how's and whys if you read through his stuff its very good, honest and technical describing all the interactions. Its goes well beyond what you will see in mainstream.

Again he is forecasting weather but comments from time to time on what impact climate change may or may not be impacting.

And I will ask again, what are his qualifications for forecasting weather?
You obviously put a lot of faith in his ability to forecast and explain weather and climate, but others who are more skeptical have similar levels of faith.
Mick