Resisting Climate Hysteria

[Sean K]

Interesting read.

Fearing a climate emergency without this being supported by data, means altering the framework of priorities with negative effects that could prove deleterious to our ability to face the challenges of the future, squandering natural and human resources in an economically difficult context, even more negative following the COVID emergency. This does not mean we should do nothing about climate change: we should work to minimize our impact on the planet and to minimize air and water pollution. Whether or not we manage to drastically curtail our carbon dioxide emissions in the coming decades, we need to reduce our vulnerability to extreme weather and climate events.

Leaving the baton to our children without burdening them with the anxiety of being in a climate emergency would allow them to face the various problems in place (energy, agricultural-food, health, etc.) with a more objective and constructive spirit, with the goal of arriving at a weighted assessment of the actions to be taken without wasting the limited resources at our disposal in costly and ineffective solutions. How the climate of the twenty-first century will play out is a topic of deep uncertainty. We need to increase our resiliency to whatever the future climate will present us.

RETRACTED ARTICLE: A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming - The European Physical Journal Plus

This article reviews recent bibliography on time series of some extreme weather events and related response indicators in order to understand whether an increase in intensity and/or frequency is detectable. The most robust global changes in climate extremes are found in yearly values of...

link.springer.com

 

[wayneL]

Snip: Results of an international study, delivered by leading scientists from the Italian Institute for Nuclear Physics in conjunction with the prestigious University of Milan, found no statistical, data-linked evidence of any kind that the earth (and we earthlings) are in the grips of a climate emergency

Trust the greenies to welcome news the world isn't ending with blind rage

In case you missed it, there was some terrific news that broke over the weekend.

www.skynews.com.au

 

[IFocus]

Interesting read.

RETRACTED ARTICLE: A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming - The European Physical Journal Plus

This article reviews recent bibliography on time series of some extreme weather events and related response indicators in order to understand whether an increase in intensity and/or frequency is detectable. The most robust global changes in climate extremes are found in yearly values of...

link.springer.com

Haven't read yet (will do) Sean but did they talk about glaciers at all?

 

[Knobby22]

Haven't read yet (will do) Sean but did they talk about glaciers at all?

Just another pathetic Newscorp rant.
Back to the real news.

Weather-related disasters increase over past 50 years, causing more damage but fewer deaths

A disaster related to a weather, climate or water hazard occurred every day on average over the past 50 years – killing 115 people and causing US$ 202 million in losses daily, according to a comprehensive new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

public.wmo.int

 

[mullokintyre]

Just another pathetic Newscorp rant.
Back to the real news.

Weather-related disasters increase over past 50 years, causing more damage but fewer deaths

A disaster related to a weather, climate or water hazard occurred every day on average over the past 50 years – killing 115 people and causing US$ 202 million in losses daily, according to a comprehensive new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

public.wmo.int

@Knobby22 , you might need to back to the original message that I focus was referring to.
It is not a a Newscorp article, indeed it has nothing to do with the evil murdoch empire.
Its a statistical analysis from the European Physical Journal.
Mick

 

[IFocus]

@Knobby22 , you might need to back to the original message that I focus was referring to.
It is not a a Newscorp article, indeed it has nothing to do with the evil murdoch empire.
Its a statistical analysis from the European Physical Journal.
Mick

Looks like the Murdock press ran extensive coverage of the article but if you have a look at it hmm... so before I read it some thing that's undeniable is the in your face glacier issue, hence the glacier question.

From the "extremist" Guardian


"authors – three Italian physicists and an agricultural meteorologist – did little original work, but instead reviewed selected papers from other scientists. This was an article, not a study.

Climate scientists told Temperature Check the work was selective and had misinterpreted the results of some studies, while leaving others out.

But why is the article getting coverage now, when it appeared in the journal in January?

It was highlighted last week in online outlets known for publishing stories promoting climate denial. One UK-based climate sceptic group, the Global Warming Policy Foundation, included the article in its Net Zero Watch newsletter."

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ate-emergency-they-werent-looking-hard-enough"

 

[mullokintyre]

The Murray Darling Basin Authority puts out a weekly report on what is happening within the basin area in term of water flows, storage levels and water allocations for the various bodies that seek water from the basin.
For the first week of each new month, usually the first paragraph is a summary of the climate for the previous month.
This weeks report starts with the following"

September 2022 summary The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) reports that for Australia as a whole in September 2022 the mean temperature was +0.69 °C warmer than the average (1961-1990). Across the Murray-Darling Basin, minimum temperatures were mostly average to above average, whilst maximum temperatures were mostly below average to very much below average (Map 1).

I have a number of questions about this statement.
1. Why is the comparison between the average temperature with a 30 year period from 1961-to 1990. One might argue that the period prior to 1961 contained not enough datapoints perhaps, but why stop at 1990? Why is that 30 year period chosen as the Average Australian temperature?
2. Secondly, why compare a mean temperature for September to an average..
The writers do not define which mean they refer to, as apart from the arithmetic mean, a dataset also has an harmonic mean and geometric mean.
The arithmetic mean of a set of numbers is the same as the average of the set of numbers, so one can only assume they are talking about the arithmetic mean. So why not use the word average? They did not use the word mean in the statement about the values from 1960 to 1990.
3. For the basin itself, which he minimum temperatures were mostly average to above average, whilst maximum temperatures were mostly below average to to very much below average, it would seem logical that the average temperature then was somewhat below average, but they do not provide how much below average.the MBA takes in a tad over 14% of the OZ land mass, so for the rest of Australia, there must have been some pretty hot places to get the average up to 0.69 above the 30 year average.

4. The concept of an average temperature is contentious.
I would suggest that if you asked a 100 Australians how the average temperature for Australia is derived, they would say that you add up all the maximum temperatures for the day, and divide it by the number of recording stations. However, if one looks at the September BOM Report , one can see that the average is actually average of the days highest and lowest temperatures. So when the BOm says that the daily, weekly or monthly temperature is 0.69 above the long term average, that result can be achieved by having a higher Max, a higher minimum, or a combination of both. if we are told that the earth is warming at rate X, one needs to ask is it because the maximum temperatures have increased, or because the minimum temperatures have increased. Either can achieve the average anomaly increase, but your average punter would see the outcome entirely differently.
Mick

 

[Knobby22]

It's historic. Old records kept were just maximum and minimum temperatures. Also on point 1 comparing to the previous 30 years is logical as though some warming had occurred the data sets are more accurate and comparison is uncontentious.

Definitely happening though.
Especially in the arctic.

Sea Ice Today

nsidc.org

 

[macca]

The Murray Darling Basin Authority puts out a weekly report on what is happening within the basin area in term of water flows, storage levels and water allocations for the various bodies that seek water from the basin.
For the first week of each new month, usually the first paragraph is a summary of the climate for the previous month.
This weeks report starts with the following"

I have a number of questions about this statement.
1. Why is the comparison between the average temperature with a 30 year period from 1961-to 1990. One might argue that the period prior to 1961 contained not enough datapoints perhaps, but why stop at 1990? Why is that 30 year period chosen as the Average Australian temperature?
2. Secondly, why compare a mean temperature for September to an average..
The writers do not define which mean they refer to, as apart from the arithmetic mean, a dataset also has an harmonic mean and geometric mean.
The arithmetic mean of a set of numbers is the same as the average of the set of numbers, so one can only assume they are talking about the arithmetic mean. So why not use the word average? They did not use the word mean in the statement about the values from 1960 to 1990.
3. For the basin itself, which he minimum temperatures were mostly average to above average, whilst maximum temperatures were mostly below average to to very much below average, it would seem logical that the average temperature then was somewhat below average, but they do not provide how much below average.the MBA takes in a tad over 14% of the OZ land mass, so for the rest of Australia, there must have been some pretty hot places to get the average up to 0.69 above the 30 year average.

4. The concept of an average temperature is contentious.
I would suggest that if you asked a 100 Australians how the average temperature for Australia is derived, they would say that you add up all the maximum temperatures for the day, and divide it by the number of recording stations. However, if one looks at the September BOM Report , one can see that the average is actually average of the days highest and lowest temperatures. So when the BOm says that the daily, weekly or monthly temperature is 0.69 above the long term average, that result can be achieved by having a higher Max, a higher minimum, or a combination of both. if we are told that the earth is warming at rate X, one needs to ask is it because the maximum temperatures have increased, or because the minimum temperatures have increased. Either can achieve the average anomaly increase, but your average punter would see the outcome entirely differently.
Mick

If we are going to compare current monthly temps to an average then the longer the average the more meaningful the comparison.

Obviously, we have the data from 61 to 90, so we should add the data from 91 to 20 and then average 60 years of data, then compare.

 

[basilio]

This source lets one compare how Australian temperatures have changed in the last 110 years. The 1961-1990 average base line bisects cooler than normal periods in the early part of the last century vs the much warmer times in the last 35 years.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries&tQ=graph%3Dtmean%26area%3Daus%26season%3D0112

 

[basilio]

This source lets one compare how Australian temperatures have changed in the last 110 years. The 1961-1990 average base line bisects cooler than normal periods in the early part of the last century vs the much warmer times in the last 35 years.

View attachment 147828

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries&tQ=graph%3Dtmean%26area%3Daus%26season%3D0112

 

[basilio]

This graph takes a broader global perspective over 170 years.

 

[basilio]

The impact of record heat waves on health is now becoming much clearer.

England recorded 2,800 excess deaths in over-65s during 2022 heatwaves​

Calls for government to take action now to prevent further unnecessary deaths next summer

...During the second heatwave, between 10 and 25 July – in which a new UK record temperature of 40.3C (104.5F) was set at Coningsby, Lincolnshire – overall excess deaths were 10.4% higher.

During the July heatwave, an extra 1,206 over-65-year-olds died – 7% more than would have been expected to based on the days surrounding the heatwave, according to the UKHSA.

The 8-17 August heatwave was the most devastating for older people, with 1,459 excess deaths (excluding Covid-19 deaths) – 15% higher than would have otherwise been expected.

England recorded 2,800 excess deaths in over-65s during 2022 heatwaves

Calls for government to take action now to prevent further unnecessary deaths next summer

www.theguardian.com

 

[Smurf1976]

I would suggest that if you asked a 100 Australians how the average temperature for Australia is derived, they would say that you add up all the maximum temperatures for the day, and divide it by the number of recording stations. However, if one looks at the September BOM Report , one can see that the average is actually average of the days highest and lowest temperatures.

I accept that's probably true but what it tells me is nothing about the climate and simply that the average Australian isn't much good at maths or science.

Nobody would sensibly try to calculate the average temperature using only maximum temperatures as the data input, especially not when it's common knowledge that minimums are also routinely recorded.

I accept that a lot of people would probably do that but it's an inherently flawed approach if the aim is to measure average temperature.

 

[moXJO]

The impact of record heat waves on health is now becoming much clearer.

England recorded 2,800 excess deaths in over-65s during 2022 heatwaves​

Calls for government to take action now to prevent further unnecessary deaths next summer

...During the second heatwave, between 10 and 25 July – in which a new UK record temperature of 40.3C (104.5F) was set at Coningsby, Lincolnshire – overall excess deaths were 10.4% higher.

During the July heatwave, an extra 1,206 over-65-year-olds died – 7% more than would have been expected to based on the days surrounding the heatwave, according to the UKHSA.

The 8-17 August heatwave was the most devastating for older people, with 1,459 excess deaths (excluding Covid-19 deaths) – 15% higher than would have otherwise been expected.

England recorded 2,800 excess deaths in over-65s during 2022 heatwaves

Calls for government to take action now to prevent further unnecessary deaths next summer

www.theguardian.com

That's covid vaccine deaths.

 

[basilio]

That's covid vaccine deaths.

Yeah of course .

I didn't know you were one of "those" Moxy ? Or is this just another one of your try ons ?

 

[moXJO]

Yeah of course .

I didn't know you were one of "those" Moxy ? Or is this just another one of your try ons ?

Hey, general has been boring without the stir.

 

[Sean K]

Breaking news:

NZ to introduce cow burp tax.

 

[moXJO]

Breaking news:

NZ to introduce cow burp tax.

I thought there was some pill that stops cows farting now?

 

[Sean K]

I thought there was some pill that stops cows farting now?

I thought they were going to use plastic bags as the capture plan. Just not sure what the storage solution was.