- Joined
- 18 June 2008
- Posts
- 1,071
- Reactions
- 2
care to expand/elaborate?
care to expand/elaborate?
- Joined
- 12 November 2007
- Posts
- 273
- Reactions
- 0
- Joined
- 12 November 2007
- Posts
- 273
- Reactions
- 0
Here is an analyst oblivious to almost everything except the sound of her own vocal cords. Oil @ $10-$30 barrel (maybe the 30 
sorry Steve u win)http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=960474937
sorry Steve u win)http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=960474937
- Joined
- 18 June 2008
- Posts
- 1,071
- Reactions
- 2
Here is an analyst oblivious to almost everything except the sound of her own vocal cords. Oil @ $10-$30 barrel (maybe the 30
It seems a bit stupid to predict oil to go that low. Has she forgotten the amount of cars in the world? or our reliance on plastic? Or that investment into alternatives has slowed?
When companies make suggestions like these, it often makes me wonder if they are saying it so all the idiots watching CNBC go out and sell oil (or hold off from buying it), so the company can buy it all up at a cheaper price
If you look at the last 5 years as being a mania not a real price increase (Not just oil but all commodities) then seeing the prices react back to 2003 levels or possibly earlier makes sense. Copper has a range for the last 80 years or so of between 55cents and $1.20 and then suddenly goes to $4.00 or so were would you expect it to go back to when the mania is over.
I guess it depends on whether it stays above $1.20 as things have changed or goes right back to it's normal range.
Only time will answer that but I would'nt be surprised to see prices back into their old range. Normally manias fully retrace or more than retrace the full extent of the rise.
If the price stays above $1.20 for Copper then deflation may not be so bad but if it goes below that then we may be in for more than a rough ride IMO
I guess it depends on whether it stays above $1.20 as things have changed or goes right back to it's normal range.
Only time will answer that but I would'nt be surprised to see prices back into their old range. Normally manias fully retrace or more than retrace the full extent of the rise.
If the price stays above $1.20 for Copper then deflation may not be so bad but if it goes below that then we may be in for more than a rough ride IMO
- Joined
- 18 June 2008
- Posts
- 1,071
- Reactions
- 2
Are those figures adjusted for inflation?
Pays to remember the long-term fundamentals and problems at times like these where the oil problem has "gone away" from the public consciousness.
I found this a good reminder:
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/allison/2008/1222.html
Oil has already dipped below $US30, albeit briefly..
I found this a good reminder:
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/allison/2008/1222.html
Oil has already dipped below $US30, albeit briefly..
Great article gfresh! I am reminded of WayneL's comment (i think) from the outliers thread where he pointed out that 1 USDoil contract is worth $1000 per dollar per barrel change! Based on that, the recent fall could have made $100k per contract, and if you look forward, there is definitely potential to make the same going back the other way! Nice trade if you get on to it
Sdajii
Sdaji
- Joined
- 13 October 2009
- Posts
- 2,065
- Reactions
- 2,049
Considering peak oil is such a critical issue, and whether it happened 18 months ago or will happen in 1-5 years, most authorities seem to agree that peak oil is right about now, it seems strange we talk about this as little as we do. Whether we're just ahead of it or just behind it isn't really all that important in context of oil's 400 or so year timeframe of being a massive part of our energy picture - we're up around the top right now.
Potentially, within a few short years or even months (probably years) it'll be clear that we've passed peak oil, which could really cause some big movement. Will we see oil prices jump and supply dry up, causing starvation and economic crisis on unimaginable levels? Will a high oil price prompt the rapid development of alternative technologies which will in turn bring about a crash in oil prices and great prosperity? Alternatively, in 5-10 years will it become clear that in the middle east there is more oil than they've let anyone know about? I'm surprised that at this point in history, with the potential for imminent dramatic events, most people don't even know what "peak oil" is.
Potentially, within a few short years or even months (probably years) it'll be clear that we've passed peak oil, which could really cause some big movement. Will we see oil prices jump and supply dry up, causing starvation and economic crisis on unimaginable levels? Will a high oil price prompt the rapid development of alternative technologies which will in turn bring about a crash in oil prices and great prosperity? Alternatively, in 5-10 years will it become clear that in the middle east there is more oil than they've let anyone know about? I'm surprised that at this point in history, with the potential for imminent dramatic events, most people don't even know what "peak oil" is.
- Joined
- 2 October 2006
- Posts
- 3,043
- Reactions
- 2
technology keeps getting better
i know of technologies that are very clever, from the oil giants own research to clever engineers.
yes there is a requirement for these technologies to help with demand, and imho some of them will eventually lead to better than 10% extraction rates
early days, and i recall a long time ago being convinced of peak oil
Sdajii
Sdaji
- Joined
- 13 October 2009
- Posts
- 2,065
- Reactions
- 2,049
So, I take it you think oil is going to last us indefinitely? (at least the next hundred years or more?)
- Joined
- 2 October 2006
- Posts
- 3,043
- Reactions
- 2
i think the potential to extract the 90% that didnt get extracted is there
i see a lot of cash going into some very clever technology, and i follow that research with interest. i think there are ways of extracting not yet contemplated by the masses.. new technology..
lets just say i enjoy science fiction, but i also admire those who invest in things that a lot of folk would think is science fiction..
i think 100 years of oil is potentially just the tip of the ice berg
- Joined
- 14 February 2005
- Posts
- 15,117
- Reactions
- 16,944
Totally agreed there. We're asleap at the wheel big time on this one.
But it's a reality that most genuinely serious events come as a complete surprise for most people.
On 1st January 2000, very few would have expected the word "terrorism" to dominate the coming decade, just as now in 2010 very few are giving oil much thought.
- Joined
- 2 October 2006
- Posts
- 3,043
- Reactions
- 2
uuummmm
peak oil was very 80's
like its not a very modern fear, its been touted for decades
i recall a peak oil sermon by a top commsec analyst at an oil conference, and post his huge peak oil tirade, the room was pretty subdued,
anyway, the next speaker, a very well respected oil legend very eloquently and politely spoke on behalf of the room and politely told him that about zero of what he just went on about was believed by any in the oil industry
lol
sorta like believing in the loch ness monster i guess..
anyway, some believe in it, and in ufo's
others see it in terms of economics and technology
early days in oil.. real early
- Joined
- 5 March 2008
- Posts
- 951
- Reactions
- 141
Agentm,
Ever heard of the boy who cried 'Wolf', one day he was right. My recollection of the oil debate at the time was of oil running out in 30 years, not about peak production.
Yet many from the oil industry claim there is not much easy oil to be had, this includes the heads of Total, Shell and Petrobas. Perhaps they don't know what they are talking about either .
Can you please show some numbers from a reputable source that confirms your statement??
brty
Ever heard of the boy who cried 'Wolf', one day he was right. My recollection of the oil debate at the time was of oil running out in 30 years, not about peak production.
Yet many from the oil industry claim there is not much easy oil to be had, this includes the heads of Total, Shell and Petrobas. Perhaps they don't know what they are talking about either
.Can you please show some numbers from a reputable source that confirms your statement??
brty
- Joined
- 15 January 2008
- Posts
- 691
- Reactions
- 1
When you say 10% are you talking about only being able to extract 10% from each reservoir, or are you talking about 10% of the existing global oil that includes the super massive fields down to the multitude of little 100 barrel (and less) pockets that must sit all through oil fields. Do you have any links to information on this?
That tar sands are able to be exploited, that oil exploration is now occurring in +1km deep waters, that people are considering oil shales and that the POO is back up around the $80 mark to me means that something isn't going too right at the moment.
- Joined
- 5 March 2008
- Posts
- 951
- Reactions
- 141
As an addition Agentm, the following from..CNBC
That does not quite mesh with your assertion of...
brty
That does not quite mesh with your assertion of...
brty
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
- Joined
- 8 August 2006
- Posts
- 8,428
- Reactions
- 284
During everyday namby pamby life, most people have no idea what that amount of oil consumption is so I checked the i'net for some figures and BP had a table to work with using year 2009 estimates.
According to BP, and one would hope the figures aren't fudged, the daily world oil consumption estimate is ...
1) Total World = 84,077,000 barrels of oil per day. (84 million)
Now another of BPs' tables has a figure for world proven oil reserves ...
2) Total World Proven Oil Reserves = 1,333,100,000,000 barrels. (1.333 trillion)
So if we divide the number of Proven by the number Consumed we have a very rough estimate of how many days left of proven oil.
1,333,100,000,000 / 84,077,000
= 15855 days approximately
= 43 years approximately
DO NOT PANIC
- Joined
- 15 January 2008
- Posts
- 691
- Reactions
- 1
If you look at the gross numbers it looks like a big number divided by a small number.
When you have a look at what the numbers are made up of the big number gets a bit wobbly.
Of the 1300 billion bbl (Gbbl) we have:
267 Gbbl from Saudi, who being from OPEC have production rates based on reserve size and who haven't had any reserve reductions from 1988 from when they conveniently increased their reserves by 50% overnight.
179 Gbbl in Canada, largely in the form of Tar sands.
138 Gbbl in Iran, with an unexplained 30% increase in reserves in 2002.
104 Gbbl in Kuwait, 40% inc in reserves in 1983.
98 Gbbl in United Arab Emirates, with a 300% increase in reserves in 1986.
All in all there is an estimated 300 Gbbl of sudden OPEC reserve revisions, all unexplained. You can argue that that still leaves 1000 Gbbl which is still a very big number. Well have a look at the following figure to see what types of oil makes up the global reserve figure. All of a sudden the amount of easy oil doesn't look so good and that amount is likely quite bogus too. We haven't got 43 years of easy oil left.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves#Proved_reserves
comprehensive BP energy review 2009: http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_int...l_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2009.xls
Attachments
If the numbers are correct and there is 40 odd years of oil left, I wonder how long it will take before production slows as older fields start reducing output in their declining years...
add to that the "westernising" of China, India etc. then that 43 years may arrive much quicker.
Saudi Arabia has probably reached peak oil already, they supply roughly 25% of the worlds oil supply, the Ghawar oil field which is the largest oil field in the world has only an estimated 70 billion barrels of oil left.
They are bringing on line new MEGA fields but are deeper and harder to extract, as will probably be the case everywhere else in the world.
Oil will be around for centuries but will be scarcer and MEGA expensive IMO.
Supply will struggle to keep up with demand.
Oil will literally be " Black GOLD ".
add to that the "westernising" of China, India etc. then that 43 years may arrive much quicker.
Saudi Arabia has probably reached peak oil already, they supply roughly 25% of the worlds oil supply, the Ghawar oil field which is the largest oil field in the world has only an estimated 70 billion barrels of oil left.
They are bringing on line new MEGA fields but are deeper and harder to extract, as will probably be the case everywhere else in the world.
Oil will be around for centuries but will be scarcer and MEGA expensive IMO.
Supply will struggle to keep up with demand.
Oil will literally be " Black GOLD ".
Similar threads
- Poll
