Peak Oil

[jonojpsg]

I think we just have to go all out for major solar arrays linked to H2 production. The Crash Course points out that H2 is basically a storage option and not a viable energy source as such but he also points out that solar gives quite a good surplus energy return, and that in tandem with H2 production would put us in a good position.

Tas Uni has a dedicated section of the engineering school committed to H2 vehicle research which have made good progress with limited resources in only a few years. If we get stuck into it, we could change over reasonably quickly.

Maybe I'll email a minister and see what they say

 

[Smurf1976]

Tas Uni has a dedicated section of the engineering school committed to H2 vehicle research which have made good progress with limited resources in only a few years. If we get stuck into it, we could change over reasonably quickly.

The University of Tasmania (UTas) / Hydro-Electric Corporation (Hydro Tasmania) research effort has achieved quite a lot with very limited funding.

It was established 4 years ago, achievements to date include:

World first hydrogen diesel engine

World first intelligent vehicle stability control system (not specifically hydrogen related)

Smart engine management system for hydrogen and petrol dual-fuel injection vehicles.

Now, if a small team in Tassie with very limited funds can actually get things like this up and running (they've already put a hydrogen car in a 2000km rally) then imagine what could be achieved with the far greater financial resources available in the other states, nationally or internationally. More here http://www.hydro.com.au/handson/students/hydrogen/unih2car.htm

Another Tassie one is the King Island wind / battery system which takes the level of wind power far above what can normally be achieved in percentage terms. That's a separate Hydro project and not part of the Utas research effort.

So a lot of technology has been demonstrated and it works. The challenge now is to do something with it on a larger scale.

 

[Happy]

I think we just have to go all out for major solar arrays linked to H2 production. The Crash Course points out that H2 is basically a storage option and not a viable energy source as such but he also points out that solar gives quite a good surplus energy return, and that in tandem with H2 production would put us in a good position.

Scale at which this system would have to be developed just makes me little bit pessimistic if it can be done in time.

In a meantime we burn so much fuel on: Daytona, Nascar, Grand prix, Bathurst and on and on, what a waist.

 

[jonojpsg]

Just emailed Martin Ferguson and David Johnstone - will let you know what response I get.

 

[CanOz]

Scale at which this system would have to be developed just makes me little bit pessimistic if it can be done in time.

In a meantime we burn so much fuel on: Daytona, Nascar, Grand prix, Bathurst and on and on, what a waist.

I reckon one 777 taking off would pretty much take care of the fuel burned at the Clipsal 500...but yes its a waste.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[nioka]

Where is the Peak Oil debate today. Has the crisis in the world economy changed the attitude to peak oil. The oil price drop will keep the thoughts off oil production unless the production is reduced to keep the price high.
There was a lot of concern weeks ago and there has probably been a fall in the known world oil supply since then. Can we go back to the V8?, can we stop thinking alternative fuels?. Maybe the price has dropped because we are moving away from the use of oil ?.

 

[CapnBirdseye]

I think it's more of a matter of when, instead of if, oil production will be reduced to restore oil to the $100 mark.

When we reach some level or stability, wherever and whatever that is.

 

[derty]

Calculation of the Peak is based on consumption vs supply, naturally if you reduce consumption you will push the peak further into the future. Though as oil is a finite resource we will encounter peak oil one day.

With the reduction of the price of oil and the resultant reduction in the fear of oil dependence it will be interesting to see if the push for alternate energy sources continues. Or will we just be back in the same place whenever we come close to the peak again?

 

[xyzedarteerf]

after watching the sort of projects that keep popping out of this place, makes it pretty clear that there NO such thing as oil running out.



under construction in Dubai, Hydropolis will be the world's first luxury underwater hotel.

It's the latest word in Gulf excess - a sprawling £800million resort boasting a £13,000-a-night suite and dolphins flown in from the South Pacific, all atop a palm tree-shaped island.




and oh yeah there seems to be no such problems here that exist in some parts in this side of the world. must be an understanding RIGHT.

 

[mayk]

I guess Dubai knows the importance of oil, the construction cost will go through the roof without oil, and any country with significant developed infrastructure will be able to sustain well in 30-40 years time?

 

[Tysonboss1]

after watching the sort of projects that keep popping out of this place, makes it pretty clear that there NO such thing as oil running out.



under construction in Dubai, Hydropolis will be the world's first luxury underwater hotel.

It's the latest word in Gulf excess - a sprawling £800million resort boasting a £13,000-a-night suite and dolphins flown in from the South Pacific, all atop a palm tree-shaped island.




and oh yeah there seems to be no such problems here that exist in some parts in this side of the world. must be an understanding RIGHT.

I don't think dubai is an oil producer,.... not much oil any way.

 

[derty]

I think Dubai knows the oil won't last forever and is setting itself up as a business and banking services centre. A bit like a middle eastern Singapore.

 

[kitehigh]

The Dubai ruling family have been forward thinkers for awhile now, they realized long ago that once their oil drys up they will have to have an alternative. I think from memory they have about 15 years worth of oil supply at current production rates.
Oil revenue now makes up less than 10% of their GDP. So they have managed to diversify away from oil to a large extent. Abu Dhabi has also decided to embark on massive infrastructure building spree although they have decades worth of oil supply

 

[Smurf1976]

Maybe the price has dropped because we are moving away from the use of oil ?.

Current thinking is that we're moving away from economy. That is, we'll have less economy in the near future than we have now (commonly known as recession). And since virtually all economic activity involves oil in some way, that means we'll need less oil.

As long as we can keep any growth in the economy below the rate of growth in the oil supply then that should keep the price down. That does, however, mean that we need to sustain negative economic growth on an ongoing basis once oil production peaks unless / until we actually put altertnatives into mainstream use.

 

[kgee]

My guess is there's a lot more out there....it's so difficult to decipher between fact fiction and fantasy when it comes to energy supply
bottom line oil/gas is still cheap
and there is still lots of room for exploration...I went to a halliburton conference last year and they stated in the US. they still drill nearly 500 exploration holes to 1 Australian
I might still be very old school but I still believe oil/gas , emphasis on gas (because no one has wanted it in the past) and uranium are still the safe bets till a better alterntive can be found

 

[chops_a_must]

bottom line oil/gas is still cheap

No it's certainly not!

It's historically at incredibly high levels.

The fact we are heading towards the biggest slow down since the depression, and oil isn't heading towards 20 bucks, ought to tell you something...

 

[Knobby22]

The other point is that the explorers will have little money to look, further increasing the shortage of oil.

 

[jonojpsg]

Let's clear up some misunderstandings here.

1. Peak oil has nothing to do with supply/demand. Peak oil is basically when the ability of the world's producers to produce oil hits its peak. This is largely a function of oil discoveries and development and has been shown to closely mirror the discovery vs production curves for individual countries and fields.

Almost every country that has reached its peak production rate was approximately 40 years after the peak discovery rate - the worlds peak discovery was around 1965 and data shows that peak crude oil production was 2005.

2. There is relatively little oil left to discover. As pointed out above, peak world oil discoveries were in 1965 and there has been little joy since in finding any super fields (>20bn barrels).

Obviously demand will have an impact on how much oil needs to be produced and therefore the price, but not on how much can be produced or how much can be discovered.

 

[basilio]

Peak Oil is now. What do we do about it ..

Some forum members have discussed the implications of a permanent decline in oil supplies. In the wider picture oil is the life blood of our current economy. In a nutshell - no blood no economy (and of course a bloody sick stock market.)

A number of oil experts have analyzed the depletion rate of the major world oil fields. I have attached a news report which overviews their findings.

Nine percent
by Richard Heinberg

The Financial Times has leaked the results of the International Energy Agency's long-awaited study of the depletion profiles of the world's 400 largest oilfields, indicating that, "Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent."

This is a stunning figure.

Considering regular crude oil only, this means that 6.825 million barrels a day of new production capacity must come on line each year just to keep up with the aggregate natural decline rate in existing oilfields. That's a new Saudi Arabia every 18 months.

The Financial Times story goes on:

The findings suggest the world will struggle to produce enough oil to make up for steep declines in existing fields, such as those in the North Sea, Russia and Alaska, and meet long-term demand. The effort will become even more acute as [oil] prices fall and investment decisions are delayed.

This is putting it mildly. Investment capital is being vaporized almost daily in a global deflationary bonfire of unprecedented ferocity. Oil production projects are being mothballed left and right.

Inter alia, the IEA takes the requisite swat at "peak oil theorists," who, the agency somehow still believes, are saying that the world is "running out of oil." Of course that's NOT what peak oil theorists say, but a correct summation of their position would have to be followed with a statement to the effect that, "Our research supports their position," which would be just too embarrassing.

Sadly, the IEA feels it must pull its punch even further. With adequate investment in new small oilfields and unconventional sources like tarsands, it insists, the world can still achieve higher levels of production. In other words, if the $12 trillion that vanished from the world stock markets last week were invested in new tarsands projects, then theoretically a few more years of total oil production growth could be eked out (not growth in net energy production, mind you, but in the gross—and I do mean gross—production of exotic, very expensive stuff that it's physically possible to run your car on, assuming you could afford to do so).

Of course, any realistic assessment either of the likelihood of that level of investment appearing, or of the ability of new projects to really produce a sufficient rate of flow regardless of the size of the cash infusion, would end merely in a hearty belly-laugh.

Evidently peeved about being scooped on its planned November 12 press conference roll-out of the study, the IEA has disavowed the Financial Times story. But if nine percent is even close to being the final figure, then it's absolutely clear: July 2008 was the all-time peak in world oil production. Don't expect anyone at the IEA to officially admit that fact until 2025 or so. But among those who pay attention to the evidence and the terms of the debate, further ink need not be spilled in speculation.

Peak oil is history.

Source http://www.energybulletin.net/node/47041


Where do we go from here?

 

[jonojpsg]

9%

Where do we go from here indeed?? I hope this thread can pick up some comments from the more seasoned posters who have been around longer than me and might have an eye for prognosticating about these sorts of things. I mean we have threads like imminent and severe market correction and house prices to keep falling for years, but it would be great to see a range of posters giving this one some serious thought, please??

FWIW I think any companies that do have oil reserves and potential to find more are obvious picks, eg OSH, BHP, WPL, and some of the smaller players that we love to post on too, CVN, NDO, AWE etc.

Also companies that are looking at alternative liquid fuels, eg ARW, liquid being the important thing here.

I still reckon there's got to be potential in setting up a renewable energy station using say those wave turbines (can't think of the company) or solar arrays or wind linked to H2 production facility.

Anyway, looking forward to hearing more.