I'm sure the energy suppliers have noticed. They'll just be hoping that you and all their other customers didn't notice...Did anyone happen to notice Natural Gas?
Please make a big noise so that energy suppliers notice before northern hemisphere winter.
Oil has finally succumbed to the speculators...
Sorry to misrepresent your quote rederob... well not really, I just couldn't resist.
On a serious note, I picked up the jist of the EW count from cycle IV and primary 1, 2, 3 & 4 from an EW site and tried to fill in the detail up to date.
I have modified my EW count a bit while attempting to back-fill the earlier waves from limited data, since I don't trade and consequently don't have specific 'Oil' software.
The question I am posing is whether we have in fact completed cycle V and maybe supercycle (I)?
Although my earlier minute wave i seems to be going lower than I first thought and the correction is yet too come... my FA and intuition says yes... OIL IS BUGGED. :hide:
July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Congress may outlaw elements of oil futures trading that lawmakers found distorted demand and contributed to the 69 percent surge in prices in the past year.
Proposals being debated this week in the Senate would bring prices more in line with demand, proponents say. Excluding the effect of speculation, oil would be around $80 a barrel, 38 percent lower than yesterday's price, according to Jesus Reyes Heroles, the chief executive officer of Petroleos Mexicanos. Critics say restrictions may interfere with the functioning of a $4 trillion annual market for crude oil.
If it was useful it might be interesting.just found this article and thought it might be of interest -
Hey Uncle,
Until then, $150.00 is within reach and the top will soon be knocked off the first of Wavepickers coldies...................
JW
Here we go again.......
Once more, trying to stir poo.
No, not at all. This was just an observation which I found uncanny yet cliche at the same time.
I completely agree with you, oil does look overdone now, as does gold, so a quick bounce may be about to occur.
the speculaters are annoying, they are a bit like concert ticket scalpers, get in early buy all the tickets and then drip feed us Oil groupies.
The oil price surly can't be maintained at higher than fair price forever though, eventually it must return to fair market price, If that fair market price is $130 then thats just what we have to pay.
Good analogy... in the end they serve no good, just currupting the 'real' market.
Strike 1:Firstly because despite all the hype about inventories steadily falling supposidly indicating a slow supply, I believe inventories were dropping because of demand destruction, people were refusing to pay that price and consume the same amount, consequently processors save some costs by holding less inventory.
Strike 2:There was no real evidence of fuel shortages despite the price.
Strike 3:Secondly, the big vehicle manufacturers in the US have undertaken to srcap larger fuel guzzling vehicles and make more small economical vehicles. The effect of this along with strong demand in the US for smaller imported vehicles and less air planes in the air is having a significant impact on US fuel consumption and could easily knock a couple of million bpd off their demand.
Finally, the world wasn't anywhere near running out of oil and there are many alternatives such as Canadas huge tar sands deposits that were profitable before $100, plus similar huge undeveloped deposits in Aus and natural gas, ethanol, electric and hybrids that are currently available that would develop exponentially and carve a huge chunk out of oil demand the longer the price stayed above $100, certainly within a couple of years.Strike 4:
Not a scintilla of evidence to support the "alternatives'" case. The ramp up period will be extensive and the supply:demand gap will increase to the point that an equilibrium will occur only when true demand destruction kicks in globally. The signs are that $140-$150 has had a rather marginal impact.
Strike 5:That's the biggest flaw with the pro high oil arguement... it does not recognise that a period of sustained $130/140 plus prices would precipitate a dramatic paradigm shift in the transport industries in particular... akin to the transition from the horse and buggy to the first piston driven motor vehicles or from steam trains to diesel then electric trains.
There is no paradigm shift. There might be later on.
Demand destruction does not equal a paradigm shift.
If there was a paradigm shift you would be plugging your car into a power point when you got home. I doubt you did!
Um... what's changed?There's a little thing that most of us do to some extent without realising that is a managerial speciality in successful large organisations... ie Change Management... that guarantees that nothing stays the same in the face of opportunity or adversity.
A dip in the oil hardly constitutes a change.
Make that Strike 6.
Lucky it's not baseball.PS: Nah, I don't think it'll change much now Jessica, the moves for an oil substitute and alternative energy have started in earnest now I think. Sorry, but I think the best you can hope for now is that you don't have to shout the carton.
The moves to alternatives gained their traction years ago.
In the meantime the US has almost 15% less crude oil in commercial inventories than a year ago.
And this is happening when demand destruction reduced consumption when oil climbed over $140????? Does not add up, does it!
Bottom line remains one of oil in undersupply and a propensity for prices to rise on every bit of bad news.
An interim saviour will be the less occasional rise in the greenback.
LOL. What a gem. Of course every dollar you put into the market is at the IPO stage or Cap raising or Venture Cap?
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