Oil price discussion and analysis

[Smurf1976]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Did anyone happen to notice Natural Gas?

Please make a big noise so that energy suppliers notice before northern hemisphere winter.

I'm sure the energy suppliers have noticed. They'll just be hoping that you and all their other customers didn't notice...

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Is that a great example of T/A?

After this, consolidated and then broke down a bit further. A run to 122.50 this week?

 

[Whiskers]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Oil has finally succumbed to the speculators...

Sorry to misrepresent your quote rederob... well not really, I just couldn't resist.

On a serious note, I picked up the jist of the EW count from cycle IV and primary 1, 2, 3 & 4 from an EW site and tried to fill in the detail up to date.

I have modified my EW count a bit while attempting to back-fill the earlier waves from limited data, since I don't trade and consequently don't have specific 'Oil' software.

The question I am posing is whether we have in fact completed cycle V and maybe supercycle (I)?

Although my earlier minute wave i seems to be going lower than I first thought and the correction is yet too come... my FA and intuition says yes... OIL IS BUGGED. :hide:

 

[michael_selway]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Sorry to misrepresent your quote rederob... well not really, I just couldn't resist.

On a serious note, I picked up the jist of the EW count from cycle IV and primary 1, 2, 3 & 4 from an EW site and tried to fill in the detail up to date.

I have modified my EW count a bit while attempting to back-fill the earlier waves from limited data, since I don't trade and consequently don't have specific 'Oil' software.

The question I am posing is whether we have in fact completed cycle V and maybe supercycle (I)?

Although my earlier minute wave i seems to be going lower than I first thought and the correction is yet too come... my FA and intuition says yes... OIL IS BUGGED. :hide:

Hey great charts, thanks

Looks like long term, oil prices will likely be alot higher?

But maybe short term just a correction?

thx

MS

 

[professor_frink]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

just found this article and thought it might be of interest -

Congress pursues $80 oil with trading limits, disclosure rules

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Congress may outlaw elements of oil futures trading that lawmakers found distorted demand and contributed to the 69 percent surge in prices in the past year.

Proposals being debated this week in the Senate would bring prices more in line with demand, proponents say. Excluding the effect of speculation, oil would be around $80 a barrel, 38 percent lower than yesterday's price, according to Jesus Reyes Heroles, the chief executive officer of Petroleos Mexicanos. Critics say restrictions may interfere with the functioning of a $4 trillion annual market for crude oil.

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

just found this article and thought it might be of interest -

If it was useful it might be interesting.
It's old news.
It's a political ploy.
It has no capacity to influence supply or demand.
It can only have impact in the USA and oil is traded globally.
There is as much chance that the proposed legislation will force prices higher. That's because speculators play both sides of the market, and once downside risk has been mitigated the tendency for an undersupplied oil market to keep climbing higher will feed on itself.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

the speculaters are annoying, they are a bit like concert ticket scalpers, get in early buy all the tickets and then drip feed us Oil groupies.

The oil price surly can't be maintained at higher than fair price forever though, eventually it must return to fair market price, If that fair market price is $130 then thats just what we have to pay.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

After a $23 drop, I think there might be a chance of a countertrend back up to the nominal or beyond here. Prices have made an excursion to the outer extremeties of the Cyclic Bands. Also looks like we may have a completed impulse here, although counting waves in the lower timeframes can be difficult. See what happens this evening

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

ha ha ha, love the drip feeding quote!

But what is 'fair value', that is the million/billion dollar question?

 

[wavepicker]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hey Uncle,


Until then, $150.00 is within reach and the top will soon be knocked off the first of Wavepickers coldies...................

JW

Hey JW,

You worked up a bit of a sweat waiting for $150 which missed by a bees d.ck.
So close but so far, don't you go getting too thirsty now will you!! Soon the shoe might be on the other foot!!

Let's see what happens in the months ahead.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

lol, the 'I told you so' statements in both gold and oil have been sure fire fade opportunities lately, both ways.

Probably no other more predictable method out there.

Interesting to see how oil does now. Volume and patterns will be great to watch, though I still get a feeling 122.50 maybe on offer before it's next bounce. So fade me!

 

[wavepicker]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Here we go again.......

Once more, trying to stir poo.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Here we go again.......

Once more, trying to stir poo.

No, not at all. This was just an observation which I found uncanny yet cliche at the same time.

I completely agree with you, oil does look overdone now, as does gold, so a quick bounce may be about to occur.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

No, not at all. This was just an observation which I found uncanny yet cliche at the same time.

I completely agree with you, oil does look overdone now, as does gold, so a quick bounce may be about to occur.

Nice to see you are so observant MRC. I hope you have as much attention to detail within your trading.....If you do you must be an outstanding trader

:

 

[JeSSica WaBBit]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Looking forward to it Wavepicker................yep, nearly got across the line but no cigar!!

It will be interesting to see if it pulls up and holds above $120.00. I am still confident we will push back up in the coming months. If for nothing else, surely the arabs have realised they can get a lot more for their oil from the west and will be reluctant to sell below $100.00? Why would you, just turn off the taps until the price rises, no need to give the stuff away.

I need those crazy folks in Iran to issue a few more senseless threats or start playing around with missles again to cause a bit of panic.

JW

 

[Whiskers]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

the speculaters are annoying, they are a bit like concert ticket scalpers, get in early buy all the tickets and then drip feed us Oil groupies.

Good analogy... in the end they serve no good, just currupting the 'real' market.

The oil price surly can't be maintained at higher than fair price forever though, eventually it must return to fair market price, If that fair market price is $130 then thats just what we have to pay.

Fair value... I nominated about $80, but it may well go below that in the not too distant future depending how fast congress enacts more new regulations and how quickly the price comes back from speculative 'manipulators' exiting the market.

Firstly because despite all the hype about inventories steadily falling supposidly indicating a slow supply, I believe inventories were dropping because of demand destruction, people were refusing to pay that price and consume the same amount, consequently processors save some costs by holding less inventory.

There was no real evidence of fuel shortages despite the price.

Secondly, the big vehicle manufacturers in the US have undertaken to srcap larger fuel guzzling vehicles and make more small economical vehicles. The effect of this along with strong demand in the US for smaller imported vehicles and less air planes in the air is having a significant impact on US fuel consumption and could easily knock a couple of million bpd off their demand.

Finally, the world wasn't anywhere near running out of oil and there are many alternatives such as Canadas huge tar sands deposits that were profitable before $100, plus similar huge undeveloped deposits in Aus and natural gas, ethanol, electric and hybrids that are currently available that would develop exponentially and carve a huge chunk out of oil demand the longer the price stayed above $100, certainly within a couple of years.

That's the biggest flaw with the pro high oil arguement... it does not recognise that a period of sustained $130/140 plus prices would precipitate a dramatic paradigm shift in the transport industries in particular... akin to the transition from the horse and buggy to the first piston driven motor vehicles or from steam trains to diesel then electric trains.

There's a little thing that most of us do to some extent without realising that is a managerial speciality in successful large organisations... ie Change Management... that guarantees that nothing stays the same in the face of opportunity or adversity.

PS: Nah, I don't think it'll change much now Jessica, the moves for an oil substitute and alternative energy have started in earnest now I think. Sorry, but I think the best you can hope for now is that you don't have to shout the carton.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Good analogy... in the end they serve no good, just currupting the 'real' market.

LOL. What a gem. Of course every dollar you put into the market is at the IPO stage or Cap raising or Venture Cap?

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Firstly because despite all the hype about inventories steadily falling supposidly indicating a slow supply, I believe inventories were dropping because of demand destruction, people were refusing to pay that price and consume the same amount, consequently processors save some costs by holding less inventory.

Strike 1:
Demand destruction leads to rising inventories.
Commercial inventories remain in the lower band of the average range, meaning it will be difficult to sustain the trend of decreasing fuel prices unless there is a corresponding inventory build.

There was no real evidence of fuel shortages despite the price.

Strike 2:
There never has been evidence of fuel shortages in this cycle

Secondly, the big vehicle manufacturers in the US have undertaken to srcap larger fuel guzzling vehicles and make more small economical vehicles. The effect of this along with strong demand in the US for smaller imported vehicles and less air planes in the air is having a significant impact on US fuel consumption and could easily knock a couple of million bpd off their demand.

Strike 3:
The impact of changeover will be many years in the making. Present "demand destruction" relates to around a 2% decline in gasoline consumption. Diesel consumption is on a rising trend this year.

Finally, the world wasn't anywhere near running out of oil and there are many alternatives such as Canadas huge tar sands deposits that were profitable before $100, plus similar huge undeveloped deposits in Aus and natural gas, ethanol, electric and hybrids that are currently available that would develop exponentially and carve a huge chunk out of oil demand the longer the price stayed above $100, certainly within a couple of years.

Strike 4:
Not a scintilla of evidence to support the "alternatives'" case. The ramp up period will be extensive and the supply:demand gap will increase to the point that an equilibrium will occur only when true demand destruction kicks in globally. The signs are that $140-$150 has had a rather marginal impact.

That's the biggest flaw with the pro high oil arguement... it does not recognise that a period of sustained $130/140 plus prices would precipitate a dramatic paradigm shift in the transport industries in particular... akin to the transition from the horse and buggy to the first piston driven motor vehicles or from steam trains to diesel then electric trains.

Strike 5:
There is no paradigm shift. There might be later on.
Demand destruction does not equal a paradigm shift.
If there was a paradigm shift you would be plugging your car into a power point when you got home. I doubt you did!

There's a little thing that most of us do to some extent without realising that is a managerial speciality in successful large organisations... ie Change Management... that guarantees that nothing stays the same in the face of opportunity or adversity.

Um... what's changed?
A dip in the oil hardly constitutes a change.
Make that Strike 6.

PS: Nah, I don't think it'll change much now Jessica, the moves for an oil substitute and alternative energy have started in earnest now I think. Sorry, but I think the best you can hope for now is that you don't have to shout the carton.

Lucky it's not baseball.
The moves to alternatives gained their traction years ago.
In the meantime the US has almost 15% less crude oil in commercial inventories than a year ago.
And this is happening when demand destruction reduced consumption when oil climbed over $140????? Does not add up, does it!
Bottom line remains one of oil in undersupply and a propensity for prices to rise on every bit of bad news.
An interim saviour will be the less occasional rise in the greenback.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

LOL. What a gem. Of course every dollar you put into the market is at the IPO stage or Cap raising or Venture Cap?

Who me!

Definately not. :

Hello 'grumpy'... you sure have a thing about 'speculators' don't you.

The context I am referring to, and I thought I had made it pretty clear by now, is that of deliberately manipulating the market for self gain... as in the above example.

Do ticket scalpers buy heaps of all events tickets? No, only the ones that they know will be in high demand that they can resell to desperate patrons. The point being that they are carrying on an illegal business in competition to genuine ticket sellers who have paid for all their busines liscenses and other overheads and also with the intent of deliberately creating an artifically high market (manipulation) for an item where the price and quantity have been regulated to a set level.

There have been many attempts to corner the markets over the years. Just recently Goldman Sacks has been mentioned as one descretely using offshore exchanges to corner the oil market.

If for example Goldmans have been heavily leveraging and manipulating the oil market up, I suppose it wouldn't do their image at home any good now if it were publically known, would it!... I suspect they would be almost run out of town and business.

I have nothing against futurers and shorters or black sheep or muslims or most things for that matter. But I do have a thing against anyone who abuses the rules to manipulate the normal/fair operation of a system/market for their self gain.

Look TH, what is there in anything I have said, bearing in mind that I'm only calling the politics and market as I see it unfolding... that reflects badly on, or suggests that I dislike, 'genuine' futures and short traders? Nothing.

If these guys that are trading the oil market have nothing to hide then for the life of me I cannot see how they could see anything wrong with bringing the margins on all exchanges whether within or outside the US up to the same level and also improving the accountability and transparency in the market to a level closer to other markets.

What could be fairer than a level playing field where everyone plays by the same rules!

For heavens sake man, your behaving a bit parinoid about this if you ask me.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Wow. your another emotional one Rederob!

Well, we'll agree to dissagree and see who's right in the end.

If your prepared to put your money where your mouth... er convictions are, let's have a slab of beer on it too.

I say it'll go below $100 before the end of the year. No chance of going above $150 this year.