Oil price discussion and analysis

[MRC & Co]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Its school holidays so i thought id decipher for the young ones reading the commodties forum.


median – a point, line, part or plane that is in the middle

I'm sure many of the young ones learnt these in school.

Median, in this instance, is the middle number occuring.

Though 'middle' is a subjective word, I think 'mean' may have been what was meant, didn't read it thoroughly.

Then again, they could have used the correlation coefficient as opposed to covariants

I'm also surprised no complex algorithms or neural networks were taken into account, looks like simple regression analysis did suffice.

ha ha, nerd forum!

 

[subaru69]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I thought that the MODE was the middle number in an ordered set...
School was a while ago though.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I thought that the MODE was the middle number in an ordered set...
School was a while ago though.

Most frequently occuring.

Add in some hocus pocus and a voodoo doll, and you may get your answer!

 

[subaru69]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

DOPE
With this level of statistical knowledge you are currently outperforming the skills of certain politicians

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Demo trade,

Shorted the hell out of Oil 30 min ago. thinking it's time to see some value shaved off.

 

[Vondelpark]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Gee App - see Eur thread......i think it will bounce. 140 has been holding firm recently and hard not to see Oil continuing its rise.

Missed the buy at 14080 level (14092 as I type) but looking to get in around 14070 to slot out at 14150 or higher on a trailing stop.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Yeh, talk about a risky trade!

140 is definately the support at the moment, any move below and a short is plausable IMO.

You would think there would be some type of correction, unless we are establishing another base to take off from. Stranger things have happened.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Anybody going long or short at this point?

Right as I type, it's having another crack at the $143 mark, but volume looks unconvincing. Perhaps a low risk small shorting opportunity..........

Unless volume comes in all of a sudden, cannot see this one breaking out tonight. No effort whatsoever ATM.

If anything, POG looks like it may be ready to try and play some catch up.

 

[bigdog]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

We should all stop flying on middle eastern airlines for increasing oil prices!

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Anybody going long or short at this point?

Right as I type, it's having another crack at the $143 mark, but volume looks unconvincing. Perhaps a low risk small shorting opportunity..........

Yet another unconvincing record high reached overnight with a record closing price - over $144 - to boot.
The shorts are in tatters..... again.

 

[Temjin]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Yet another unconvincing record high reached overnight with a record closing price - over $144 - to boot.
The shorts are in tatters..... again.

Just like the good old wisdom, the market can become illogical longer than you can stay solvent.

I am definitely not buying into oil, at least for the short term. Just look at what the current oil prices are doing to everybody right now. You have airlines going bankrupt, riots in developing countries, fuel rationing, ultra bullish sentiment amoung the general public and even practical high fuel price jokes swarming the internet blogs.

Not to mention the US Dollars is now reaching critical support (been tested at least 3 times now) and is in extremely oversold position.

I'm definitely on the sideline right now. Though I know if Israel do attack Iran, I will miss all the juicy profits.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Demo trade,

Shorted the hell out of Oil 30 min ago. thinking it's time to see some value shaved off.

Smashed to high hell! lucky it was a demo trade!

 

[drasicjazz]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

bloody hell i just got a call from flightcentre
i booked a ticket to paris for about 1600AUD on way
now they want more than 250 extra ''taxes'' they call it
that's more than 15 % increase than the month ago when i actual booked it

 

[JeSSica WaBBit]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hey Jess, you seem super bullish on oil

I for some reason have a similar view that energy prices now, will be considered very low in the next 3-5 years etc...cant cant put my house on it etc!

thx

MS

Yep, i am Bullish on oil Michael. Well, to $150.00 anyway...............but seriously, recession, depression, whatever happens, we unfortunately have built our life around the stuff and no matter what the bears say, its a finite resource and i just dont see supply keeping up with demand.

The oil might be there but it takes time to find new wells and it ill be much more costly to extract. Being more costly to extract, that needs to be passed on to the consumer and the price will go up.

Call me crazy but, i just dont agree with the bears and think there are some serious fundamentals in the bullish favour.

Throw in a bombardment of Israel, more attacks on pipe lines in Nigera, on going tensions in Iraq and the recepie is there for anything to happen.

I also think people have underestimated the demand from India and China, ever seen how big these places are?
It is mind blowing and beyond comprehesion for most people.

Further to that, the US dollar looks very shaky, further underpinning hedging in oil. Europe is increasing interest rates, to weaken the dollar again.
And one day when the good old USA does recover, guess wha, they will need even more oil. They will also begin filling their national emergency reserves also.

I dont see any surplus quality oil laying around and even with high prices demand is still there, it may have slowed a little but in the scheme of things not much.

People comnplain that oil is too expensive, but, i assure you, they can afford it and will make cuts in other areas before they stop filling the tank with fuel. It is a necessary evil, you need fuel to get to work to earn the money you need to fill the tank so you can go to work and earn more money.

Seems like a no brainer to me.

Obviosly it can not keep going up forever.

I still think your averageguy on the street can take more pain yet, no doubt about it. I filled the car a few weeks ago and had to queue behind 3 cars before i could get to the bowser.......i had to fight my way through the crowds.......they have the money to support $150.00 i would say, no worries.

Lets bring on $200.00 and see how they go. I think you would be suprised at how much people can afford, they just need to trim off a few luxuries. Dont worry, they will cut back on other things before they begin riding bikes, we are after all, a very lazy society and we have it easy.

My scooter costs me just over $5.00 a week and i ride it to work each day, the car is used by my partener and cost about $100.00 to fill the tank every two weeks. Can we afford to pay more for fuel, of course we can.

And agree with you, in 5 years time these fuel prices will seem soooo cheap.

JW $150.00 Oil, not a doubt in my mind...........

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Short term I can see a lot of signs that oil may be heading for a fall. Sentiment is way to bullish right now with even car fanatics proclaiming an imminent end to petrol. So I can see a fall is possible.

But I'm a long term investor not a trader. So if it falls then that means I can buy into oil companies at a discount to present prices. That's a good thing not bad.

 

[Broadway]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I swear Osama B.L. is sitting in a palace with a billion 'leant' to him from his friends, just mashing the BUY OIL button..... laughing at how easy it is to hurt the yanks this way.

Wonder why he didnt think of this sooner..

 

[JeSSica WaBBit]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Whoops, that should have said bombardment of Iran by Israel, damn red wine...............

Smurf, they can afford it mate, go down to any petrol station and have a look. The cars just stream in one after the other, they have the money to fill the tank. You will know when it is too expensive because they wont be fighting to get to the bowser on a Tuesday evening, i still think we have some way to go before the punters really begin to scream.

Keep an eye on Latte sales at your local coffee shop, if they can still afford them then they have the money for fuel.

JW

 

[Whiskers]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Short term I can see a lot of signs that oil may be heading for a fall. Sentiment is way to bullish right now...

I agree smurf.

From a TA perspective there are some gaps to be filled back to about $80 and there is a good prospect of an evening star forming on the weekly chart.

Fundamentally, I reckon when the US congress gets back to work next week, probably about Wednesday sounds like a good time for the POO to start it's exponentional decline back to about 80. By then there should be more news of further regulation of oil speculation.

I have a theory.

The mega hedge funds are using the POO to capitalise on the subprime confidence drop to drive down the stock markets a bit extra.

They will be wanting to short step the suckers buying into oil contracts by getting out early and back into stocks before most people wake up to what's happening.

Sorry Jess. but I think you might just get pipped before the post with your bet.

PS: Fwiw I think the really smart investers have already started retreating. I've noticed the price of Rhodium, the ultimate precious metal, came off the boil a few days ago. The POG is just hanging up because of the POO.

 

[michael_selway]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Short term I can see a lot of signs that oil may be heading for a fall. Sentiment is way to bullish right now with even car fanatics proclaiming an imminent end to petrol. So I can see a fall is possible.

But I'm a long term investor not a trader. So if it falls then that means I can buy into oil companies at a discount to present prices. That's a good thing not bad.

Its funny how you say short term, but thing is how come come its setting new highs of $146.00 today?

What do you define as short term?

Thanks

MS

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Its funny how you say short term, but thing is how come come its setting new highs of $146.00 today?

What do you define as short term?

Thanks

MS

Ummm... this might help....

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $145 a barrel to a record amid signs global demand for fuels, particularly from China, may strain supplies. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602013&sid=a9BZ55pFTT1w&refer=commodity_futures

Then you have yet another Saudi some-one-or-other claiming they *cannot* increase output enough to match demand...

Put 2+3 together and you get $145!

Simple eh?