Oil price discussion and analysis

[wayneL]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

If there is price manipulation in the oil market, I wish folks would stop blaming speculators.

If there is price manipulation IT AIN'T THE SPECULATORS DOING IT!!!

As TH alluded to earlier, this unhealthy obsession with oil speculation is duplicitous and hypocritical.

Anyone long on anything is happy if speculators push prices in their favour.

Our Mr Tysonboss who is so annoyed at speculators, is ecstatic that property speculation has pushed RE prices to economically perilous and sociologically damaging levels, because it is in his favour, yet annoyed at oil being pushed up by buyers?

If any one of us buys some two-bit tin-pot guano juice miner, we hope speculators push it from 2c to $150

Yet oil speculators are all bums?

WTF?

You're happy to be capitalists when it suits you, but scream for socialism if it costs you another $3.50 to fill up the commodore!

FFS!

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Wow. your another emotional one Rederob!

Well, we'll agree to dissagree and see who's right in the end.

Your points made little sense and were not supported by anything of substance.
I put money into oil equities long ago and have been adding to them.
As for the price of oil, my posts have clearly stated my views so I have nothing to prove.
On the other hand, if you are going to spout "alternatives" you need to have half a clue about their likely impact.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Your points made little sense and were not supported by anything of substance.

Obviously not to your satisfaction, but there are plenty with similar views.

I put money into oil equities long ago and have been adding to them.
As for the price of oil, my posts have clearly stated my views so I have nothing to prove.

Yeah, but oil equities haven't inflated to the same extent as crude and they'll still make good money with oil at $80... so you won't loose there.

On the other hand, if you are going to spout "alternatives" you need to have half a clue about their likely impact.

I agree... one needs to have more than half a clue. Half a clue is only 'on the balance of probability'.

I reckon I have three quarters of a clue... getting near 'beyound a reasonable doubt'.

So your gonna weeze out of the bet... er giving me a slab of beer eh.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

If there is price manipulation in the oil market, I wish folks would stop blaming speculators.

If there is price manipulation IT AIN'T THE SPECULATORS DOING IT!!!

As TH alluded to earlier, this unhealthy obsession with oil speculation is duplicitous and hypocritical.

Anyone long on anything is happy if speculators push prices in their favour.

Our Mr Tysonboss who is so annoyed at speculators, is ecstatic that property speculation has pushed RE prices to economically perilous and sociologically damaging levels, because it is in his favour, yet annoyed at oil being pushed up by buyers?

If any one of us buys some two-bit tin-pot guano juice miner, we hope speculators push it from 2c to $150

Yet oil speculators are all bums?

WTF?

You're happy to be capitalists when it suits you, but scream for socialism if it costs you another $3.50 to fill up the commodore!

FFS!

A counter to the above Whiskers?? :grenade:

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Obviously not to your satisfaction, but there are plenty with similar views.

Cut yourself a break and deliver something that supports your views. The fact that many people regurgitate the same crap doesn't make what they say valid.

Yeah, but oil equities haven't inflated to the same extent as crude and they'll still make good money with oil at $80... so you won't loose there.

I get reasonable dividends from my long term holdings, so the face value of the equity is not the whole story. Accordingly, the higher the oil price, the better the dividend stream.

So your gonna weeze out of the bet... er giving me a slab of beer eh.

I will bet you that oil cannot sustain a price below $100 for more than a week.
I already have a bet with Tysonboss that oil will get back to $80: Admittedly it was made well before oil went ballistic, and I thought I was in with a chance. I reckon I have no chance at that one.
I think, in the present climate, that any oil price dip under $120 is a good buying opportunity. There is reasonable - but not rock solid - support at $120, and then at $110.
At $100 there is exceptionally strong support, and this price point is where I will look at rebidding on some oil equities.

 

[AlexanderPop]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Oil is gone for mine. the top is set.

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Oil is gone for mine. the top is set.

Good to see you can read and write.
Shame about your capacity to think.

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

An example for those expecting "alternatives" to make oil obsolete anytime soon.

It took a quarter century after acknowledging the problem just to switch household heating, 14% of the electricity supply and a handfull of factories to some alternative energy source (to oil) in Tasmania.

And the alternatives ended up being hydro, wood, coal and gas - none of which are in any way revolutionary. And yes, they ended up harder to do, took longer to implement and had more side effects than most anticipated back in the 1970's. A landmark environmental battle and ending up with a valley full of smoke weren't among the intended consequences that's for sure.

So good luck with any transition that's actually difficult. Other than swapping coal power for nuclear, there really isn't anything that could be completed in less than 20 years even if we were tooled up to make the alternative fuel equipment right now.

And that's assuming we have an alternative to switch to in the first place. Tassie had plenty of wood, quite a few rivers and some coal so all that had to be done was get production going then set industry and homes up to use them. And wood heat in the home or coal in a factory boiler is, whilst less convenient, a perfectly adequate replacement for oil. All that's massively easier than replacing a billion or so cars plus aeroplanes, bus and so on with an as yet unknown alternative that's sure to be inferior to the oil it replaces.

Any switch away from oil isn't going to be easy that's for sure.

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Smurf
Points well made.
Just because there are "alternatives" doesn't make them better, or easier to adopt - again as you point out.
Unfortunately there are some rather poorly informed people that make easy off the tongue statements that get swallowed by the gullible.
Whatever "alternative" there is for vehicle transport will need to be swapped into something like 800 million units. That's not going to happen too fast.
I guess the good news will be that the "alternative" will spawn new industries and be a filip to industrial production.
Let's hope the subprime doesn't melt us down first!

 

[Tysonboss1]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Smurf and rederob,

I admit that there will be alot of challenges in the future, However I feel that the decline of oil will be slow enough to allow alternatives to take up the slack.

I think that that Lpg and natural gas will take up alot of the slack and they will be extended by more effiect technologies suchas hybrids and electric cars...

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Smurf
Unfortunately there are some rather poorly informed people that make easy off the tongue statements that get swallowed by the gullible.
Whatever "alternative" there is for vehicle transport will need to be swapped into something like 800 million units. That's not going to happen too fast.
I guess the good news will be that the "alternative" will spawn new industries and be a filip to industrial production.
Let's hope the subprime doesn't melt us down first!

Totally agreed there.

Medium term, I think natural gas is the only real alternative that can be implemented for transport. And even then it's far from ideal. But it's the only thing that even comes close in that it's compatible with most of the existing systems - engines etc. Everything else is either totally uncompatible with existing vehicles (electric) or is technically flawed in energy terms (hydrogen, biofuels).

I'm totally convinced that most people just don't get it when it comes to energy. They fail to realise that the oil, gas and electricity industries are the foundations upon which our entire modern society has been built.

I think the only way more than 1% or so of the population will ever grasp this is for a major system failure - electricity, gas or oil, to occur that shatters their world big time. All of a sudden they'll find that their job in the city, the food on their table and even that trip to the dentist just don't happen if the alternators, which they've never seen or really even thought about, stop turning. All of a sudden interest rates, inflation and traffic jams don't matter as they realise there's a far bigger problem.

As was once said to me in relation to electricity during an imminent crisis - "It's jobs. It's industry. If we cut output then people lose their jobs. People lose their houses. It's not about hot showers and keeping the lights on at home, it's about keeping a home to have lights and a shower in. If we can't meet demand, people can't meet their mortgages."

 

[Whiskers]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

A counter to the above Whiskers?? :grenade:

Gaud, you futures traders are a touchy, sensitive lot. :

For the umptheninth time, I am using 'speculators' in the loose sense of the word as opposed to the strict technical 'speculator'... the same as wayneL is when referring to the property and share market.

The fundamental difference between the oil market and us speculating as in trading on shares or property, is that the oil market is not near as uniformly, accountable and transparent... the details of which I have repeated before.

Since there has been numerous charges laid for speculative manipulation of the property and financial sectors in the US, I suspect it will only be a matter of time to see if there has been fraud, insider trading, corruption or manipulation of the oil market.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I will bet you that oil cannot sustain a price below $100 for more than a week.

Your on!

 

[Muschu]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Almost as an aside to this vigorous and interesting thread:

Can someone please point me to a site that gives a live, or very recent, tracking of the price of oil?

[That info is probably here somewhere but it's a loooonnngg thread].

Many thanks

Rick

 

[Whiskers]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Almost as an aside to this vigorous and interesting thread:

Can someone please point me to a site that gives a live, or very recent, tracking of the price of oil?

[That info is probably here somewhere but it's a loooonnngg thread].

Many thanks

Rick

There are a number Muschu, but this is one that I use quite often... because it's free and can do a bit of charting http://www.usagold.com/live.html

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Can someone please point me to a site that gives a live, or very recent, tracking of the price of oil?
Rick

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

The fundamental difference between the oil market and us speculating as in trading on shares or property, is that the oil market is not near as uniformly, accountable and transparent... the details of which I have repeated before.

Just goes to show that you haven't a clue what you are talking about. Commodities Futures have a FAR higher disclosure of holders than that of other futures markets. :burn:

Never let a fact get in the way of your biases hey Whiskers?

 

[Whiskers]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Just goes to show that you haven't a clue what you are talking about. Commodities Futures have a FAR higher disclosure of holders than that of other futures markets. :burn:

Geez TH, obviously FUTURES seems to be all you think about, consequently screwing everything out of context.

Firstly, I was specifically talking about the oil market in particular, not the commodities market in general.

Second, wayneL's comments which you asked me to respond to were in relation to property and share speculation as in "some two-bit tin-pot guano juice miner".

How many two-bit tin-pot guano juice miners do you know are available to trade futurers in!? Answer: Absolutely, bludy fat zero none.

As I have told you before, you're trying to compare apples to oranges.

Clearly trading these types of shares on the ASX is much more uniformly, accountable and transparent than the oil trading market.

Never let a fact get in the way of your biases hey Whiskers?

You really need to get out more TH to see that there is more to the real world than just futures.

Then you might more easily see the context and facts... er see the difference between apples and oranges. :

...and that :behead: your biased, out of context, sarcasm.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

LOL Whiskers again a non answer.

I am not screwing anything out of context. YOU clearly and plainly said that "the oil market is not near as uniformly, accountable and transparent" Which when compared to the ASX is Absolutely FALSE. But You haven't stated why you think this because if you did lay out the facts, first you may have to find them and secondly you would see that you are wrong.

What are the reportable requirements in the ASX?? Nothing other than above 5% holding. You do not have to declare if you are a spec or industry member, when you held then, what likely period(expiry) you hold them for.

With an Index futures which moves/manipulates equities you don't even have to declare if you are a hedger or a speculator unlike Commodities Futures.

As for getting out more.................................

 

[Whiskers]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

As I said TH, you see and relate everything to the narrow context of futures.

Love to keep ya company in a trivial nit-pickin sideshow, 'Grumpy', but I'm pretty busy in some heavy research for a few some 'speculative' little gems that are about to shine soon. Gotta go, see ya! :