Oil price discussion and analysis

[Smurf1976]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Almost as an aside to this vigorous and interesting thread:

Can someone please point me to a site that gives a live, or very recent, tracking of the price of oil?

[That info is probably here somewhere but it's a loooonnngg thread].

Many thanks

Rick

www.kitco.com is primarily a precious metals site but it does have the price of oil as well as various other financial indicators.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Well WP called the little a, b, c closer than me... as one would expect ... but it looks like it's near complete now, so... watch out belooooooow.

... and similarly for the AUD

... and on your blocks for the start of the Aus market resource stocks rally.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Well WP called the little a, b, c closer than me... as one would expect ... but it looks like it's near complete now, so... watch out belooooooow.

... and similarly for the AUD

... and on your blocks for the start of the Aus market resource stocks rally.

Darn, I painted all over a chart and forgot to post it.

Oil shot up to about 127.75 to qualify for the end of that little a, b, c.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Darn, I painted all over a chart and forgot to post it.

Oil shot up to about 127.75 to qualify for the end of that little a, b, c.

Anything goes Whiskers and it does qualify for an abc. But it also may turn into a double an abc. This scenario caught me out often when I first started using EW and so one must be aware of that. The average retrace for a wave 2 is 0.382-0.618 and at the moment we are nowhere near this. I personally was expecting 130-134, but as you say the market might be in a hurry to go down.

Will se waht early next week brings!

Cheers

 

[Sean K]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Whiskers you are saying that this is a 1 of 5 downward move?

 

[Porper]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Darn, I painted all over a chart and forgot to post it.

Oil shot up to about 127.75 to qualify for the end of that little a, b, c.

Also could quite easily be a,b,c to the wave A, more likely i.m.o.

I don't have data though so only going by your charts.

Also looking back to a larger time frame this impulse down looks more like 5 waves down to a wave A, we are now maybe in the minor degree wave a, should bounce to around 135ish for that scenario to play out.Then the final push down into wave C. to around 100 or just below.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Also could quite easily be a,b,c to the wave A, more likely i.m.o.

I don't have data though so only going by your charts.

Also looking back to a larger time frame this impulse down looks more like 5 waves down to a wave A, we are now maybe in the minor degree wave a, should bounce to around 135ish for that scenario to play out.Then the final push down into wave C. to around 100 or just below.

This another common scenario:

Assuming we are in the early stages of a major correction, as you say we have had 5 waves down, now 3 waves up as whiskers mentions, we can also move down in another 3 and make an unorthodox new low and after that have a fast move back up in an impulse(wavec) to complete an irregular flat . These are quite common in commodities and FX, but just an alternate at this stage and favour the first scenario.

We should now by Mon/Tued

Cheers

 

[wayneL]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Darn, I painted all over a chart and forgot to post it.

Oil shot up to about 127.75 to qualify for the end of that little a, b, c.

Waves i & ii not valid IMO

 

[wayneL]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Aside from the preponderance of impulses in the last 3 years, one is better off looking for corrective patterns in Commodities IMO.

BWTFDIK

 

[wavepicker]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Oil seems to be tracking the currencies traded against USD quite well on this last leg down. The EW for the euro analysis appears to be quite clear at present. The Crude alternate count (mentioned in the last post) to what whiskers mentioned appears to be playing out in the euro at present( ie an irregular flat). It's common for an upward correction to end at the span of the wave 4 on the way down or between the 0.382 and 0.618 levels marked on the chart.

Cheers

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

While Shell and Exxon Mobil hit some big profit numbers in the last quarter not much attention was paid to the fact that their production levels are declining and their reserves are not being replenished.
Given that Exxon has been responsible for 19 out of the 20 largest quarterly profits posted in the US you might think they had the clout to keep up production. Instead, output fell by 8%.

General market commentators are making much of the decreased demand for oil in the US, and the inevitable softness in economic conditions that will suppress demand for some time to come. In their willingness to promote a return of oil to $100 they forget that a key ingredient of sustainable low prices is inventory. Crude oil inventories in the US are 14% lower than a year ago so until such time there is a consistency of inventory build the likelihood of a return to high oil prices is strong.

Although us oil inventory movements are major price determinants globally, that sentiment will wane over the next few years. That's because the demand equation from emerging economies is significantly more important than what's happening in the US presently, and that equation is increasingly in favour of developments in those emerging economies.

I note that recent posts are focusing on EW and not fundamentals. Apart from supply and demand factors on the fundamentals front, a significant proportion of oil's recent price decline can be attributed to a short term strengthening of the greenback. The greenback does not have a chance in hades of recovering from the mess its in over the next few years, while in the short term its strong cycle is nearing an end. So there is a good chance that near term the price of oil will be as much influenced by speculators hedging oil against the dollar as any other factors.

Finally, the "premiums" attributed to oil through geopolitical tensions have been discounted recently and could easily return with Iran being targeted by the UN for harsher sanctions. And the hurricane season has kicked off in the Gulf of Mexico to add one final ingredient to upside risk.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Whiskers you are saying that this is a 1 of 5 downward move?

Gees, a long day yesterday and I messed up my scribblings on that chart. Obviously that red 1 should be the 2 and going down to 3 ... thats a minor count kennas.

I'm trying to adopt to a standard EW count code. Attached is a chart from earlier where I picked up on the primary 5 leg. The count from cycle IV, I got from an EW site... not sure about the earlier count. I just tried to see how they arrived at there count and if anyone could confirm it.

Anything goes Whiskers and it does qualify for an abc. But it also may turn into a double an abc. This scenario caught me out often when I first started using EW and so one must be aware of that. The average retrace for a wave 2 is 0.382-0.618 and at the moment we are nowhere near this. I personally was expecting 130-134, but as you say the market might be in a hurry to go down.

Will se waht early next week brings!

Cheers

Yeah your right WP. I should have pasted my legend on it, but ultimately combining my FA with what I'm picking up with EW, as Porper says, it should be part of a correction... I think a major corrective cycle .

Waves i & ii not valid IMO

If your right, that would make this abc minute wave iv... which probably fits better (come to think about it) with my FA, in that it's not near low enough yet for any substantial support or reversal.

I just feel that it's not gonna beat last night's high again... as WP mentions the way the currencies are turning, I'm confident from a FA point of view that we have reached a critical turning point in the world economy this last week or so.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Gees, a long day yesterday and I messed up my scribblings on that chart. Obviously that red 1 should be the 2 and going down to 3 ... thats a minor count kennas.

I'm trying to adopt to a standard EW count code. Attached is a chart from earlier where I picked up on the primary 5 leg. The count from cycle IV, I got from an EW site... not sure about the earlier count. I just tried to see how they arrived at there count and if anyone could confirm it.



Yeah your right WP. I should have pasted my legend on it, but ultimately combining my FA with what I'm picking up with EW, as Porper says, it should be part of a correction... I think a major corrective cycle .



If your right, that would make this abc minute wave iv... which probably fits better (come to think about it) with my FA, in that it's not near low enough yet for any substantial support or reversal.

I just feel that it's not gonna beat last night's high again... as WP mentions the way the currencies are turning, I'm confident from a FA point of view that we have reached a critical turning point in the world economy this last week or so.

Good chart Whiskers. I have the same count as this, and quite interestingly the span of the previous(blue wave) ranges from 55-75. As corrections often find support at these ranges I have used it as a basis for a (min downside target) which spurred my little wager with Jessica Wabbit.

Cheers

 

[Muschu]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

www.kitco.com is primarily a precious metals site but it does have the price of oil as well as various other financial indicators.

Many thanks Smurf. I use kitco to check base metal prices and went back to the site to find an oil link but was unsuccessful. Further tuterage welcome!
I appeciate your response.

Oil seems something of a dictactor. How can it be charted [not saying it can't be] when there are "factors" like Iran in the air?

Rick

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Many thanks Smurf. I use kitco to check base metal prices and went back to the site to find an oil link but was unsuccessful. Further tuterage welcome!

Oil price is quoted on the main page in the "indicators" box along with the DJIA, Nasdaq etc. About two thirds of the way down on the right hand side.

 

[Muschu]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Oil price is quoted on the main page in the "indicators" box along with the DJIA, Nasdaq etc. About two thirds of the way down on the right hand side.

Your exceptional intelligence is very transparent [thanks mate]

 

[wayneL]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Oil seems something of a dictactor. How can it be charted [not saying it can't be] when there are "factors" like Iran in the air?

Rick

Same way anything is charted.

Why can't it be charted?

 

[Sean K]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Same way anything is charted.

Why can't it be charted?

I think this is the argument from the non chartists, in that black swan events, or any swan close to black, will blow TA out of the water. Like a 9/11, or Israel nuking Iran, or aliens landing in Utah.

But as WP says, if you had this information before hand, then you couldn't trade it.

So, charts rule.




One thing that is very interesting right now, is that the 'fundamentals' of gold and the 'technicals' are diverging quite significantly.

The technicals are saying plunge, while the funnies are saying up, up and away.....

Someone will win the prize.

 

[Muschu]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Same way anything is charted.

Why can't it be charted?

Didn't say it can't be. Of course it can.

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

One thing that is very interesting right now, is that the 'fundamentals' of gold and the 'technicals' are diverging quite significantly.

The technicals are saying plunge, while the funnies are saying up, up and away.....

Thought this was an oil thread?

Anyway, as a long term investor I still believe the fundamentals in the long term (5+ years) are pointing strongly up for oil. That assumes, of course, that the wheels don't completely fall off the economy and there's still an ongoing trend towards more cars on the road (globally) etc. Unless there's a massive oil discovery real soon or a major economy collapses then it's rising demand without rising production. That ought to lead to higher prices.

Short term though I'm leaning toward the plunge notion somewhat. Anything's possible but markets are made at the margin and a proper global recession would create a temporary glut of oil, quite likely leading to a temporary price plunge.

How low? Anyone's guess. Depends on the broader economy IMO.