Not Buying - Not Selling - Waiting

[Smurf1976]

depends on what YOU call recession

Personally I see it as an occurrence which has the "look and feel" of a recession and the last time we really had that in Australia was the 1990's. Most visible signs = business failures, mass unemployment and a general sense of doom and gloom.

Back to the market, well if you were to take a list of the ASX300 or any other fixed list of stocks that wasn't picked specifically based on recent price action, and then went through them one by one and had a quick look at a chart, well there's an awful lot which have seen serious declines from the peak. It's not hard to find something that's massively down, 50%+, from a peak sometime generally 6 - 12 months ago.

This isn't a market where just randomly picking stocks, or even a basket of them, will work.

 

[JohnDe]

Senior public servant warns of 'significant' falls on asset markets

Australian Office of Financial Management CEO Rob Nicholl says a decade of record-low interest rates and money-printing programs across the world is coming to an end and the impact will be major.

www.abc.net.au

With the little market spurtr recently, I was thinking that maybe my 3 to 6 month outlook could be shortened to 1 to 3 months.
Nah, will leave it at the former.
Just the cat bouncing off a balcony on the way down..?

There are some that have dropped below their true value and worth picking up.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

There are some that have dropped below their true value and worth picking up.

3.50pm -3.59 pm beckons.

gg

 

[wayneL]

3.50pm -3.59 pm beckons.

gg

Post 3:59 is what's important.

My thesis is looking out to October (in a traditionalist view)

I will either be a freaking genius or, lamenting missed opportunities.

 

[KevinBB]

Well .. that was a sell-off and a half during the auction ...

 

[UMike]

Crazy Stuff.

 

[frugal.rock]

There are some that have dropped below their true value and worth picking up.

Well, season me with a sprinkle of 'em?

Too busy working like a squirrel elsewhere. Cheers

 

[JohnDe]

Well, season me with a sprinkle of 'em?

Too busy working like a squirrel elsewhere. Cheers

DDR is one.

TGR was another but I think that one may have sailed, but worth a look. Same with IFM.

RAC for a speculative, or even a trader.

 

[peter2]

Is this "buy the crap " day ?
Is the buying in any/all the BNPL stocks, poorly performing retail DSK, KGN, neobank DOU, crappy fin tech IOU, TYR, EML, even Nuix (!) a sign that investing gamblers are willing to take on more risk? Surely this would indicate that the market is near a bottom.

I'd rather see quality large caps going higher before the crap is bought as a sign of a bottom. Banks, CSL are sneaking higher as well while the resources are being hammered down.

One heck of a crazy market at the moment. Buyer beware.

Edit: Perhaps these buyers are smoking something because many pot stocks are also going up.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Is this "buy the crap " day ?
Is the buying in any/all the BNPL stocks, poorly performing retail DSK, KGN, neobank DOU, crappy fin tech IOU, TYR, EML, even Nuix (!) a sign that investing gamblers are willing to take on more risk? Surely this would indicate that the market is near a bottom.

I'd rather see quality large caps going higher before the crap is bought as a sign of a bottom. Banks, CSL are sneaking higher as well while the resources are being hammered down.

One heck of a crazy market at the moment. Buyer beware.

Edit: Perhaps these buyers are smoking something because many pot stocks are also going up.

So true @peter2

I should inform you that my tip in the comp, GIB, went up to 12th place, quite close to your ELE now, on turnover of $540.00 ( Five hundred and forty dollars and nil cents ) having gained 12.5%.

gg

 

[JohnDe]

Is this "buy the crap " day ?
Is the buying in any/all the BNPL stocks, poorly performing retail DSK, KGN, neobank DOU, crappy fin tech IOU, TYR, EML, even Nuix (!) a sign that investing gamblers are willing to take on more risk? Surely this would indicate that the market is near a bottom.

I'd rather see quality large caps going higher before the crap is bought as a sign of a bottom. Banks, CSL are sneaking higher as well while the resources are being hammered down.

One heck of a crazy market at the moment. Buyer beware.

Edit: Perhaps these buyers are smoking something because many pot stocks are also going up.

Yes, buying today wasn't really an option. Selling could have been, for some.

RAC up $0.340 (15.74%)

 

[Belli]

As the distributions for a couple of ETF's are locked in and due on 18 June, I already know what to do and have done it. Nothing more to do except wait for some LIC's to report. No point wondering what they will advise as that's already been determined and I cannot change it. Plod on.

 

[Gretsch]

In hindsight it would have been an opportunity to sell 6 months ago because the gains would have trumped the paltry dividends being paid this year, but still waiting to see what else pays what, especially managed funds.

 

[Rabbithop]

No point of regretting. There are still time to cut lesser loss on the Up days till the Fat Lady Boom Bang Crash..oops Clash concert at end of the year. Only my opinion, Ups 3 steps down 5 steps, up 5 steps, down 10 steps n up 10 steps down 20 steps so is it still a good day?

 

[Gretsch]

Time will tell.

 

[divs4ever]

In hindsight it would have been an opportunity to sell 6 months ago because the gains would have trumped the paltry dividends being paid this year, but still waiting to see what else pays what, especially managed funds.

the divs. by and large have been OK for me ( so far ) would i have been better taking the capital gains ??

taking the cash and running for the sidelines isn't my usual game , so without other reasons to sell i never really considered that option this year

 

[Belli]

paltry dividends being paid this year,

As my dividend/distribution income for last FY is up by close to 12% compared with the previous FY, I don't believe the word "paltry" is appropriate. How did that happen? Well, 10,000 shares x $0.30c is greater than 1,000 shares x $0.30c when it comes to dividends. Some of my recent purchases were at a price less than what I have paid previously but greater than some other times before that. Buy, then walk away and don't look until next time you have funds to invest is my approach.

As for CG there was probably none to negative but I don't have any spreadsheets or whatever to track that stuff. I outsource all the stress and worry about that to others such as those on this forum. If they are doing it on my behalf I see no need to.

As to hindsight and acting on the past (which you cannot do) tell me the future of the market in say 10 years time. Six months is a blip when applied to investing as opposed to speculating.

Just my view.

 

[Rabbithop]

As my dividend/distribution income for last FY is up by close to 12% compared with the previous FY, I don't believe the word "paltry" is appropriate. How did that happen? Well, 10,000 shares x $0.30c is greater than 1,000 shares x $0.30c when it comes to dividends. Some of my recent purchases were at a price less than what I have paid previously but greater than some other times before that. Buy, then walk away and don't look until next time you have funds to invest is my approach.

As for CG there was probably none to negative but I don't have any spreadsheets or whatever to track that stuff. I outsource all the stress and worry about that to others such as those on this forum. If they are doing it on my behalf I see no need to.

As to hindsight and acting on the past (which you cannot do) tell me the future of the market in say 10 years time. Six months is a blip when applied to investing as opposed to speculating.

Just my view

As my dividend/distribution income for last FY is up by close to 12% compared with the previous FY, I don't believe the word "paltry" is appropriate. How did that happen? Well, 10,000 shares x $0.30c is greater than 1,000 shares x $0.30c when it comes to dividends. Some of my recent purchases were at a price less than what I have paid previously but greater than some other times before that. Buy, then walk away and don't look until next time you have funds to invest is my approach.

As for CG there was probably none to negative but I don't have any spreadsheets or whatever to track that stuff. I outsource all the stress and worry about that to others such as those on this forum. If they are doing it on my behalf I see no need to.

As to hindsight and acting on the past (which you cannot do) tell me the future of the market in say 10 years time. Six months is a blip when applied to investing as opposed to speculating.

Just my view.

Appreciate your view. My views are..
1.Share Market is an Investment Game playing, you can become rich to live in a mansion or poor sleeping on the park bench. Worse scenario, jump off the cliff or hung on the high beam.
2. Depending on your age grp, have the time (20 to 40 yrs) for market to turn around or a limited time to Dementia world.
3. What's own Financial Capability and dream Goal.

Your 1st paragraph sounds ok..when and if that stock still pays a same div payout (TLS fixed div payment will revises 3yrs/ 5yrs) I stand to be corrected. This is a stock that I hold on T1 with DRP when company permits it.
T2 n T3 are example that there is stock that one cannot afford to place it at the bottom of the drawer. Having posted this comment there are stocks that can achieve great result..come to mind is CBA, MQG these couple of stocks are just off my head examples.

Your last paragraph shown me you are Bright.
Be Humble...Thankful that you have Forum to Dump your worries and Members to Wake you up.

 

[Belli]

Your 1st paragraph sounds ok..when and if that stock still pays a same div payout (TLS fixed div payment will revises 3yrs/ 5yrs) I stand to be corrected. This is a stock that I hold on T1 with DRP when company permits it.
T2 n T3 are example that there is stock that one cannot afford to place it at the bottom of the drawer. Having posted this comment there are stocks that can achieve great result..come to mind is CBA, MQG these couple of stocks are just off my head examples.

I should clarify, apart from SOL held outside of the SMSF, both the SMSF and I personally only invest via a few LICs and two ETFs. As of late funds are directed towards the ETFs. As a result of that, I generally don't follow individual shares at all. If one is mentioned on here and I am sufficiently curious - doesn't happen often - I will read some of the annual reports but that is the extent of it.

SOL is an aberration which I originally purchased many, many moons ago thinking it was actually an LIC. The only recent addition to it was in 2020 during the mini-meltdown when I was about to place some surplus funds and spotted its then price. It really doesn't fit my approach and I probably shouldn't hold it but does provide some nice travel money late in the FY (Hi there, FNQ) and at Christmas.

 

[divs4ever]

SOL is an aberration which I originally purchased many, many moons ago thinking it was actually an LIC.

SOL , SVW, WES and GOW follow a similar strategy , and i would argue they are still a LIC ( a listed investment company ) not just exclusively holding bonds and shares ,