this one might but when they give the interest rates another kick up the freckle I think there is more downside risk atm
Looking at Buying
- Thread starter Garpal Gumnut
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Ukraine ending is about the only possible immediate positive catalyst that may hit within the next 6 months. Or not....
Yellen thinks because US bank accounts have a buffer, that recession isn't inevitable. Maybe not yet, but inflation will tear that buffer away. Then what?
My thoughts are waiting another 3 to 6 months, to see how deep in the poo we really are...
I heard the tripe that the US "market" thinks our market is cheap.
If it's true, it will show up in data eventually. Bums on hands.
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does she quote a source ?? or is she using the FDIC as a stage prop
i hear anecdotal data that says a scary number of US citizens have less than one month's cash reserves ( and i assume outstanding debt not currently due )
in fact many are living from pay-check to pay-check , now in Australia that is not really bad ( in my social circles ) but in a credit-addicted society ??
and if Ms Yellen is thinking of those Basel III buffers ( which Australian banks regularly test for and pass comfortably ) MAYBE she should go back a few months ( about a year ) and re-read the relaxation of lending standards implemented to add 'liquidity ' to the US economy
*** Everyone panicking isn’t a catalyst ***
it can be , everyone panicking in the same direction is called a stampede , and that can change a lot ( and when they are panicked and ANGRY that is called a riot )
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compared to theirs ( where capital gains is prized over income ) possibly
( how would our market look without franking credits ? )
there are tiny pockets of value even on the ASX today
Value Collector
Have courage, and be kind.
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There is also an improvement of supply chains by China ending lockdowns, and also the possibility that the tariffs on Chinese goods may end.
Oil, I've noticed of late has been coming down, so that may put an end to fears that inflation will be everlasting perhaps. Consumer staples gone sideways a bit from what I can see, and iron ore not going anywhere lately..........looks like the 'flight to safety' taking a breather. Somehow, real estate which is believed to be worse with high interest rates aren't that much affected, from what I can see (am I wrong?)
I took a bite into a bank yesterday ( left an order and was filled when I got in) My goldies have gone pear shaped since I lost the plot on Friday. Was too distracted with friend's arrival for departure...........the trip went pear shaped too, with airline cancellation and friend impulsively cancelled hire car when they rang asking where we were (we rang and no answers prior so left numerous messages but no one heard them apparently) Inflation they say, but no hire cars to be found on Saturday, and this is Brisbane...........and xxxxx wanted an arm and a leg........Any way, folks, happy investing/ trading and take care of yourselves, xx
I took a bite into a bank yesterday ( left an order and was filled when I got in) My goldies have gone pear shaped since I lost the plot on Friday. Was too distracted with friend's arrival for departure...........the trip went pear shaped too, with airline cancellation and friend impulsively cancelled hire car when they rang asking where we were (we rang and no answers prior so left numerous messages but no one heard them apparently) Inflation they say, but no hire cars to be found on Saturday, and this is Brisbane...........and xxxxx wanted an arm and a leg........Any way, folks, happy investing/ trading and take care of yourselves, xx
Dona Ferentes
A little bit OC⚡DC
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Somehow the 3:57 stayed in my memory, and I've been looking for a place to put the following. Just as information. But first, we're unlikely to have 40% overnight, either way. Too much self-balancing going on. If it did drop that amount it would be gave over. A total of 20% is regarded as a bear market, and the sum of days or weeks of price action. Even 10% in a day is rare.
Looking at the other point, we are generally in this as retail bunnies, small players upon whom is bestowed both advantage (nimble) and disadvantage (being overwhelmed). No matter what our conviction, the sheer weight of money is what moves things. As you, gg, and many others have observed, the closing at 4:10pm is where the volume is. I found this, in the AFR and a bit of a puff piece supplied by Barclays and rejigged to look like investigative substance, but this bit of the article does contain some information this is useful.
There’s alpha in ETFs' distortion of markets
A [quantitative] strategy involves taking advantage of the anomalies in the US equity market from the flood of money into passive investment vehicles including exchange-traded funds and index funds, which now exceed the funds managed in active equity funds.In 2020, the assets under management in index funds hit $US5 trillion, which is about 16 per cent of the total US equity market capitalisation.
The analysis found that because passive funds have an incentive to minimise tracking errors, the rise in their importance has led to changes in the intraday trading volume dynamics.
This has led to a shift in the diurnal pattern of trading volumes, consistent with the tendency of passive funds to trade around the close to minimise tracking error. This has changed trading patterns and led to “intraday return predictability”.
Barclays says the predictability of late surges in trading activity caused by ETFs and index funds opens opportunities for “sizeable economic gains”....
.................. Whether that helps in trying to put your chips on the table or not, is moot. Volume is one of the few ways to beat the 'bots that operate during trading hours. Having a live screen, Iress or similar, would be beneficial in observing the two sides.
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Are you gaming me?
?
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have sometimes taken advantage of those shifts lobbing 'dream bids ' near the close and testing out the after-market auction ( and lowering the order ready for the next day's trading , after the market is closed )
don't forget those 'active' ETFs working their magic ( or dastardly deeds ) sometimes they need to quickly shift from one stock to another if the mandate requires it ( say if FMG was to become an acknowledged 'green stock ' or AGL is back to 'a dirty fossil fuel player ' )
I had started...