PERSPECTIVE!!
Yesterday you bought a stock which rose 5c in $1.30
Today you discard a stock which has risen 18c in $7.50
The ratio in todays move in SEK is LESS than yesterdays move in MAH?
This move is likely to be well above 18c!!!
i find it hard to calculate a point where the run may be exhausted. I just let them go for as long as possible, pyramiding into the winners on the
We all have different styles and there are many ways of trading many different charts.
My way will not suit everyone and my way is often ways in different discrtionary setups.
But the basic premise of low risk decient R/R remains,in my trading.
Oh but it doesn't. You just don't realise it. Charting is self-fullfilling and also corruptive. If it wasn't it wouldn't have the tendency to work as it does regardless of style.
Snake I see T/A more as analysis of crowd behaviour.
And as crowd behaviour (particularly big crowds) is predictable and can be seen as cyclic as well as repetitive---this is why analysis will have a tendancy to be "self" fulfilling.
Entry for SEK in this case for me would be $7.63 any where below that has been met with supply.
hard to calculate to the spot in advance , easier to identify when the move
being followed would be better left for a new opportunity ( rather than a loose stop taking You out with unknown timing - Active exit is an active entry.... Think about it ! )
rotation of opportunity means that better results might be obtained by following the best plays at the moment..
More than this ,at bottom are correct principles that are the same
Some Know why what they do works. Some don't
Like building bridges all different types but unless they have sound principles
They all fall down ..
Points, the crowd is not homogeneous but is heterogeneous.
The crowd varies in those "three factors" ( The tools of manipulation )
Price ....Paid ( Big difference in being in profit or in loss )
Time...... Intended holding periods
Information... The rationale..
The crowd has a natural life cycle
What part of the cycle are you looking to identify
When the crowd has confluence
When time price and information of a majority of participants intersects
and creates a juncture... forced moves unfold...
OK a few good examples thrown up by tech
So a quick look ..
have a look at SEK
compared to QBE
Where is the defining bar on SEK ?
28th mar..
Make that your compass
And High degree of clarity becomes apparent
This range looks very different to QBE
How much supply ?
I would say not that much
Sure, enough to turn it back
But only because the buyers allowed it too..
As much lack of demand has too much supply
early in that life cycle buyers make the play without much competition
The defining bar and subsequent responses
suggest accumulation
The swings are fishing expeditions
They test supply and find less and less of it
The swings are narrow ( narrow swings strongly suggest supply is not an issue, again compare to QBE)
There appears here a real readiness to move
Lat 5 bars
display strength
and quite good "ease of movement"
The point of support has been moving higher
We have readiness to move
on the end of a range strongly suggestive of accumulation
( good comparison again to QBE )
Foundation for a good move being laid
( after the followers get onboard)
Question on scanning somewhere ?
responses reveal the technical position
So We need to look for strong responses
One of the best is action relative to the market
We had a strong Day today
What was at the leading edge of the action
What lagged behind
What went in the other direction
rotation of sectors and stocks
means rotation of opportunity
The mkt itself is saying
Get on and get off..
Those who are in control of time price and information
make the market
Everyone else is following
better to not be last in line..
motorway
Sek looks like it could turn into a winner.
I am about to look it up and maybe take a play on it if meets to the requirements I have.
Cheers for the lead!
This trade is right out of duchy's hand book wonder if he has spotted it!
Nizar, further to your questions on profit targets and R/R...
I have done nothing with this until now. Then tonite i had the "ahhh ha" moment.
I really don't know what R/R that i should expect. But lets say that 2:1 is the minimum for discussion purposes at this very moment.
I'll post a chart to discuss.....SEK.
Heres the profit target, say 1.42....fibb 261.8...and consistant with other monthly moves...
So i've got this horrible R/R of 1.09:1
So clearly makes the trade unworthy of the risk....i'll post the chart and my speadsheet...i hope i've done this right....oh well its only paper hey!
Cheers,
I think being able to analyse trading ranges
is very important...
That critical juncture where a stock or market gets itself into the position
of a forced move is built out of the action in a trading range..
A lot of things are being brought into being
and a lot of things are taking shape and becoming clearer..
( the "real" fundamentals that matter for example )
I think You should always look for ranges
They signal the start and end of moves
sometimes that means looking at a different time frame to the one of the trend You are following ( And that is what We want to do follow trends )
A trend meets new dynamics
A range is formed
At first the range will tend to have wider swings
"turbulence" and a lack of clarity..
But sooner or later ( and maybe better measured in swings than time )
Noise washes out.. And I believe with practice based on sound principle
the chart will reveal intent...
On a P&F chart for example an old term for the backing and filling of sideways congestion was the "work"... it was where the work that generated the next chapter of action was built...
Now... unless all has become clear...We should have patience and wait.
Wait for the fruit to ripen and drop...
OST
22may new dynamic after prices had gaped OST ran into supply and more circumspect demand .Wide range bars are always a significant sign
22may had a poor close and a series of bars with lower highs falling away to a sharpish reaction... The depth of this reaction is not so large and yes on that
25th demand is seen to be back over comimg the supply..
The 7th of June is a worry... The headway made on this rally is very poor
it just makes a new high .. But supply comes in and drives the price down poor close on a very large range bar.... Demand and supply are not meeting..
yes look at the volume , But also look at the range... narrow range down bars
suggest demand meeting the supply
large range bars suggest supply is having to reach to find demand.. Sure there is volume
But If supply reaches down low enough some demand will be found ( Is it smart ? If you are extending in order to reach Me I would step back and let you FALL )
At the top of the rallies are some small range bars ( supply meeting demand )
that lead to those larger range down bars..
the last rally falls short on lower volume and larger range bars follow
with too much volume .. The recent bars (6 or 7 of them ) look weak
look like supply .
the overall pattern ( don't be fixed on just bars bars can be 1, 2, 3 ,5 or 10 day bars they can be what ever you want a bar to be )
looks to have a rounding over appearance
I see danger , I see ( If looking to go long ) No clarity
I see weakness when comparing to the mkt esp the action from the last high.
If this range is going to be accumulation
I think there is more "work" to be done before We get a nice juncture formed
Of course Tomorrow might change -----> everything !
There appears to be too much supply
and little to suggest that the buying is in any effective way smart
This range is hardly formed ..
My observations
motorway
comments are purely for discussion
The point I'm making above ---and most gloss over it.
Is that the real money doesn't come from the ANALYSIS.
(1) Correct position sizing (Best possible)
(2) Correct Leverage
(3) Intelligent pyramiding.
(4) Capitalising Profits (Re investing).
Nizar.
SEK isnt out of its range yet.
One has more bang for your buck than the other.
One has classic range and Volume analysis.
Neither appeal NOW.
CUO did and should have been purchased on breakout yesterday.
Seems I'm a little fussier than most!
What is it that you think I'm fussier about?
The analysis?
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