I agree with this as well. To me it just confirms the strength of the break, I am much more comfortable with this then if it had just poked its head over $7.65 to have a look. Imo it now has more chance of staying above the $7.60 - $7.65 resistance area.
My open book trading plan - Two month test
- Thread starter CanOz
- Start date
I agree with this as well. To me it just confirms the strength of the break, I am much more comfortable with this then if it had just poked its head over $7.65 to have a look. Imo it now has more chance of staying above the $7.60 - $7.65 resistance area.
hard to calculate to the spot in advance , easier to identify when the move
being followed would be better left for a new opportunity ( rather than a loose stop taking You out with unknown timing - Active exit is an active entry.... Think about it ! )
rotation of opportunity means that better results might be obtained by following the best plays at the moment..
More than this ,at bottom are correct principles that are the same
Some Know why what they do works. Some don't
Like building bridges all different types but unless they have sound principles
They all fall down ..
Points, the crowd is not homogeneous but is heterogeneous.
The crowd varies in those "three factors" ( The tools of manipulation )
Price ....Paid ( Big difference in being in profit or in loss )
Time...... Intended holding periods
Information... The rationale..
The crowd has a natural life cycle
What part of the cycle are you looking to identify
When the crowd has confluence
When time price and information of a majority of participants intersects
and creates a juncture... forced moves unfold...
OK a few good examples thrown up by tech
So a quick look ..
have a look at SEK
compared to QBE
Where is the defining bar on SEK ?
28th mar..
Make that your compass
And High degree of clarity becomes apparent
This range looks very different to QBE
How much supply ?
I would say not that much
Sure, enough to turn it back
But only because the buyers allowed it too..
As much lack of demand has too much supply
early in that life cycle buyers make the play without much competition
The defining bar and subsequent responses
suggest accumulation
The swings are fishing expeditions
They test supply and find less and less of it
The swings are narrow ( narrow swings strongly suggest supply is not an issue, again compare to QBE)
There appears here a real readiness to move
Lat 5 bars
display strength
and quite good "ease of movement"
The point of support has been moving higher
We have readiness to move
on the end of a range strongly suggestive of accumulation
( good comparison again to QBE )
Foundation for a good move being laid
( after the followers get onboard)
Question on scanning somewhere ?
responses reveal the technical position
So We need to look for strong responses
One of the best is action relative to the market
We had a strong Day today
What was at the leading edge of the action
What lagged behind
What went in the other direction
rotation of sectors and stocks
means rotation of opportunity
The mkt itself is saying
Get on and get off..
Those who are in control of time price and information
make the market
Everyone else is following
better to not be last in line..
motorway
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
Thanks for that M.Way.
The first thing i do after my data download every nite, is to review the sectors....Good advice.
Cheers,
Motorway.
Some great advice there.
I agree timely sector rotation can be very profitable.
Since beginning of May, i found myself holding mainly oilers or stocks in the oil & gas sector. Not on purpose, but all the stocks breaking up was in this sector!
Some great advice there.
I agree timely sector rotation can be very profitable.
Since beginning of May, i found myself holding mainly oilers or stocks in the oil & gas sector. Not on purpose, but all the stocks breaking up was in this sector!
Its been posted up on Dutchys thread a while ago TI.
MW, thanks for the last post, got alot of good points out of it re the SEK & QBE charts.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
Nizar, further to your questions on profit targets and R/R...
I have done nothing with this until now. Then tonite i had the "ahhh ha" moment.
I really don't know what R/R that i should expect. But lets say that 2:1 is the minimum for discussion purposes at this very moment.
I'll post a chart to discuss.....SEK.
Heres the profit target, say 1.42....fibb 261.8...and consistant with other monthly moves...
So i've got this horrible R/R of 1.09:1
So clearly makes the trade unworthy of the risk....i'll post the chart and my speadsheet...i hope i've done this right....oh well its only paper hey!
Cheers,
I have done nothing with this until now. Then tonite i had the "ahhh ha" moment.
I really don't know what R/R that i should expect. But lets say that 2:1 is the minimum for discussion purposes at this very moment.
I'll post a chart to discuss.....SEK.
Heres the profit target, say 1.42....fibb 261.8...and consistant with other monthly moves...
So i've got this horrible R/R of 1.09:1
So clearly makes the trade unworthy of the risk....i'll post the chart and my speadsheet...i hope i've done this right....oh well its only paper hey!
Cheers,
Attachments
Cana, here's one (OST) you might be interested in for your longer term watchlist(really just using that as an excuse to post it so I can ask Motorway and others some questions, lol).
MW, can I ask your thoughts on this stock (just following on from your last post on SEK & QBE).
I've circled (in green) the candles from May 25 & June 8, ultra high vol days and closing well off the lows and then the sp moving back up towards the top of the range on lower vol, is this what you mean by buyers making the play without much competition? This looks to me like accumulation vol coming in at the bottom and with vol drying up near the top of the range.
Blue circles - tight range days & low vol - supply drying up? With buyers not willing to push prices higher yet? The only high vol day at the top of the range is the green candle from the 21st of June with the next few days being sold down on lower vol, is this a test of the resistance or something else I'm missing?
I hope I make sense.
MW, can I ask your thoughts on this stock (just following on from your last post on SEK & QBE).
I've circled (in green) the candles from May 25 & June 8, ultra high vol days and closing well off the lows and then the sp moving back up towards the top of the range on lower vol, is this what you mean by buyers making the play without much competition? This looks to me like accumulation vol coming in at the bottom and with vol drying up near the top of the range.
Blue circles - tight range days & low vol - supply drying up? With buyers not willing to push prices higher yet? The only high vol day at the top of the range is the green candle from the 21st of June with the next few days being sold down on lower vol, is this a test of the resistance or something else I'm missing?
I hope I make sense.
Attachments
Nizar, further to your questions on profit targets and R/R...
I have done nothing with this until now. Then tonite i had the "ahhh ha" moment.
I really don't know what R/R that i should expect. But lets say that 2:1 is the minimum for discussion purposes at this very moment.
I'll post a chart to discuss.....SEK.
Heres the profit target, say 1.42....fibb 261.8...and consistant with other monthly moves...
So i've got this horrible R/R of 1.09:1
So clearly makes the trade unworthy of the risk....i'll post the chart and my speadsheet...i hope i've done this right....oh well its only paper hey!
Cheers,
Yes, i guess R/R of 1.09 does make it unworthy of a trade.
I usually dont use fib no's to determine profit targets but if its consistant with other monthly moves then i guess your reasoning is sound.
Sounds like you are talking about MAH though.
Have you got a profit target at all for SEK?
I will buy an initial position in SEK tomorrow. Buy the opening price (probably $7.80-ish). Initial stop will be $7.50.
I think from here it will do one of two things:
1/ Run like a champion.
2/ Have a low volume pullback over 1-3 days but not close below $7.60 before bouncing and then running like a champion.
If it doesnt do 1 or 2, well thats what my stop is there for.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
First target is 8.50 ish, 2nd and the 261.8% ext is 9.30 ish.
I actually took a real position in this today at 7.75...which gives me a R/R of 1.4:1 on the 161%, and a secondary R/R of 3.2:1
My stop is just below the apex at 7.26.
I could be, and probably am way off the mark with this Nizar...i'm sure someone will come along and set me straight...
Funny that i've not come across alot of this in my reading..must go back through all those books.
Cheers,
I actually took a real position in this today at 7.75...which gives me a R/R of 1.4:1 on the 161%, and a secondary R/R of 3.2:1
My stop is just below the apex at 7.26.
I could be, and probably am way off the mark with this Nizar...i'm sure someone will come along and set me straight...
Funny that i've not come across alot of this in my reading..must go back through all those books.
Cheers,
Attachments
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
I think being able to analyse trading ranges
is very important...
That critical juncture where a stock or market gets itself into the position
of a forced move is built out of the action in a trading range..
A lot of things are being brought into being
and a lot of things are taking shape and becoming clearer..
( the "real" fundamentals that matter for example )
I think You should always look for ranges
They signal the start and end of moves
sometimes that means looking at a different time frame to the one of the trend You are following ( And that is what We want to do follow trends )
A trend meets new dynamics
A range is formed
At first the range will tend to have wider swings
"turbulence" and a lack of clarity..
But sooner or later ( and maybe better measured in swings than time )
Noise washes out.. And I believe with practice based on sound principle
the chart will reveal intent...
On a P&F chart for example an old term for the backing and filling of sideways congestion was the "work"... it was where the work that generated the next chapter of action was built...
Now... unless all has become clear...We should have patience and wait.
Wait for the fruit to ripen and drop...
OST
22may new dynamic after prices had gaped OST ran into supply and more circumspect demand .Wide range bars are always a significant sign
22may had a poor close and a series of bars with lower highs falling away to a sharpish reaction... The depth of this reaction is not so large and yes on that
25th demand is seen to be back over comimg the supply..
The 7th of June is a worry... The headway made on this rally is very poor
it just makes a new high .. But supply comes in and drives the price down poor close on a very large range bar.... Demand and supply are not meeting..
yes look at the volume , But also look at the range... narrow range down bars
suggest demand meeting the supply
large range bars suggest supply is having to reach to find demand.. Sure there is volume
But If supply reaches down low enough some demand will be found ( Is it smart ? If you are extending in order to reach Me I would step back and let you FALL )
At the top of the rallies are some small range bars ( supply meeting demand )
that lead to those larger range down bars..
the last rally falls short on lower volume and larger range bars follow
with too much volume .. The recent bars (6 or 7 of them ) look weak
look like supply .
the overall pattern ( don't be fixed on just bars bars can be 1, 2, 3 ,5 or 10 day bars they can be what ever you want a bar to be )
looks to have a rounding over appearance
I see danger , I see ( If looking to go long ) No clarity
I see weakness when comparing to the mkt esp the action from the last high.
If this range is going to be accumulation
I think there is more "work" to be done before We get a nice juncture formed
Of course Tomorrow might change -----> everything !
There appears to be too much supply
and little to suggest that the buying is in any effective way smart
This range is hardly formed ..
My observations
motorway
comments are purely for discussion
is very important...
That critical juncture where a stock or market gets itself into the position
of a forced move is built out of the action in a trading range..
A lot of things are being brought into being
and a lot of things are taking shape and becoming clearer..
( the "real" fundamentals that matter for example )
I think You should always look for ranges
They signal the start and end of moves
sometimes that means looking at a different time frame to the one of the trend You are following ( And that is what We want to do follow trends )
A trend meets new dynamics
A range is formed
At first the range will tend to have wider swings
"turbulence" and a lack of clarity..
But sooner or later ( and maybe better measured in swings than time )
Noise washes out.. And I believe with practice based on sound principle
the chart will reveal intent...
On a P&F chart for example an old term for the backing and filling of sideways congestion was the "work"... it was where the work that generated the next chapter of action was built...
Now... unless all has become clear...We should have patience and wait.
Wait for the fruit to ripen and drop...
OST
22may new dynamic after prices had gaped OST ran into supply and more circumspect demand .Wide range bars are always a significant sign
22may had a poor close and a series of bars with lower highs falling away to a sharpish reaction... The depth of this reaction is not so large and yes on that
25th demand is seen to be back over comimg the supply..
The 7th of June is a worry... The headway made on this rally is very poor
it just makes a new high .. But supply comes in and drives the price down poor close on a very large range bar.... Demand and supply are not meeting..
yes look at the volume , But also look at the range... narrow range down bars
suggest demand meeting the supply
large range bars suggest supply is having to reach to find demand.. Sure there is volume
But If supply reaches down low enough some demand will be found ( Is it smart ? If you are extending in order to reach Me I would step back and let you FALL )
At the top of the rallies are some small range bars ( supply meeting demand )
that lead to those larger range down bars..
the last rally falls short on lower volume and larger range bars follow
with too much volume .. The recent bars (6 or 7 of them ) look weak
look like supply .
the overall pattern ( don't be fixed on just bars bars can be 1, 2, 3 ,5 or 10 day bars they can be what ever you want a bar to be )
looks to have a rounding over appearance
I see danger , I see ( If looking to go long ) No clarity
I see weakness when comparing to the mkt esp the action from the last high.
If this range is going to be accumulation
I think there is more "work" to be done before We get a nice juncture formed
Of course Tomorrow might change -----> everything !
There appears to be too much supply
and little to suggest that the buying is in any effective way smart
This range is hardly formed ..
My observations
motorway
comments are purely for discussion
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
- Joined
- 17 August 2006
- Posts
- 7,756
- Reactions
- 8,355
I think being able to analyse trading ranges
is very important...
That critical juncture where a stock or market gets itself into the position
of a forced move is built out of the action in a trading range..
A lot of things are being brought into being
and a lot of things are taking shape and becoming clearer..
( the "real" fundamentals that matter for example )
I think You should always look for ranges
They signal the start and end of moves
sometimes that means looking at a different time frame to the one of the trend You are following ( And that is what We want to do follow trends )
A trend meets new dynamics
A range is formed
At first the range will tend to have wider swings
"turbulence" and a lack of clarity..
But sooner or later ( and maybe better measured in swings than time )
Noise washes out.. And I believe with practice based on sound principle
the chart will reveal intent...
On a P&F chart for example an old term for the backing and filling of sideways congestion was the "work"... it was where the work that generated the next chapter of action was built...
Now... unless all has become clear...We should have patience and wait.
Wait for the fruit to ripen and drop...
OST
22may new dynamic after prices had gaped OST ran into supply and more circumspect demand .Wide range bars are always a significant sign
22may had a poor close and a series of bars with lower highs falling away to a sharpish reaction... The depth of this reaction is not so large and yes on that
25th demand is seen to be back over comimg the supply..
The 7th of June is a worry... The headway made on this rally is very poor
it just makes a new high .. But supply comes in and drives the price down poor close on a very large range bar.... Demand and supply are not meeting..
yes look at the volume , But also look at the range... narrow range down bars
suggest demand meeting the supply
large range bars suggest supply is having to reach to find demand.. Sure there is volume
But If supply reaches down low enough some demand will be found ( Is it smart ? If you are extending in order to reach Me I would step back and let you FALL )
At the top of the rallies are some small range bars ( supply meeting demand )
that lead to those larger range down bars..
the last rally falls short on lower volume and larger range bars follow
with too much volume .. The recent bars (6 or 7 of them ) look weak
look like supply .
the overall pattern ( don't be fixed on just bars bars can be 1, 2, 3 ,5 or 10 day bars they can be what ever you want a bar to be )
looks to have a rounding over appearance
I see danger , I see ( If looking to go long ) No clarity
I see weakness when comparing to the mkt esp the action from the last high.
If this range is going to be accumulation
I think there is more "work" to be done before We get a nice juncture formed
Of course Tomorrow might change -----> everything !
There appears to be too much supply
and little to suggest that the buying is in any effective way smart
This range is hardly formed ..
My observations
motorway
comments are purely for discussion
Brilliant as always M/W!!!
Great thread here guys. Well done "CAN" for initiating it, and excellent advice/comments from all others ............... I suspect many (like me) are just floating about in the wings learning some valuable stuff from the more knowledeable folk around here ............... Cheers.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,409
- Reactions
- 6,345
Snake
In bold so people can see I'm addressing them.
If there are a few I'm speaking to in a reply it may get lost in the wording.
CanOz
I think the importance and impact of stop placement and R/R has been glossed over by many here.
The difference to your bottomline can be amazing.
I thought then that the importance of thinking in terms of R/Ratios can be demonstated in the chart attached.
In the Blue is my trade and the resultant R/R.Your R/R (Yes you bought at 1.34 But I have 1.33) is in RED
So remember I have
(1) More shares
(2) Same Risk
(3) Much higher R/R.
So at $1.50 (Potentially) I will have a return of 3 X risk where as you'll have 1 X Risk.
My 3 x R/R will be 6 times as much as your return simply due to my placement of stop and my taking of the trade at the earliest possible time allowing me a larger parcel size.
In bold so people can see I'm addressing them.
If there are a few I'm speaking to in a reply it may get lost in the wording.
CanOz
I think the importance and impact of stop placement and R/R has been glossed over by many here.
The difference to your bottomline can be amazing.
I thought then that the importance of thinking in terms of R/Ratios can be demonstated in the chart attached.
In the Blue is my trade and the resultant R/R.Your R/R (Yes you bought at 1.34 But I have 1.33) is in RED
So remember I have
(1) More shares
(2) Same Risk
(3) Much higher R/R.
So at $1.50 (Potentially) I will have a return of 3 X risk where as you'll have 1 X Risk.
My 3 x R/R will be 6 times as much as your return simply due to my placement of stop and my taking of the trade at the earliest possible time allowing me a larger parcel size.
Attachments
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,409
- Reactions
- 6,345
The point I'm making above ---and most gloss over it.
Is that the real money doesn't come from the ANALYSIS.
(1) Correct position sizing (Best possible)
(2) Correct Leverage
(3) Intelligent pyramiding.
(4) Capitalising Profits (Re investing).
Is that the real money doesn't come from the ANALYSIS.
(1) Correct position sizing (Best possible)
(2) Correct Leverage
(3) Intelligent pyramiding.
(4) Capitalising Profits (Re investing).
Tech.
Would you take SEK or CUO as trades at this point in time?
I suspect yes but if no then why not.
Is there one you prefer over the other?
Where would initial stop placement be in your opinion?
I think both are goers.
For me, (end of day) stop for SEK would be at $7.44. Worst case scenario to the upside i think would be a low volume pullback to the $7.45-$7.60 region over 1-3 days before going again.
For CUO, i think ideal (end of day) stop can be placed at 78.5c. You would want this bouncing off 79-80c on any pullback, this should become support since there was significant resistance at these levels on the way up.
Im taking SEK as a real trade, CUO i will watch with interest. The reason is, i think SEK has more upside because the consolidation (range trading) was longer. 4 months as opposed to about 2 weeks. Is this a valid reason? Obviously many on here have seen these patterns more often than me.
Thanks.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,409
- Reactions
- 6,345
Nizar.
SEK isnt out of its range yet.
One has more bang for your buck than the other.
One has classic range and Volume analysis.
Neither appeal NOW.
CUO did and should have been purchased on breakout yesterday.
Seems I'm a little fussier than most!
What is it that you think I'm fussier about?
The analysis?
SEK isnt out of its range yet.
One has more bang for your buck than the other.
One has classic range and Volume analysis.
Neither appeal NOW.
CUO did and should have been purchased on breakout yesterday.
Seems I'm a little fussier than most!
What is it that you think I'm fussier about?
The analysis?
tech/a.
How about for somebody who takes a longer term view and trades end of day?
Would such a person, in your opinion, discard CUO?
Or is it still a goer?
Notice how there was only 7mins between 80.5 and 84c. Lowest you could have got it after that was 83c.
You're fussier? Thats great -- it means your more selective.
Why? Perhaps because of your 12yrs experience
Mine is much less.
The main difference here is the projected R/R.
As i said before i never do this. Perhaps its because i dont have the software or knowledge to do so. Or perhaps its because i dont know how far a stock is going to run.
With your projections, such as those on MAH. Has this methodology of working out price targets been used in the past with a reasonable rate of accuracy?
If so -- then id be keen to know how you work these out. Id appreciate if you could point out any software and/or books.
Coz when i (first) bought MPO at 10.5 and it went to, currently 31c, i had no idea it would get this far. Same with ESG at 38c. But its a bullmarket after all, so maybe i just got lucky
