MND - Monadelphous Group
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Re: MND - Monadelphous
so anyone else sell this at 17.50ish on monday like i did and are kicking themselves now? i thought there would be a bit of resistance there as it had tested it twice already in the space of a few weeks, and with a 7% rally on the day i thought it might ease off a bit on tues to profit taking, so i sold near the close on monday. didn't think there'd be two 7%+ days in a row. ouch.
happy with the entry - bought in early july at 15.30ish after seeing it bounce off there in may, and 17.50 was my target. left a fair bit of money on the table though, as it turns out.
seems to have been well supported thru 2012 at around the 19 level before breaking to the downside this may. support turned resistance? the 180 day EMA is also not too far away from that level. of course some spectacular numbers coming out next week could easily be a strong enough catalyst for it to blast thru those levels. pity this thing doesn't have any options, otherwise around mid-july i might have looked to a july-aug call calendar maybe struck at 17.50 to capture the earnings event with the back leg. anyone got any thoughts on where to from here? obviously much hinges on next weeks announcement.
so anyone else sell this at 17.50ish on monday like i did and are kicking themselves now? i thought there would be a bit of resistance there as it had tested it twice already in the space of a few weeks, and with a 7% rally on the day i thought it might ease off a bit on tues to profit taking, so i sold near the close on monday. didn't think there'd be two 7%+ days in a row. ouch.
happy with the entry - bought in early july at 15.30ish after seeing it bounce off there in may, and 17.50 was my target. left a fair bit of money on the table though, as it turns out.
seems to have been well supported thru 2012 at around the 19 level before breaking to the downside this may. support turned resistance? the 180 day EMA is also not too far away from that level. of course some spectacular numbers coming out next week could easily be a strong enough catalyst for it to blast thru those levels. pity this thing doesn't have any options, otherwise around mid-july i might have looked to a july-aug call calendar maybe struck at 17.50 to capture the earnings event with the back leg. anyone got any thoughts on where to from here? obviously much hinges on next weeks announcement.
Country Lad
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Re: MND - Monadelphous
It is interesting to see many of the mining services companies doing well at the moment. It would appear that many have been oversold and the reporting season is expected to show they are actually doing a bit better than most expected.
Cheers
Country Lad
It is interesting to see many of the mining services companies doing well at the moment. It would appear that many have been oversold and the reporting season is expected to show they are actually doing a bit better than most expected.
Cheers
Country Lad
McCoy Pauley
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Re: MND - Monadelphous
It was a big bounce yesterday, which MND seems to be consolidating (down only slightly today, the last time I checked). I suspect it's a combination of a jump in the spot iron ore price and Bradken's result which had no downside surprises lifting all boats in the mining services sector. MND reports next Tuesday, I believe.
It was a big bounce yesterday, which MND seems to be consolidating (down only slightly today, the last time I checked). I suspect it's a combination of a jump in the spot iron ore price and Bradken's result which had no downside surprises lifting all boats in the mining services sector. MND reports next Tuesday, I believe.
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Re: MND - Monadelphous
Looking interesting on the weekly. Up to 50% on FIB and sitting on the neckline of an H&S pattern.
Looking interesting on the weekly. Up to 50% on FIB and sitting on the neckline of an H&S pattern.
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Re: MND - Monadelphous
not too keen to chase MND into earnings after what happened today. CBA, CSL, LEI all rallied strongly leading into the profit announcement so expectations might have gotten a tad lofty, and even though they turned in some solid numbers (well, at least CBA and CSL did, LEI was kinda ok i suppose), they all more or less got hammered post-announcement. could it be a similar scenario here? although MND would have to have a much smaller shareholder base than those three so one would have to wonder whether how much of its big moves could be attributed to insiders buying it up ahead of the announcement.
so i think i'll stay on the sidelines as far as MND is concerned leading into next week's profit report, and if it comes out with spectacular numbers, so be it. i captured the gain i was looking for when i entered the position... no point continuing to
over selling on monday
not too keen to chase MND into earnings after what happened today. CBA, CSL, LEI all rallied strongly leading into the profit announcement so expectations might have gotten a tad lofty, and even though they turned in some solid numbers (well, at least CBA and CSL did, LEI was kinda ok i suppose), they all more or less got hammered post-announcement. could it be a similar scenario here? although MND would have to have a much smaller shareholder base than those three so one would have to wonder whether how much of its big moves could be attributed to insiders buying it up ahead of the announcement.
so i think i'll stay on the sidelines as far as MND is concerned leading into next week's profit report, and if it comes out with spectacular numbers, so be it. i captured the gain i was looking for when i entered the position... no point continuing to
over selling on monday- Joined
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Re: MND - Monadelphous
FGE is one that has shot up again to around 5.00.
I bought back in at 4.20 after selling out early in the year for mid 6 's.
I expect it will also report strongly and over deliver.
FGE is one that has shot up again to around 5.00.
I bought back in at 4.20 after selling out early in the year for mid 6 's.
I expect it will also report strongly and over deliver.
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Re: MND - Monadelphous
you did very well on that trade. i also have FGE on my books right now at a tick over 4, i bought at 4 last year but then sold at 4.50 in dec as soon as it hit the 180 day EMA, thinking that because it bounced off the 180 day EMA in aug, it could do so again. and again was left for a while after watching it rally to mid 6s. so this time around when it broke 180 day EMA a few days ago, i have held on. let's hope it comes out with some great numbers. can't seem to find it in intelligent investor's reporting dates list though, you know when the earnings announcement is out?
you did very well on that trade. i also have FGE on my books right now at a tick over 4, i bought at 4 last year but then sold at 4.50 in dec as soon as it hit the 180 day EMA, thinking that because it bounced off the 180 day EMA in aug, it could do so again. and again was left
for a while after watching it rally to mid 6s. so this time around when it broke 180 day EMA a few days ago, i have held on. let's hope it comes out with some great numbers. can't seem to find it in intelligent investor's reporting dates list though, you know when the earnings announcement is out?
skc
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Re: MND - Monadelphous
LEI has it's own cash flow issues and that's probably the main reason for the fall.
MND was heavily shorted and so probably some short covering into the results, esp after DOW and BKN reported soundly and without negative outlooks. According to ASIC short position reports, on 8 Aug MND had 12.4% outstanding shorts. Would be interesting to see how much was covered in the 3 day rally earlier this week.
not too keen to chase MND into earnings after what happened today. CBA, CSL, LEI all rallied strongly leading into the profit announcement so expectations might have gotten a tad lofty, and even though they turned in some solid numbers (well, at least CBA and CSL did, LEI was kinda ok i suppose), they all more or less got hammered post-announcement. could it be a similar scenario here? although MND would have to have a much smaller shareholder base than those three so one would have to wonder whether how much of its big moves could be attributed to insiders buying it up ahead of the announcement.
so i think i'll stay on the sidelines as far as MND is concerned leading into next week's profit report, and if it comes out with spectacular numbers, so be it. i captured the gain i was looking for when i entered the position... no point continuing to
LEI has it's own cash flow issues and that's probably the main reason for the fall.
MND was heavily shorted and so probably some short covering into the results, esp after DOW and BKN reported soundly and without negative outlooks. According to ASIC short position reports, on 8 Aug MND had 12.4% outstanding shorts. Would be interesting to see how much was covered in the 3 day rally earlier this week.
Country Lad
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Re: MND - Monadelphous
Well there you go.
Sales revenue up 37.8% to $2,614m
NPAT up 24.1% on prior year to $156.3m
EPS up 21.5% to 173c,
DPS up 9.6% to 137c
One of those inverse head & shoulders I mentioned elsewhere which could break out today based on the results. It will depend on whether the market dwells on the results or the outlook comments:
Cheers
Country Lad
Well there you go.
Sales revenue up 37.8% to $2,614m
NPAT up 24.1% on prior year to $156.3m
EPS up 21.5% to 173c,
DPS up 9.6% to 137c
One of those inverse head & shoulders I mentioned elsewhere which could break out today based on the results. It will depend on whether the market dwells on the results or the outlook comments:
Cheers
Country Lad
Julia
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Re: MND - Monadelphous
BKN and WOR similarly seeming to be recovering. BKN has a 6.5% ff yield.
BKN and WOR similarly seeming to be recovering. BKN has a 6.5% ff yield.
McCoy Pauley
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Re: MND - Monadelphous
As Julia Lee on Market Day loves to remind us the "market is forward looking" (urgh) and I suspect that the price drop today is a combination of (urgh) "buying the rumour, selling the fact" and the fact that the MD said in the media release accompanying the release of the reports that the announced result was a product of "abnormal growth which reflected an unprecedented volume of construction contracts from the record level of resources and energy developments in execution phase" and in the new financial year (ie., 2013-14), "market conditions have tightened significantly".
MND has $1.3 billion of revenue for the new financial year from new contracts and contract extension and MND is looking to expand into the LNG sector. MND has established a support office in Mongolia to pursue "long-term opportunities in this emerging resource development market".
Effectively, MND has warned the market to expect lower revenue for 2013-2014 than for 2012-2013 with a lot of emphasis on "tightening market conditions ... as customers pulled back and reassessed their capital expenditure plans and focused on optimising asset performance and reducing costs".
Presumably, although MND did not provide guidance on expected NPAT for next year, lower revenue will almost certainly see lower NPAT and EPS for next financial year. I suspect that this is a big driver for the falling SP this morning.
As Julia Lee on Market Day loves to remind us the "market is forward looking" (urgh) and I suspect that the price drop today is a combination of (urgh) "buying the rumour, selling the fact" and the fact that the MD said in the media release accompanying the release of the reports that the announced result was a product of "abnormal growth which reflected an unprecedented volume of construction contracts from the record level of resources and energy developments in execution phase" and in the new financial year (ie., 2013-14), "market conditions have tightened significantly".
MND has $1.3 billion of revenue for the new financial year from new contracts and contract extension and MND is looking to expand into the LNG sector. MND has established a support office in Mongolia to pursue "long-term opportunities in this emerging resource development market".
Effectively, MND has warned the market to expect lower revenue for 2013-2014 than for 2012-2013 with a lot of emphasis on "tightening market conditions ... as customers pulled back and reassessed their capital expenditure plans and focused on optimising asset performance and reducing costs".
Presumably, although MND did not provide guidance on expected NPAT for next year, lower revenue will almost certainly see lower NPAT and EPS for next financial year. I suspect that this is a big driver for the falling SP this morning.
skc
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Re: MND - Monadelphous
Result is a slight beat from what I can see and the outlook statement is pretty much as expected. The revenue line is forecasted to be below FY13 (unquantified) but the challenge will be maintaining the margin while the miners drive their cost reduction while the other out-of-work contractors compete for new work.
Not a report that I could trade one way or the other... thought about shorting on open but with short interests already high (>12%) I thought the result was solid enough for some potential short covering as well.
Definitely a stock to keep an eye on when they provide updates through the year.
Technically there's support at $17.60 (the H&S breakout level) so a tap there might be a potential long setup.
Result is a slight beat from what I can see and the outlook statement is pretty much as expected. The revenue line is forecasted to be below FY13 (unquantified) but the challenge will be maintaining the margin while the miners drive their cost reduction while the other out-of-work contractors compete for new work.
Not a report that I could trade one way or the other... thought about shorting on open but with short interests already high (>12%) I thought the result was solid enough for some potential short covering as well.
Definitely a stock to keep an eye on when they provide updates through the year.
Technically there's support at $17.60 (the H&S breakout level) so a tap there might be a potential long setup.
Country Lad
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Re: MND - Monadelphous
Yep as I said,
Which puts this one on my watch list to see how it goes from here as the level of work in hand, the tenders submitted and the likely other new work may not justify the price falls from here and profit for 2014 may just be a lot better than anticipated.
Cheers
Country Lad
Yep as I said,
Which puts this one on my watch list to see how it goes from here as the level of work in hand, the tenders submitted and the likely other new work may not justify the price falls from here and profit for 2014 may just be a lot better than anticipated.
Cheers
Country Lad
tinhat
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Re: MND - Monadelphous
The problem is all the mining service companies are looking to expand into the LNG sector. It will be a question what margins are available due to competitive pressures.
The problem is all the mining service companies are looking to expand into the LNG sector. It will be a question what margins are available due to competitive pressures.
McCoy Pauley
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Re: MND - Monadelphous
Very true, though MND appears (at least to this humble investor) to have a strong reputation for mining services and engineering work and it has already picked up contracts in this sector over the last 12 months.
Very true, though MND appears (at least to this humble investor) to have a strong reputation for mining services and engineering work and it has already picked up contracts in this sector over the last 12 months.
McCoy Pauley
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Re: MND - Monadelphous
From my morning FN Arena email newsletter this morning:
Ouch. Expecting MND to drop during the course of today as investors digest UBS' latest prognostications.
From my morning FN Arena email newsletter this morning:
FN Arena said:
Ouch. Expecting MND to drop during the course of today as investors digest UBS' latest prognostications.
Country Lad
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Re: MND - Monadelphous
Oh dear, it is a case of brokers at 100 paces.
UBS
UBS rates MND as Sell (5) - Broker reports Monadelphous fell short of consensus on tighter margins as the operating environment declined and as several projects underperformed.
Another Broker
We retain our Buy recommendation as we now consider the stock has more than priced in the likely earnings decline in FY14 with new contract awards a potential positive catalyst.
UBS
Broker believes FY14 outlook is challenging and has already included much-vaunted LNG projects in estimates.
Another Broker
We expect FY14 group revenue to decline around 10% driven by a 20% reduction in Engineering Construction divisional revenue (unchanged compared to our previous expectations) and consider FY14 a more appropriate base level of maintainable earnings for the group.
We have lowered our margin assumptions in FY14/15 partially offset by lower depreciation. EPS downgraded by 2% in FY14 and FY15 unchanged.
UBS
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $17.54
Another Broker
We rate MND a Buy with a 12-month target price of $21.64. We believe the company will find it increasingly difficult to replicate the exceptional level of earnings growth over FY12/13 but consider this more than reflected in the current share price.
UBS
DCF and price target of $13
Another Broker
Our MND valuation is largely unchanged at $21.64 using a DCF methodology
Cheers
Country Lad
PS I have edited the post to delete broker name as the material will no doubt be copyrighted
Oh dear, it is a case of brokers at 100 paces.
UBS
UBS rates MND as Sell (5) - Broker reports Monadelphous fell short of consensus on tighter margins as the operating environment declined and as several projects underperformed.
Another Broker
We retain our Buy recommendation as we now consider the stock has more than priced in the likely earnings decline in FY14 with new contract awards a potential positive catalyst.
UBS
Broker believes FY14 outlook is challenging and has already included much-vaunted LNG projects in estimates.
Another Broker
We expect FY14 group revenue to decline around 10% driven by a 20% reduction in Engineering Construction divisional revenue (unchanged compared to our previous expectations) and consider FY14 a more appropriate base level of maintainable earnings for the group.
We have lowered our margin assumptions in FY14/15 partially offset by lower depreciation. EPS downgraded by 2% in FY14 and FY15 unchanged.
UBS
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $17.54
Another Broker
We rate MND a Buy with a 12-month target price of $21.64. We believe the company will find it increasingly difficult to replicate the exceptional level of earnings growth over FY12/13 but consider this more than reflected in the current share price.
UBS
DCF and price target of $13
Another Broker
Our MND valuation is largely unchanged at $21.64 using a DCF methodology
Cheers
Country Lad
PS I have edited the post to delete broker name as the material will no doubt be copyrighted
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Re: MND - Monadelphous
Revenue came in at $2.61 billion, up 38% from $1.9 billion. Likewise, net profit was up 13.8% from $137.3 million to $156.3 million.
A final dividend of 75 cents per share fully franked.
As a long term holder of MND I am reasonably happy
Revenue came in at $2.61 billion, up 38% from $1.9 billion. Likewise, net profit was up 13.8% from $137.3 million to $156.3 million.
A final dividend of 75 cents per share fully franked.
As a long term holder of MND I am reasonably happy
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