MCC - Macarthur Coal

[jammin]

Looks like a short after the recent announcement of falling sales combined with the (to be confirmed) double top.
Whilst MCC say that profit remains in the forecast range, reduced sales due to port issues will continue. The port issues would seem to be beyond their control.

 

[reece55]

MCC: MacAurthur Coal

The coal sector is heating up by the looks of things (pardon the pun).

This one today has finally broken out of resistance at about the 5.95 barrier that it has failed to reach for some 1.5 years. Uptrend still in place, chart looking very nice and good volume - heres hoping previous resistance becomes new support!

Cheers
Reece

 

[reece55]

Absolute textbook move from this stock yesterday, the sellers were completely exhausted. From there, in the afternoon the thing just soared.

Close this morning @ 6.35 for a nice 5%~ profit on a 6.05 entry in CFD position, if it retraces to $6.00 and holds I will buy some more......

Cheers
Reece

 

[noirua]

Macarthur coal have had their problems in the past year with congestion in Dalrymple Bay and Infrastructure constraints that have led to high purchases of coal to make up shortfalls. Worth watching all the same as coal prices strengthen: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070725/pdf/313lmh4sd453vq.pdf

 

[noirua]

Many may consider it appropriate to sell MCC with revenues down 32.2% and profits 55% lower. This stock is set to remain under pressure but may throw up an opportunity if it drops below $5.50.

 

[michael_selway]

Many may consider it appropriate to sell MCC with revenues down 32.2% and profits 55% lower. This stock is set to remain under pressure but may throw up an opportunity if it drops below $5.50.

Hm this one has gone crazy as well!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 27.6 33.1 72.7 86.2
DPS 18.0 16.4 32.5 44.7

thx

MS

 

[michael_selway]

Hi some new numbers out

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 27.6 29.7 66.0 92.1
DPS 18.0 14.8 31.5 41.9

thx

MS

Date: 30/10/2007
Author: Stephen Wisenthal
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 16
There are many coal producers benefitting from the record coal price,underpinned by significant demand from Asia. Although stocks such as MacarthurCoal, New Hope and Felix Resources improved on 29 October 2007, Felix MD BrianFlannery identified port and rail infrastructure bottlenecks as a 2007 growthconstraint. The high stock prices for coal firms relies on the supply and demandimbalance, according to Fat Prophets' Gavin Wendt, head of mining andresources research

Date: 1/11/2007
Author: Jamie Freed
Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 30
Macarthur Coal has been forced to reduce its annual sales forecast because ofthe bottleneck at the Dalrymple Bay port in Queensland. The company cut itsestimate from 4.5 million tonnes to four million tonnes after reporting a 35%fall in sales for the first quarter of 2007-08, compared with the previouscorresponding period. Sales for the quarter only totalled 777,200 tonnes,despite the company producing 915,500 tonnes of coal from its two Queenslandmines. The capacity at Dalrymple Bay has been reduced during the constructionphase of an expansion project. Macarthur shares rose $A0.43 to a record $A9.05on 31 October 2007 after trading as low as $A8.15

 

[michael_selway]

Hi Anyone own this one?

Some bad/uncertain guidance, but MT/LT it may be still good?

Thanks MS

The Board of Directors of Macarthur Coal Limited (ASX: MCC) has today announced profit guidance for the first half of the 2008 financial year. Based on current forecasts, profit for the six months to December 2007 is likely to be in the range of $12 million to $18 million which is significantly lower than the $42.2 million reported in the previous corresponding half.

Sales volumes and profits for the first half of this financial year have been heavily impacted by ongoing constraints in the Goonyella coal chain and high levels of demurrage and it is evident that there will be little or no improvement in the short term. The current port infrastructure bottlenecks are due to the expansion works underway at Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal. Macarthur Coal’s allocation will double to 8.8Mtpa once the expansion is completed in 2010.

Macarthur Coal CEO and Managing Director, Nicole Hollows, said that although
operations at Macarthur Coal’s two mines, Coppabella and Moorvale, continue to perform extremely well, there is significant uncertainty about the level of sales for the second half of the financial year due to restricted port access and coal chain supply issues.

Ms Hollows said that the Company has large stocks of both run of mine and product coal ready for processing and shipping if allocated rail and port tonnages become available. In addition, world-wide demand for low volatile PCI coal remains strong, mainly due to the emerging markets in Brazil and India. Also, rising demand for coal is likely to lead to an increase in the LV PCI coal price in the next round of negotiations which will be completed by March 2008.

 

[noirua]

Hi Anyone own this one?
Some bad/uncertain guidance, but MT/LT it may be still good?
Thanks MS

Hi m_s, As I felt, this McArthur stock continues to be beset with problems. Can't see an end to this problem at the Dalrymple Bay Port. I still keep to my August thoughts that they are worth looking at below $5.50.

 

[michael_selway]

Hi m_s, As I felt, this McArthur stock continues to be beset with problems. Can't see an end to this problem at the Dalrymple Bay Port. I still keep to my August thoughts that they are worth looking at below $5.50.

Hm aquisition today!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 27.6 22.6 66.3 106.0
DPS 18.0 14.0 32.0 39.5

The Board of Directors of Macarthur Coal Limited (ASX: MCC) has today announced
the signing of a Share Sale Agreement (SSA) for the purchase of 100% of the shares
in Custom Mining Ltd. Payment for the acquisition will be split between cash and
Macarthur Coal shares, as follows:
• $65 million cash, payable on execution of the SSA
• $200 million of Macarthur Coal shares VWAP 30 days being 24,776,393 shares
on satisfaction of all conditions precedent and
• A maximum of an additional $10 million of Macarthur Coal shares, issued on 31
March 2009 capped at $9.00 per share on satisfaction of all conditions
subsequent.
Custom Mining has interests in two projects being 70% of the Middlemount project
and a farm-in agreement for up to 70% of the Dingo West prospect.
The other 30% shareholder in the Middlemount project is Paway Pty Ltd, a wholly
owned subsidiary of Noble Group Limited in Hong Kong. Paway Pty Ltd also holds an
option to acquire an additional 20% in the project for $100 million.
The Middlemount project is located six kilometres southwest of the township of
Middlemount in central Queensland, approximately 280 kilometres from the
Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal and 390 kilometres from the port of Gladstone.
Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd has just commenced bulk sample open-cut mining
activities. It is forecast that 70% of the production will be a high-quality coking coal
and 30% a low volatile (LV) PCI coal. Subject to availability of toll washing, rail and
port capacity, first coal production could be in 2008. The Middlemount project has a
JORC resource of Measured 30.6Mt, Indicated 37.8Mt and Inferred 31.7Mt making a
total of 100Mt1.
Macarthur Coal’s CEO, Ms Nicole Hollows, said, “this opportunity represents a strong
fit with Macarthur Coal’s existing operations by expanding our market share of LV PCI
coal and diversifying our product range with semi-hard coking coal in the future. The
acquisition enables Macarthur Coal to position itself to be the leading independent
Australian coal company.”
Macarthur Coal and Noble look forward to forging a long-term, mutually-rewarding
relationship.

 

[noirua]

How wrong can I be as $10 approaches. Somehow could not bring myself to buy Macarthur Coal and rue the day I mentioned $5.50. Good luck to those who stayed on board.

 

[michael_selway]

How wrong can I be as $10 approaches. Somehow could not bring myself to buy Macarthur Coal and rue the day I mentioned $5.50. Good luck to those who stayed on board.

They keep uping the long term forecasts!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 27.6 21.9 86.3 115.6
DPS 18.0 13.8 43.5 57.8

thx

MS

 

[michael_selway]

MCC never seizes to amaze!



Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 27.6 18.3 85.9 137.3
DPS 18.0 11.8 40.9 68.7

Date: 31/1/2008
Author: Stephen Wisenthal
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 21
Macarthur Coal needs to pump out its coal mines before it can resume productionat its Queensland mines. Its mines received almost 680mm of rain in just over amonth. The company says its coal reserves can satisfy export shipmentrequirements, mainly due to the Dalrymple Bay coal terminal running well belowcapacity. Other coal miners who ship through Gladstone have been less affectedby flooding. Share prices in this sector continue to rise in anticipation ofcontinuing demand from China. One analyst expects the coal price to rise by over$US35 per tonne in 2008 taking the price to almost $US90

 

[storchyman]

Macarthur coal

Has anyone heard when they will be starting ground work on their coal tenament in Monto QLD yet?

Last I heard the EIS was all sewn up and were ready for Leitons to start work there...?

 

[michael_selway]

Re: Macarthur coal

Has anyone heard when they will be starting ground work on their coal tenament in Monto QLD yet?

Last I heard the EIS was all sewn up and were ready for Leitons to start work there...?

Hm not sure, but it does look like $20 might be a little cheap at current forecasts etc

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 27.6 25.0 182.0 240.4
DPS 18.0 12.5 91.5 126.3

thx

MS

Date: 23/5/2008
Author: Barry FitzGerald
Source: The Age --- Page: B3
The Australian sharemarket's reaction to ArcelorMittal's acquisitionof 14.9% in Macarthur Coal indicates a takeover may be imminent. Xstrata hasended its talks with Macarthur, China's CITIC is looking to sell its 17.6%stake, and founder Ken Talbot offered some of his own shares to Macarthur. TheForeign Investment Review Board would need to approve an anticipated $A4.2billion, $A20-per-share offer, but Arcelor is unlikely to face the sameacquisition obstacles as various Chinese companies, because it is notgovernment-backed

Date: 23/5/2008
Author: Yvonne Ball; Tracy Lee
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 55
The global steel group ArcelorMittal is eyeing Australian coal miner MacarthurCoal. Earlier, it purchased a 14.9% stake in Macarthur Coal for $A631 million.ArcelorMittal is thought to be preparing to lodge an application withAustralia's Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) to launch a full-blowntakeover offer for Macarthur. It must have FIRB approval to take its stake above15%. On 22 May 2008, shares in Macarthur Coal dipped by $A0.30 to close at$A19.56. The prospect of a takeover in the coal industry triggered a rally inthe share prices of Gloucester Coal and Felix Resources in Australia

Australian Coal Stocks Surge to Records on Takeover Speculation

By Jesse Riseborough

May 23 (Bloomberg) -- Felix Resources Ltd., the best performer on Australia's benchmark index this year, and Centennial Coal Co. surged to records in Sydney, pacing gains by producers of the fuel, on speculation of increased industry takeovers.

Felix, which has more than doubled this year, jumped 7.5 percent on the Australian stock exchange and Sydney-based Centennial advanced 12 percent.

The speculation has been spurred by ArcelorMittal's purchase this week of a 14.9 percent stake in Macarthur Coal Ltd. for A$631 million ($604 million). Acquisitions of coal and iron-ore assets in Australia, the world's largest exporter of the raw materials, will rise as steelmakers try to reduce costs, UBS AG said in a report this week.

Coal stocks are gaining because of ``the level of corporate activity that has occurred in the sector,'' Andrew Sekely, head of Australian equities at Intersuisse Ltd. in Sydney, said today by phone. ``The market is going through the process of trying to find what may be next one. Felix certainly will be one stock that could easily come into play.''

Felix rose A$1.40 to A$20.10 at the 4:10 p.m. Sydney time close on the exchange. Gloucester Coal Ltd. advanced 5.5 percent to A$12.66 and Aquila Resources Ltd. gained 6.7 percent to A$15.45, both to records, while the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 1 percent. Macarthur rose 1.5 percent to A$19.85. Felix Managing Director Brian Flannery could not immediately be reached for comment.

``We expect there to be further consolidation within the sector as steel producers globally recognize the increasing importance of securing supplies of iron ore, coal and manganese,'' UBS analysts led by Sydney-based Glyn Lawcock said in the report.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Riseborough in Melbourne at jriseborough@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aCrFQW7kRlsU&refer=australia

 

[noirua]

I'm not a great lover of Macarthur Coal, to my cost, as it's not long ago that bad news set them on a strong downward path. The withdrawal of a potential bid seems to put a temporary roof on the share price at around $20 and other possible bidders will want to thoroughly check the books of MCC.
Will be interesting to see if the company has solved all its infrastructure problems and can get these large stockpiles of PCI coal shipped and away.

 

[michael_selway]

I'm not a great lover of Macarthur Coal, to my cost, as it's not long ago that bad news set them on a strong downward path. The withdrawal of a potential bid seems to put a temporary roof on the share price at around $20 and other possible bidders will want to thoroughly check the books of MCC.
Will be interesting to see if the company has solved all its infrastructure problems and can get these large stockpiles of PCI coal shipped and away.

Yep its veru compelling MCC at current levels, despite the drop

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 27.6 21.2 182.0 328.4
DPS 18.0 16.0 88.0 152.1


thx

MS

 

[niknah]

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23949040-643,00.html

SEEKING to protect themselves against a shrinking number of suppliers, global steelmaking giants ArcelorMittal and Posco paid $636 million for big slices of Macarthur Coal yesterday, increasing hurdles for any prospective predator.

With both steel companies apparently buying from Macarthur founder Ken Talbot at $20 a share, Indian-run Arcelor boosted its 14.9 per cent stake to 19.9 per cent, while South Korean Posco took a 10 per cent stake.

The sales leave Mr Talbot with a 4.9 per cent stake and, with Citic Resources owning 17.7 per cent, three foreign companies able to block acquisition of Macarthur, which produces pulverised coal used in steelmaking.

Looks like the end of any possible take overs here.

 

[noirua]

MCC in trading Halt with an announcement due by Thursday. Maybe this has proved to be a clever move by Arcelor Mittal in downgrading the worth of MCC before bidding?

 

[jayinoz]

Tilbert was lucky to get out with his golden parachute. He nearly blew it trying to go for trying to push for $22. I am sure the guys wanting a better deal artificially decreased the cost very quickly to under $17 the day b4 the halt.

Anyway Tilbert gets his few 100 million dollars and flies away. Good luck to him.

For the rest of us who still have the stock- it was a good ride. Let us hope the new management get on with production as opposed to director greed- get back to fundamentals.