JohnDe
La dolce vita
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LYC - Lynas Rare Earths
- Thread starter nioka
- Start date
Good afternoon LYC believers,
Nice 10.56% gain at the moment regarding today's announcement (see attached).
LYC has confirmed it had been granted an operating licence variation to January 2024. The licence variation allows the cracking and leaching plant to continue to operate. Nice one never in doubt...
Holding.
Kind regards
rcw1
Nice 10.56% gain at the moment regarding today's announcement (see attached).
LYC has confirmed it had been granted an operating licence variation to January 2024. The licence variation allows the cracking and leaching plant to continue to operate. Nice one never in doubt...
Holding.
Kind regards
rcw1
Good morning,
Published today (09/05/23):
- Lynas cut to Neutral: Citi
- Lynas target raised 11pc to $8.90: Bell Potter
Kind regards
rcw1
?To board or not to board....missed the earlier bus
Hello Rabbithop,
Haven't spoken with you for long time... Hoping you and the family well.
This article featured in the Financial Review last night (08/05/23), it was written by Elouise Fowler, not so awe inspiring
Look as you would know rcw1 is a LYC believer... fast traded a squillion times dating way back COMMSEC times with Mahail advocating for it. M_ embraced fast trading the stock, whilst Mahail a true believer advocated more so for holding long term for investment purposes. Mahail always said would sell once the stock hit $10, and had accumulated a squillion shares ... Would luv to know what the lad did ... Anyways Rabbithop, rcw1 digressing ... enjoy the read. rcw1 holding. As always mate conduct your own due diligence.
Lynas Rare Earths’ net profit will surge by 70 per cent, analysts predict, following the Malaysian government’s decision to grant the Australian company an extra six months to process critical minerals at its flagship plant.
The reprieve averts a production shutdown and buys Lynas more time to build its new Kalgoorlie plant in Western Australia ahead of Malaysia’s ban now coming into force on January 1, 2024. Lynas, the world’s largest producer of rare earths outside China, made the last-ditch attempt to overturn the ban – which was due to come into effect on July 1 – on importing and processing rare earths that leave low-level radioactive residue.
While Lynas failed to convince the government to reconsider the ban altogether, the extension will avert a damaging shutdown which threatened to disrupt supply of the strategically important rare earths essential to powering electric motors, wind turbines and defence applications.
The extension granted by Malaysia’s Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation, Chang Lih Kang, means 2024 will now be a year of “orderly transition” rather than hardship, said analysts at Barrenjoey.
But if spot prices of $US65/kg were used to generate the EBITDA forecast over the remainder of financial year 2024, this would result in a 180 per cent uplift.
Lynas’ failure to convince Malaysia to completely overturn the ban means the administrative appeals process is now exhausted. But the company is still considering legal appeals to “seek review”. That could include a judicial review, but remains unclear.
“Malaysia offers legal avenues for the review of the licence conditions. Lynas has made significant investments in its Malaysian facility and will seek review,” the company told the market.
Shares in Lynas jumped 12.16 per cent to $7.38 on Monday.
Lynas’ share price has fallen 20 per cent since February, driven by fears of a production hiatus, a message from Tesla that NdPr is not needed in EVs, and a 40 per cent decline in the NdPr price to about $US60/kg, Barrenjoey said.
“In our view, the market is overcapitalising negative and temporary news flow. An investment in Lynas today is buying into rare earths with the commodity price nearing cost support and below a sustainable incentive price for non-China supply, which we estimate at [around] $US85/kg.”
“Lynas would now be able to restructure its industrial footprint in a more orderly fashion. Lynas would benefit from more cash flow, a better balance sheet,” wrote Barrenjoey analysts Daniel Morgan, Glyn Lawcock and Jim Xu.
“Financial year 2024 would no longer be a year of hardship – but instead the foundations of growth,”
Malaysia outlawed cracking and leaching of rare earths mined in WA on its shores despite lobbying from Australia, the United States, Japan and the European Union to give the company more leeway, as these countries seek to break China’s dominance of rare earth processing. The cracking and leaching process leaves behind a low-level radioactive residue, and storage of that material – about 500,000 tonnes to date – is a highly contentious issue in Malaysia.
Lynas mines rare earths near Laverton in WA and plans to undertake cracking and leaching at Kalgoorlie before sending the intermediate product to its Malaysia facilities for final-stage processing under the revised licence conditions.
But there were fears the Kalgoorlie plant would not be up and running in time as Lynas did not provide a firm opening date for the facility, leaving investors and analysts expecting an interruption in production.
The ministerial reprieve led Barrenjoey analysts to significantly upgrade their 2024 production guidance of neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) by 60 per cent to reflect Lynas’ ability to continue to run the Malaysian cracking and leaching plant until the end of this year. “This lifts our financial year 2024 net profit after tax by 70 per cent to $330 million,” the analysts said. “Our cash at bank forecast at 30 June, 2024 has been lifted to $743 million (from $576 million). “Lynas’ financial capacity to execute on its growth strategy has been enhanced.”
Canaccord Genuity analyst Reg Spencer said financial year 2024 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation could increase by 230 per cent to $337 million, from $103 million, assuming a base case NdPr pricing of $US80 a kilogram over the first half of 2024.
But if spot prices of $US65/kg were used to generate the EBITDA forecast over the remainder of financial year 2024, this would result in a 180 per cent uplift.
Lynas’ failure to convince Malaysia to completely overturn the ban means the administrative appeals process is now exhausted. But the company is still considering legal appeals to “seek review”. That could include a judicial review, but remains unclear.
“Malaysia offers legal avenues for the review of the licence conditions. Lynas has made significant investments in its Malaysian facility and will seek review,” the company told the market.
Shares in Lynas jumped 12.16 per cent to $7.38 on Monday.
Lynas’ share price has fallen 20 per cent since February, driven by fears of a production hiatus, a message from Tesla that NdPr is not needed in EVs, and a 40 per cent decline in the NdPr price to about $US60/kg, Barrenjoey said. “In our view, the market is overcapitalising negative and temporary news flow. An investment in Lynas today is buying into rare earths with the commodity price nearing cost support and below a sustainable incentive price for non-China supply, which we estimate at [around] $US85/kg.”
Going to QLD this Sunday for 3 days. Dont have Mahail n some others contact living over there. Wld love to have cuppa or two with themHello Rabbithop,
Haven't spoken with you for long time... Hoping you and the family well.
This article featured in the Financial Review last night (08/05/23), it was written by Elouise Fowler, not so awe inspiring
Look as you would know rcw1 is a LYC believer... fast traded a squillion times dating way back COMMSEC times with Mahail advocating for it. M_ embraced fast trading the stock, whilst Mahail a true believer advocated more so for holding long term for investment purposes. Mahail always said would sell once the stock hit $10, and had accumulated a squillion shares ... Would luv to know what the lad did ... Anyways Rabbithop, rcw1 digressing ... enjoy the read. rcw1 holding. As always mate conduct your own due diligence.
Lynas Rare Earths’ net profit will surge by 70 per cent, analysts predict, following the Malaysian government’s decision to grant the Australian company an extra six months to process critical minerals at its flagship plant.
The reprieve averts a production shutdown and buys Lynas more time to build its new Kalgoorlie plant in Western Australia ahead of Malaysia’s ban now coming into force on January 1, 2024. Lynas, the world’s largest producer of rare earths outside China, made the last-ditch attempt to overturn the ban – which was due to come into effect on July 1 – on importing and processing rare earths that leave low-level radioactive residue.
While Lynas failed to convince the government to reconsider the ban altogether, the extension will avert a damaging shutdown which threatened to disrupt supply of the strategically important rare earths essential to powering electric motors, wind turbines and defence applications.
The extension granted by Malaysia’s Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation, Chang Lih Kang, means 2024 will now be a year of “orderly transition” rather than hardship, said analysts at Barrenjoey.
But if spot prices of $US65/kg were used to generate the EBITDA forecast over the remainder of financial year 2024, this would result in a 180 per cent uplift.
Lynas’ failure to convince Malaysia to completely overturn the ban means the administrative appeals process is now exhausted. But the company is still considering legal appeals to “seek review”. That could include a judicial review, but remains unclear.
“Malaysia offers legal avenues for the review of the licence conditions. Lynas has made significant investments in its Malaysian facility and will seek review,” the company told the market.
Shares in Lynas jumped 12.16 per cent to $7.38 on Monday.
Lynas’ share price has fallen 20 per cent since February, driven by fears of a production hiatus, a message from Tesla that NdPr is not needed in EVs, and a 40 per cent decline in the NdPr price to about $US60/kg, Barrenjoey said.
“In our view, the market is overcapitalising negative and temporary news flow. An investment in Lynas today is buying into rare earths with the commodity price nearing cost support and below a sustainable incentive price for non-China supply, which we estimate at [around] $US85/kg.”
“Lynas would now be able to restructure its industrial footprint in a more orderly fashion. Lynas would benefit from more cash flow, a better balance sheet,” wrote Barrenjoey analysts Daniel Morgan, Glyn Lawcock and Jim Xu.
“Financial year 2024 would no longer be a year of hardship – but instead the foundations of growth,”
Malaysia outlawed cracking and leaching of rare earths mined in WA on its shores despite lobbying from Australia, the United States, Japan and the European Union to give the company more leeway, as these countries seek to break China’s dominance of rare earth processing. The cracking and leaching process leaves behind a low-level radioactive residue, and storage of that material – about 500,000 tonnes to date – is a highly contentious issue in Malaysia.
Lynas mines rare earths near Laverton in WA and plans to undertake cracking and leaching at Kalgoorlie before sending the intermediate product to its Malaysia facilities for final-stage processing under the revised licence conditions.
But there were fears the Kalgoorlie plant would not be up and running in time as Lynas did not provide a firm opening date for the facility, leaving investors and analysts expecting an interruption in production.
The ministerial reprieve led Barrenjoey analysts to significantly upgrade their 2024 production guidance of neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) by 60 per cent to reflect Lynas’ ability to continue to run the Malaysian cracking and leaching plant until the end of this year. “This lifts our financial year 2024 net profit after tax by 70 per cent to $330 million,” the analysts said. “Our cash at bank forecast at 30 June, 2024 has been lifted to $743 million (from $576 million). “Lynas’ financial capacity to execute on its growth strategy has been enhanced.”
Canaccord Genuity analyst Reg Spencer said financial year 2024 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation could increase by 230 per cent to $337 million, from $103 million, assuming a base case NdPr pricing of $US80 a kilogram over the first half of 2024.
But if spot prices of $US65/kg were used to generate the EBITDA forecast over the remainder of financial year 2024, this would result in a 180 per cent uplift.
Lynas’ failure to convince Malaysia to completely overturn the ban means the administrative appeals process is now exhausted. But the company is still considering legal appeals to “seek review”. That could include a judicial review, but remains unclear.
“Malaysia offers legal avenues for the review of the licence conditions. Lynas has made significant investments in its Malaysian facility and will seek review,” the company told the market.
Shares in Lynas jumped 12.16 per cent to $7.38 on Monday.
Lynas’ share price has fallen 20 per cent since February, driven by fears of a production hiatus, a message from Tesla that NdPr is not needed in EVs, and a 40 per cent decline in the NdPr price to about $US60/kg, Barrenjoey said. “In our view, the market is overcapitalising negative and temporary news flow. An investment in Lynas today is buying into rare earths with the commodity price nearing cost support and below a sustainable incentive price for non-China supply, which we estimate at [around] $US85/kg.”
Good afternoon
Been a nice day, today. Pretty much only thingy gone wrong for rcw1 (at this time) has been LYC.
SP was smashed, down 6.51%, in real terms $0.50.
According to Motley Fool (OMG), probably because UBS broker reporting LYC downgraded to neutral with reduced price target of $8.30. Assuming Neodymium and praseodymium price forecasting softened. Haven't actually read this information in the first person.
Have a good night.
Not holding
Kind regards
rcw1
Been a nice day, today. Pretty much only thingy gone wrong for rcw1 (at this time) has been LYC.
SP was smashed, down 6.51%, in real terms $0.50.
According to Motley Fool (OMG), probably because UBS broker reporting LYC downgraded to neutral with reduced price target of $8.30. Assuming Neodymium and praseodymium price forecasting softened. Haven't actually read this information in the first person.
Have a good night.
Not holding
Kind regards
rcw1
I have it on my watchlist but not a favourite one. If so is at $6 to $7, I may consider buying.
Hello Rabbithop
Hope you are well... rcw1 certainly watching LYC, will buy on the rise if numbers good to go. Good volume today, plenty profit takers, reckon.
Kind regards
rcw1
I am well n hope you are too. Yep..profit takers. Been paying more attention to DLI going up up n away, BHP is waking up, WBC n Deg for low to enter.
What's catching your eyes?
Good afternoon,
Sorry @Rabbithop missed your post.
LYC announcement today (19/06/23), short end of the stick, first production of Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate (MREC) from the Kalgoorlie Facility is now expected in August. Month or two later than anticipated but kinda expected.
Anyways see what gives abit later on.
Not holding.
Have a very nice night.
Kind regards
rcw1
Sorry @Rabbithop missed your post.
LYC announcement today (19/06/23), short end of the stick, first production of Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate (MREC) from the Kalgoorlie Facility is now expected in August. Month or two later than anticipated but kinda expected.
Anyways see what gives abit later on.
Not holding.
Have a very nice night.
Kind regards
rcw1
DrBourse
If you don't Ask, you don't Get.
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Late Sept 2022 LYC were trading at abt $7.35, so Bell P issued a Target Price of Abt $9.60..... Then the Sheep of this world pushed the SP up to $9.40......
Me Thinketh it Very Odd that dear Ole Bell P must have just had a look at the LYC Chart and they have noticed that LYC has been stuck trading within the Range of $7.11 to 7.96 since 8/5/23 (abt 6 weeks)…..
So the Alarm Bells went orff – lets issue a “Downgrade” they said to themselves….
So guess what happened....
at abt 10am this morning 22/6/23, Bell P issued the following STARTLING ANNOUNCEMENT....
“Lynas Rare Earths Target Price Cut 3.9% to A$8.55/Share by Bell Potter”..,,
Talk about being “on the Ball” – well done BP – you are in the same category as Goldman Sachs – Hopeless.
The LYC IV has been at Approx $7.11 to $7.96 since late Sept 2022 (pretty sure I posted those Calcs somewhere in ASF) – so I guess that means that BP have one more startling announcement to issue over the next few mths, prob down by another $1.00….
Sorry Bout the BOLD TEXT - dunno how to turn it orf - the "B" toggle is not responding....
Hafta Reboot.......The SHORTS of this Industry thrive on the outlandish calls by the likes of BP & GS - the Shorts all know what a Co's IV is, so they watch and wait for calls like the above on LYC, then when the time is right, the Shorts of this industry pounce - look at LYC from Early Feb 2023 to Mid March 2023, Shorts reign supreme.....
Last edited:
I was waiting or had been waiting for a long time..only interested if it's bet 6 - 7 so still doing my casual watch.
DrBourse
If you don't Ask, you don't Get.
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I hate Shorts - Knobbly Knees 
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Rabbito safety sitting in that thar bunny warren looking out.
Good morning
LYC announcement on 21 June:
Lynas won a A$20 million government grant to develop a new leach circuit project to process apatite-rich ore at its Mt Weld site in Western Australia. The new circuits could also increase recoveries of rare earth elements praseodymium, neodymium and dysprosium from the apatite-rich ore body at Mt Weld, Lynas said.
Have a very nice Sunday.
Kind regards
rcw1
LYC announcement on 21 June:
Lynas won a A$20 million government grant to develop a new leach circuit project to process apatite-rich ore at its Mt Weld site in Western Australia. The new circuits could also increase recoveries of rare earth elements praseodymium, neodymium and dysprosium from the apatite-rich ore body at Mt Weld, Lynas said.
Have a very nice Sunday.
Kind regards
rcw1
The SP is still high for my interest. DJ dropped on Fri, likely Mon will be another bad day for us. Lithium price may still win the race.
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Rabbito you are pretty safe at the moment. I would like to see PLS and LTR join you at the top.
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