Imminent and severe market correction

[Donga]

It is corrupt. Is there a waiting list for organ transplants for party elite? Or indeed many countries' party elite?

How is Chinese GDP data calculated then? With an abacus. How is it that what takes other countries several weeks to determine just preliminary data only takes China several days to calculate? Because they just make it up, lol.

The 'Jaws of death' chart referring to the US income/expenditure data is straight from the fed itself, resulting in a small matter of a deficit of some $1.4TRILLION and still trending in the wrong direction. And your prediction? Will it ever gradually correct?

As for the currency, if we were/are better performed than the US then why are we not already at parity, having not reached that mark previously when the terms of trade were supposedly much better? Many factors in why DOW and XAO have different lines, not about list the ones I can think of.

Stimulis measures are ephemeral, and have not resulted in a reduction in under or un employment, so how much more will be needed? Lessons from The Great Depression, rather be safe than sorry, and I don't mind govt spending my taxes.

45 million Americans, 1in 6, are below the poverty line; 18 million are underemployed; they now get a full year of unemployment benefits before they drop off the statistics? Poverty line is so relative. I'm not an apologist for US policy makers or their values but nor am I gearing up for armageddon.

Do you seriously think that there is no connection between the US Fed, Treasury & Goldman Sachs that gives GS an unfair advantage to everyone else on the planet? All been said before.......ad nauseum..... the conspiracy stuff again

I can assure you, any bearish posts based on factual data is more than offset by bullish post based on hope & rhetoric. Phew, thought you were going to refer to me

Uncle F, you ask more questions than you give answers. It's easy to criticise how the world ticks, I do it as well. Struggle in this thread with the constant apocalyptic sentiments that don't materialise, reminds me of some religions out there. But as I said before it is kinda fun, but don't expect me to take it seriously.

 

[explod]

Uncle F, you ask more questions than you give answers. It's easy to criticise how the world ticks, I do it as well. Struggle in this thread with the constant apocalyptic sentiments that don't materialise, reminds me of some religions out there. But as I said before it is kinda fun, but don't expect me to take it seriously.

There is an old saying "you cant put an old head on young shoulders"

It is obvious that the real content of some threads are just not taken in, it appears that good comprehension only comes for bitter experience. And having had that a few years ago I got my head into the economic books and have done a virtual Phd in it (jezz sounds like Robots) But having a tertiary background did know how to go about that.

If you are not able to evaluate the real content of the basic posts then we may as well not post at all. In cool hand Luke there are some people you just cant reach

 

[GumbyLearner]

but so many posts go back on this thread about imminent and severe etc and the same people come out and bang away again, without ever saying oh shucks got that wrong last time. I wouldn't mind but find much of the purported logic and reasoning fairly shallow, often conspiracy laced about official data and ulterior motives.

Now good bear talk is fun, but please don't expect me to take you guys seriously until you get it right at least once.

Another conspiracy laced website devoid of reality

GMAC in talks for 3rd loan from bailout fund
Some wonder when auto aid will end

October 29, 2009
BY GREG GARDNER
FREE PRESS BUSINESS WRITER

As talks continued over an additional loan of up to $5.6 billion to GMAC Financial Services Inc., the Obama administration's involvement in the turnarounds at General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC deepened and raised questions about how much more taxpayer aid will be needed to stabilize the automakers' retail businesses.

"It's like the scene from 'The Godfather.' Despite the best intentions to let go, they keep getting pulled back in," said Martin Zimmerman, a professor of business administration at the University of Michigan.

http://www.freep.com/article/200910.../GMAC-in-talks-for-3rd-loan-from-bailout-fund

Also, check out the Madoff thread on ASF and GMAC's financial links to Madoff!

Here's some more conspiracy theory cake icing for your enjoyment Donga.

Which bank did that Timothy Geithner work for again?

China's Geely up, bucking market, on parent's Volvo bid
Wed Oct 28, 2009 10:34pm EDT

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idUSHKG29469720091029

Geely shares rose to a high of HK$3.0 before paring gains to 2.4 percent at HK$2.94, beating the benchmark Hang Seng Index .HSI, which was down 2.19 percent at 0209 GMT.

The stock has more than quadrupled this year on the Volvo hope and strong car sales in China, as well as an investment by Goldman Sachs (GS.N) in the company's convertible bonds. [ID:nHKG311594]

 

[Macquack]

Uncle F, perhap you just like being a bear, a glass half empty guy as your assessments above can be challenged on so many levels, e.g. myriad of Chinese data will show how much is being consumed (cars, telephones, TVs, housing). Perhaps you see infrastructure as production until people start using the subways etc. The business I'm involved in is booming in China, health care. Having travelled to China last year to visit my brother who lives there, I find your comments on pseudo communism, moral hazard capitalism and corrupt junta as naive and condescending.

The "jaws of death" charts I've seen remind me of Nostradamus, fanciful but useless in predicting the immediate future. Pity you didn't get time to respond to my other post requesting a redraw of your chart using a different year base on the DOW and XAO comparatives. Nor did you advise what you thought the divergence represented in any case. Hint: could it be that Australia has simply outperformed US economy or resources have been more important than American motor vehicles, etc. Not sure what you were thinking - just two lines with a dubious base that showed XAO had outperfomed DOW, so what?

Not just your good self Uncle F, but so many posts go back on this thread about imminent and severe etc and the same people come out and bang away again, without ever saying oh shucks got that wrong last time. I wouldn't mind but find much of the purported logic and reasoning fairly shallow, often conspiracy laced about official data and ulterior motives.

Now good bear talk is fun, but please don't expect me to take you guys seriously until you get it right at least once.

Is it Donga or Drongo?

Show some respect to the creator of this thread (Uncle Festivus).

If you read the whole thread (instead of just mouthing off) you would know that Uncle Festivus has already got it right once (Global Financial Crisis) and is now going for his quinella.

 

[Donga]

Another conspiracy laced website devoid of reality

http://www.freep.com/article/200910.../GMAC-in-talks-for-3rd-loan-from-bailout-fund

Also, check out the Madoff thread on ASF and GMAC's financial links to Madoff!

Here's some more conspiracy theory cake icing for your enjoyment Donga.

Which bank did that Timothy Geithner work for again?

China's Geely up, bucking market, on parent's Volvo bid
Wed Oct 28, 2009 10:34pm EDT

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idUSHKG29469720091029

The stock has more than quadrupled this year on the Volvo hope and strong car sales in China, as well as an investment by Goldman Sachs (GS.N) in the company's convertible bonds. [ID:nHKG311594]

Hey GL - I can add a lot more conspiracy stuff. The misleading messages by governments and media on the incidence of smoking related lung cancer being my favourite (pharma industry loves it). Can post NIH data and meta analyses which show nearly 90% of smokers will not succumb to cancer and of those that do 90% reach 40 pack years, i.e. pack a day for 40 years. The odds of someone my age, in their fifties, who has a smoke with a beer of getting cancer is less than 0.2%. I'm not about to say the campaign to stop kids smoking should be canned though would like a little more honesty and less anti smoking hysteria.

There are heaps of flaws in the world order, e.g. I detest gain through connections and not abilities, but it is part of life. I don't see the impact of these flaws heading us towards an imminent and severe market correction.

Macquack - you're kidding aren't you. Just a cursory look at thread one and Kennas response did it for me. Early 2007, well there were a few folk talking about it then, the market had steamed up to 5500 from low 3000s eclipsing all previous records. But still didn't happen until end of the year by which time XAO had reachedf 6700, so imminent? And dine out on it in finitum? If someone continually bleats they will definitely tip the next one.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Hey GL - I can add a lot more conspiracy stuff. The misleading messages by governments and media on the incidence of smoking related lung cancer being my favourite (pharma industry loves it). Can post NIH data and meta analyses which show nearly 90% of smokers will not succumb to cancer and of those that do 90% reach 40 pack years, i.e. pack a day for 40 years. The odds of someone my age, in their fifties, who has a smoke with a beer of getting cancer is less than 0.2%. I'm not about to say the campaign to stop kids smoking should be canned though would like a little more honesty and less anti smoking hysteria.

There are heaps of flaws in the world order, e.g. I detest gain through connections and not abilities, but it is part of life. I don't see the impact of these flaws heading us towards an imminent and severe market correction.

Off topic there Donga.

Do you believe that the current rise since March is influenced by private capital or government capital? Or maybe a combination of the two?

And to what degree is it sustainable to produce returns for a lay investor interested in making a return?

 

[Donga]

Off topic there Donga.

Do you believe that the current rise since March is influenced by private capital or government capital? Or maybe a combination of the two?

And to what degree is it sustainable to produce returns for a lay investor interested in making a return?

Yeah apologies for my anti anti smoking bleat will refrain.

My lay investor response would be combination of gov't lead stimulus, especially in China and private response, particularly consumers and include my favourites at the moment being miners.

Not sustainable given the returns that have been made by the average punter in the RECOVERY from the panic induced by X - generation traders, many of whom had never experienced a recession before Now that was chicken little stuff. Being a little facetious as don't pretend to understand high level banking mechanics involved but expect panic had a large influence in the magnitude of the GFC.

Not sure where you're heading but believe unsustainable doesn't lead to imminent and severe market correction.

Now GL - When do you think the i & s m c will occur and to what magnitude? Missus and I going to walk down to Wharf Bar for a beer and a smoke, so will check in later. Good banter

 

[Macquack]

Macquack - you're kidding aren't you. Just a cursory look at thread one and Kennas response did it for me. Early 2007, well there were a few folk talking about it then, the market had steamed up to 5500 from low 3000s eclipsing all previous records. But still didn't happen until end of the year by which time XAO had reachedf 6700, so imminent? And dine out on it in finitum? If someone continually bleats they will definitely tip the next one.

Sorry there Donga that Uncle Festivus could not give you a more accurate timing on the "imminent and severe market correction".

This post by Uncle Festivus (number 7) dated 4 April, 2007 may have been to early for you and the market but was ultimately correct.

The crux of the post was that here was obviously a very successful fund manager taking a fairly decisive stance due to fundamentals of the US housing market, which cannot be glossed over by vested interests - it's a timebomb ready to explode with global implications.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Yeah apologies for my anti anti smoking bleat will refrain.

My lay investor response would be combination of gov't lead stimulus, especially in China and private response, particularly consumers and include my favourites at the moment being miners.

Not sustainable given the returns that have been made by the average punter in the RECOVERY from the panic induced by X - generation traders, many of whom had never experienced a recession before Now that was chicken little stuff. Being a little facetious as don't pretend to understand high level banking mechanics involved but expect panic had a large influence in the magnitude of the GFC.

Not sure where you're heading but believe unsustainable doesn't lead to imminent and severe market correction.

Now GL - When do you think the i & s m c will occur and to what magnitude? Missus and I going to walk down to Wharf Bar for a beer and a smoke, so will check in later. Good banter

Well there is nothing wrong with being anti-smoking for starters. Fair point you made, but you did reach for a scientific analogy to extrapolate your position. As I'm sure you are aware economics is the bastard of all sciences, I'm sure Gauss would be offended at such a suggestion when people who are interested occasionally hear of the actions of the monetary magicians of Central Banks. If he were alive I'm pretty sure he would be dispelling myths and advocating conspiracy theories left right and centre. If your posts are anything to go by.

You see the problem created here lies and remains to lie with the financial capitalists of Wall St. Don't mis-interpret that because I'm a proud capitalist myself. Yet these people have all of a sudden changed tact and have decided to be recipients of public money. Feeding a chasm beyond their control.

It would be great if I could be bullish and obtain all the affluence that my financial longterm milestones had envisioned A.S.A.P. Everyone who is a member of ASF is in the game for their own reason.

But really my friend, you came onto this thread knocking a poster who would have made you multiple double-triple digit returns had you followed his advice starting from almost three years ago. I'm a little pessimistic myself, so I'm quite happy to sleep in the bed I made.

Maybe you need to think about that?

Anyway have a good night with your bird.

Cheers
Gumby

 

[MrBurns]

I have only about 10% in shares the rest still in cash.

I smell a rat and I wouldn't be suprised to see things go backwards before too long.

Sometimes research can consist of a feeling gained from multiple news items and others opinions collected over as period of time and that research can sometimes be very accurate.

 

[Real1ty]

Gee, I can hardly refuse that one, but I graciously decline your terms

The problem all along is that all the 'yardsticks' for measuring things economically have been watered down to various extents over the years to either suit political or business interests, so even just nominating some data grouping like an stock index to measure the health of an economy is basically useless, but, for the fun of it we shall go with the SP500 (1100) and the FTSE (5300) by 1 Nov 2010 .

Despite the earnings 'better than expected' results, the average SP500 earnings is still down 24% YOY. What we need to see is revenue growth from sales, not cost efficiencies or inventory rebuilds as seen in the GDP figure?

And a chart with fancy lines 'n all..............she's either gonna blow up or down in a big way if you believe that sort of stuff?

Now i'm confused Uncle.

You suggested a bet on the markets price in 1 years time.

I put forward something that could be enforced and gave the bet a real interest. You declined (That's fine and i have no issue with that) but further in your post you suggest for the fun of it we will use my suggestion of the S&P 500 and you have added the FTSE.

Here is where i get confused.You have nominated 1100 for the S&P and 5300 for the FTSE. Are these your targets or are you saying that is the starting point for our fun bet?

Because if they are your targets then your opinion of the markets being lower in 1 year time has changed in the space of a few hours and if they are your suggested starting points, which i highly doubt, then you are weighing the bet heavily in your favour as they are not the current prices.

I do agree with your statement that economic indicators have been watered down, there is no doubt about that but of course we weren't talking about measuring the health of an economy, but rather where the market would be in a years time.
They are linked, sometimes very strongly, others very loosely, now is loose, this time next year i expect them to be tightly linked.

EDIT:I have no idea what number either of those indexes will be next year and i'm not one for really making predictions, i usually leave that for the smarter people but i made a prediction a few months ago on this forum that we will have a V shaped recovery (Depending on your definition of a V, there will be pullbacks on the way up) and will grind our way higher and i will stick to that prediction until i am shown to be wrong.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Now i'm confused Uncle.

You suggested a bet on the markets price in 1 years time.

I put forward something that could be enforced and gave the bet a real interest. You declined (That's fine and i have no issue with that) but further in your post you suggest for the fun of it we will use my suggestion of the S&P 500 and you have added the FTSE.

Here is where i get confused.You have nominated 1100 for the S&P and 5300 for the FTSE. Are these your targets or are you saying that is the starting point for our fun bet?

Because if they are your targets then your opinion of the markets being lower in 1 year time has changed in the space of a few hours and if they are your suggested starting points, which i highly doubt, then you are weighing the bet heavily in your favour as they are not the current prices.

I do agree with your statement that economic indicators have been watered down, there is no doubt about that but of course we weren't talking about measuring the health of an economy, but rather where the market would be in a years time.
They are linked, sometimes very strongly, others very loosely, now is loose, this time next year i expect them to be tightly linked.

Well it will be great to see what unfolds for the markets.
And for this thread?

Whose backing Unc and whose backing the carpetbagger? I'm taking bets!

 

[explod]

Ill have UNC thanks Joe,

opps:............. backing Uncle thanks Gumby Learner

And a good night to you all


..

 

[GumbyLearner]

Ill have UNC thanks Joe,

opps:............. backing Uncle thanks Gumby Learner

And a good night to you all


..

Shh! Me too explod!

 

[grace]

Shh! Me too explod!

My money is on Unc too thanks.

 

[drsmith]

An interesting long term ratio.

http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/com-dow-au.htm

 

[Wysiwyg]

All the doomsayers that have a bunt on this thread slip away into the night and never post again (oh i`m all cash, i`m a teapot etc.). At least Unc. stays with his convictions and always has an interesting yarn.

 

[GumbyLearner]

All the doomsayers that have a bunt on this thread slip away into the night and never post again (oh i`m all cash, i`m a teapot etc.). At least Unc. stays with his convictions and always has an interesting yarn.

what's a doomsayer?

You are throwing a very generalized wide net there wysi.

Look at the thread in it's entirety and you will quickly surmise that Unc is a a poster you ignored?

What do you say??

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Now i'm confused Uncle.

You suggested a bet on the markets price in 1 years time.

I put forward something that could be enforced and gave the bet a real interest. You declined (That's fine and i have no issue with that) but further in your post you suggest for the fun of it we will use my suggestion of the S&P 500 and you have added the FTSE.

Here is where i get confused.You have nominated 1100 for the S&P and 5300 for the FTSE. Are these your targets or are you saying that is the starting point for our fun bet?

Because if they are your targets then your opinion of the markets being lower in 1 year time has changed in the space of a few hours and if they are your suggested starting points, which i highly doubt, then you are weighing the bet heavily in your favour as they are not the current prices.

I do agree with your statement that economic indicators have been watered down, there is no doubt about that but of course we weren't talking about measuring the health of an economy, but rather where the market would be in a years time.
They are linked, sometimes very strongly, others very loosely, now is loose, this time next year i expect them to be tightly linked.

EDIT:I have no idea what number either of those indexes will be next year and i'm not one for really making predictions, i usually leave that for the smarter people but i made a prediction a few months ago on this forum that we will have a V shaped recovery (Depending on your definition of a V, there will be pullbacks on the way up) and will grind our way higher and i will stick to that prediction until i am shown to be wrong.

I'm sorry now that I even flippantly remarked on where a market would be in 12 months time - the fact is I don't know either, nobody does. I declined your terms of the 'bet', but if you want to have something to look back on and have chuckle, coz I've been wrong plenty of times here before, then the figures I quoted are that this time next year the market will not be higher than them . In any event, I probably would have lost interest by then and drifted off somewhere else, I really don't care that much if you read my posts or not.

I've been trying to wean myself off this forum for a while, but it's comments like the last line about 'predictions' which usually draws me from my apathy to comment viz if you make a prediction then put forward your reasoning to support it - grinding higher means nothing to me? Forums are for informed discussion - I would welcome some constructive critique of my posts as sometimes I think I'm just whistling Dixie....woops, I'm bored again (sometimes I feel just like Mr Kruger from Seinfeld http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6kVBGeQeR4)

If you follow the herd you will be just average? Be one step ahead of average?

And to finish, some more junk from the US Commerce Dep

Have a good weekend

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer spending fell sharply in September after the government's cash-for-clunkers program ended, while after-tax incomes fell for the fourth month in a row, the Commerce Department estimated Friday.

Real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending dropped a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in September after a 1% gain in August, the government said. It was the largest decline in spending since December. Real disposable incomes after taxes fell a seasonally adjusted 0.1%, the fourth decline in a row.

Despite overall growth in the economy in the third quarter, incomes aren't growing and jobs are still being lost at a rapid pace.

 

[explod]

Well the Dow made a clear statement this morning, down 240 poins (2.4%) biggest fall since the bottom of the crash from October.

So looks like the sheeple are getting the message now. All the big green results of Thursday down the tubes in one trading session. Gold recovered from a down tick during the session too. Ingrediants very bearish for next week IMHO