Imminent and severe market correction

[Timmy]

There could always be a wager on the future - global equity markets will be lower than they are now, this time next year?

There's the 'imminent' conundrum again, a one-year horizon probably doesn't qualify as imminent for traders?

 

[Real1ty]

There could always be a wager on the future - global equity markets will be lower than they are now, this time next year?

I will take that bet. Which market will be the indicator, S&P500?

If i am right, you no longer post here under any user name.

If i am wrong i will no longer post here under any user name.

Deal?

 

[drsmith]

If i am right, you no longer post here under any user name.

If i am wrong i will no longer post here under any user name.

That's a bet from which someone can only lose.

 

[Out Too Soon]

That's a bet from which someone can only lose.

& both your opinions are valuable to us so drop the bet

 

[swm79]

glad i'm not the only one seeing GS's little gambit pay off BIG time for them.

nice set up guys...

 

[explod]

For my take I have not seen the word Imminent As a time thing, to me it says close at hand and that it willhappen . (Dictionary "likely to occur at any moment, her death is imminent) Yes we tend to intuit "immediately", but that is not the word being examined

I look at the Dow as my big picture guide, what the Dow does we do and look no further than the last 3 or 4 days. From the October crash the Dow has recovered little more than a third of its loss from 14,000 The uptick from 6400 has (as has been pointed out by Uncle in previous posts) seen volume halve. It is saying that very reduced interest in this stock market rise. Some say the fed are propping at particular technical levels. Be that as it may.

The rise from 01/02 was built on cheap money so of course there was no substance and it crashed in 08. This latest rise was built on both cheap money and huge stimulas courtesy the US taxpayers. They are fed up and the Fed point blank now refuses to answer straight questions etc., etc., etc...

A crash is imminent (maybe tomorrow or they can bluff through for 12 months yet) and it will be servere

On the charts, value support kicks in around 4,000 the floor of support at 2,000 but do not be surprised if it overshoots to 1,000

In this most intersting contest I will back uncle

and bet he will not be the one leaving

cheers on this lovely Friday on the Peninsular, lovely mix of rain and sunshine at 25 degeees.

 

[Wysiwyg]

On the charts, value support kicks in around 4,000 the floor of support at 2,000 but do not be surprised if it overshoots to 1,000

Extra-terrestrial alien invasion is also a possibility and ironically enough would cause such an index value.


p.s. anything you say can and will be held against you in a court of law.

 

[Timmy]

I wont get into a semantic argument explod, but will just say that I wont use your definition of imminent but rather will stick with what the rest of the English speaking world accept as its reasonable definition.

Here is a Google link to "define: imminent"
http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=define:+imminent&btnG=Google+Search&meta=&aq=f&oq=

Having your own personal definition may help to avoid having to admit that the calls made here are vague and imprecise. Nothing wrong with that, but just helpful to recognise them for what they are, background market commentary.

 

[GumbyLearner]

I think the longevity of this thread is a testament to it's originator. How many views, contributors and how long has it been on ASF?

And Unc hasn't even used the word prop once in any of his posts with regard to the global banking industry or the automobile sectors since he gave birth to this Momma of a thread.

Anyway I'm sure he doesn't work for Gold man Sucks or GMAC Financial. So I wouldn't be dismissing his posts or sentiments just yet.

Definitions of prop on the Web:

* a support placed beneath or against something to keep it from shaking or falling
* property: any movable articles or objects used on the set of a play or movie; "before every scene he ran down his checklist of props"
* prop up: support by placing against something solid or rigid; "shore and buttress an old building"
* airplane propeller: a propeller that rotates to push against air
wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwn

 

[Donga]

I try to post some sort of objective analysis of data, after stripping out all of the headline grabbing crap which the permabull ra ra cheer sqaud base their justification for only going long?

For ie, Chinese GDP. If ever there was a set of basically total garbage purporting to be an indicator of growth! They measure how much is produced instead of how much is consumed (sold). So if they throw $500B at the productive sector in stimulis then it will show a growth in GDP - simple. But has it resulted in someone somewhere consuming the product? It certainly has not been exported to the US or Japan or Europe ie global trade figures? Probably still sitting some factory in some province somewhere?

US GDP - ditto - as long as they keep the gov handouts going then we will get figures like this, but it is ultimately unsustainable as long as the budget is paying out more than it is receiving (see previous chart on Jaws of Death)

The UK is still a basket case - no rebound there yet - ie the market has priced in some ways ahead of itself.

US unemployment and continuing claims does not indicate a recovery - still! Goldman Sachs has done an excellent job in raising global stock markets - the ultimate in leverage.

Global markets in commercial real estate have yet to even get close to bottoming out, in fact the worst is yet to come for them, and will ultimately ensure a severe global depression and capitulation of the current capitalist system as we know it?

Australia's reliance on China means we are at the mercy of a corrupt junta controlling some sort of hybrid experiment of pseudo communism and moral hazard capitalism of the worst type. We really do have all our eggs in the Chinese basket, because we have stuff all left to sell to the rest of the world other than what comes out of big hole in the ground?

Trade what you see but plan for reality?

Uncle F, perhap you just like being a bear, a glass half empty guy as your assessments above can be challenged on so many levels, e.g. myriad of Chinese data will show how much is being consumed (cars, telephones, TVs, housing). Perhaps you see infrastructure as production until people start using the subways etc. The business I'm involved in is booming in China, health care. Having travelled to China last year to visit my brother who lives there, I find your comments on pseudo communism, moral hazard capitalism and corrupt junta as naive and condescending.

The "jaws of death" charts I've seen remind me of Nostradamus, fanciful but useless in predicting the immediate future. Pity you didn't get time to respond to my other post requesting a redraw of your chart using a different year base on the DOW and XAO comparatives. Nor did you advise what you thought the divergence represented in any case. Hint: could it be that Australia has simply outperformed US economy or resources have been more important than American motor vehicles, etc. Not sure what you were thinking - just two lines with a dubious base that showed XAO had outperfomed DOW, so what?

Not just your good self Uncle F, but so many posts go back on this thread about imminent and severe etc and the same people come out and bang away again, without ever saying oh shucks got that wrong last time. I wouldn't mind but find much of the purported logic and reasoning fairly shallow, often conspiracy laced about official data and ulterior motives.

Now good bear talk is fun, but please don't expect me to take you guys seriously until you get it right at least once.

 

[explod]

I wont get into a semantic argument explod, but will just say that I wont use your definition of imminent but rather will stick with what the rest of the English speaking world accept as its reasonable definition.

Here is a Google link to "define: imminent"
http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=define:+imminent&btnG=Google+Search&meta=&aq=f&oq=

Having your own personal definition may help to avoid having to admit that the calls made here are vague and imprecise. Nothing wrong with that, but just helpful to recognise them for what they are, background market commentary.

My definition just happened to be from Google also, read it as you want and so will I, but the one read by me is certainly not my creation. Nor is my technical and fundamental understanding of Wall Street.

 

[swm79]

the Wall Street equivalent of circle jerking

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/Circle%20Jerk.png

except for Calyon.... whats wrong there guys? bitter? unloved?

 

[Cam]

so many posts go back on this thread about imminent and severe etc and the same people come out and bang away again, without ever saying oh shucks got that wrong last time.

Yeah, but as the saying goes, "if you can't predict right, you had better predict often."

 

[nomore4s]

Now good bear talk is fun, but please don't expect me to take you guys seriously until you get it right at least once.

Don't worry, when they do get it right, we will all know about it and then probably keep hearing about it for years:

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I will take that bet. Which market will be the indicator, S&P500?

If i am right, you no longer post here under any user name.

If i am wrong i will no longer post here under any user name.

Deal?

Gee, I can hardly refuse that one, but I graciously decline your terms

The problem all along is that all the 'yardsticks' for measuring things economically have been watered down to various extents over the years to either suit political or business interests, so even just nominating some data grouping like an stock index to measure the health of an economy is basically useless, but, for the fun of it we shall go with the SP500 (1100) and the FTSE (5300) by 1 Nov 2010 .

Despite the earnings 'better than expected' results, the average SP500 earnings is still down 24% YOY. What we need to see is revenue growth from sales, not cost efficiencies or inventory rebuilds as seen in the GDP figure?

And a chart with fancy lines 'n all..............she's either gonna blow up or down in a big way if you believe that sort of stuff?

 

[Timmy]

Nothing wrong with that, but just helpful to recognise them for what they are, background market commentary.

Sorry, that should read "background economic commentary".

 

[explod]

There is no prediction of anything, and statements of most are backed up by facts that can be substantiated.

I say that the stock markets and financial systems will collapse period for all the reasons I have stated for the last three years and have known for many more years back from that, "it is imminent and it will be servere" IMVHO and I respect yours without going crook or taking up bets. Democracy is a wonderful thing

In the meantime the volatility is creating some very good trading opportunities.

 

[Timmy]

I say that the stock markets and financial systems will collapse period for all the reasons I have stated for the last three years and have known for many more years back from that, "it is imminent and it will be servere" IMVHO and I respect yours without going crook or taking up bets. Democracy is a wonderful thing

Agree, explod, nothing wrong with having a view. You have been on the right side of gold for a long time now.

 

[Timmy]

the Wall Street equivalent of circle jerking

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/Circle%20Jerk.png

except for Calyon.... whats wrong there guys? bitter? unloved?

swm, do you read ZH?
I do, every day. The depth of knowledge of some of those posters to the blog is excellent and great learning material. BUT, you are right about the tone of bitterness etc. Very wearing after a while.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Uncle F, perhap you just like being a bear, a glass half empty guy as your assessments above can be challenged on so many levels, e.g. myriad of Chinese data will show how much is being consumed (cars, telephones, TVs, housing). Perhaps you see infrastructure as production until people start using the subways etc. The business I'm involved in is booming in China, health care. Having travelled to China last year to visit my brother who lives there, I find your comments on pseudo communism, moral hazard capitalism and corrupt junta as naive and condescending.

It is corrupt. Is there a waiting list for organ transplants for party elite?

How is Chinese GDP data calculated then? How is it that what takes other countries several weeks to determine just preliminary data only takes China several days to calculate?

The "jaws of death" charts I've seen remind me of Nostradamus, fanciful but useless in predicting the immediate future. Pity you didn't get time to respond to my other post requesting a redraw of your chart using a different year base on the DOW and XAO comparatives. Nor did you advise what you thought the divergence represented in any case. Hint: could it be that Australia has simply outperformed US economy or resources have been more important than American motor vehicles, etc. Not sure what you were thinking - just two lines with a dubious base that showed XAO had outperfomed DOW, so what?

The 'Jaws of death' chart referring to the US income/expenditure data is straight from the fed itself, resulting in a small matter of a deficit of some $1.4TRILLION and still trending in the wrong direction.

As for the currency, if we were/are better performed than the US then why are we not already at parity, having not reached that mark previously when the terms of trade were supposedly much better?

Stimulis measures are ephemeral, and have not resulted in a reduction in under or un employment, so how much more will be needed?

45 million Americans, 1in 6, are below the poverty line; 18 million are underemployed; they now get a full year of unemployment benefits before they drop off the statistics?

Not just your good self Uncle F, but so many posts go back on this thread about imminent and severe etc and the same people come out and bang away again, without ever saying oh shucks got that wrong last time. I wouldn't mind but find much of the purported logic and reasoning fairly shallow, often conspiracy laced about official data and ulterior motives.

Now good bear talk is fun, but please don't expect me to take you guys seriously until you get it right at least once.

Do you seriously think that there is no connection between the US Fed, Treasury & Goldman Sachs that gives GS an unfair advantage to everyone else on the planet? All been said before.......ad nauseum.....

I can assure you, any bearish posts based on factual data is more than offset by bullish post based on hope & rhetoric.