Imminent and severe market correction

[seasprite]

here's my fancy diagram , I went 70% cash on the 22nd and there was no way I was buying on friday even with the +199, the cross to 9763 wasn't convincing enough and USD/INX was just hanging about with no where to go. If the DOW drops below my new 2nd target I'm out.

 

[Donga]

Is it Donga or Drongo?

Show some respect to the creator of this thread (Uncle Festivus).

If you read the whole thread (instead of just mouthing off) you would know that Uncle Festivus has already got it right once (Global Financial Crisis) and is now going for his quinella.

But really my friend, you came onto this thread knocking a poster who would have made you multiple double-triple digit returns had you followed his advice starting from almost three years ago. I'm a little pessimistic myself, so I'm quite happy to sleep in the bed I made.

Whoa, have I stumbled into cult territory "don't challenge the master" type stuff. No intention of taking out the man, just the sentiments. Have noticed people here ask a lot of quesions but don't like answering them. Never mind, still some interesting posts.

Don't pretend to be a master in economics or finer details of share trading, however have been around the block a few times and not done too badly.

o Fact is over the long term indices rise because global economy keeps expanding. How efficient and how fair is what we like discussing with mates and on ASF threads.

o If you're going to buy and sell whenever you think market is heading for a major correction or rise, you wanna be pretty damn good cos it does rise over time so you're swimming against the tide when you sell. Then there is the timing of re-entry.

o So applying this to GFC - I held all the way down, so yes Macquack or is it Goose, I didn't bail out when Uncle F rang the bell in April 2007 when the XAO was around 5700, nor did I sell when it hit the floor finally at 3100 in early 2008.

o Market is now 4500-4700 and I'm back in the black, over the high achieved when XAO achieved 6700 in late 2007.

o Could not have done this if I'd been out of the market when it reached 3800 and the Imminent & Severe cult started to call the end of the world again. This period has been terrific for selective oversold small/mid cap miners, and many have a way to go yet in outperforming XAO mid term IMO.

If you look back at posts in August you'll see my predictions and still stick by them, 5000 by Christmas with a few minor corrections along the way.

I'm not been an active trader except for last few months, so respect the folk that do this for a living and appreciate you play a more complicated game than me. Just not convinced that selling off the portfolio and trying to time the re-entry is a good strategy and sounds like a poor option to LT or daily trading. Expect most of you do both so perhaps you're not really selling off your entire share holdings?

And thanks GL, had a good night with my bird - beer and ciggies were most enjoyable and will probably imbibe again after my run this arvo

 

[explod]

DONGA old son if you want to get with it a bit its always good to fill between the ears with some information full of ion. Not read much, well in the big game that is dangerous. I dont' give recommendations, first you cant and second I am often wrong.

But if I thought like you I would get my hands on a book straight away called "Financial Armeggedon by Micheal Panzer, think it was first published about 06, he has been spot on and is still spot on and he also has a Web page under the same name. Everything he states is backed by full authority of sources which you can back test. Ought to be able to get a copy second hand now though I would not part with my copy. When you have read that come back and I will tell you what else I would read in your position, if I was in your position.

so Donga, my message, GET SOME GOOD ION BETWEEN THE EARS PAL

First good hot day down here on the beautiful peninsula today and the VB's are going down very well.

 

[Donga]

Thanks Explod I'll take a look though note my play fund which has doubled in value over past few months now represents around 15% of our investments and my day job more than caters for my short and long term needs. I have no intention of living off the XAO.

I have enough ION for my industry, global understanding having lived abroad extensively and investments, but doesn't mean I can't learn more.

Still not seeing any quantified predictions from the bears, but getting used to that and the high degree of SMUGNESS around given the low level of guidance other than how bad the global economy is. Hope our man Panzer did well with his book and tend to place a little more respect with the likes of our top economists in Canberra and industry who don't write books for a living.

We'll saunter down to Manly again after the rugby and hope one of our teams can get up tonight.

 

[explod]

Thanks Explod I'll take a look though note my play fund which has doubled in value over past few months now represents around 15% of our investments and my day job more than caters for my short and long term needs. I have no intention of living off the XAO.

I have enough ION for my industry, global understanding having lived abroad extensively and investments, but doesn't mean I can't learn more.

Still not seeing any quantified predictions from the bears, but getting used to that and the high degree of SMUGNESS around given the low level of guidance other than how bad the global economy is. Hope our man Panzer did well with his book and tend to place a little more respect with the likes of our top economists in Canberra and industry who don't write books for a living.

We'll saunter down to Manly again after the rugby and hope one of our teams can get up tonight.

Was not talking of making money Donga, anyone can put the head down and do that. Few of us in fact are bears, most are super optimists. But some of us do know that the financial system is in a mess and a huge correction has to occur based on reality. Just thought you would like to find out about it for yourself so that you can judge us with a bit more au*****ity.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Whoa, have I stumbled into cult territory "don't challenge the master" type stuff. No intention of taking out the man, just the sentiments. Have noticed people here ask a lot of quesions but don't like answering them. Never mind, still some interesting posts.

Don't pretend to be a master in economics or finer details of share trading, however have been around the block a few times and not done too badly.

o Fact is over the long term indices rise because global economy keeps expanding. How efficient and how fair is what we like discussing with mates and on ASF threads.

o If you're going to buy and sell whenever you think market is heading for a major correction or rise, you wanna be pretty damn good cos it does rise over time so you're swimming against the tide when you sell. Then there is the timing of re-entry.

o So applying this to GFC - I held all the way down, so yes Macquack or is it Goose, I didn't bail out when Uncle F rang the bell in April 2007 when the XAO was around 5700, nor did I sell when it hit the floor finally at 3100 in early 2008.

o Market is now 4500-4700 and I'm back in the black, over the high achieved when XAO achieved 6700 in late 2007.

o Could not have done this if I'd been out of the market when it reached 3800 and the Imminent & Severe cult started to call the end of the world again. This period has been terrific for selective oversold small/mid cap miners, and many have a way to go yet in outperforming XAO mid term IMO.

If you look back at posts in August you'll see my predictions and still stick by them, 5000 by Christmas with a few minor corrections along the way.

I'm not been an active trader except for last few months, so respect the folk that do this for a living and appreciate you play a more complicated game than me. Just not convinced that selling off the portfolio and trying to time the re-entry is a good strategy and sounds like a poor option to LT or daily trading. Expect most of you do both so perhaps you're not really selling off your entire share holdings?

And thanks GL, had a good night with my bird - beer and ciggies were most enjoyable and will probably imbibe again after my run this arvo

That's a pretty outlandish statement Donga.
I don't see how you can accuse anyone of cult-like behaviour for posting their own opinion or views on the future of the global economy whether they are bullish or bearish. I just tend to disagree with a lot of the Bulls with regard to this matter.

Just like explod has suggested some reading, I'll also offer another title you should consider.

Combatting Cult Mind Control by Steven Hassan.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combatting_Cult_Mind_Control

It's worth a read.

Just my

 

[Donga]

That's a pretty outlandish statement Donga.
I don't see how you can accuse anyone of cult-like behaviour for posting their own opinion or views on the future of the global economy whether they are bullish or bearish. I just tend to disagree with a lot of the Bulls with regard to this matter.

This is getting a little silly.

1. Posting information and oinions is what ASF is all about. My response was directed at the quotes referring to claims that I didn't respect Uncle F after he raised i & s m c early 2007, hence my cult analogy. No disrespect to Uncle intended, just don't agree with his current assessments and couldn't help commenting on the way you and explod reacted.

2. This is a thread within a stock market forum and I approach it as being mostly about investment strategies, especially as to whether:

a) we are facing i & s m c, which I'm challlenging and have done since August and

b) even if a major correction, my view to ride it out as I have in the past. I also referred to the i & s m c mutterings of the past few months while bulls made hay and some others were cashed up

3. Still waiting for some quantification from those who belive in i & s m c.

Not sure where this is heading, guess it wil be all be overtaken by other posts. Not going to recommend recent books I've read as prefer quite different subject matters. I did do a quick google on Panzer and his book and others may wish to get the gist of his views see http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/2007/0303.html

I'll ride out this correction no matter how far it falls and have tried to explain my rationale and provide a counter balance as I worry about folk who might panic in an ongoing recovery market (US has just come out of their recession if you believe the data) albeit within a flawed financial system.

Feeling somewhat vindicated after my August intrusions, let's see where we are in another two months time.

Best wishes in your pursuits.

 

[drsmith]

Feeling somewhat vindicated after my August intrusions, let's see where we are in another two months time.

4000.

My confidence in that number is not great but it's higher than an outcome of 5000. Thursday's rally was a one day wonder unlike the other uplegs since the bottom in March.

 

[Sean K]

I'm in the Marc Faber school at the moment. Stocks and commodities will be well supported as the economy worsens and more 'stimulous' is thrown at the problem until inflation really kicks in and the current system collapses. It's 10 or so years away perhaps.

 

[Timmy]

This is getting a little silly.

1. Posting information and oinions is what ASF is all about.

This thread is basically an exercise in defending a view. Nothing wrong with having a view, but the confirmation bias here does become wearing if your expectation of the thread is for something else. It is best viewed as "The case for a bearish view".
To his credit, Uncle F. has said that the 'imminent' part of the title is probably past its use-by date (post #4501), a point his followers haven't caught onto yet, or have chosen to disregard.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

To his credit, Uncle F. has said that the 'imminent' part of the title is probably past its use-by date (post #4501), a point his followers haven't caught onto yet, or have chosen to disregard.

LOL - 'Look into my eyes, you are feeling sleeeeeeeepy'

That cracked me up! If you 'follow' me you can get chicks like this - me with one of my 'followers'

 

[Macquack]

LOL - 'Look into my eyes, you are feeling sleeeeeeeepy'

That cracked me up! If you 'follow' me you can get chicks like this - me with one of my 'followers'

Uncle Festivus/Guru, where do I sign up?

 

[Timmy]

LOL - 'Look into my eyes, you are feeling sleeeeeeeepy'

That cracked me up! If you 'follow' me you can get chicks like this - me with one of my 'followers'

I am so there. Getting fitted for the orange robe as we speak!

 

[Gordon Gekko]

I am so there. Getting fitted for the orange robe as we speak!

Hey Uncle, I had no idea that you are from Canada!
You have just gone to all star status in my book!

Uncle 1
Drongo 0

In my book anyway


G

 

[noirua]

After dramatic falls in mining stocks in Europe and America on Friday, expect falls of up to 15% on Monday on the ASX, including major stocks.

 

[oztrades]

Scared of US markets? Then bring your money here because we are going to leave the US behind. Appreciating dollar, less worldwide debt, aussie enthusiasm, trade capacity and better markets. Im buying.

Interesting 3 month chart follows for your information. Cheers

 

[Aussiest]

I held all the way down, so yes Macquack or is it Goose, I didn't bail out when Uncle F rang the bell in April 2007 when the XAO was around 5700, nor did I sell when it hit the floor finally at 3100 in early 2008.

But, wouldn't you have been better to sell and then re-enter at a much lower point? Nobody knew how low it was going to go, but for experienced traders (not saying i was one back then), the signs must have been there.

Imagine how in the black you'd be now Anyway, well done for not wigging out if you had faith in your shares.

 

[MrBurns]

After dramatic falls in mining stocks in Europe and America on Friday, expect falls of up to 15% on Monday on the ASX, including major stocks.

Tell you what, if it really tanks tomorrow I think I might be buying.

 

[oztrades]

But, wouldn't you have been better to sell and then re-enter at a much lower point? Nobody knew how low it was going to go, but for experienced traders (not saying i was one back then), the signs must have been there.

Imagine how in the black you'd be now Anyway, well done for not wigging out if you had faith in your shares.

Quite agree Aussiest but you do say "Nobody knew how low it was going to go".
Unlike today where we are climbing out of recession back then was the height of the boom so it would have been more prudent to sell and wait for the bottom.
Now its ride the volatility wave all the way up till the same signs that were present in stock valuations rear their ugly head again. So far the 2 minor corrections we have had wouldnt pay the brokerage fees IMHO.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Tell you what, if it really tanks tomorrow I think I might be buying.

Plenty catch falling knives.