Imminent and severe market correction

[nunthewiser]

Stick to the stops, and the chart language, .

Amen.


Well done

 

[WinnieBlues]

Um i know why the markets are up and yes agree it is a fabricated fairyland .

Whats that got to do with trading ?

Can you show me figures for this alleged exodus on wall street or is that merely an opinion or an opinion off some doom and gloom media article?

Ordinary People always get crushed , thats not my problem nor is it my concern as a trader ... Goes with the turf....... If the game isnt morally suitable for you i suggest you pick another form of wealth creation .

No offense intended

search for the buy to sell ratios of dow and sp companies....

good luck for your trading.....i am out after buying macq gp at 16 bucks in march....sold recently...

the drums r beating...don't be the last to the exits

 

[nunthewiser]

good luck for your trading.....i am out after buying macq gp at 16 bucks in march....sold recently...

the drums r beating...don't be the last to the exits

And you can prove that legendary hindsight trade?

In fact from the reasons you gave already for staying out of the market ie manufactured rise etc im rather surprised you entered anything SEEING as the reasons for the manufactured rise were available when you ALLEGEDLY bought at the lows .... whats changed ? Still same reasons then , same reasons now.

I hear Drums , i am not a fool but i do have a plan and happy to stick to MY strategies ..... However i think it would be rather foolish to listen to some anomonous poster thats obviously great in hindsight trading and sell everything on his say so ......... I think i,m better off sticking with my trailing stops and other forms of personal guesstimation methods and leave the genius stuff to others that can call it afterwards.

Lol re last to the exit ....... I dont have the benefit of hindsight selling or buying but am very aware of how much Profit or how much loss i am happy to take and ok with hitting the button on either scenario.

 

[WinnieBlues]

And you can prove that legendary hindsight trade?

In fact from the reasons you gave already for staying out of the market ie manufactured rise etc im rather surprised you entered anything SEEING as the reasons for the manufactured rise were available when you ALLEGEDLY bought at the lows .... whats changed ? Still same reasons then , same reasons now.

I hear Drums , i am not a fool but i do have a plan and happy to stick to MY strategies ..... However i think it would be rather foolish to listen to some anomonous poster thats obviously great in hindsight trading and sell everything on his say so ......... I think i,m better off sticking with my trailing stops and other forms of personal guesstimation methods and leave the genius stuff to others that can call it afterwards.

Lol re last to the exit ....... I dont have the benefit of hindsight selling or buying but am very aware of how much Profit or how much loss i am happy to take and ok with hitting the button on either scenario.

Nows not the time to be playing games with the markets IMO......massive govt stimulus was always going to see a massive rally from march onwards....the g20 meeting and mark to market changes in the US saw to that....

good luck in your trading mate.....

tight stops and all that...

 

[Donga]

Looking into 2012........from celente....google him....he has been amazingly correct in the last 20 years....and predicted the course of events over the last 2 years...this is part of his latest report.....

Episode V Autumn 2012, the “Greatest Depression” has spread worldwide. Billions are unemployed, homeless and desperate. Countries bankrupt, trade pacts broken, tariffs rise, borders close.
Protectionist, nationalist and anti-globalization movements have moved out of the margins and into the mainstream. Immigrants brought in during boom times ”” blamed for bringing down wages, stealing jobs and rising crime ”” are being rounded up and deported.
Despite differences between the 1930’s Great Depression and today’s “Greatest Depression,” unsettling similarities conjure up memories of pre-World War II. From the United Kingdom to Russia, war drums eerily beat.

etc etc

I am glad i am in 100% cash now....this is serious, and will affect all of us......this is more than the market.......this is nation changing stuff...massive deflation ahead in almost every asset class, bar gold and safe currencies...

Whoa loosen up fella. Could paint you a similar picture pretty much at anytime in history as we know it. You're not recognising the progress in recent years let alone last few months economically in the world. I love the mining activity in West Africa. Maybe you need a spell in some of these countries to see how people are reallly living and give up your subscription to armchair journos.

Hey Nyden - you're right that I didn't check the level before I posted LOL, however was rooting for the good guys after the bell, as for a while it looked like we'd get within coo-ee of a 4600 close.

So tomorrow will be interesting, obviously I'm expecting some bounce As a LT guy am not fussed as the markets do go up forever, depending on time frame thanks nomore4s, at least until armegeddon which I'm not counting on soon, Celente's (who is this guy) prophecies notwithstanding.

 

[nunthewiser]

Jobless Claims
Oct 29 GDP
Oct 29 President Obama Speech
Oct 29 EIA Natural Gas Report
Oct 29 Money Supply
Oct 29 Equity Settlements
Oct 29 ALL - 5 Yr TIPS Settlement
Oct 29 President Obama Speech


Should be an intresting night at least ........... got to love volatility.

 

[Putty7]

I won't deny the fact that the market could retreat in the short term but I won't jump on the doom and gloom bandwagon just yet, Celente hopefully has better insite than Nostradamus, he was sure we would be fighting each other with sticks and stones 10 years ago, as for this recession comparing to the great depression, people were lucky to be able to buy a bag of flour during the great depression of the 30's to make bread, that is not the case today, the world was less advanced and less populated, traders back then were traders, not as many of the big institutions manipulating the market as we have now, I think things have to be taken into perspective when making comparisons, but I'm fairly new to trading and my opinions may be out of line with the general consensus.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

"he was sure we would be fighting each other with sticks and stones 10 years ago, as for this recession comparing to the great depression, people were lucky to be able to buy a bag of flour during the great depression of the 30's to make bread"




I wonder if people actually realize the amount of stock that stores such as coles or wollies have in our recent age of you want it you got it.
Supply chain management has been massive in the profitability of these stores, but if **** hits the fan these stores will be cleaned out in hours and good luck after that.
Not saying this will happen far from it but if there is a national emergency for what ever reason would it be any different than times past with regard to your availability of flour example?


G

 

[skc]

nun.....the only reason the markets up is through fabricated govt spending, stimulus and QE

we are majorly screwed.....your world and my world will change forever...

am sitting 100% cash at the moment

this won't be pretty....most of the smart movers on wall street have already made it to the exits

ordinary people are going to get crushed, as usual

If you truly believe what you are saying, and you are of course entitle to your own opinion, then being in 100% cash is just plain silly. Go exchange that for food, water, underground shelter, gun and ammunition before the shelves are empty. Then exchange whatever is left in to physical gold bullion.

Here's a quote that I like:

I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones. Albert Einstein

 

[Putty7]

You make a very good point Gordon, with the efficiency in which information is sent and received now compared to the 30's, a national emergency that cleaned out the stores would have to be almost totally unseen until it happened, not impossible but we have more transperency and clarity into these events at our fingertips now compared to then.

The likes of farmers, truck drivers, vegie growers, butchers, bakers etc etc having to go off to fight a war and leaving us with a skilled labour shortage is pretty much a thing of the past (maybe) with conventional warfare being a different animal to the world war days.

I'm not an expert and don't claim to be, things are different in most ways now compared to the 30's and 40's which people like to throw in as a comparison, lets face it if the mailman didn't show up back then you were stuffed for the day, now if your computer goes down you are stuffed until you can get it fixed or get to Harvey Norman to buy a new one

Things are not as rosey as we are being lead to believe, sure I agree with that, but to pull all your money out of the market when opportunities are still around on a daily basis to make money, well that's not for me, good traders trade in all markets and seem to do it well, something I still have to learn.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

We'll all be rooned, in the second leg of the Global Financial Crisis.

An Islamist hit on the US, a collapse of building figures and banks in the US, a plague or flu, and numerous other possible disasters may be the fundamental drivers of a further imminent and severe market correction.

gg

 

[Nyden]

We'll all be rooned, in the second leg of the Global Financial Crisis.

An Islamist hit on the US, a collapse of building figures and banks in the US, a plague or flu, and numerous other possible disasters may be the fundamental drivers of a further imminent and severe market correction.

gg

But, is this what you want to happen, or is it what you expect to happen? There still seems to be a fair bit of sour-grapes about, perhaps those that missed much, if not all of the recent run up - are now wishing ill against those that enjoyed it?

I'm not saying which way it will go tonight, or what will happen next week - all I'm saying is that people should be looking for signs for either the downside, or the upside. A trend really is quite simple to follow, and if you consider yourself a long term investor, then you need to have a plan. A vague notion that the world will end simply isn't enough, I'm afraid. Anyone with that sort of thought-process, just may end up way behind in an inflationary environment.

 

[explod]

But, is this what you want to happen, or is it what you expect to happen? There still seems to be a fair bit of sour-grapes about, perhaps those that missed much, if not all of the recent run up - are now wishing ill against those that enjoyed it?

I'm not saying which way it will go tonight, or what will happen next week - all I'm saying is that people should be looking for signs for either the downside, or the upside. A trend really is quite simple to follow, and if you consider yourself a long term investor, then you need to have a plan. A vague notion that the world will end simply isn't enough, I'm afraid. Anyone with that sort of thought-process, just may end up way behind in an inflationary environment.

Now to be fair, if you read back on his posts, Uncle has provided very clear evidence that we are indeed in trecherous waters. Debt to GDP is way out of whack (just for one). It is not possible in one post to restate the obvious that has been well laboured in previous posts. We give credit that posters are congnisant with what has been said in plain and strong terms.

I am a trend follower and have recently made some fantastic trades, but with a watchful eye on the big picture. In times like these I stick to small speckies and that has paid off. If you look at the blue chips, they have gone up, but overll by not a great deal.

I have picked up enough to be aware that Uncle is a very selective and savvy investor. Not just sticking up for him. But if you are going to go right off suggest you look at the target with a bit of backtesting before pulling the trigger.

 

[nunthewiser]

loves this thread on red days ......... um Guys can hardly call it a correction /crash as yet ....... currently sitting on a major pivot point .

Will it go quiet here if it bounces off it ?

The sky is still there , no need for sqwarking yet.

nun.....the only reason the markets up is through fabricated govt spending, stimulus and QE

we are majorly screwed.....your world and my world will change forever...

am sitting 100% cash at the moment

this won't be pretty....most of the smart movers on wall street have already made it to the exits

ordinary people are going to get crushed, as usual

Stick to the stops, and the chart language, .

AMEN!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Um i know why the markets are up and yes agree it is a fabricated fairyland .

Whats that got to do with trading ?

Can you show me figures for this alleged exodus on wall street or is that merely an opinion or an opinion off some doom and gloom media article?

Ordinary People always get crushed , thats not my problem nor is it my concern as a trader ... Goes with the turf....... If the game isnt morally suitable for you i suggest you pick another form of wealth creation .

No offense intended

Check this out every week end to see if the "people who know" are confident enough to buy in earnest, and the pic below of the last 3 weeks of data for insider buy/sell -

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-insider1.html?mod=mdc_h_usshl

Not having a go at you personally Nun, just general comments.

From the start of this thread there has been confusion about the content posted & how it relates to trading. Generally, unless stated by the poster, there is very little correlation with data trends analysis posted here and how the poster trades on a daily basis. I try to post some sort of objective analysis of data, after stripping out all of the headline grabbing crap which the permabull ra ra cheer sqaud base their justification for only going long?

For ie, Chinese GDP. If ever there was a set of basically total garbage purporting to be an indicator of growth! They measure how much is produced instead of how much is consumed (sold). So if they throw $500B at the productive sector in stimulis then it will show a growth in GDP - simple. But has it resulted in someone somewhere consuming the product? It certainly has not been exported to the US or Japan or Europe ie global trade figures? Probably still sitting some factory in some province somewhere?

US GDP - ditto - as long as they keep the gov handouts going then we will get figures like this, but it is ultimately unsustainable as long as the budget is paying out more than it is receiving (see previous chart on Jaws of Death)

The UK is still a basket case - no rebound there yet - ie the market has priced in some ways ahead of itself.

US unemployment and continuing claims does not indicate a recovery - still! Goldman Sachs has done an excellent job in raising global stock markets - the ultimate in leverage.

Global markets in commercial real estate have yet to even get close to bottoming out, in fact the worst is yet to come for them, and will ultimately ensure a severe global depression and capitulation of the current capitalist system as we know it?

All these revolving credit loans (if they can get one in the first place) will have to be rolled over, or if the data is correct then they will not. Have a look at what the implications are if CIT was to do a Lehmans.

Australia's reliance on China means we are at the mercy of a corrupt junta controlling some sort of hybrid experiment of pseudo communism and moral hazard capitalism of the worst type. We really do have all our eggs in the Chinese basket, because we have stuff all left to sell to the rest of the world other than what comes out of big hole in the ground?

Aussie banks now have $32BILLION set aside for dodgy loans - not a good confirmation indicator for the 'all is good again' lemming crowd?

Trade what you see but plan for reality?

 

[swm79]

US unemployment and continuing claims does not indicate a recovery - still! Goldman Sachs has done an excellent job in raising global stock markets - the ultimate in leverage.

did anyone else think that Goldman Sachs revising their GDP figure down only a few days or so before the official figures come out... which are 30% ABOVE their figure

betting against themselves maybe...

 

[Timmy]

did anyone else think that Goldman Sachs revising their GDP figure down only a few days or so before the official figures come out... which are 30% ABOVE their figure

First I heard of it was at about 9.30 am (NY time) Wednesday, so 23 hours before the official release (but I don't think I am the first guy Goldman's call when they have market-moving info )

betting against themselves maybe...

This GS revision was released into an already falling equity market, but the Wednesday session was when the big fall to 1035 (ES) took place, the week's lows (so far anyway ).

Could it have been GS tempting the sellers (successfully), loading up on Wednesday into the selling, and then taking their profits on Thursday when the GDP comes out better than even previous consensus forecasts?
I am not into conspiracies ... but if I was it was a pretty cool move.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

did anyone else think that Goldman Sachs revising their GDP figure down only a few days or so before the official figures come out... which are 30% ABOVE their figure

betting against themselves maybe...

The Dow chart was at risk of 2 weekly doji's at the 50% retracement level, macd toppping out, so they need a ranging market to continue to make the terrabucks, so a bit more manipulation won't hurt anybody, eh? The whole week has been one of setting up for the better GDP figures that the insiders were privy to?

 

[Timmy]

From the start of this thread there has been confusion about the content posted & how it relates to trading. Generally, unless stated by the poster, there is very little correlation with data trends analysis posted here and how the poster trades on a daily basis. I try to post some sort of objective analysis of data, after stripping out all of the headline grabbing crap which the permabull ra ra cheer sqaud base their justification for only going long?

Just bolded this bit Uncle F.
When the thread has a title that includes "Imminent correction", quite understandable if people read it as that is what the bears on the thread are expecting and trading for. So good you cleared this up.

I, for one, read this thread as a good exposition of the bear case. And, generally, the case is well put, logical, and cogent. Just the 'imminent' bit is where the problem lies .... unless we are talking geological time (joke).

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Just bolded this bit Uncle F.
When the thread has a title that includes "Imminent correction", quite understandable if people read it as that is what the bears on the thread are expecting and trading for. So good you cleared this up.

I, for one, read this thread as a good exposition of the bear case. And, generally, the case is well put, logical, and cogent. Just the 'imminent' bit is where the problem lies .... unless we are talking geological time (joke).

Yes, the 'imminent' bit is prob past it's use by date, or at least refers to 'imminent correction Part 1'? S'pose it could now refer to Part 2 being imminent??

There could always be a wager on the future - global equity markets will be lower than they are now, this time next year?