Imminent and severe market correction

[skyQuake]

After dramatic falls in mining stocks in Europe and America on Friday, expect falls of up to 15% on Monday on the ASX, including major stocks.

15%? That's a bit extreme for the majors... The dow is just down 2.5%
BHP would tank 2.75~3% at open~
We faded pretty heavily on Fri, so I doubt even the small end of the market will tank that hard, let alone the majors.

 

[Beej]

But, wouldn't you have been better to sell and then re-enter at a much lower point? Nobody knew how low it was going to go, but for experienced traders (not saying i was one back then), the signs must have been there.

Imagine how in the black you'd be now Anyway, well done for not wigging out if you had faith in your shares.

Hah! So much easier said in hind sight than done at the time! Just read this and other threads (especially the "rally or dead cat bounce" thread started in March). Nothing is ever certain and anything can happen until it has already happened. Many of those who were "scared" enough of the signs to sell out on the way down (usually booking significant losses already) have mostly remained too scared to buy back in during the subsequent rally - and in the meantime have also missed out on some serious dividend flows (talking about portfolio holders rather than active pure traders here).

A few people in hindsight made both the exit and entry calls reasonably well and acted on them, they have done very well, but I suspect they represent a small minority of investors. Wish I was one of them but I'm not, but I am in the "held through the doom and gloom" camp, and have benefited immensely from portfolio pruning and dividend re-investment during this period. Slow and steady wins the race when you have a day job and a well selected/managed long term portfolio IMO.

Will be very interesting to see what happens over the next 6-12 months!

Cheers,

Beej

 

[explod]

CIT failure to leave small businesses floundering
Sun Nov 1, 2009 4:36pm EST
By Elinor Comlay

NEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) – CIT Group Inc’s (CIT.N) bankruptcy filing, while long expected, could still trigger a financing crunch for many of the hundreds of thousands of small businesses it finances.

CIT filed for bankruptcy protection on Sunday, and said its creditors have already approved the century-old commercial lender’s reorganization plan.[ID:nN01408863]

The bankruptcy followed a failed struggle to refinance its debt amid the credit crunch and recession, and paves the way for it to restructure.

Under the plan announced on Sunday, the lender expects to reduce total debt by about $10 billion.

But the company’s long-term prospects are uncertain and the bankruptcy could leave more than one million small and medium-sized businesses looking for another source of funding, lawyers said.

More…

From Jim Sinclair's Minset.

And US taxpayers bailed this mob out awhile back to the tune of 2.6 billion, aaahh well its only somebody elses money.

They have been in the business for 100 years.

 

[Donga]

Good to see the bears and cultists are all hibernating in their cave

 

[Joules MM1]

Good to see the bears and cultists are all hibernating in their cave

really............surpriiiiiiiiiiiiise


:fan

 

[Porper]

Good to see the bears and cultists are all hibernating in their cave

The press is bullish, the world is back on track and smart comments about bears are being banded around....perfect time for some reality to kick in.

Remember in March many were predicting Armageddon and look what has happened since.

 

[explod]

Good to see the bears and cultists are all hibernating in their cave

Or just maybe the calm before the storm. Looks like Dubai having to refinance, cant meet their repayments. Business Age paints a picture of world market jitters on the issue.

 

[CamKawa]

I'm standing at the entrance of my cave.

An article on how the Dubai fiasco could hit us.

 

[Aussiejeff]

I'm standing at the entrance of my cave.

An article on how the Dubai fiasco could hit us.

Oh dear.

Too many speculative eggs in an Arabian basket eh?

If you had speculated 20 years ago that the future prosperity of The World would in no small part depend on an Arabian fantasy, would you hgave laughed till you choked?

Who's laughing now?



Better hope the trillions of Chinese Fortune Cookies the west are now holding don't turn rotten in time too...

 

[Mc Gusto]

Oh dear.

Too many speculative eggs in an Arabian basket eh?

If you had speculated 20 years ago that the future prosperity of The World would in no small part depend on an Arabian fantasy, would you hgave laughed till you choked?

Who's laughing now?



Better hope the trillions of Chinese Fortune Cookies the west are now holding don't turn rotten in time too...

comment of the year!!

 

[lukeaye]

Look, somebody is going to have to do this.

Im going to call it, this is it, Expect a very large IMPULSIVE, not corrective move, down from here.

Both fundamental and technical aspects align at the moment.

There is some very very concerning momentum and breadth issues, as well as some very nasty fundamentals comming out.

If you notice the last week, the SPI has not managed to move up at all, and the last few weeks very few stocks have actually strengthed, only the stocks large enough to move the index slightly have moved, the likes of BHP etc.

If you track the majority of other stocks, you will notice they have actually tracked backwards. There is a lot of money comming out of the markets. It starts with the more speculatives, and then the bluechips will follow.

I for one will start taking some shorts from any strength.

 

[sammy84]

There was a fault in london overnight, no trades on the FTSE for three hours. During that time the sell side loaded up. That combined with a knee jerk reaction to a piece of news that markets shoud've already absorbed (Dubai unable too meet debt repayments, who would've thought) could make this a bear trap. Follow through selling on Monday would have me worried however....

 

[Bushman]

There was a fault in london overnight, no trades on the FTSE for three hours. During that time the sell side loaded up. That combined with a knee jerk reaction to a piece of news that markets shoud've already absorbed (Dubai unable too meet debt repayments, who would've thought) could make this a bear trap. Follow through selling on Monday would have me worried however....

Agree - bear trap. Dubai has been a basket case for 12 months and the exposure should be priced in.

However notice again the great predictive powers of Moodies/S&P in declaring a ratings downgrade after the horse has bolted. Lol.

 

[Broadway]

Spi is being bought today for a swing up. Might take a few days, but this is only a dip-buying opportunity, in my opinion. After that I dont know, but short term im in.

(ps been wrong before)

 

[lukeaye]

Spi is being bought today for a swing up. Might take a few days, but this is only a dip-buying opportunity, in my opinion. After that I dont know, but short term im in.

(ps been wrong before)

Im sorry i disagree completely. Buying today imo would be madness, even if the market pulls back up, it will pull back from much lower prices. I would look to buy after a lot more of a pullback.

But i could be wrong.

 

[adobee]

Is there a difference between Dubai's money and the UAE Royal Families money or is all one ? At last reports the Royal Family was worth around $150 Billion ... You would think they can bail out there cousins interest payments if need be for a while ?

 

[skyQuake]

Im sorry i disagree completely. Buying today imo would be madness, even if the market pulls back up, it will pull back from much lower prices. I would look to buy after a lot more of a pullback.

But i could be wrong.

Today could be the false brk to the downside. Bearish sentiment has been building up in Aus pretty heavily, and all the retail punters would short this break.
US futs are down atm (obviously) but the US has a fine history of squeezing the other way if futs are way high or way low.
Pretty sure the dubai mess would be cleaned up fairly easily.

Disc: got me some longs

 

[CAB SAV]

Will Bernwanke pull another rabbit/hair out of his .... this weekend or early next week declaring retail sales/forget profits, well up on thanksgiving weekend last year & the party continues?

 

[swm79]

Today could be the false brk to the downside. Bearish sentiment has been building up in Aus pretty heavily, and all the retail punters would short this break.
US futs are down atm (obviously) but the US has a fine history of squeezing the other way if futs are way high or way low.
Pretty sure the dubai mess would be cleaned up fairly easily.

Disc: got me some longs

and heading into xmas.... sure people wouldnt NOT buy their kids that bike they wanted

time to crack out the credit card

VISA: "EEEEEEEEEEEXCELLENT"

 

[swm79]

Will Bernwanke pull another rabbit/hair out of his .... this weekend or early next week declaring retail sales/forget profits, well up on thanksgiving weekend last year & the party continues?

throw in a "strong dollar... strong dollar" and he'll get the hat-trick!!!