IFL - Insignia Financial

[skc]

Thanks. Really good points.

The key person risk re Kerr Neilson is also interesting. I see him as the heart and soul of the company, and they're also inseparable. In effect, they probably haven't needed to do much advertising because his reputation in the investment community precedes itself. It's hard to know how big his influence still is and what happens when he's no longer there.

As a really crude value determinant a P/E of 15 and dividend somewhere above 6% (currently) probably isn't going to blow the lights out going forward IMO. Might still beat the market. But I'd still like heaps more blood on the streets (aka GFC or 2010/2011 kind of thing).

Re: PTM

Quite a few articles of late by this mob regarding their prospects. Of particular note is what McLovin said about performance vs flow. Apparently the Morningstar "star" rating for funds is very important for inflows... and PTM funds are about to lose their high start rating as the rating is based on weighted 5yr return against benchmark. So recent under performance by PTM funds will really start to bite even more.

Sorry can't find the article which talked about this... hopefully you can find it with a quick google.

http://www.morphicasset.com/exclusive-content/platinum-asset-management-the-end

 

[Ves]

Re: PTM

Quite a few articles of late by this mob regarding their prospects. Of particular note is what McLovin said about performance vs flow. Apparently the Morningstar "star" rating for funds is very important for inflows... and PTM funds are about to lose their high start rating as the rating is based on weighted 5yr return against benchmark. So recent under performance by PTM funds will really start to bite even more.

Sorry can't find the article which talked about this... hopefully you can find it with a quick google.

http://www.morphicasset.com/exclusive-content/platinum-asset-management-the-end

Thanks mate, that's an interesting blog post. It's good for our benefit that they've publically discussed the reasoning for their short (well, there's probably more to it than that).

All said, I really admire how Kerr Neilson has run the ship over there. Lets his investing do the talking and leaves the sales bull**** to everyone else. Unfortunately some of the Funds have hit a bit of a rough patch by the looks of it.

 

[McLovin]

Re: PTM

Quite a few articles of late by this mob regarding their prospects. Of particular note is what McLovin said about performance vs flow. Apparently the Morningstar "star" rating for funds is very important for inflows... and PTM funds are about to lose their high start rating as the rating is based on weighted 5yr return against benchmark. So recent under performance by PTM funds will really start to bite even more.

Sorry can't find the article which talked about this... hopefully you can find it with a quick google.

http://www.morphicasset.com/exclusive-content/platinum-asset-management-the-end

Far be it for me to second guess Kerr Nielsen, but the buyback sort of leaves me scratching my head. Aside from playing a game of chicken with a bunch of shorters what purpose does it serve? It's not like PTM needs capital and so wants to prop up its SP for a raise. It doesn't seem like the best sort of thing to be preoccupying management with and Kerr Nielsen doesn't seem like a guy who is that interested in a p!ssing contest.

Interesting about the Morninstar rating and the effect it has on fund flow.

 

[ukulele]

Interesting day. Market broadly moves down, IFL has a wide up day with strong volume. Perhaps a move back into "bond like" stocks, or am I missing something?

 

[Muschu]

I'm no technical analyst but bought into this one on an uptrend not so long ago at $9. It continued to do well but seems to have peaked for the moment.
I'm considering adding but wondering whether there is a retracement in the wind and where a buying point may be.
Any TA suggestions on where the chart is heading please?

 

[tech/a]

IFL

Technically its still strong

This currently looks like a pull back.
Just draw in a trend line and keep a
look at that.

Be wary if you see a very high volume down day with range.

 

[Muschu]

IFL

Technically its still strong

This currently looks like a pull back.
Just draw in a trend line and keep a
look at that.

Be wary if you see a very high volume down day with range.

Don't really know how to draw in a trend line Tech/A but noticed a tiny gap in chart around $9.46... Of any significance?

 

[tech/a]

I'm no technical analyst but bought into this one on an uptrend not so long ago at $9. It continued to do well but seems to have peaked for the moment.
I'm considering adding but wondering whether there is a retracement in the wind and where a buying point may be.
Any TA suggestions on where the chart is heading please?

Don't really know how to draw in a trend line Tech/A but noticed a tiny gap in chart around $9.46... Of any significance?

Not really (The gap)

See chart

See chart

 

[Muschu]

Thanks for that..... And I get the point about volume.... That aside, maybe around $9.60 ...

 

[sptrawler]

I've had these since they took over Australian Wealth Management, a long time ago. Apart from the scandal they got into a couple of years ago, they've been generally a good investment.

 

[So_Cynical]

One of the few fund managers not getting sold off.

 

[greggles]

Release of the FY 2017 Financial Results has seen IFY jump six percent today.

Result overview

• UNPAT of $169.4 million (2H16/17: $90.0 million, up 13% vs 1H16/17)
• Final proposed fully franked dividend per share of 27 cents per share - up 4% vs 1H16/17
• $4.6 billion net inflows up 156%
• $976m from 33 new advisers joining to 30 June
• Statutory profit 1 of $116.0 million
• Disciplined cost control - reduced operating expenditure by $12.6m - down 8% vs 1H16/17
• Platform net operating margin increased 4bps, gross margin increased 2bps vs 1H16/17
• Acquisition of National Australia Trustees Limited adds scale & national, specialist Trustee capabilities

 

[skc]

Release of the FY 2017 Financial Results has seen IFY jump six percent today.

Good growth in advisors and FUM and solid costs management... and holding it's gains despite a weak negative market. The chart's been strong leading into the result and pushing 5 year highs ($11).

 

[peter2]

IFL has been caught up in the selling in the financial sector, but there are bullish signs.
Today's minor BO of a small consolidation looks promising. IFL will need the market and other financials to rally. Target is the old highs at 11.50.

 

[peter2]

Supply swamped the IFL market yesterday and sent prices down. An ugly day for a short term trader and there's no reason for me to hold it any longer.

 

[sptrawler]

That's a big change of heart, in a short period of time Peter.

 

[peter2]

Yep, a short term trader has to adapt quickly. That huge down day was ugly, especially without any news. Now if I was a medium term holder I'd put my iSL below the last low (8.60) and I'd not be too concerned about the spike down. I wouldn't like it that I'd be losing a little but there's nothing to do yet.

I wouldn't be the only retail trader to have a sell order below the low at 9.00. This is a good level to probe if I was an insto buyer. I'd sell a little to spook the retail traders (like P2) and buy all they're selling. I know this happens, so it's worth keeping an eye on the price moves today and tomorrow. If it's a "stop hunt", price should rebound quickly.

As I write this, price is now back above today's open. This sort of rebound can be anticipated by a intra-day trader.


What I'm trying to point out is that there are opportunities for all types of traders if you've got a plan appropriate to your trading style.
A medium term trader with a conservative iSL is not concerned. They're OK.
A short term trader with a tighter iSL sells quickly and looks for another opportunity. They're OK.
An intraday trader looks for high volume and waits for their setups at interesting levels. They're OK.

 

[peter2]

Traders have problems when they mix trading styles.
eg. A medium term trader wants to hold IFL because the opportunity looks great and uses a tighter iSL so that they can buy more shares than if they select a more conservative iSL. One big down day and they're in trouble, but they don't sell quickly because they think the price won't fall any further. We know what happens next.
eg. A short term trader uses a larger iSL and buys fewer shares than they should. They're risking less but they'll make less when they get it right.
eg. A short term trader sells after the big down day and then immediately looks for an intra-day setup to re-enter. Does this trader have an edge using another trading style? Probably not.

It's a fascinating business isn't it.

 

[HelloU]

........ especially without any news. Now if I was a medium term holder I'd put my iSL below the last low (8.60) and I'd not be too concerned about the spike down.......

hey, are u talking a trailing stop here cos in profit from much earlier trade or are u talking just a looser initial stop from the recent buy in here in posts above? I am having difficulty with ur intended context of this bit and can read it both ways...which is ok with me for both....just unsure which one u meant.

 

[HelloU]

maybe u answered that whilst I was typing...I will read what u wrote