How do we deal with bushfires in a warming climate?

[moXJO]

I quick story after fires had burnt through my property back in November.

As the sunset, the fire fighters had packed up their gear and gone to fight other fires. I was left just gazing at the black and still smoldering earth when a riot of kookaburras flew in and peached on a tree above me and started their well known rapturous laughter. All I could think of was the little buggers were taking the piss out of me. " You superior human beings think you are the apex species on the planet. If you were so clever, you would have wings". They proceeded to fly off into the sunset, leaving me feeling a bit inferior.

I wonder if you can bulldoze through any Burnt Gumtree stumps without anyone noticing?
100m buffer zone and a "hey that's how it grew back".

 

[IFocus]

I wonder if you can bulldoze through any Burnt Gumtree stumps without anyone noticing?
100m buffer zone and a "hey that's how it grew back".

In the last Victorian fires radiant heat was deadly at 200 meters a firey captain who went through that said these fires were double the intensity so better make that 400 meters.

 

[macca]

People talk about budget cutbacks effecting the winter burn offs, before the megalomania started within the RFS head office the local Captain would simply round up a few volunteers in winter and burn it off.

Total cost was the diesel fuel in the fire truck and a slab for after

 

[moXJO]

People talk about budget cutbacks effecting the winter burn offs, before the megalomania started within the RFS head office the local Captain would simply round up a few volunteers in winter and burn it off.

Total cost was the diesel fuel in the fire truck and a slab for after

A lot of green tape around it now.

 

[kahuna1]

Because I am factually correct.

If what you are doing is science, no wonder Australia is stuffed

Average rainfall ... Ignored.
Rainfall deficiency and at 50% ... ignored.
Humidity at 25% below normal ... ignored ...
Lowest 3 year rain total for vast parts of NSW and Victoria ... ignored ...
Temperature averages all time highs ... ignored ...
The 150 year lows rainfall total ... ignored
Maximum high temperature broken ... ignored
Maximum high temp with ultra low humidity and record low 12 month and 36 month rainfall .. Ignored.


Smurf in your case you ignored ALL and ANY data as provided ... whether it was average ... or 150 year lows ... all are quite different in any normal persons universe. I have underlined them ... each are quite different but tell similar stories ...

So what was quoted .. and supported ... Nothing from MoXjo and another ...

Talked about flooding 2,581 km away in far north Qld ... from Victorian fires in Orbost .... accepted as relevant to something ...

When questioned ... a flash flood 450 km away from current burning regions on the 0ther side of the great dividing range was used to claim there was some window for managed burn-offs. A mere 100 mm of rain in a day, yep produces a local flash flood but ... well ... it was 450 km away.

Fire in July which took 90 days to put out ... and 44 days just to be be under control ... Ignored.

Yes ,,,, in my reality ... humidity .... rainfall when its non existent ... ultra high temperatures and fires burning out of control 150 km away from current ones in Victoria are actually relevant.

In some peoples world ... its their own reality.

I do prefer using source data ... and I did so, with links provided.
I got none back. Opinions ... dogma and well ... a planet which is not this one where religious beliefs suddenly have floods in regions where rain was 50% of normal on 1 year 2 year and three year measures. In fact actually 150 year low totals for 3 year periods.

I must read up on what fire fighters use to fight fires. I thought it was water.

Obviously not.

 

[kahuna1]

Spot quiz ...

What areas of Victoria are burning ? Are they RED ... all time 3 year rainfall lows or white ?

Bonus question ...


Well , Since I seem alone in this ... its pointless for now, a bonus question. Others may read this and find this amusing in the future.

 

[IFocus]

A lot of green tape around it now.

Sigh, yep those dam Greenies keep making all the rules?

 

[moXJO]

Sigh, yep those dam Greenies keep making all the rules?

Local council mostly

 

[moXJO]

Spot quiz ...

What areas of Victoria are burning ? Are they RED ... all time 3 year rainfall lows or white ?

Bonus question ...


Well , Since I seem alone in this ... its pointless for now, a bonus question. Others may read this and find this amusing in the future.

Yes it's dry.
You get a cookie for trying...

 

[kahuna1]

I note ...
as of 10.53 pm ... the Vic fire has leapfrogged into NSW by what looks like 30 km of the 50 to Eden.

Not a debate ... an observation from a local .. State forests Yambulla and so on ... tinder dry ... National Parks ... along the coast the same. Fuel load ... for whatever reason you wish to choose massive,

Not sure as a resident for many years, family in the region since 1835 ... but I am still not a local ... I do wonder the region close to Eden the state forest last burn-off and that was a close run disaster in 2016 ... adjoins state forest and national park and nature reserves ;.. all the way to Tathtra which burnt to the ground or close to it in March 2018 ...

My concern, is what tomorrow will bring ? Will the leapfrog of 30 km in 2 hrs be repeated as it was in say Cobargo another area that well burnt to the ground and Yowrie people got NO warning not emergency warning only to flee to Cobargo and it in flames 3 hours latter and fled to Bermagui ... on the cost and that now evacuated. Where will tomorrow morning be ? Will the Merimbula area and surrounds with ultra steep not back-burnt for 5 years be on fire ?

I have no idea. So too even RFS ... and whilst amusing being told I am quoting off some google search ... or whatever ... its pretty irrelevant your opinion.

As they say everyone has an opinions ... they are like assholes and we all think others opinions stink.

I sadly speak with a little experience in the region and many many days and nights in various parks and reserves and camping I suppose more than most the past 20 years.

Debating someone who visited once, or saw a fire once ... is somewhat besides the point. I note ex PM called it climate hysteria which has been repeated here a few times. SCOMO called them city based Climate Imbeciles and a few other choice words and NOW ... he is calling in the Army reserve ...

I hope for the best, had a few very close calls last few days on o loved ones. One missed it by 10 minutes and it was only sheer luck they evacuated as it was on the 31st Dec . HOUSE LOST .... all possessions lost and so it goes. I suppose I have 10 pretty good friends with similar stories but only one is a total loss of house, the others have had business's destroyed and lost 70% of yearly income as town evacuated in peak holiday season.

Whilst a distraction your comments and views, however quaint ... absurd and city based non science backed, I do wonder what tomorrow and next few weeks brings for my town of the last 10 years ... just moved to the farms .... Merimbula .. prior to that 15 years in Tathra which well it burnt out in March 2018. Only 69 houses lost there. My friend who fled Yowrie ... lost her home. She was in her 80's in a wheel chair to boot. Friend in Quama actually stayed and defended and well .. I must tell her and her hubbie off ... it was close. Friends in Batemans bay ... close ... Mogo well lost business literally that time.

I hope ... Bermagui ... Eden and Merimbula, Pambula and Tura are spared.

Despite valliant efforts by RFS and idiotic insulting crap on this thread, even they have not much hope of stopping it if conditions do not improve vastly. It could be like the Cobargo stuff ... and Batemans Bay region a 50 km chomp all at once.

As a country lad, with ties to a few regions now, people with opinions as to who does what often are absurd. Knowing how a burnoff is announced and done is something one learns over many years. Whilst some of the fires that just broke the containment lines are NSW Forrest regions ... the other prong is nation Parks so RFS in this situation with the assets takes the lead, the region from Vic Border to just south of Eden is a total PIG for trying to stop anything. Some spots have great camping spots over very steep ravines down to rivers and lakes, but trying to defend .... let alone a controlled burn in dry conditions is really not possible. Not even the bravest would suggest a controlled burn in anything other than very wet conditions.

Strange to be ... well ... questioned ... told I am full of BS when I likely could describe and identify most of the coastal and inland bush for 300 km up to say Arualeun and Braidwood near Moruya and Mogo.

Better run ... the worst case fire prediction map ... just got broken by about 10 km closer to Eden and I have calls to make

 

[kahuna1]

I did look closely at the prediction maps ...

It just jumped 5 km beyond predicted map on the RFS live site ....
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me

I now note the altered advice and evacuation of Eden where the police just knocked on a friends door. Off to Merimbula which is about 30 km or so north ...

RFS site .... v Police ... as a local fire coming from the South ... pretty much a no brainer to head north with three kids and pets.

Very happy this friend got advice, then again Eden is not Yowrie or even Cobargo, its 50 times the size of the first and Yowrie other than local shop and a few other things tiny ... Cobargo used to have a few shops along the Princess Highway ... about half gone.

Hmmm sleep will not come I suspect for a while. Fingers crossed.

Fire seems a mere 2-3 km from Boydtown which is ... well a decent caravan park there now ... likely deserted ... old Inn they did up and a subdivision which has been a pink elephant for 20 years but still has I suppose 50 houses spread over a vast area ....

I did get some twit on the Vic fire thread alluding that I was not local. Strange to be able to describe things. Boydtown inn ... dining room one end ... function rooms the other ... with a nice bar between fronts onto the Eden Harbor which is lovelely and well protected.

The beach ... a must ... in moonlight ... full moon go swimming and cup some sand and water ... its full of sparkles .... some shiny pyrite I think in the sand and its magical.

View from the front looks out over 2 Km of water to Eden itself ...

Advice

• If you are in the area of Womboyn, Kiah, Narrabarba, Towamba, Burragate, Eden and surrounds, you are at risk.
• It is too late to leave.
• Seek shelter as the fire approaches. Protect yourself from the heat of the fire.
  

 

[sptrawler]

So Kahuna 1, on the basis that this is caused by global warming and we will have no effect at mitigating global warming.
I guess you will be moving to a safer area?

 

[Smurf1976]

Sigh, yep those dam Greenies keep making all the rules?

I wouldn't blame it all on them by any means. Not even close.

We seem to have a much broader issue in Australia with avoiding even the slightest risk in the short term, with anything, even if it means real trouble later.

There's an entire field known as the "compliance industry" which revolves around ticking all the boxes, filling out all the forms and so on across all sorts of work these days.

In the electrical trade apparently there's literally an actual business doing it now. All they do is fill out forms on behalf of electricians or so I've been told. Not surprising given that even simply getting some metering work done can involve hours of phone calls, countless emails and so on these days as every I is dotted in triplicate, every T is crossed a dozen times and then you find that the person on the other end doesn't understand the question anyway so it's start again from scratch.

To the extent there's obstruction, that's where it comes from. Not so much with hard rules preventing things but with so much paperwork, red tape and so on that it all ends up being far too hard to get it done and people simply give up. Life's too short to spend months arguing in order to save $50 or avoid a fire hazard that most likely won't happen anyway.

It's at the point now in some industries where people break the rules not because they want to but because doing the right thing is simply so difficult. What used to be one 5 minute phone call can now end up with months worth of emails back and forth and a point comes where most simply give up.

That's how "greenies" stop things in practice and it's not necessarily actual environmentalists or members of the Greens party but simply anyone engaging in over the top bureaucracy. Politically all sides do it but if the issue is relating to the environment etc well then I suppose the Greens are going to get the blame there more due to association than anything real.

 

[kahuna1]

That's how "greenies" stop things in practice

As 150,000 more hectares ignited its ... the Greenies yet again.
All other data is ignored. Record heat ... record low rainfall ...

As one region that will burn for months just caught alight, much to my horror in NSW the steep diabolical regions which require very wet conditions to ever even contemplate a controlled burn, that too is ignored for the dialogue.

Eden and its surrounds ... right up to the edge of town ... from the Victorian border incinerated.
Fires due to terrain ... steep inaccessible regions say around Yambulla will burn until a torrential downpour occurs ... or they as sadly is clear will be a tinder box for embers to eventually ignite similar regions just as dry surrounding Merimbula/ Tura and well all the way up the great dividing range.

Predicting the extent even for the experts and RFS ... and Vic ones .... is not possible.
Denying climate change or even debating hotter dryer conditions seems the idiot dogma of most.
Even disputing of denying actual rain ... heat .. humidity ... are to be ignored

Blaming Greenies or some pet theory of setting a steep escarpment alight to hazard reduce is so absurd and insulting and idiotic it defies rational comment other than clearly displayed dementia and senile decline on display. Are you serious about setting say a steep region lush with vegetation ... but dead dry .. insanely dry ..due to climate issues ? I asked ... presented data ... and all was ignored.

Your kidding. Seriously.

Each has their views and I note ... with amusement some of the jibes and views. One who resides supposedly on the South Coast when the IP address was checked I thought Golbourn and the Jail was on the Slopes not the south coast let alone the Far south coast.

That a region ... from the Victorian border to Eden just ignited and unexpectedly ignited the extent is Triple the predicted region by RFS ... TRIPLE ... TRIPLE their worst case .... the area is 30 km wide and 50 km deep. At TRIPLE least even the worst estimate on ember spread. This is not about blame ... not at all ... just scope ... SCOPE ...

I am sure the media will work it out soon that overnight .

I am sure some will choose to call this hysterical or whatever as they require changing of their adult nappies.

It seems sadly unlikely to hold much hope despite brave and valiant efforts by the amazing firies and emergency workers to not realistically expect what is left, will not also be under threat in coming days weeks and months.

To ignore 150 year low rainfall-totals ... seems petty if not idiotic at this stage.
To lay blame on some pet theory about what the aboriginals did seems equally absurd given the lack of any and all historical records. So too mythical greenies and its their fault ...

We .. as a nation ... likely have a burnt total that is going to be 5 times ANY previously seen.
Ignoring climate issues, rain ... humidity ... stomping your foot .. calling me a greenie or inventing floods ...


Pathetic.
That we have seen minimal loss of human life is fantastic and to be applauded.
Wildlife and property losses another matter.

I am sure someone will soon catch onto the scope of the overnight fires size and reflect. To be told as I was by someone as I relayed my horror and fears for loved ones and loved region ... that some mythical ... burn-back occurred or being told I was full of shi% ... a record in print of stupid people on display.

Seriously ... thanks for the distraction as I watched from a distance ... made a few calls ... but the scope whilst mainly uninhabited the 150.000 hectares and sparsely dotted with not much in the way of buildings other than Wombyn and sparsely settled mainly around the Princess highway, its size and scope is ... what it is.

Keep denying and minimizing climate issues and all of them.
Please keep up your idiotic pet theories about control burning a mountain with steep sides, or wild coastal ravines full of vegetation also being candidates for control burns in record low 150 low rainfall periods.

Dispute ... deny ... and please go change your adult nappies . Pragmatic reality which does not fit your pet theory ... data which upsets your view ... wow your nappy must be very full.

 

[kahuna1]

Honestly you are an idiot.

Thanks ... How is Golburn jail ?

Poole Rd
Updated: 5 Jan 2020 10:01
30462 ha
Border Fire
214221 ha

So 245.000 hectares just these TWO overnight add the spread of others and 100% of last year TOTAL well above 300,00 hectares .

Yes I am an idiot as you told me as I worried about this.
Enjoy your chocolate for favors.


Seems I underestimated by a factor of 100% ... being conservative to cries of being called hysterical.
Just correction my understating the overnight totals as the official numbers are presented whilst I am yet again being called an idiot.

 

[kahuna1]

Someone asked smugly how it jumped 20 km ...

Others asked why I took exception to pushing burnoffs ... and why .. well dry conditions and so on made it idiotic along with geography and steep mountains that only the insane would Hazard reduce burn..

One picture ....
One picture only ....

Where are the flames ?

Oh its 3.12 am South of Eden 5/1/2020

 

[basilio]

There is an excellent detailed explainer on the effectiveness of hazard reduction burning in The Guardian.
Well worth reading in full.

Explainer: how effective is bushfire hazard reduction on Australia's fires?
Claims of a Greens conspiracy to block hazard reduction has been rejected by bushfire experts

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...bushfire-hazard-reduction-on-australias-fires

 

[wayneL]

...an excellent detailed explainer...

= fits bas' extreme left narrative

 

[kahuna1]

Perhaps consider how a crowning fire forms and spreads.

This from the person who suggested controlled burns during non existent floods ?
Or hazard reduction burns during the same flash flooding ?

Two types of fires.
All have basically similar basic properties but ... totally dissimilar.
Climate conditions .... Fuel load .... topography

Normal fire ... all three relevant.

Not so normal,
Extreme or catastrophic conditions. Ones I did raise, but well ... ignored here.

Fuel load at ground level and fire breaks ... pretty irrelevant. Look at the picture and CSRIO study along with RFS and others.
Leaps from tree top to tree top. Both Vic fire chief and NSW one have time and time again discussed this.

Extreme and catastrophic conditions are .. extreme heat ... low humidity and wind even worse.

So being pop pooed for pointing out 36 month total rainfall lows ... 150 year lows.
then all time 150 year temperature highs ..
then 150 year low humidity ...

all discarded .. for some gibberish about averages and if only there had been controlled burns or Greenies.

Silly thing is ... in a fire storm ... in extreme or catastrophic conditions ultra low humidity, ultra dry .. and high heat with WIND ... it really is totally irrelevant fuel loads on the ground.

Fires leap 5 km 10km ... tree top to tree top .... which is yep dry ... hence the Tathra incident of 2018 where I lived. How Eden fire actually did 40 km in a very short time and now 60 km.

Not a debate ... past that. Fire breaks in those conditions ... sadly an aside.

This is the brave new world where denial of anything unusual going on as climactic observations hit 150 lows, ones predicted and predicted to get worse are still denied.

I cannot change what is actual conditions. Not about to debate someone such as some even denying this irrefutable evidence of 150 year high temps and low humidity and low rainfall.

In their universe floods appear to be relevant even when 2,581 km away of a flash flood 450 kms away from current fires was a missed opportunity to do a hazard reduction burn.

Fires do actually burn better in hot dry conditions and to have it suggested that a controlled burn was an option after a flash flood is someone who has never ... tried to light a campfire in the rain.

There is to be blunt ... NO solution to extreme of catastrophic climate changes. NONE. None in relation to fighting fires.

If you wish as many do that climate issues are not real, of this was a one off event, so be it. Funny the same event where Tundra covering permafrost and frozen bones for 35,000 years on the top layers and 1 million year old vegetation have caught alight and raged the last 2 years across the Arctic and Canadian and Siberian regions of it.

IPCC models actually do not contain any change for the Permafrost melting because the USA and Canada with Saudi Arabia had it removed along with the help of our Government. A release of frozen and captured CO2 that contains more CO2 than we humans have emitted ... in 200 years .. was not expected after fudging by USA lobby in the IPCC to happen till post 2100.

Its sadly occurring 80 years early.

We already hit the 1.5 degree target rise ... for 2100 globally in 2018 ... let alone 2019. Response was with the USA coal Barrons wife at the UN is that this pre industrial starting point moved from 1750 to 1810 so we were and are only 1.1 C higher. The amount sadly of CO2 and CH4 methane to be released which is 40 times if not 80 times worse as the atmosphere cannot deal with the breaking down of it and the time just to break CH4 into CO2 and H2O has doubled in 15 years.

An at best estimate on the actual 2100 realistic target is even of Kyoto were to be met a rise of 2.5 degrees ignoring Artic CO2 melt and CH4 issues that USA presidents, and out own, and not just Trump ... Obama was shocking Bush Junior was funded by Enron. The best estimate from the very best IPCC guys from Cambridge and Oxford in the UK along with several others is a rise of not 1 C or 2C which the latter is diabolical which defies description, the recent Madrid conference had the panel with the most respected brains ranging from 4-6 C gains by 2100.

I know alarmist or whatever.

Howling at the moon but one does try ... even for what little worth and abuse it receives.
Australia I would agree if it went to zero emissions would not matter a lot. The cost would strangely be ZERO or close to it, it would of course mean losses for coal and others but ... who cares.

Burn baby burn as they say.
Trying to stop a petrol fire with the garden hose does not work.
Trying to stop this type of fire ... with Climactic and water content and heat and wind at extremes ..

Good luck.

It is possible with a metal piped sprinkler system when the front approaches to cover your house and anything flammable in a fine water mist and emerge when the front passes to put out any spot stuff.

Standing on the roof with your hose in the face of a firestorm ?

Good luck ... again.

Climate denial and non acceptance of even current relevant temperature and humidity levels is absurd.
Suggesting even that its possible to control burn in extreme or severe conditions as seem even in winter is doubly absurd.

Then again in these types of fires, or firestorms, the fuel load at ground level ... GROUND level is not relevant.

I thank you for your input ... but in the study ... it conceded Fuel load is totally irrelevant in extreme and catastrophic conditions.

FFDI; when you exceed an FFDI of about 50, you switch from fuel-dominated to a weather-dominated fire."At this point, while fuel has a small effect, it is overwhelmed by the weather.

What was the fire rating ? Up in the 90 region .... FFDI ./.

Sorry Tathra fire inquiry via CSRIO in 2018 ... not 2003.

 

[basilio]

= fits bas' extreme left narrative

You are such a total waste of space Wayne.
In which xxxing universe do you actually read an analysis and respond to the content ?
Certainly not this one.