How do we deal with bushfires in a warming climate?

[sptrawler]

I would agree on one point, we should have a federal fire army, a green corp with proper hardware
Fire bombing equipment, trucks dozers and maybe these guys could be used during winter months to build fire breaks around NP and handle burn off
NP by design are unpopulated areas the few local RFBs and rangers are so underwhelmed it is not funny yet they have more work to do there than in more agricultural areas.it can not work.it does not

It certainly wouldn't hurt for the Federal Government, to ok the RAAF to either purchase an aerial firebomber plane, or convert an ageing Hercules for the purpose. Then it could be deployed to any part of Australia as and when it was required.

 

[Smurf1976]

The trouble with all this is that it's about politics not facts.

For all those saying it's due to climate change and we should have acted and so on, that may well be true but hindsight is a wonderful thing. Just four and a half years ago even the Greens, the party one would rationally expect to be most aware of climate change, didn't think there was any need to worry about droughts in the future: https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...-in-state-of-hibernation-20150411-1miuw6.html

Reality is that politicians of all persuasions will say whatever suits them at the time and they're all much the same. When there's plenty of water they'll deny that droughts are even possible. Now there's a drought they'll predict it's going to be permanent.

There is however something very relevant to investing in this - in any situation most humans will extrapolate the recent past into the indefinite future. Since this invariably ends up to not be the case, it presents an opportunity when that approach has resulted in shares in whatever being sold off.

 

[macca]

Is this link in one of our threads, did not see it

<<A climatic phenomenon of near-record intensity has contributed to two extremes on opposite sides of the Indian Ocean , torrential rain in East Africa and exceptionally dry conditions fuelling bushfires in Australia.>>

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news...ustralia-and-deadly-flooding-in-africa/530660

 

[qldfrog]

Yes el nino and nina well known but i i learnt this year of the indian parallel phenomenon, and i think this year we got the two cycles hitting us so the severe drought here..
When you start considering cycles be it economic or weather ,climate, sunspot, it explains a lot

 

[IFocus]

The PIOD has been long discussed in the surfing world this year it causes unfavourable winds and cooler climate off the Indonesian coast.

A couple of points as to my understanding.

While the PIOD isn't new its not understood what the driver is a few theories still to be proven at the moment CC is not one of them.

A number of surfers talking about it are also residents in NSW and Queensland bush fire areas the comments have been while it has contributed to the dry doesn't explain why you have rain forest burning plus fires in NSW burning for weeks long before the media jumped on the fires.

Note the forecast for Perth this week another new record

 

[Smurf1976]

While the PIOD isn't new its not understood what the driver is a few theories still to be proven at the moment CC is not one of them.

The phenomenon isn't new but understanding its impacts is fairly recent and as you say there's even less known about what drives it.

It was certainly a bit of a revelation to the large scale water managers, so urban water, hydro-electricity and irrigation, in that it goes a long way to explaining what was previously unexplained in terms of inflow variability. It doesn't offer a way to fix it but at least it helps understand what's going on and to produce more accurate forecasts which, whilst they can't make it rain, do enable a more appropriate response to prevailing conditions.

 

[basilio]

The historical fire season has barely started. The current fire storms are beyond all historical comparisons. Where do we go from here ?

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...tain-sydney-heatwave-latest-updates-live-news
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...rgency-from-bushfire-smoke-say-medical-groups
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...are-for-long-term-bushfires-and-air-pollution
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...accused-of-cheating-and-thwarting-global-deal

 

[basilio]

NSW RFS fears Blue Mountains bushfire could hit power station, coal mine
There are fears a "mega-fire" at Gospers Mountain could tear through a coal mine and a major power station north west of Sydney this week, as temperatures soar to 46 degrees Celsius.

• NSW is expected to swelter through a heatwave on Thursday and Saturday
• That is bad news for fire crews battling the massive Gospers Mountain blaze
• It is threatening a power station that supplies 10 per cent of the state's electricity

Firefighters spent today putting embers out around the Mount Piper power station near Lithgow before the NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) declared a statewide total fire ban from midnight tonight until midnight on Saturday.

Hot and windy conditions are expected at many locations around the state in that period, with temperatures over 45C forecast.

RFS Deputy Commissioner Rob Rogers said fire reaching the power station, the Springvale Coal Mine or the abandoned Wallerawang coal mines was "the last thing" crews needed.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12...ould-hit-power-station-and-coal-mine/11805432

 

[basilio]

Current bushfire conditions.

Australia experiences hottest day on record and its worst ever spring bushfire danger
Tuesday’s average maximum 0f 40.9C was Australia’s hottest ever and follows the driest and second warmest spring on record

Australia has just experienced its hottest day on record and its worst spring on record for dangerous bushfire weather, according to data released by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Preliminary analysis suggested that Tuesday was the hottest day on record for Australia, with an average maximum across the country of 40.9C. The temperature beat the previous 40.3C set on 7 January 2013, in a record going back to 1910.

Confirming the unprecedented nature of the current devastating fire season, the bureau has also found that 95% of Australia experienced fire danger weather that was well above average.

Above average temperatures, high winds, severe drought and the driest spring on record combined to bring dangerous conditions to many parts of the country.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ord-and-its-worst-ever-spring-bushfire-danger

 

[basilio]

An extraordinary added danger to more intense bushfires.

Scientists fear surge in supersized bushfires that create their own violent thunderstorms
Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCB) storms are feared due to the violent and unpredictable conditions they create on the ground

Scientists fear climate change will drive a surge in the number of supersized and dangerous bushfires that become coupled with the atmosphere and create their own violent thunderstorms.

Guardian Australia can reveal 2019 is likely to be a “standout year” for the number of bushfires that generate giant thunderstorm clouds known as pyrocumulonimbus, or pyroCBs.

PyroCB storms are feared by firefighters for the violent and unpredictable conditions they create on the ground.

PyroCBs are able to generate their own lightning strikes, mass downdrafts of air, gusty winds and even hail blackened with soot. The plumes generated from pyroCBs can influence the atmosphere at heights of up to 15km.

Embers still hot enough to start new fires can be shot out of a pyroCB at distances of 30km from the main fire.
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...s-that-create-their-own-violent-thunderstorms

 

[macca]

I wonder will the F...wits eventually work out that in Oz we inherited a landscape that MUST be burnt off regularly at least every third winter.

We do Not have the option of saying "it is too wet to burn off" "it is too dry to burn off" the wind is blowing too hard, the wind is not blowing enough etc etc

Just BS excuses and the facts are quite simply this, either we burn off Every winter when it suits us or Nature will do it when it suits Nature.

That is the bottom line, as has been clearly demonstrated this year there are no other options

 

[qldfrog]

I wonder will the F...wits eventually work out that in Oz we inherited a landscape that MUST be burnt off regularly at least every third winter.

We do Not have the option of saying "it is too wet to burn off" "it is too dry to burn off" the wind is blowing too hard, the wind is not blowing enough etc etc

Just BS excuses and the facts are quite simply this, either we burn off Every winter when it suits us or Nature will do it when it suits Nature.

That is the bottom line, as has been clearly demonstrated this year there are no other options

I think the minimum rotation is less than 8years from what i have read, so every 8 year minimum, everything must have had a burn off
How can we have this happening with increasing reserved conservation areas, aging and depopulation of country areas,
And this expected to be done by volunteers
We have millions of unemployed, claims about aboriginal conditions..this is an area where you can be productive, with minimal academic records and link to the land
Maybe a great way to bring back dignity, wages(not welfare) to a community in dire state would be to create some fire corps for both prevention and fire fighting.
In a decade or so, we could get back to a decent state

 

[macca]

The other thing that rarely gets a mention is that millions of wild creatures are burnt by these holocausts, in our 2 acres I would estimate we have 12 lizards of various sizes on mainly mowed lawn.

Multiply that by at least 2 in native scrub so 20+ lizards then multiply again by the thousands of acres that have been burnt.

Baby birds in nests, echidnas, wallabies and every single land dwelling creature all sacrificed on the altar of ideology, it is a disgrace.

 

[chiff]

The other thing that rarely gets a mention is that millions of wild creatures are burnt by these holocausts, in our 2 acres I would estimate we have 12 lizards of various sizes on mainly mowed lawn.

Multiply that by at least 2 in native scrub so 20+ lizards then multiply again by the thousands of acres that have been burnt.

Baby birds in nests, echidnas, wallabies and every single land dwelling creature all sacrificed on the altar of ideology, it is a disgrace.

We had a fire near us yesterday...Cudlee Creek fire...wind pushed it away from us so no real concern.They say caused by a tree falling on power lines.This fire is in an area well cleared with land owners responsible for fuel reduction on their properties.This is enforced.There are a few remnant bush areas on top of hills and hard to get at areas.I believe on a catastrophic day like that no amount of hazard reduction will stop a fire like that.How many homes were lost we will find out today.

 

[macca]

Hi Chiff,

No matter what we do there will always be fires under exceptional circumstances but these past months are a direct result of the fire not running out of fuel.

By reducing the rubbish lying on the floor of forests through cold burning in winter we stop the fire from crowning and this severely limits the ability to jump across roads and clearings.

It is the crowning which lifts the flames up so that the wind can grab the debris and fling burning embers some K's in front of the flames.

In the NT and northern WA they have been Eco burning for a few years now, research revealed that without continuing the normal practise of winter burning that the wildlife was dying out.

Fortunately the Gouldian finch is a very pretty bird and when people realised it was on the way to extinction questions were asked and it was "discovered" by the experts that without burning the grasses did not flourish which meant no seeds for the finches to eat

Obviously, the same is happening down south but as it is happening within forests no one sees it. In our area there used to "miles " of flannel flowers every summer now they are a rare treat because they only flower in sunny areas. No burning off means no sunny areas, except along the roadside, they grow along the road still but only in the forests for a few years after they have been torched.

By not winter burning we have changed an environment that has existed for thousands of years, the fauna and flora cannot just drive away and come back in a week so they burn to death instead.

 

[qldfrog]

We had a fire near us yesterday...Cudlee Creek fire...wind pushed it away from us so no real concern.They say caused by a tree falling on power lines.This fire is in an area well cleared with land owners responsible for fuel reduction on their properties.This is enforced.There are a few remnant bush areas on top of hills and hard to get at areas.I believe on a catastrophic day like that no amount of hazard reduction will stop a fire like that.How many homes were lost we will find out today.

But you may not have had a so called megafire burning for a month, nor many of the initial starts
Once you have 90km am hour wind, even a wet moss pit would burn we all agree..well i think we do
Good luck for today.take care

 

[Smurf1976]

Once you have 90km am hour wind, even a wet moss pit would burn we all agree..well i think we do

Low grade coal is 70% water but get the fire hot enough and it burns no worries. Same with most things.

Removing fuel is about reducing the intensity of fire and the chance of one starting in the first place. Less to burn = there's less heat able to be released per square meter of land. That's fundamental and unavoidable. Have less fuel and you've got less energy able to be released.

Less heat = slower burning = better chance of doing something about it.

 

[Smurf1976]

By not winter burning we have changed an environment that has existed for thousands of years, the fauna and flora cannot just drive away and come back in a week so they burn to death instead.

What's needed here is a scientific approach rather than an ideological or political one.

Same goes for a lot of things - see what the science says and act accordingly and to hell with the ideological stuff.

 

[macca]

What's needed here is a scientific approach rather than an ideological or political one.

Same goes for a lot of things - see what the science says and act accordingly and to hell with the ideological stuff.

Very true Smurf, we need to realise that all of the fauna and flora that existed when the white fellas got here had been living with fire for eons, they had adapted and survived.

Up until recent times in most areas of Oz the winter fires continued out of necessity, there were no huge water bombers or such, most bush fire brigades had an old truck which was usually hard to start as it was a hand me down from a somewhere else.

They usually had a smallish water tank on the back and were used to control winter burn offs, no way would you believe that they could actually put out a fire. They could save one house but then they would be empty, the truck near our place did not squirt very far.

By burning off in winter you only have to steer it around any buildings until nightfall, when it cools down overnight you can kill it quite easily. Often they go out by themselves and we would have to relight the next morning to clear a bit more.

Talking to a bloke up at the Undara lava tubes and he was an old bushy, he said that they started to burn off on the first of June and kept relighting it each morning. When they had to put it out themselves they stopped burning as it was now too dangerous.

 

[Knobby22]

Very true Smurf, we need to realise that all of the fauna and flora that existed when the white fellas got here had been living with fire for eons, they had adapted and survived.

Up until recent times in most areas of Oz the winter fires continued out of necessity, there were no huge water bombers or such, most bush fire brigades had an old truck which was usually hard to start as it was a hand me down from a somewhere else.

They usually had a smallish water tank on the back and were used to control winter burn offs, no way would you believe that they could actually put out a fire. They could save one house but then they would be empty, the truck near our place did not squirt very far.

By burning off in winter you only have to steer it around any buildings until nightfall, when it cools down overnight you can kill it quite easily. Often they go out by themselves and we would have to relight the next morning to clear a bit more.

Talking to a bloke up at the Undara lava tubes and he was an old bushy, he said that they started to burn off on the first of June and kept relighting it each morning. When they had to put it out themselves they stopped burning as it was now too dangerous.

Not eons.
I was listening on the radio to two scientists who specialise in Australian Giant Fauna. You know, the Diprotodon, giant wombat, giant Kangaroo etc.

It appears when the aboriginal first arrived they were still around, there was lots of forests near Lake Eyre etc. The continuous burning of the landscape changed the environment, removed the forests and dried the lakes. Also the plant types changed causing mass extinction.