Short and medium term impacts of Australian bushfires

[Jack Aubrey]

Who could have foreseen the intensity of the current bushfire season? Apparently, quite a few people did but no one was listening:

Home affairs warned Australian government of growing climate disaster risk after May election

"The government was warned by the Department of Home Affairs after the May election that Australia faced more frequent and severe heatwaves and bushfires, and that livelihoods would be affected without effective action on climate change.

The department’s incoming government brief to the home affairs minister, Peter Dutton, warned of “disasters” exacerbated by climate change.

“The physical effects of climate change, population growth, and urbanisation mean that without effective action more Australians’ livelihoods will be impacted by disasters into the future and the cost of those disasters will continue to grow,” the brief stated."​

 

[sptrawler]

The debate becomes more and more bizarre.

 

[rederob]

Who could have foreseen the intensity of the current bushfire season? Apparently, quite a few people did but no one was listening:

Home affairs warned Australian government of growing climate disaster risk after May election

"The government was warned by the Department of Home Affairs after the May election that Australia faced more frequent and severe heatwaves and bushfires, and that livelihoods would be affected without effective action on climate change.

The department’s incoming government brief to the home affairs minister, Peter Dutton, warned of “disasters” exacerbated by climate change.

“The physical effects of climate change, population growth, and urbanisation mean that without effective action more Australians’ livelihoods will be impacted by disasters into the future and the cost of those disasters will continue to grow,” the brief stated."​

Jack, this is not news... but thanks for the enlightening article.
What has happened and will continue through this summer has been understood as inevitable for a very long time.
The PM is correct in saying that Australia is prone to bushfires and drought, but has displayed a willful ignorance to the root cause of its severity on very much partisan lines.
It is also true that Australia can only have a small impact on reducing global CO2 emissions, but the corollary continues to be that we are instead exacerbating the problem despite having the tools to make substantial changes.
I vote that Mr Morrison be allowed to take longer holidays henceforth... say of a few year's duration, and put someone with no less than half a brain in charge in the interim (I vote @Smurf1976's cat [despite being overqualified on the intellectual front], after all who else can better lick the problem).

 

[rederob]

Who could have foreseen the intensity of the current bushfire season? Apparently, quite a few people did but no one was listening

In this link you can just change 2013 to 2019 and the rest is almost true word for word (except that more climate records were broken this year).
What this shows unequivocally is that the federal government remains asleep at the wheel despite the evidence being palpable for so many years now.
It's what happens when you get a lot of lip service from a PM "accepting that climate change is real" and then taking no action.
No doubt rural fire brigades will have a lot to say after the travesty of federal concern this summer, and their voices will get to be heard. And while it was heartening to hear Morrison offer "whatever is needed" right now, it really is a problem without any decent policies to address how similar events in future can be better tackled.

 

[Jack Aubrey]

In this link you can just change 2013 to 2019 and the rest is almost true word for word (except that more climate records were broken this year).
What this shows unequivocally is that the federal government remains asleep at the wheel despite the evidence being palpable for so many years now.
It's what happens when you get a lot of lip service from a PM "accepting that climate change is real" and then taking no action.
No doubt rural fire brigades will have a lot to say after the travesty of federal concern this summer, and their voices will get to be heard. And while it was heartening to hear Morrison offer "whatever is needed" right now, it really is a problem without any decent policies to address how similar events in future can be better tackled.

Great find redrob. I think the Government's (and Rupert Murdoch's) policy is to find the authors of that report and blame them for the fires.

 

[Logique]

This isn't ABC/BBC News Jack - radio Climate Change on high rotation. All kinds of diversity, except diversity of opinion

https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2020/01/fire-experts-from-central-casting/ ..As I wrote in my book, Firestick Ecology: Climate hysteria conveniently absolves green academics from culpability for the human, environmental and economic disasters that they have visited on Australia through their bad advice to governments on land and fire management.
..Vic Jurskis, a veteran forester and fire expert, is the author of Firestick Ecology: fair dinkum science in plain English..

 

[Jack Aubrey]

This isn't ABC/BBC News Jack - radio Climate Change on high rotation. All kinds of diversity, except diversity of opinion

I have no problem with seeing evidence-based "alternative views", Logique, and input from a former forestry chief should be considered alongside that of former fire chiefs, economic advisers, ecologists and climate scientists - although that article is not entirely clear about whether he has a problem with what has actually been done or what a couple af academics once said should be done. I hope the wash-up to this season's fires and drought includes a wide-ranging, independent inquiry where the apparent (but not necessarily real) contradictions between different expert views can be probed. I think the views of politicians and media commentators of any political bent should be ignored along with any social media posts by self-appointed citizen experts. I am actually stunned by the number of people on line who think they know what (and who) caused this fire season to be so catastrophic over such a wide area despite their not knowing the difference between "back burning" and "hazard reduction burning" or between working conservationists and somewhat mythical "inner city leftist greenies".

 

[jbocker]

I read an article on how do native animals survive bushfires. And post bushfire activity.
It left me wondering what we could learn, in materials and use / design and construction. Not only for human habitation but replicating longer term shelters for native animals also.
I also wonder post fires whether there are studies (I daresay there would be) on types of constructions that survive. I wonder how rammed earth performs, as with animals they seem to get low ground (water courses / burrows / burying) so cooler earth seems a 'shelter and insulator' which I imagine rammed earth and bricks would emulate.

Are these an opportunity for investment, not sure. Are there companies doing this, don't know.​

 

[rederob]

There is a lot of evidence that our continent's flora has been shaped in many regions by tens of thousands of years of "burning." Some will have been from natural fires (lightning strikes - as remains true today) and a lot more from our indigenous folk.
Prior to white settlement fires were controlled by a small number of people carrying green-leafed branches, and the burns were not massive in scale. Nevertheless they managed to farm large tracts of land in their unique way and not want for food, according to many reports dating back to the 1800s.
What never occurred in our country's historical past - at least not based on the best available weather and proxy climate records - were decades of ever increasing temperatures, more prolonged dry periods, and a rapid closing of the window for safe burning to occur so that fuel loads could be reduced.
Recent fires have torn through forest areas that have been subject to fuel load reduction, and yet the full force of modern fighting has been unable to quell them.
Blaming environmentalists or Greens is a very cheap shot and totally ignores the parlous state of our flora situation with regard to its ongoing vulnerability to fire as a result of climate change.

 

[Jack Aubrey]

I read an article on how do native animals survive bushfires. And post bushfire activity.
It left me wondering what we could learn, in materials and use / design and construction. Not only for human habitation but replicating longer term shelters for native animals also.
I also wonder post fires whether there are studies (I daresay there would be) on types of constructions that survive. I wonder how rammed earth performs, as with animals they seem to get low ground (water courses / burrows / burying) so cooler earth seems a 'shelter and insulator' which I imagine rammed earth and bricks would emulate.

Are these an opportunity for investment, not sure. Are there companies doing this, don't know.​

I know there has been a lot done to revise building codes in NSW and Victoria to account for increased fire risk (and new knowledge). Victoria has a program to build underground fire shelters for all rural schools.

There is also a lot of knowledge available on how best to protect infrastructure and buildings.

A friend of mine (who is a former forester) wrote this article recently based on his recent work in fire protection:
These bushfires are a historic event. Here is what we should learn from them

 

[rederob]

Where Logique goes up in smoke:
"Despite this, agencies met or exceeded their hazard reduction targets this year, which highlights how overwhelming the fire weather extremes have been – in a lot of areas the fuel reduction simply didn’t work. As has been reported several times there have been significant losses during the current fires even in areas where hazard reduction burns had been carried out. The structure of these forests still allowed damaging crown fires to develop, even where the low-level fuels had been reduced."

 

[jbocker]

I know there has been a lot done to revise building codes in NSW and Victoria to account for increased fire risk (and new knowledge). Victoria has a program to build underground fire shelters for all rural schools.

There is also a lot of knowledge available on how best to protect infrastructure and buildings.

A friend of mine (who is a former forester) wrote this article recently based on his recent work in fire protection:
These bushfires are a historic event. Here is what we should learn from them

Thank You Jack. Controlled burns are interesting, I understand that aboriginals set fire to areas when leaving them during their nomadic seasonal ventures. Its purpose was to rejuvenate the area so that there would be plentiful food sources upon their return. A lot can be learned from one of the most sustainable races on the planet.
An issue with controlled burns is timing and availability of resources at the opportune moment. I am ignorant of the process but I do wonder if we call on the army (all armed forces) and army reserve, police trainees to assist in this matter. I imagine it would be excellent training opportunity.
Why not have the politicians involved too? Seriously. A week a year.
My apologies for my ignorant suggestions if some of these is already in place.

 

[Logique]

I fear that any Royal Commission, should it eventuate, will go the way of all previous. The NSW Rural Fire Service will boycott proceedings (they'll find some pretext), and the government of the day will go to water. Outcome: nothing changes.

But people have died this time, and others have lost their homes and livelihoods. The long suffering public deserves better than some confected sham with pre-determined outcomes

 

[qldfrog]

1

I fear that any Royal Commission, should it eventuate, will go the way of all previous. The NSW Rural Fire Service will boycott proceedings (they'll find some pretext), and the government of the day will go to water. Outcome: nothing changes.

But people have died this time, and others have lost their homes and livelihoods. The long suffering public deserves better than some confected sham with pre-determined outcomes

1949 fires made so much damage that a royal commission was established.did not help much, but i would welcome a fact and evidence based review acted on.i doubt it is even possible to have some objective outcome wo the rubbish we see daily in the news

 

[Logique]

ScoMo wasn't meant to win the "Climate Election", any more than the Donald and the Deplorables were meant to beat "Crooked Hillary". So they're after him:

Delingpole: Australian ‘Climate’ Fires Are Pure Fake News Propaganda
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...-climate-fires-are-pure-fake-news-propaganda/ ..By James Delingopole 12 Jan 2020

Australia’s ‘climate’ fires are fast becoming the biggest fake news scare story of 2020. All the world’s stupidest, most annoying, hand-wringing, virtue-signalling leftists, luvvies, eco-loons, shyster politicians, second-rate activist scientists and other bottom feeders are jumping on the bandwagon..

..Australia’s leftists have never forgiven Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party (ie Australia’s conservatives) for winning the general election in May 2019. That’s because it was billed as the ‘climate election’, which the left was supposed to win...

 

[rederob]

ScoMo wasn't meant to win the "Climate Election", any more than the Donald and the Deplorables were meant to beat "Crooked Hillary". So they're after him:

Delingpole: Australian ‘Climate’ Fires Are Pure Fake News Propaganda
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...-climate-fires-are-pure-fake-news-propaganda/ ..By James Delingopole 12 Jan 2020

Australia’s ‘climate’ fires are fast becoming the biggest fake news scare story of 2020. All the world’s stupidest, most annoying, hand-wringing, virtue-signalling leftists, luvvies, eco-loons, shyster politicians, second-rate activist scientists and other bottom feeders are jumping on the bandwagon..

..Australia’s leftists have never forgiven Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party (ie Australia’s conservatives) for winning the general election in May 2019. That’s because it was billed as the ‘climate election’, which the left was supposed to win...

Some people read science and some people read from the gutter.
You merely cement your ignorance in these areas of the forum.

 

[basilio]

Logique did you ever read the analysis the changing risks around bushfires in Australia ? Check out teh link below.
I suggest it has more research, more facts and meat than the Breitbart story.

In this link you can just change 2013 to 2019 and the rest is almost true word for word (except that more climate records were broken this year).

 

[rederob]

Researchers have been well aware of what was likely to occur:
"Bushfires
Recent projections of fire weather (Lucas et al. 2007) suggest that fire seasons will start earlier, end slightly later, and generally be more intense. This effect increases over time, but should be directly observable by 2020."

 

[jbocker]

Logique did you ever read the analysis the changing risks around bushfires in Australia ? Check out teh link below.
I suggest it has more research, more facts and meat than the Breitbart story.

Something I hadn't heard before is the reference to cement production wrt to carbon emissions. I assume that, as it is included in this estimate, cement product is significant.

"For example, from 2003 to 2012, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production rose by 2.7% per year (Global Carbon Project, 2013), and the trend over the past decade is consistent with the IPCC’s highest emission scenario." extracted from the Climate Council 2013 report, BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE AUSTRALIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT.

I will google it.​

 

[jbocker]

Something I hadn't heard before is the reference to cement production wrt to carbon emissions. I assume that, as it is included in this estimate, cement product is significant.

"For example, from 2003 to 2012, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production rose by 2.7% per year (Global Carbon Project, 2013), and the trend over the past decade is consistent with the IPCC’s highest emission scenario." extracted from the Climate Council 2013 report, BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE AUSTRALIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT.

I will google it.​

http://cement.org.au/SustainabilityNew/ClimateChange/CementEmissions.aspx
"Cement Emissions
According to the International Energy Agency, the cement sector is the third-largest industrial energy consumer and the second-largest industrial CO2 emitter. Carbon dioxide emitted during the cement production process represents the most important source of non-energy industrial process of global carbon dioxide emissions.
Cement production accounts for around 7% of total global industrial energyuse and about 7% of global emissions.
Elsewhere 5% of Global emissions is mentioned.