How do we deal with bushfires in a warming climate?

[qldfrog]

I agree with all of that, in addition I think these measures should be financed by an export tax on thermal coal.

Somehow, the thing that contributes most to global warming has to pay for the damage its doing.

As you know, I doubt CO2 has much of a role but I also believe we are, as a nation, selling ourselves cheap with our mineral exports; so why not tax these and build a climate mitigation funds: basically infrastructure, levees, sea walls, dams, fire management, water pipes: we build thousand kms gas or oil pipelines but doing the same for water seems always too expensive ...
[Tender for olympics is obviously more important with the myriad of cushy positions involved..]

Do NOT include any CO2 research, EV or solar farm/wind farm subsidies or any CO2 reduction scheme there, otherwise it will be doomed from the start with ideological fights
Only a loony..not that there are not many, would pretend that our action alone can stop climate change, so we should all agree from left to right that remediation is helpful, at least let's do that
Based on the last carbon tax, I expect the green to oppose..cause it is not enough but if the 2 majors are OK, it will go ahead
And the good thing with this, is that the money would remain here, be a nice economic push, and should have a ROI that would justify funding by debt
Too simple and common sense to have a chance to be implemented but I am hopefully being wrong so let's buy the big infrastructure companies: which ones are left on the asx???Wagner?

 

[IFocus]

As you know, I doubt CO2 has much of a role but I also believe we are, as a nation, selling ourselves cheap with our mineral exports; so why not tax these and build a climate mitigation funds: basically infrastructure, levees, sea walls, dams, fire management, water pipes: we build thousand kms gas or oil pipelines but doing the same for water seems always too expensive ...
[Tender for olympics is obviously more important with the myriad of cushy positions involved..]

I totally agree but......

I just think of Norway who turned their resources into a bank deposit for the whole nation verses Australia determined to give all of ours away.

The mining tax run by Rudd / Swan (was actually a treasury idea) smashed by political treachery (Abbott) backed by Gina on the back of a truck screaming they couldn't afford it.

Gina no doubt doing it tough today.

WA National Party Brendon Grylls proposed an increase $5 / ton royalty for iron ore and got lynched by the mining company's and thrown out.

A tax has no chance IMHO money power wont let it.

 

[SirRumpole]

A tax has no chance IMHO money power wont let it.

It's one of those things that has to be done without taking it to an election except in the most general terms, ie don't specify a rate or what will be taxed, just say something like "we need to get more out of our mineral wealth", and decide later how to do it.

 

[explod]

We need to take over and take back the industries themselves.

We sold Telstra at a price that it was earning for us in just each three years. SEC the same. We could do a national service type thing to man up for mining at the start to get the city street walkers going. Take over the power industry etc. Communistic it may sound but it would solve the problem and we'd still have our democratic elections.

 

[qldfrog]

I agree the mining lobby is stronger than both right and left, you obviously mentioned Rudd taxed killed by the right, but also remember the deal Julia did after with full union support under the miners pressure...
You probably need to do it as @SirRumpole suggests, and to do this you need a Johnson majority
It can be done the oil and gas tax/royalty is a reasonably well done tax
So we know what do to, how to finance it and both right left but the green could agree on it...

 

[IFocus]

Worth a read

Ken Henry's tax review is gathering dust, but its ideas could kick-start Australia's economy

Ten years ago to this day, Ken Henry handed then-treasurer Wayne Swan a wish list of tax reforms to set Australia up for the 21st century.

That's right, two days out from Christmas — when most people were thinking about lunch, cricket and the beach — the then-Treasury secretary's gift to his boss was a 783-page tax tome.

No wonder the Rudd government's response to the review took months to come out.

A decade later, the Henry Tax Review still sits gathering dust.



https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-23/henry-tax-review-ten-years-on/11817328

 

[sptrawler]

The problem is that the issue has been politicised and the greatest mistake anyone can make is to think that modern politics is a means of actually solving any problem. In reality once something is politicised that's usually game over in terms of an effective outcome - whatever happens from that point will be a long and drawn out affair with a result that's nowhere near optimal.

Personally I prefer the scientific approach over a political one but the trouble is, the moment anyone decided to go down that track, to apply science as the basis for policy, then we'd have protests saying that we shouldn't be relying on science and that a political approach should instead be taken since a scientific approach by its nature is not a democratic one. They'll say something to the effect that decisions should be made by the people's representatives not faceless bureaucrats - in other words they'll fight tooth and nail against a scientific approach the moment anyone tries to implement it and there's the problem. It has become all about politics, opposing the other side for the sake of it, rather than actually solving any real problem.


I'd take science over politics anyday though but I'm fully aware that many won't. They'll support "science" in exactly the same way they support "free speech". Support it only when they agree with the message which means they don't actually support the concept at all and are simply using it as a convenient prop when it suits.

Well said smurf and explains exactly why we are where we are, neither side is listening to the other and neither side has the whole answer.
One side knows what it wants, but doesn't know how to pay for it. The other side knows what is needed, but doesn't want to go broke supplying it.
Just my opinion.

 

[Smurf1976]

Worth a read

Ken Henry's tax review is gathering dust, but its ideas could kick-start Australia's economy

Land tax is the one I can see a problem with.

Agreed that stamp duty is a silly and inefficient tax and should be replaced but as a barrier to doing so there will be rather a lot who've already paid that, in many cases several times during thier life, and who simply don't have the means to now pay again just to remain living in their own home.

Pretty much anyone who's retired, either due to age or disability or simply loss of employment, will be in that category as will others. Well, they could pay if the tax is $50 a year but realistically it's going to be very much more than that if it's go raise comparable revenue.

Only realistic way to do it that I can see would be a grandfathering arrangement. If you've paid stamp duty on the property you own now then you never pay land tax on it so long as you continue to live there as your principal place of residence. That would remove the hurdles both practical and ideological.

Overall though, it's not at all a good reflection on where we're at that it has all taken so long. Tax is one thing but I could say the same about the energy industry and others would point to all sorts of other things. We're moving far too slowly at getting things done.

 

[sptrawler]

Worth a read

Ken Henry's tax review is gathering dust, but its ideas could kick-start Australia's economy

Ten years ago to this day, Ken Henry handed then-treasurer Wayne Swan a wish list of tax reforms to set Australia up for the 21st century.

That's right, two days out from Christmas — when most people were thinking about lunch, cricket and the beach — the then-Treasury secretary's gift to his boss was a 783-page tax tome.

No wonder the Rudd government's response to the review took months to come out.

A decade later, the Henry Tax Review still sits gathering dust.



https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-23/henry-tax-review-ten-years-on/11817328

That is a good read Ifocus, and is probably what needs to be re read by the Government, it may be outdated, but the general thrust is probably more pertinent now than it was back then.
There is no way we can just keep upping the cost of labor here and expect us to be competitive, all that will happen is we will continue to slide down the industrialisation index, untill we become a third World Country.
The only obvious way to stop the slide is to re asses our tax system, in a holistic way, not in a hotch potch way.

 

[kahuna1]

Whilst we burn ...

In Madrid, small and developing countries accused the United States and others, such as Brazil and Australia, of obstructing key parts of the negotiations and undermining the spirit and goals of the Paris accord.

Countries already hard hit by climate change argued that large emitters continue to dawdle, as other imperiled nations face intensifying cyclones, increased flooding and other climate-related disasters.

"This is an absolute tragedy and a travesty," Ian Fry, the climate change ambassador from the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu, told fellow negotiators. Fry specifically pointed to the United States for playing a destructive role in the talks.

The United States is in its final year as part of the international agreement it once helped spearhead. The Trump administration has said it officially will withdraw from the Paris accord on Nov. 4, 2020 - the day after the US presidential election.
https://www.sciencealert.com/un-cli...nks-to-obstructions-by-major-emitting-nations

I do get that the nexus between recent fires and climate change is NOT a direct one.
It is however clear record low humidity, record low rainfall and I found several at 60% of the all time 120 year low rainfall for 2019 ... and record temperatures, all predicted have some role in these fires.

Debating if its climate change is at this stage an absurdity. Denying the existence of any issues as our goverment just did in Madrid is if anything worse.

Yes Fuel loads and lack of burn offs added to the issue but in some cases ... they did not occur due to record HOT and DRY winter and spring and in fact records.

Whilst I accept the USA and Trump with a coal barons wife ... as the USA UN Ambassador with ZERO qualifications ... and head of EPA in the USA a coal Lobbyist ...

Well .. Australia, not to be too blunt, we have to take our own course.
More burn offs ... irrespective to some extent of the potential dangers.
Second is to stop the bloody crappy debate when the science is clear and its getting worse, and will get worse slowly as time goes on.

Unlikely any change of course when we have people like Gina Rhinehart the sponsor of the Australian branch of climate deniers ... and several other vested interests basically controlling any and all debate.

We cannot undo what has been done.
We must adapt to mitigate and minimize some of the risks and change as we humans sometimes can do.

I suspect of course its not going to happen. Not when much of the debate is polarized.
Whilst I am a believer, not so stupid as to be one of the 3% who dismiss any change, I sadly have to be a realist. As I listened to ABC some imbecile from clearly the far far left was decrying the new natural gas electricity plants the govt is planning. Whilst I would love wind and solar and hydro to be able to cover all electricity needs, the technology and cost of storage is NOT QUITE THERE. Not even close. So we, Australians need at times quick base load electricity and coal is a bit slower to bring on line than gas, dirtier than gas and frankly listening to this whack-job he failed totally to mention WHY we need some base load power capacity. It is a reality ....

All these issues, about greenhouse and this year about fires .... sadly can and do fall into one side denying any issues with anything ... even that we so far have broken the record area burnt in NSW by 25% or that all time temp records for year were smashed early 2019 and December totals and high temperature records fell in most places on two days and for my regions, by a bloody big margin as these things go.

Realistically, nothing is going to happen. Scott Morrison will with Frydenburg and Barnaby along with nutters like Pauline deny and claim there is no issue. I note with wry amusement Pauline declared the coral on the great barrier reef was fine, the Barrier Reef authority on the other hand which has monitored some sites for 50 years declared some had zero Coral.

All is well ....

Merry Chistmas

 

[Smurf1976]

Whilst we burn ...

I disagree that the technology doesn't exist to go fully renewable. There's a need to work out the detail of its implementation and there are issues with politics and economics but nothing needs to actually be invented as such. It could be done with present technology.

Realistically though everyone's in the same boat and by that I mean multiple issues have essentially the same problem. Climate, fires, water, electricity, gas, transport - it's all interconnected in many ways.

Relating to that I think it's fair to say that we're at the point now where as you say it's about adapting rather than avoiding and that applies to a lot of this.

Climate, fires etc are one side of it. It's too late to avoid issues, we have to adapt now.

On the related energy supply side it's much the same. There's rather a lot of the proverbial time bombs out there and nowhere near enough effort going into defusing them. There's quite a few who "off the record" think the bushfires are a decent analogy for what's likely - a crisis that a few knew was inevitable, most didn't see coming, and which once it erupts there's no easy way to put the genie back in the bottle.

I can see a few things like that unfolding. Fires are one. Energy is another. Water is another. Etc. Situations where a few know it's inevitable but all seems quiet and the concern seems somewhat doubtful in the minds of most until numerous incidents occur in relatively quick succession leading to a crisis. A crisis that was inevitably going to occur and was entirely foreseeable but the details of which were anyone's guess until it happened.

 

[Smurf1976]

I note with wry amusement Pauline declared the coral on the great barrier reef was fine

She may have missed the "r" in the word "coral" and thinks that it all sounds just fine that there's coal on the reef.....

 

[wayneL]

The Bush Fire

Henry Lawson, 1905

• 
  
  Ah, better the thud of the deadly gun, and the crash of the bursting shell,
  Than the terrible silence where drought is fought out there in the western hell;
  And better the rattle of rifles near, or the thunder on deck at sea,
  Than the sound — most hellish of all to hear — of a fire where it should not be.
  
  On the runs to the west of the Dingo Scrubs there was drought, and ruin, and death,
  And the sandstorm came from the dread north-east with the blast of a furnace-breath;
  Till at last one day, at the fierce sunrise, a boundary-rider woke,
  And saw, in the place of the distant haze, a curtain of light blue smoke.
  
  There is saddling-up by the cockey's hut, and out in the station yard,
  And away to the north, north-east, north-west, the bushmen are riding hard.
  The pickets are out and many a scout, and many a mulga wire,
  While Bill and Jim, with their faces grim, are riding to meet the fire.
  
  It roars for days in the hopeless scrubs, and across, where the ground seems bare,
  With a cackle and hiss, like the hissing of snakes, the fire is travelling there;
  Till at last, exhausted by sleeplessness, and the terrible toil and heat,
  The squatter is crying, 'My God! the wool!' and the farmer, 'My God! the wheat!'
  
  But there comes a drunkard (who reels as he rides), with the news from the roadside pub: —
  'Pat Murphy — the cockey — cut off by the fire! — way back in the Dingo Scrub!'
  'Let the wheat and the woolshed go to — — ' Well, they do as each great heart bids;
  They are riding a race for the Dingo Scrub — for Pat and his wife and kids.
  
  And who is leading the race with death? An ill-matched three, you'll allow;
  Flash Jim the breaker and Boozing Bill (who is riding steadily now),
  And Constable Dunn, of the Mounted Police, is riding between the two
  (He wants Flash Jim, but the job can wait till they get the Murphys through).
  
  As they strike the track through the blazing scrub, the trooper is heard to shout:
  'We'll take them on to the Two-mile Tank, if we cannot bring them out!'
  A half-mile more, and the rest rein back, retreating, half-choked, halfblind;
  And the three are gone from the sight of men, and the bush fire roars behind.
  
  The Bushman wiped the tears of smoke, and like Bushmen wept and swore;
  'Poor Bill will be wanting his drink to-night as never he did before.
  'And Dunn was the best in the whole damned force!' says a client of Dunn's, with pride;
  I reckon he'll serve his summons on Jim — when they get to the other side.
  
  It is daylight again, and the fire is past, and the black scrub silent and grim,
  Except for the blaze of an old dead tree, or the crash of a falling limb;
  And the Bushmen are riding again on the run, with hearts and with eyes that fill,
  To look for the bodies of Constable Dunn, Flash Jim, and Boozing Bill.
  
  They are found in the mud of the Two-mile Tank, where a fiend might scarce survive,
  But the Bushmen gather from words they hear that the bodies are much alive.
  There is Swearing Pat, with his grey beard singed, and his language of lurid hue,
  And his tough old wife, and his half-baked kids, and the three who dragged them through.
  
  Old Pat is deploring his burnt-out home, and his wife the climate warm;
  And Jim the loss of his favourite horse, and Dunn his uniform;
  And Boozing Bill, with a raging thirst, is cursing the Dingo Scrub —
  He'll only ask for the loan of a flask and a lift to the nearest pub.
  
  Flash Jim the Breaker is lying low — blue-paper is after him,
  And Dunn, the trooper, is riding his rounds with a blind eye out for Jim,
  And Boozing Bill is fighting D.Ts. in the township of Sudden Jerk —
  When they're wanted again in the Dingo Scrubs, they'll be there to do the work.

 

[qldfrog]

For what it is worth, SEQld got widespread rain so we are now off the hook here for a year.45mm and going at home
I hope some changes will happen to avoid a repeat and the risk of worst outcomes next year

 

[Smurf1976]

The rapid escalation of the fire situation in NSW and Vic should serve as a reminder that this pattern tends to play out with many things both natural and man made.

Something bumbles along as a moderate problem for however long and then suddenly erupts as a full blown crisis which few saw coming.

Fires are one thing like that. The experts have been warning for years that not enough was being done.

Financial market debacles tend to take the exact same pattern. Modest problems bumble along, a few smart ones getting out because they can see what's coming, then it all blows up real quick.

I'm pretty confident that we'll see the same with infrastructure. Probably energy but possibly water or transport. There are plenty of problems bumbling along, the experts know things aren't good and that there are many vulnerabilities, and odds are a full blown crisis will suddenly erupt without further warning when it comes but exactly when and with what precise trigger is anyone's guess. All we can say is there's too much vulnerability.

Of relevance to the forum is to understand that this is a broader concept than any specific example. It's very common that problems simmer along for an extended period and then some "tipping point" event occurs and it's all over real quick.

Think of it like termites eating the wood or rust eating the steel. A massive amount of damage can be done but all still looks well until moments later the whole thing's collapsed on the ground.

Business failures tend to take a similar pattern for example. So do market crashes and other financial mishaps. Moral of the story being to be alert for the warning signs and don't dismiss anyone raising concerns without some effort to determine if they're valid.

 

[chiff]

The rapid escalation of the fire situation in NSW and Vic should serve as a reminder that this pattern tends to play out with many things both natural and man made.

Something bumbles along as a moderate problem for however long and then suddenly erupts as a full blown crisis which few saw coming.

Fires are one thing like that. The experts have been warning for years that not enough was being done.

Financial market debacles tend to take the exact same pattern. Modest problems bumble along, a few smart ones getting out because they can see what's coming, then it all blows up real quick.

I'm pretty confident that we'll see the same with infrastructure. Probably energy but possibly water or transport. There are plenty of problems bumbling along, the experts know things aren't good and that there are many vulnerabilities, and odds are a full blown crisis will suddenly erupt without further warning when it comes but exactly when and with what precise trigger is anyone's guess. All we can say is there's too much vulnerability.

Of relevance to the forum is to understand that this is a broader concept than any specific example. It's very common that problems simmer along for an extended period and then some "tipping point" event occurs and it's all over real quick.

Think of it like termites eating the wood or rust eating the steel. A massive amount of damage can be done but all still looks well until moments later the whole thing's collapsed on the ground.

Business failures tend to take a similar pattern for example. So do market crashes and other financial mishaps. Moral of the story being to be alert for the warning signs and don't dismiss anyone raising concerns without some effort to determine if they're valid.

Think the Murray-Darling basin as well.Probably more obvious though.

 

[wayneL]

The rapid escalation of the fire situation in NSW and Vic should serve as a reminder that this pattern tends to play out with many things both natural and man made.

Something bumbles along as a moderate problem for however long and then suddenly erupts as a full blown crisis which few saw coming.

Fires are one thing like that. The experts have been warning for years that not enough was being done.

Financial market debacles tend to take the exact same pattern. Modest problems bumble along, a few smart ones getting out because they can see what's coming, then it all blows up real quick.

I'm pretty confident that we'll see the same with infrastructure. Probably energy but possibly water or transport. There are plenty of problems bumbling along, the experts know things aren't good and that there are many vulnerabilities, and odds are a full blown crisis will suddenly erupt without further warning when it comes but exactly when and with what precise trigger is anyone's guess. All we can say is there's too much vulnerability.

Of relevance to the forum is to understand that this is a broader concept than any specific example. It's very common that problems simmer along for an extended period and then some "tipping point" event occurs and it's all over real quick.

Think of it like termites eating the wood or rust eating the steel. A massive amount of damage can be done but all still looks well until moments later the whole thing's collapsed on the ground.

Business failures tend to take a similar pattern for example. So do market crashes and other financial mishaps. Moral of the story being to be alert for the warning signs and don't dismiss anyone raising concerns without some effort to determine if they're valid.

Great comment.

My fear is that the same may apply to our very culture.

 

[SirRumpole]

On the subject of dealing with fires, I wonder if this great Aussie product could be modified to fight fires instead of people.

 

[kahuna1]

Red is Record low rainfall

EVER

Red is Record low rainfall


2019 not done as yet but its WORSE ......

debate or should I call it deliberate denial and claims greenies or was it martians did not do controlled burns .... even an idiot like SCOMO can see its not prudent to burn in record DRY ... HOT ... PERIODS ..

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/history/rainfall/

 

[Macquack]

I quick story after fires had burnt through my property back in November.

As the sunset, the fire fighters had packed up their gear and gone to fight other fires. I was left just gazing at the black and still smoldering earth when a riot of kookaburras flew in and peached on a tree above me and started their well known rapturous laughter. All I could think of was the little buggers were taking the piss out of me. " You superior human beings think you are the apex species on the planet. If you were so clever, you would have wings". They proceeded to fly off into the sunset, leaving me feeling a bit inferior.