Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Sean K]

$2290 proving to be some sort of support here, then weak support at $2200 and a floor (hopefully) at that old ceiling around $2070.






$210, $200 and $190 ish on the GLD.



A bit of a Head and Shoulders forming there with the neckline at support around $2300 ish. Need that to fill in and disappear.

Wyckoff's August Gold chart is slightly different. Let's say around $2300 ish looks to be important short term.

 

[ducati916]

Survey of Central Banks:



All the charts: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/2024-central-bank-gold-reserves-survey

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

There should be a thread for "I don't know".

I don't know but I would not be surprised to see Gold accelerate up from here.

On technicals and fundamentals. Too many to list.

I'm increasing my exposure.

gg

 

[DaveTrade]

There should be a thread for "I don't know".

I don't know but I would not be surprised to see Gold accelerate up from here.

On technicals and fundamentals. Too many to list.

I'm increasing my exposure.

gg

@Garpal Gumnut your going in a little bit early for my liking but I can see it coming soon. The gold market has been holding up well in a sideways pattern, this is very bullish, it shows that buyers are already coming into the market. When it breaks out of this sideways range we should get a good tradable move.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

@Garpal Gumnut your going in a little bit early for my liking but I can see it coming soon. The gold market has been holding up well in a sideways pattern, this is very bullish, it shows that buyers are already coming into the market. When it breaks out of this sideways range we should get a good tradable move.
View attachment 179855

I was just reading about Biden and everyone except his leaching family trying to oust him. The last time a President decided not to run again was in 1968 during the Vietnam War.

Due to Lyndon Johnson’s announcement there was a financial crisis and a run on Gold.

Who knows the future?

gg

 

[Chipp]

I was just reading about Biden and everyone except his leaching family trying to oust him. The last time a President decided not to run again was in 1968 during the Vietnam War.

Due to Lyndon Johnson’s announcement there was a financial crisis and a run on Gold.

Who knows the future?

gg

Was interesting times 68 - 80 . After Trumps Inaugeration in Jan 2017 gold flew . Few things aligning atm , couple aren't . Need DXY to roll over ........... Orange pane is US inflation YoY

 

[Sean K]

There should be a thread for "I don't know".

I don't know but I would not be surprised to see Gold accelerate up from here.

On technicals and fundamentals. Too many to list.

I'm increasing my exposure.

gg

Let's go for a threepeat. Target 2500 ish.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Was interesting times 68 - 80 . After Trumps Inaugeration in Jan 2017 gold flew . Few things aligning atm , couple aren't . Need DXY to roll over ........... Orange pane is US inflation YoY


View attachment 179860

I think the Dixie is unrepresentative of what it is supposed to be, a basket of important "other" currencies. No China nor S.Korea and includes Sweden, very 70's thinking in its constuenets. Nonetheless I agree many people watch it.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

There should be a thread for "I don't know".

I don't know but I would not be surprised to see Gold accelerate up from here.

On technicals and fundamentals. Too many to list.

I'm increasing my exposure.

gg

Something has put a bunsen burner under the Gold price today.



gg

 

[Sean K]

Something has put a bunsen burner under the Gold price today.

View attachment 179869

gg

All the chatter on ASF and at the RIH no doubt.

 

[rcw1]

Good evening
Gold, gold and more gold

Australia’s gold exports rose by 41% year-on-year to $8.5 billion in the March quarter 2024, a record in nominal terms. The gain was driven by higher gold prices and a weaker Australian dollar (export unit value up by 26%) and a 12% year-on-year increase in export volumes.

World gold demand decreased by 5.3% year-on-year to 1,100 tonnes in the March quarter 2024. This fall was largely driven by a 28% decline in investment demand, with central bank demand continuing to be elevated.

Official sector (central banks and other government financial institutions) gold buying rose marginally year-on-year to 290 tonnes in the March quarter 2024 — a record March quarter total. Official sector demand has been strong since mid-2022, with purchases dominated by emerging market central banks eager to lift gold reserves to diversify their reserve portfolio and boost the liquidity of reserves.

According to World Gold Council data for declared gold purchases, Türkiye was the largest buyer, adding a reported 30 tonnes (or 6%) to its reserves. China continued to make significant purchases over the quarter, acquiring a reported 27 tonnes to bring gold reserves up to a total of 2,262 tonnes — up by 16% since reported purchases recommenced in October 2022. Other notable central bank purchases were reported for India (19 tonnes), and Kazakhstan (16 tonnes).

Gold purchases by non-government buyers were lower year-on-year in the March quarter 2024, with slight growth in technological applications offset by weaker investment demand, particularly in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Investment in gold bars and coins increased by 2.8% year-on-year in the March quarter 2024, supported by record prices in major markets.

Bar and coin investment in China rose sharply to a 7-year high of 110 tonnes. Demand was supported by a weaker Yuan and a weak and volatile performance from other asset classes (such as property and shares). Bar and coin investment rose strongly (by 19%) in India, supported by the continued weakening of the Rupee and the strong price outlook.

A total of 114 tonnes of gold flowed out of gold-backed ETFs in the March quarter 2024, following 245 tonnes of outflows in 2023. (ETF outflows are counted as reducing gold demand, while inflows are counted as additional.) Demand for gold ETFs remained weak in Western markets due to high bond yields and stronger currencies, while ETFs have continued to grow in Asia — especially in China.

Global gold jewellery demand declined by 2.0% year-on-year in the March quarter 2024. Jewellery consumption fell in volume terms due to record domestic prices in many markets — particularly China. However, consumer demand was still strong, as indicated by 7% year-on-year growth in value terms to US$32 billion. Jewellery consumption in China fell by 6% year-on-year to 184 tonnes, with a price surge through March compounding the usual post-Lunar New Year lull in spending.

Demand for gold in technology increased by 10% year-on-year to 79 tonnes in the March quarter 2024. Recovery and growth in electronics demand (such as for AI-enabled consumer products) increased demand for gold in electronics such as light-emitting diodes and memory chips.
Strong investment demand to drive gold consumption to a peak in 2024

World gold consumption is forecast to rise by 1.9% to 4,500 tonnes in 2024 (Figure 10.1). This increase is expected to be mainly driven by growth in investment demand (particularly for gold bars and coins) and to a lesser extent, a rebound in consumer electronics demand.



World supply increased in the March quarter 2024 World gold supply increased by 2.6% year-on-year to about 1,240 tonnes in the March quarter 2024, driven by both higher mine production and increased recycling. Global mine production reached 890 tonnes in 2023, the highest March quarter total on record. Production growth was led by China, Canada, Indonesia and Ghana.

Production in China — the world’s largest gold producing nation — rose marginally year-on-year to 86 tonnes in the March quarter 2024. The World Gold Council reported increased output from the key provinces of Shandong and Henan, while output from lower grade operations is expected to expand in response to high prices.

In Australia — the world’s third-largest gold producing nation — output decreased by 4.0% year-on-year to 69 tonnes in the March quarter 2024. Production was lower due to disruptions from heavy rainfall in March, alongside decreasing mine grades and several mine closures.

Production in Canada rose by 2.2% year-on-year to about 49 tonnes in the March quarter 2024, with higher production reported at Agnico Eagle’s Meadowbank complex (up by 15% year-on-year) and Argonaut’s Magino mine continuing to ramp up after initial production in June 2023.

Output in Ghana is estimated to have risen by 15% year-on-year as operations improved at the Ahafo mine (following outages to the mine’s processing facilities).

Indonesian output is also expected to have risen by about 14% year-on-year due to a rise in output from the Grasberg mine.

Gold recycling increased 12% year-on-year to 351 tonnes in the March quarter 2024 — the strongest March quarter total in 10 years — largely due to record gold prices in China. Recycling activity outside of China was weaker than expected given the higher prices. This is possibly the result of high levels of recycling in recent years — which has limited the stocks of jewellery ready for recycling — or because consumers in nations with a high degree of economic or geopolitical uncertainty (such as Egypt, Iran and Türkiye) now prefer to hold onto their gold as a safe-haven asset.

World gold supply to peak in 2025 as new projects come online. World gold supply is forecast to rise on average by 1.6% a year from 2023, peaking at 5,090 tonnes in 2025. Increasing world gold mine production will be supported by further strength in recycling activity (Figure 10.3).
Resources and Energy Quarterly | June 2024




Have a very nice Friday.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[ducati916]

Mr Rule:

Gold Rush Rick Rule Interview | Stock Market TV

www.stockmarkettv.com

jog on
duc

 

[rcw1]

Gold rocks...

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Gold rocks...

View attachment 180007

Gold is certainly on a charge.

2400 achievable and then a new ath.

gg

 

[rcw1]

Gold is certainly on a charge.

2400 achievable and then a new ath.

gg

hello Garpal Gumnut
Hoping find you well. Breaking on through that magical $2300 barrier of joy, and sticking with numbers above this consistently set the bar to bigger and better things, for mine. Even though like most things it prices go up and they go down... much higher levels of consistent PoG levels is most gratifying. well really good, reckon.

Have a very nice weekend, bloke.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Green Candlesticks Everywhere
I like!

 

[Sean K]

Gold is certainly on a charge.

2400 achievable and then a new ath.

gg

Time to to take the RIH dart team up to Charters Towers with a gold detector and an ET.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The chart over the last month is very interesting. One can see support at 2300 and accumulation in the low 2300's probably by those allied with Central Banks consequent on the fundamental drivers from Gaza, Ukraine, the UK and Joe Biden's rapidly liquidising brain. There has been significant profit taking by funds before the10th, the15th, the 24th, and the the 27th of June, my Juneteenths.

The profit taking has stopped and those accumulating during this are now holding and Gold is on a roar possibly exceeding 2400 next week as buyers play catch up. Who knows what the future holds but Gold in the past has proven its power to provide and hold wealth in fractious times.

Thanks to Kitco.com for the excellent charts.

gg

 

[DaveTrade]

View attachment 180052


The chart over the last month is very interesting. One can see support at 2300 and accumulation in the low 2300's probably by those allied with Central Banks consequent on the fundamental drivers from Gaza, Ukraine, the UK and Joe Biden's rapidly liquidising brain. There has been significant profit taking by funds before the10th, the15th, the 24th, and the the 27th of June, my Juneteenths.

The profit taking has stopped and those accumulating during this are now holding and Gold is on a roar possibly exceeding 2400 next week as buyers play catch up. Who knows what the future holds but Gold in the past has proven its power to provide and hold wealth in fractious times.

Thanks to Kitco.com for the excellent charts.

gg

I've been in two minds about making this post, please don't listen to me DYOR. Gold and Silver are making a strong moves up right now but I can't help feeling that they may not break out to the upside of the sideways pattern yet, I feel that they haven't spent enough time moving sideways. If you got in at the bottom of the sideways pattern then you're already in profit and OK but entering now adds more risk. PLease do your own thing as this is one of those situations where I'm feeling a bit uncertain.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I've been in two minds about making this post, please don't listen to me DYOR. Gold and Silver are making a strong moves up right now but I can't help feeling that they may not break out to the upside of the sideways pattern yet, I feel that they haven't spent enough time moving sideways. If you got in at the bottom of the sideways pattern then you're already in profit and OK but entering now adds more risk. PLease do your own thing as this is one of those situations where I'm feeling a bit uncertain.

Thanks @DaveTrade

I just thought I'd put up a chart going back to the laate 1970's when I first started accumulating Gold. At that stage I paid $600 when the $AUD had parity with the $USD, and just hid it as it did not move significantly (and fell ). To put it in context I went with a mate to view a terraced house he eventually bought in Surry Hills for $32,000. My mate, if he had held on to it would have done much better than I, income and capital value wise.

So you are correct. Gold may fall as it did in Oct 2011 from $1900 to $1100. My guess is that we are in a Dec 06 situation where gold ran up to $1900 from $600 over 5 years. Not spectacular I agree. I guess it depends where you enter and if you are a short term trader or a long term holder and how you value Gold as a holding in your portfolio.

It is always good to have consolidation.

mmmmm. @DaveTrade . I'm not long relatively left in this world. You got me thinking. LOL.

gg