Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[finicky]

Would just like this red line to turn blue I think.

Is that a political comment?

 

[DannyB0000]

With Tariffs the Americans don't realise or have forgotten is that other countries will slap tariffs of their own on to American products, making inflation worse. It will probably give the US fed a headache trying to bring down inflation back to 2%.

Assuming Trump does win in November and another tariff war does start, I would avoid Gold stocks as the fed would have start to hike rates again.

 

[mullokintyre]

With Tariffs the Americans don't realise or have forgotten is that other countries will slap tariffs of their own on to American products, making inflation worse. It will probably give the US fed a headache trying to bring down inflation back to 2%.

Assuming Trump does win in November and another tariff war does start, I would avoid Gold stocks as the fed would have start to hike rates again.

The problem with that scenario is that it assumes that everyone will just keep buying US treasuries.
I am still wavering about this.
China has dumped about a quarter of its treasuries , mostly in favour of gold.


There are enough players willing to screw the Americans who will do likewise, and keep a support base on the gold price at least.
Mick
Edited to add a chart I messed.

 

[Sean K]

As we know, JPM have suppressed the price of gold for some time as they allow central banks from nefarious countries to accumulate gold to prepare for the next WW, when all their overseas assets are frozen by the Anglosphere and their allies.

So, when JPM are calling for a $2500 price next year, it's not going to tank in the mid term.

Gold price will average $2,500 per ounce in Q4 2024 as bull case remains intact despite sharp gains – JPMorgan​

 

[DannyB0000]

The last time Trump was in power China hit back tariffs of its own against US made products. The EU was preparing to hit back with tariffs of its own against US exports as well. Neither China or the EU were going to be bullied by the Americans.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

@DannyB0000 the Americans control information flow and intel worldwide and the latest US Government move against ASML and MSFT to prevent China from using AI chips will ensure that control continues. So, I believe that the US will continue to win against the Chinese even with Trump as President. Control of banking and commerce depends on control of the nodes of information of what is called the internet.

This tension between China and the US is good for Gold. There are two camps as to the result, the BRICS will replace the Petrodollar with a Gold-dollar or the $USD will continue to be the currency for the world's commerce, Eurodollar, Petrodollar etc.

I'd back the Americans. Should the BRICS win nobody knows the ramifications. I don't care all that much who wins. I'm just saying imo the Americans will.

All good for Gold anyways.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

The last time Trump was in power China hit back tariffs of its own against US made products. The EU was preparing to hit back with tariffs of its own against US exports as well. Neither China or the EU were going to be bullied by the Americans.

while i am against tariffs , i understand the potential upside in an uncompetitive nation ( the EU achieves to same goal using subsidies and quotas , which i also dislike )

the fact is another nation does an acceptable product at a very attractive price ( if it was a trash product hardly anyone would buy it )

do you buy the import , or protect the local economy , but just be honest about 'free trade'

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Gold has taken a bit of a hammering over the last 3 days. I just wonder whether it is profit taking or something more fundamental such as a central bank selling.

Time will tell. Thanks to kitco.com for the TradingView chart.

gg

 

[ducati916]

Mr GG,

The gold bull is safe and well:



The West is fast losing this war. The East is rising. As evidenced by the rise in gold.

You simply cannot hold Western debt. Gold is essentially a 0% perpetual bond. It has zero counter-party risk. Obviously people need to hold cash to pay bills, have a coffee etc. After that, what is not allocated to investments, needs to be allocated to gold.

I also hold silver. Silver is a trading holding, not in the same class or category as gold.



jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Mr GG,

The gold bull is safe and well:

View attachment 181123View attachment 181122View attachment 181121View attachment 181120View attachment 181119View attachment 181118

The West is fast losing this war. The East is rising. As evidenced by the rise in gold.

You simply cannot hold Western debt. Gold is essentially a 0% perpetual bond. It has zero counter-party risk. Obviously people need to hold cash to pay bills, have a coffee etc. After that, what is not allocated to investments, needs to be allocated to gold.

I also hold silver. Silver is a trading holding, not in the same class or category as gold.

View attachment 181125View attachment 181124

jog on
duc

Thanks Duc.

A very interesting post.

My only point of difference with you is that I believe the USA will eventually win, but in the meantime I will enjoy the fruits of the battle.

In fact the battle and resultant turmoil may be more advantageous for the POG than the result of the BRICS / USA war.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

Thanks Duc.

A very interesting post.

My only point of difference with you is that I believe the USA will eventually win, but in the meantime I will enjoy the fruits of the battle.

In fact the battle and resultant turmoil may be more advantageous for the POG than the result of the BRICS / USA war.

gg

i disagree , i see the US/UK/EU hegemony falling to the increasing population mass in Asia

all China needs to do is reverse the current population decline and BRICS partner India will do the heavy lifting , now IF Indonesia joins BRICS ( or the SCO ) that might be the game-changer , normally i would have thought that impossible , but since BRICS is admitting several Muslims nations , Indonesia might feel much more comfortable joining soon

after all many of the waning G7 nations are facing declining natural population growth AND are largely consumer-driven economies ( less fat wallets to create purchasing power )

i see a decoupling of the gold market , one side will be mainly paper contracts , while the other side will have real bullion locked in ( local ) vaults ( maybe even purchased directly from local mines like Russia , Brazil and South Africa could )

 

[ducati916]

Thanks Duc.

A very interesting post.

My only point of difference with you is that I believe the USA will eventually win, but in the meantime I will enjoy the fruits of the battle.

In fact the battle and resultant turmoil may be more advantageous for the POG than the result of the BRICS / USA war.

gg

Mr GG,



Full: https://www.govini.com/insights/num...n-u-s-production-capacity-and-deterring-china

The US has already lost, it just doesn't know that it's already dead.

Better to accept the loss and massively reshore. Yes that will be hugely inflationary, but it is the right way to go IMO. It will also require huge increases in energy requirements.

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Mr GG,

View attachment 181178View attachment 181177View attachment 181176View attachment 181175

Full: https://www.govini.com/insights/num...n-u-s-production-capacity-and-deterring-china

The US has already lost, it just doesn't know that it's already dead.

Better to accept the loss and massively reshore. Yes that will be hugely inflationary, but it is the right way to go IMO. It will also require huge increases in energy requirements.

jog on
duc

Thanks Duc and Divsie. @ducati916 @divs4ever

There are many arguments pro and con the USA continuing to control world commerce via the dollar $USD.

I am in the pro camp. I guess people need to read as much as they can if it interests them, keep an open mind and not be afraid to change their opinion. They then need to use that belief whichever way it goes in investing and life for that matter. It does require wide reading and no one scholar nor article/book will be definitive.

The only other factor on your side of the argument is the recent move in the USA for a gerontocracy to have the levers of power, Biden and Trump, both old white men living their lives as if it were the 20th Century. I'd put the ascent of people like JD Vance though as a counterargument to that and also allude to Putin and Xi as not exactly being spring chickens neither.

An interesting discussion and interesting times.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

Thanks Duc and Divsie. @ducati916 @divs4ever

There are many arguments pro and con the USA continuing to control world commerce via the dollar $USD.

I am in the pro camp. I guess people need to read as much as they can if it interests them, keep an open mind and not be afraid to change their opinion. They then need to use that belief whichever way it goes in investing and life for that matter. It does require wide reading and no one scholar nor article/book will be definitive.

The only other factor on your side of the argument is the recent move in the USA for a gerontocracy to have the levers of power, Biden and Trump, both old white men living their lives as if it were the 20th Century. I'd put the ascent of people like JD Vance though as a counterargument to that and also allude to Putin and Xi as not exactly being spring chickens neither.

An interesting discussion and interesting times.

gg

now it is an intriguing question on who 'controls' the Global economy , the City of London ( a city state in the UK ) thinks they have a fistful of leverage and so does a group of bankers based in Switzerland

i guess it depends on what you see as influential , whether 'might ' is a strong manufacturing ( and research ) base , or owning the debt of those who can't be fiscally responsible ,

a cynic might say that the US doesn't have as much sway as they brag they have ( especially when exposed to a staggering amount of debt liabilities )

 

[ducati916]

Thanks Duc and Divsie. @ducati916 @divs4ever

There are many arguments pro and con the USA continuing to control world commerce via the dollar $USD.

I am in the pro camp. I guess people need to read as much as they can if it interests them, keep an open mind and not be afraid to change their opinion. They then need to use that belief whichever way it goes in investing and life for that matter. It does require wide reading and no one scholar nor article/book will be definitive.

The only other factor on your side of the argument is the recent move in the USA for a gerontocracy to have the levers of power, Biden and Trump, both old white men living their lives as if it were the 20th Century. I'd put the ascent of people like JD Vance though as a counterargument to that and also allude to Putin and Xi as not exactly being spring chickens neither.

An interesting discussion and interesting times.

gg

I would agree that Sen. Vance is (a) knowledgable and (b) an up and comer. He is aware of the USD issue and has been for a while:

ICYMI: SENATOR VANCE QUESTIONS CHAIRMAN POWELL ON THE U.S. DOLLAR’S RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS - J.D. Vance

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Senator JD Vance (R-OH) questioned Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell on the role of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency during a hearing held by the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. “When I look at the American economy, we have a lot of...

www.vance.senate.gov

and



jog on
duc

 

[DrBourse]

Mon 22/7/24 @ 10.35am.....

And did you know that "Gold(Au) trades 24 hours a day on markets throughout the world using the code "XAU".

And anyone interested in (what seems to be) a comprehensive list of all GOLD Stocks on the ASX should look at this Market Index Link....

Gold Price & Charts - Market Index

Get the latest Gold price and charts (per ounce & gram). List of all ASX Gold companies. Download 50 years of Gold price history (USD & AUD).

www.marketindex.com.au

 

[mullokintyre]

Zero hedge recording big jump in net sales of US securities.
They see it going into bitcoin.
I would tend to disagree, I think it will continue to go into gold.
This story explains how the CCP have banned the cits from buying BTC, but there is big interest in the digital coin ETF's.
For it to be replacing the treasuries, the CCP central ban eould need to be buying the ETF's or the digi coins themselves.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

Zero hedge recording big jump in net sales of US securities.
They see it going into bitcoin.
I would tend to disagree, I think it will continue to go into gold.
This story explains how the CCP have banned the cits from buying BTC, but there is big interest in the digital coin ETF's.
For it to be replacing the treasuries, the CCP central ban eould need to be buying the ETF's or the digi coins themselves.
Mick
View attachment 181274

gold v. bitcoin

bitcoin for those who want capital gains ( as a lot of US traders/investors do

but ( physical ) gold for safety and an asset that will survive most disasters

but yes China gearing for at least a trade war ( more likely a sanctions war ) i can't blame China for thinking that

( would love to know how many of those dollars are going into physical gold , but maybe they are 'washing that cash ' through bitcoin and the bitcoin is being sold for a different asset .. say platinum or oil )

 

[ducati916]

Trump:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Trump, supported by Pence (aided and abetted by Yellen) will force the USD lower. Powell will be onboard soon enough.

A weak USD and low rates will force gold higher in addition to the force already being applied by BRICS.

Energy underpins all. Will the oil producers, OPEC+ accept anything other than gold as a settlement reserve asset?

jog on
duc

 

[finicky]