Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Investing in Gold

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noirua said:
Apologies for not responding to your posts and others. I have tried it again with VPN in several domains and without and it runs perfectly. It was posted while in Guernsey or Sark and works in the UK.

It should work if you click, 'watch on Youtube' which is on the screen.
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If it helps, link still did not work for me but i was able to search YouTube and get

Which i believe is the same, a couple of year old , video?
Thanks for your help/efforts
 
noirua said:
this happens some miners will see their profit margins rise from US$700 an ounce to over US$24,000 an ounce
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Haven't watched it yet but it might not do us any good if it does happen. The more so if a Labor government is in power. Still remember how Rudd and Swan came out swinging at a press conference declaring, "The Australian people want their fair share" via a resources super profits tax.
 
Yesterday's heroes. Peter Costello's sum benefit to the Australian nation would have to be a huge negative taking into consideration this act in 1997. I hope it haunts him, his net worth to Australia is literally negative. He had some advisory help though in Treasury and the RBA . I guess it made him look good in the short term as he delivered his budget. Thoroughly modern. Fkg intellectuals can get it so wrong.

In November 1997 the then Treasurer, Peter Costello, shocked some people when he announced he'd signed off on the sale of $2 billion worth of Australian bullion. On the day he announced the sale the price was around $US306.00 an ounce. At the time, according to Mr Costello, gold "no longer plays a significant role in the international financial system".

Three days after the bullion was sold Australian gold shares slumped 16 per cent. With gold languishing there were more than a few people within government and the Reserve Bank congratulating themselves on such a prescient sell off.

But no-one else seemed to be selling, certainly not the US, and Robert Champion de Crespigny at the time expressed concern about Australia's ambitious move. The then executive chairman of Normandy Mining, Australia's largest gold mining group said:

"I think the Reserve bank has handled this extremely clumsily". Gold, he said, had a future if you took a long term view.

So here it was 1997 and Australia had sold two thirds of its gold assets in a single day, and sold into a buyer's market.

While the sale helped pay down debts, the deal was to cost Australia billions of dollars in the long run. But at the time people were lining up to congratulate the Treasurer.

Bill Shields who was with the Reserve Bank and who went on to become Macquarie Bank's chief economist seemed to echo the Federal Treasurer's words. He said he thought the gold price would remain under pressure and depending on how supply responded it could fall lower.

Gold, he said "no longer has a role in the monetary system and with low inflation it is an unattractive investment relative to interest bearing securities and equities".

While that sentiment was certainly shared in the plush offices of bankers in Australia, it wasn't on the minds of China's money men.

Two years after Australia's Government sold off two thirds of the nation's bullion, China made a startling admission. Over six years it had quietly bought 454 tonnes of gold (presumably some of it was Australia's)."

www.abc.net.au

Worth its weight in gold

It wasn't that long ago gold was on the nose, especially in Australia, but now, everyone wants it.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
finicky said:
Yesterday's heroes. Peter Costello's sum benefit to the Australian nation would have to be a huge negative taking into consideration this act in 1997. I hope it haunts him, his net worth to Australia is literally negative. He had some advisory help though in Treasury and the RBA . I guess it made him look good in the short term as he delivered his budget. Thoroughly modern. Fkg intellectuals can get it so wrong.

In November 1997 the then Treasurer, Peter Costello, shocked some people when he announced he'd signed off on the sale of $2 billion worth of Australian bullion. On the day he announced the sale the price was around $US306.00 an ounce. At the time, according to Mr Costello, gold "no longer plays a significant role in the international financial system".

Three days after the bullion was sold Australian gold shares slumped 16 per cent. With gold languishing there were more than a few people within government and the Reserve Bank congratulating themselves on such a prescient sell off.

But no-one else seemed to be selling, certainly not the US, and Robert Champion de Crespigny at the time expressed concern about Australia's ambitious move. The then executive chairman of Normandy Mining, Australia's largest gold mining group said:

"I think the Reserve bank has handled this extremely clumsily". Gold, he said, had a future if you took a long term view.

So here it was 1997 and Australia had sold two thirds of its gold assets in a single day, and sold into a buyer's market.

While the sale helped pay down debts, the deal was to cost Australia billions of dollars in the long run. But at the time people were lining up to congratulate the Treasurer.

Bill Shields who was with the Reserve Bank and who went on to become Macquarie Bank's chief economist seemed to echo the Federal Treasurer's words. He said he thought the gold price would remain under pressure and depending on how supply responded it could fall lower.

Gold, he said "no longer has a role in the monetary system and with low inflation it is an unattractive investment relative to interest bearing securities and equities".

While that sentiment was certainly shared in the plush offices of bankers in Australia, it wasn't on the minds of China's money men.

Two years after Australia's Government sold off two thirds of the nation's bullion, China made a startling admission. Over six years it had quietly bought 454 tonnes of gold (presumably some of it was Australia's)."

www.abc.net.au

Worth its weight in gold

It wasn't that long ago gold was on the nose, especially in Australia, but now, everyone wants it.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
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All good he sunk it all in Telstra so it worked out well
 
Really? I must check that out. I thought he reduced the debt. Anyway Telstra wasn't worth all that gold. I don't care if he built cancer wards for children with it.
 

‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry made a multimillion-dollar bet on gold and dumped tech giants Alphabet and Amazon — here's how to add the precious metal to your portfolio​

July 16, 2024,
According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Burry’s company Scion Asset Management has made quite a few adjustments to its portfolio in Q1 of 2024.

Among Burry’s notable moves were selling his stakes in Amazon and Alphabet and increasing his holdings of Chinese companies JD.com and Alibaba.

Burry also made a substantial bet on gold by purchasing 440,729 shares of Sprott Physical Gold Trust, valued at $7.6 million at the end of Q1, making it the fifth-largest position in his portfolio. The closed-end fund's official website says it holds “substantially all of its assets in physical gold bullion.”

Sprott Physical Gold Trust: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/PHYS
Sprott Physical Gold Trust (the Trust) is a closed-end mutual fund trust. The Trust was created to invest and hold substantially all of its assets in physical gold bullion.
The Trust's investment objective is to provide exchange-traded investment alternative for investors interested in holding physical gold bullion without the inconvenience that is typical of a direct investment in physical gold bullion.
The Trust invests primarily in long-term holdings of unencumbered, fully allocated, physical gold bullion and does not speculate with regard to short-term changes in gold prices.
The Trust is authorized to issue an unlimited number of redeemable, transferrable trust units (the Units). Sprott Asset Management LP is the manager of the Trust.Less
 
noirua said:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-bubble-close-to-bursting-mark-spitznagel-black-swan-2024-7
Jul 19, 2024
"Mark Spitznagel, a bearish investor, predicts stocks may soon lose over half their value in a sell-off.
He says a recession could happen by the end of the year, fueled by the US Government's $34 trillion debt."
Click to expand...
Spitznagel is quite in the news and financial commentary atm. His modus operandi is to take many, many small bearish losses waiting for the one options mis-pricing in a bull market and a big bear bet. Well worth a duckduckgo.

He is bearish always. And as he has proven he only needs to be right once every 5-10 years or less.

gg
 
noirua said:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-bubble-close-to-bursting-mark-spitznagel-black-swan-2024-7
Jul 19, 2024
"Mark Spitznagel, a bearish investor, predicts stocks may soon lose over half their value in a sell-off.
He says a recession could happen by the end of the year, fueled by the US Government's $34 trillion debt."
Click to expand...

well the market has been ripe for a full-blooded downturn ( not a retrace with 100 discrete bail-outs that we got in 2020/2021) since the second half of 2019

so a 'black swan' ( eventually ) is obvious , however which black swan will it be the global economy is looking like a lake in Western Australia ( where black swans are not that rare )

guessing the correct black swan could be a BIG winner , it could be a bigger sanctions/tariff war , commercial real estate , another Japan crisis , just a general cascade of distressed banks , a HUGE war , , etc etc etc

i think the opportunists among us are going to be really busy looking for hints on which way the chips will fall
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Spitznagel is quite in the news and financial commentary atm. His modus operandi is to take many, many small bearish losses waiting for the one options mis-pricing in a bull market and a big bear bet. Well worth a duckduckgo.

He is bearish always. And as he has proven he only needs to be right once every 5-10 years or less.

gg
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once a decade with the right amount of profits ( to cancel all the wrong bets ) is all you need

that used to work on the race-tracks as well one in eight winners but the odds often better than 15/1 ( as long as you understand the strategy you are playing )
 
Brian Chu of fat tail claiming these two commodities set to soar. Caveat is that he's a gold stocks subscriber service. Charts from Jan 2021 indicating outperformance of gold and silver against bloombergs commodities index.

Screenshot_20240925_144040_Chrome.jpg
 
This doesn't pertain to only gold stocks, but probably the best place for it.
I saw the below slide on a Resource Talks vid, quite the eye opener for the unsuspecting.

The start date was probably cherry picked, it would have picked up most the falls in Li, Ni and U, but should have picked up gold and silver rising.

He tabled all the junior miners/explorers off the ASX, TSX, AIM, US, a total of 2249 stocks.

The total winners for the period was 256 out of 2249, easily outnumbered by the 314 that lost 90%+.

This is what you are up against in the junior space, 11.4% winners v 88.6% losers.


1731295851955.png

There was another couple of interesting slides but can't spot them atm.

Link if interested.

 
Value Collector said:
An item doesn't have to grow to compound, it just has to throw off income that can be used to buy more of that item.

For example, if you owned a piece of land that you leased, you would get all the inflation protection you would get from owning a similar value of gold, however every year it throws off some income you can reinvest to grow your land holding.

So after 20 years you own not just the original piece of land, your total land holdings have probably doubled, essentially you owned an ounce of gold that turned into 2 ounces.

There is a reason the Royal family owns land and other assets in their estates that support them noble gold skool review, if they just owned gold they would have been broke centuries ago.
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You're right. The key to growing wealth over time isn’t just relying on the appreciation of an asset, but also on the income it generates. In the case of land, by leasing it, you earn rental income, which can be reinvested to purchase more land. This creates a compounding effect, not just from the land’s value increasing, but also from the income it generates. Gold, on the other hand, doesn’t produce income directly unless it's part of a gold-backed investment or used productively. While gold can protect against inflation, it doesn’t inherently generate cash flow. This is why many wealthy individuals, including the Royal family, diversify their holdings with income-producing assets like land, businesses, and real estate, rather than relying solely on gold. By combining assets that grow in value and generate income, they ensure long-term financial sustainability.
 
Plenty of commentators on gold on youtube and I try to refrain from reproducing them. This is one of my favourites from a long time ago. He uploads under 'belangp' if you want to check out his thoughtful channel. He takes a long term view on gold. First short vid is from 6-7 years back seeing over US$6,000 at that time as a destination. Second one is from 5 months back warning to be prepared for a significant pullback before a resumption of the bull (I just skipped to the end of that one so think that's what he's saying. Will watch the whole thing later)



 
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