Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[rcw1]

quGood afternoon
Gold continues to impress, improving on the threshold of value overall and bouncing into zones that will be become second nature before too long.
No sell by rcw1. Yellow (physical) is gold

Go Queensland women in SoO 1 tonight. The place is abounded in maroon... XXXX on the menu.


View attachment 176966

Just in case you are not aware that gold is good... Wrap ya mellon round this little beauty !!!

 

[BossMan.]

Wonder what there May imports will show

Bloomberg: China’s Gold Imports Slow as Record Prices Temper Demand

 

[mullokintyre]

Wonder what there May imports will show

Bloomberg: China’s Gold Imports Slow as Record Prices Temper Demand

View attachment 177349

Looking at that chart above, I would takea slightly different approach.
Using the last 12 months as a guide, last months figures were still higher than the corresponding MOM, still highr than June, July October and December, so puts it in the median range.
I would not be concerned unless the next two months follow suit.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

From Ed Steers newsletter
"Don't forget that the short positions held by the Big 4/8 commercial traders were at extreme levels up until Tuesday -- and in total, all the shorts were in the hole to the tune of around $20 billion according to Ted...so it was either get overrun, or resort to the usual 'some old, same old' engineered sell-off that we've had to endure so many times in the past. How successful they are this time around, remains to be seen.



I also noted that we're coming up on the next scheduled delivery month in gold, which is June -- and I'm sure that 'da boyz' will want as many options as possible to expire out-of-the-money before then. So using the past as prologue here, suggests that this current engineered price decline series could last until First Notice Day next Thursday."


So would not be buying back in the bounce till after the end of the month.
Hope they beat it down a lot, there will be buying opportunities then.
Mick

 

[ducati916]

Wonder what there May imports will show

Bloomberg: China’s Gold Imports Slow as Record Prices Temper Demand

View attachment 177349

Conflicting (information) data:



Difficulty is that the Chinese do not advertise exactly what/how much they are buying.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

An interesting read:



Full: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-17/transcript-carlyle-s-jeff-currie-on-copper-trade

Once you have read the article, it becomes clear that the pressure release valve for non USD commodity pricing and net settlement is gold.

Looking at gold and the oil market:



Oil is x15 larger than gold. The POG has to rise. Which it will. There is nothing clearer than the BRICS are moving away from USD and UST to their own currencies (that they can print) with net settlement in gold.

jog on
duc

 

[greggles]

The Biden administration's weaponisation of the US dollar has changed the face of international relations forever. A line in the sand has been drawn and the move away from the US dollar is just beginning. It's a change of such significance that I don't believe the market has even caught on yet, but the early movers are taking large positions, ready for the moment when the market does eventually catch on.

If you can't beat the USA on the battlefield then trash their currency. Economic war is far more effective than conventional war.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The Biden administration's weaponisation of the US dollar has changed the face of international relations forever. A line in the sand has been drawn and the move away from the US dollar is just beginning. It's a change of such significance that I don't believe the market has even caught on yet, but the early movers are taking large positions, ready for the moment when the market does eventually catch on.

If you can't beat the USA on the battlefield then trash their currency. Economic war is far more effective than conventional war.

A very good point @greggles . The USA however is presently, and looking to the near future, so far ahead of the rest of the world in its control of the economic war that it is difficult to see the BRICS for example ever catching up. Communication, so necessary for commerce routes through the US or nodes controlled by the US which leads to control over banks, money and investment flow. AI will only magnify the gap.

As long as the USA remains democratic and an ally of Australia I believe all Australians should be in favour of this.

As for Gold, its value so far is not dependant on non-USA entities. Knowing its resilence it may be affected from time to time by hoarding without devaluation. One only hoards Gold in plenty. Whoever is out there ahead of the rest will continue to highly value Gold.

gg

 

[BossMan.]

The USA is also ~2 years ahead of the east in regards to AI and Chip development according to key figures in Silicon Valley (China doesn't have the chip technology and will continue to be bottlenecked by this...)

 

[ducati916]

It’s not the dollar that normally backs the international monetary system, it’s gold. Gold used to make up the majority of international reserves, even when sterling was said to be the world reserve currency before the dollar.




The move to the USD was backed by US military and the end of the Cold War I.

Cold War II is well under way and the US has been weighed, measured and found wanting. The result is a waning in USD and a return to gold.

jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

The USA is also ~2 years ahead of the east in regards to AI and Chip development according to key figures in Silicon Valley (China doesn't have the chip technology and will continue to be bottlenecked by this...)

not for long , China is making it's own chips and they are not copies of US/Taiwanese chips ,

so the question is will the Chinese chips to things more efficiently

 

[DaveTrade]

not for long , China is making it's own chips and they are not copies of US/Taiwanese chips ,

so the question is will the Chinese chips to things more efficiently

My guess is that the Chinese chips won't be as 'High Tech'. The two issues would be (1) the technical knowledge, they may have this, (2) the technology required to manufacture the super high tech chips. So far the world source of these super high tech chips has been Taiwan but the US has been transferring the manufacture of these high tech chips onto US soil, not sure how far along that they are in this process.

 

[divs4ever]

having played around with older chips some of them are very good at certain tasks , for instance the Cyrix chips were very good at number processing ( and staying cool while doing so )

so it depends on what China wants it's chips to do , and how it is done , some Western chips demand extensive cooling ( and power consumption ) whereas the Chinese were focusing on efficient inter-connectivity

June 2024 | TOP500

www.top500.org

and don't ignore Japan either , they have been developing their own stuff as well

 

[DaveTrade]

having played around with older chips some of them are very good at certain tasks , for instance the Cyrix chips were very good at number processing ( and staying cool while doing so )

so it depends on what China wants it's chips to do , and how it is done , some Western chips demand extensive cooling ( and power consumption ) whereas the Chinese were focusing on efficient inter-connectivity

June 2024 | TOP500

www.top500.org

and don't ignore Japan either , they have been developing their own stuff as well

The high tech chips that currently you can only get from Taiwan are needed for advanced military and AI applications. Whoever wins the tech race will rule the world, at present the US are in front.

 

[finicky]

not for long , China is making it's own chips and they are not copies of US/Taiwanese chips. So the question is, will the Chinese chips to things more efficiently?

Modern Commie China has never produced anything that is not a copy. This is because the Commie brain is enslaved. Whenever a Chinese brain pops to the surface with a fresh idea it is smashed by the state apparatus, e.g Jack Ma, who bucked at CCP schools and of whom it's said:

"In 1980, while he was riding his bike to practice English with tourists, he met Ken Morley, who was traveling with his family with the Australia-China Friendship Society. Ken's son, David, became pen pals with Ma and kept in touch after the family left China. Years later, the Morleys hosted Ma in Australia, changing the course of his life completely. Ma later said: "Those 29 days in Newcastle were crucial in my life. Without those 29 days, I would never have been able to think the way I do today."

China doesn't have the chip technology

I don't understand why they haven't already stolen it, like they have everything else.

 

[rcw1]

Good afternoon

UBS has significantly upgraded its gold forecasts, predicting macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical risks and increased allocations will lift gold to $US2800 ($4000) an ounce over the next two years.

The broker lifted its projections for 2025, 2026 and 2027 by 21 per cent, 34 per cent and 30 per cent respectively to $US2700, $US2775 and $US2600 an ounce.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It is my belief that Gold is heading much lower. The Chinese cousins have stopped buying Gold via their Central Bank and the Indian and Chinese retail sector will not reawaken until a month or so before Dewali on which I've posted above.

So a retracement is on the cards but to where? Fortunately the charts assist and although TA is not a predictive tool it does provide some idea where on past behaviour support is likely to be. I have used a chart of PMGOLD, one of our local Aussie Gold ETF's
as a proxy for the POG. To convert as close as one can, multiply the PMGOLD price by 200 and divide by 3 for the price in $USD.





Gold has consolidated in a channel since it gapped up in early April and is just at the bottom of the upper channel. Further Price also has the semblance of a descending triangle during this time with the majority volume being on down moves. So, my guess is it is going lower.

I have subtracted the height of the upper channel and drawn a channel equidistant below it, which is my buy back in area at approx $AUD 31.31. The RSI looks as if momentum is heading towards oversold. My buy back in area has been previous resistance.

I will not however be a seller as I have a crook back and couldn't be bothered digging any back up again, and I am overall bullish on Gold in any case. I might ask @DrBourse to check my lines as I only have a Diploma and not a Doctorate in Technical Analysis.

I like Gold.

gg

 

[Sean K]

It is my belief that Gold is heading much lower. The Chinese cousins have stopped buying Gold via their Central Bank and the Indian and Chinese retail sector will not reawaken until a month or so before Dewali on which I've posted above.

So a retracement is on the cards but to where? Fortunately the charts assist and although TA is not a predictive tool it does provide some idea where on past behaviour support is likely to be. I have used a chart of PMGOLD, one of our local Aussie Gold ETF's
as a proxy for the POG. To convert as close as one can, multiply the PMGOLD price by 200 and divide by 3 for the price in $USD.



View attachment 178507

Gold has consolidated in a channel since it gapped up in early April and is just at the bottom of the upper channel. Further Price also has the semblance of a descending triangle during this time with the majority volume being on down moves. So, my guess is it is going lower.

I have subtracted the height of the upper channel and drawn a channel equidistant below it, which is my buy back in area at approx $AUD 31.31. The RSI looks as if momentum is heading towards oversold. My buy back in area has been previous resistance.

I will not however be a seller as I have a crook back and couldn't be bothered digging any back up again, and I am overall bullish on Gold in any case. I might ask @DrBourse to check my lines as I only have a Diploma and not a Doctorate in Technical Analysis.

I like Gold.

gg

A slightly different 5 year weekly view on PMGOLD and GLD. Not sure which line on PMGOLD equates to the GLD one. Maybe the $31.00. Hard to tell with the FX influence.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

A slightly different 5 year weekly view on PMGOLD and GLD. Not sure which line on PMGOLD equates to the GLD one. Maybe the $31.00. Hard to tell with the FX influence.

View attachment 178511

Thanks @Sean K . The upper blue line on your first chart is my buy back price and the lower blue line in the first chart is equivalent to $USD1800 level. All important support/resistance levels in the past and possibly in the future.

As often as not, I'll sacrifice a few points on the buy or sell just to get set or get rid, as you're looking at a 10% gain if you're trading minimum and if a holder more. I now stick to PMGOLD for charting as $AUD has been fairly constant for quick calculation at $USD 0.66 or x2 /3 recently.

This may impact Gold stocks as well, unfortunately, should it pan out as I've suggested. Interestingly the etymology of the expression "pan out" is from Gold mining.

gg

 

[DrBourse]

Hi gg….

Congrats gg, your “lines” are pretty good M8….

The following is my explanation & interpretation of the PM Gold Cht Support & Resistance Lines….
However, B4 I get to that, I should point out the Old Rule of “Sup & Res Lines touching 2 points” is really Old Hat Stuff….

Most analysts suggest that Sup & Res Lines “must touch at least 5 points” to be credible….
The attached page 35 gives a basic explanation….




There are numerous Minor Lines that could be used, but the Best 2 Major & 2 Minor Lines are shown on the chart below….


That Line you had @ $37.79 does not exist in the true sense of a Supp/Res Line….
As you will note the Accompanying Indicators suggest further Downtrend....

Another couple of years and you will be a “Wiz @ TA”….

Cheers M8....