Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[moXJO]

Is there much effect from the Ugandan gold deposit?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Is there much effect from the Ugandan gold deposit?

I don't believe so, although on the face of it it should. The Ugandan deposit is estimated at $USD 12tn. China a few days ago announced a find of $USD 83b assayed which they estimate would last demand for only 1.4 years in China. So I will use China demand and those figures as a reference point.

So just using fingers with some rounding to estimate, the Ugandan find if verified and mined would supply Chinese demand for 200 years. This is not world demand but it is still huge.

On the other side of the argument is Uganda which is an absolute shithole with an average earnings number for the unfortunate inhabitants of $800 a year. It is rife with corruption and tribal discord. They tossed out all their Indian inhabitants about 50 years ago who made the joint run and it relies on the usual suspects, World Bank, UNESCO and other asshiners to keep the show going. The Chinese are assisting with their Gold industry which is very kind of them and about the only positive which shows how bright the Ugandans are.

In addition between 20,000 and 40,000 poor souls are engaged in illegal mining of gold and are treated horribly when caught. The rich get richer and the poor poorer. There will be civil disturbance there for years, accelerating if the gold actually exists.

The Ugandan "find" is by aerial survey only and nobody has gotten off their butt to begin to survey and confirm by drilling, assays etc. So were the possie in the US, China or even India I would imagine it could have an effect. Even if it would supply China demand for 200 years it will take the Ugandans that number of years to actually get it in to bar, most of it will go to the Chinese, local Chieftains, Ju-Ju men and urchins.

gg

 

[ducati916]

1. I find it puzzling, and perhaps indicative of bias, that you would respond to my question of 'how might this affect things?' with 'I disagree'. That's not a valid answer to a question about how much of something does or will exist.

2. As for what you said, I agree with some of it but not all.

3. Yes, I agree that the USD is going to lose its place as the reserve currency and it'll largely be replaced with gold (exactly how this plays out and in what timeframe is uncertain). It was always quite bizarre for the USD to be the reserve currency when one individual country could sit there printing more of it, etc etc.

4. But, this has always been the case and was not an answer to my question.

5. As for your assertion that multiple hot wars have a negligible impact on the price of gold, and only impact it by adding to American debt, I can not agree. I think we all understand that multiple major global conflicts cause fear and a rush to safe havens such as gold, just to name one impact it has. How much, was my question, and I disagree with your assertion of zero/negligible.

1. I disagree.

Why?



Beacuse the WAR that matters is not the hot war in Ukraine or the ME: it is the war that China and BRICS are waging against the UST and USD markets.

Gold is responding to that war. And because gold is rising, the West is losing. The West is also losing the hot war. This is almost certainly not being factored into the gold price currently. If it were, it would I suspect add premium.

So now we can jump to:



5. While Trump may have the desire, how much actual ability does he have?

Your position would seem to be that if the hot wars ended due to Trump negotiating a conclusion, that a premium would come out of gold.



My position is that the war to worry about is the financial war, not the hot war in Ukraine or ME.

The financial war is intensifying not abating. The forces that are propelling gold higher are spreading from the BRICS to Europe as European banks are now starting to replace UST with gold.

The catalyst that put a premium into gold when the Russians invaded the Ukraine was not the Russians invading but the US confiscating Russian owned US assets.

About this, Trump can do nothing. In fact, rather than de-escalating the confrontation with China, he is, if he follows through on his election promises, will escalate the war with China via tariffs. This will be inflationary for the US and deflationary for China. Paradoxically it will likely send the USD higher (when Trump has stated he wants it (needs it) lower) as less USD will be emitted to Eurodollar users, thus likely pushing US 10yr rates higher as foreign holders of US assets (remember the US runs a (-67% NIIP) sell US assets to obtain USD.

Then we look at another Trump strategem: utilising BTC as a Treasury Reserve asset, to be financed through a revaluation of US gold. This is first and foremost a strategy to find another sucker with enough spare balance sheet capacity to purchase UST paper as the deficits continue to blow out. That is Tether. Tether is currently the 16'th largest holder of UST globally. That if Trump gets his way will increase. But as far as gold is concerned that bumps it to $4000oz. Why is JPM now custodian of GLD's gold?

So while you chose to misquote me, I didn't state, I implied, that there is a minimal hot war premium in gold, correct, the hot war premium is minimal to zero.

jog on
duc

 

[Sdajii]

View attachment 188716

1. I disagree.

Why?

View attachment 188725View attachment 188724View attachment 188723View attachment 188722View attachment 188721View attachment 188720View attachment 188719View attachment 188718View attachment 188717

Beacuse the WAR that matters is not the hot war in Ukraine or the ME: it is the war that China and BRICS are waging against the UST and USD markets.

Gold is responding to that war. And because gold is rising, the West is losing. The West is also losing the hot war. This is almost certainly not being factored into the gold price currently. If it were, it would I suspect add premium.

So now we can jump to:

View attachment 188715

5. While Trump may have the desire, how much actual ability does he have?

Your position would seem to be that if the hot wars ended due to Trump negotiating a conclusion, that a premium would come out of gold.

View attachment 188726

My position is that the war to worry about is the financial war, not the hot war in Ukraine or ME.

The financial war is intensifying not abating. The forces that are propelling gold higher are spreading from the BRICS to Europe as European banks are now starting to replace UST with gold.

The catalyst that put a premium into gold when the Russians invaded the Ukraine was not the Russians invading but the US confiscating Russian owned US assets.

About this, Trump can do nothing. In fact, rather than de-escalating the confrontation with China, he is, if he follows through on his election promises, will escalate the war with China via tariffs. This will be inflationary for the US and deflationary for China. Paradoxically it will likely send the USD higher (when Trump has stated he wants it (needs it) lower) as less USD will be emitted to Eurodollar users, thus likely pushing US 10yr rates higher as foreign holders of US assets (remember the US runs a (-67% NIIP) sell US assets to obtain USD.

Then we look at another Trump strategem: utilising BTC as a Treasury Reserve asset, to be financed through a revaluation of US gold. This is first and foremost a strategy to find another sucker with enough spare balance sheet capacity to purchase UST paper as the deficits continue to blow out. That is Tether. Tether is currently the 16'th largest holder of UST globally. That if Trump gets his way will increase. But as far as gold is concerned that bumps it to $4000oz. Why is JPM now custodian of GLD's gold?

So while you chose to misquote me, I didn't state, I implied, that there is a minimal hot war premium in gold, correct, the hot war premium is minimal to zero.

jog on
duc

I wasn't misquoting you, and you confirmed what I said, that you think the hot war premium is negligible or zero. I disagree with that. Whatever else is going on, hot wars do impact the price of gold, even if that's not the largest impact, and I wasn't claiming or implying it was, just speculating on how much. You say zero or near enough. I think it's significantly more than zero, and likely enough to drop gold prices at least a little, temporarily. At the very least, the announcement of the Russia-Ukraine war will drop gold prices that day, whenever it happens. With so many issues impacting the POG, it's often difficult to single out the impact of any one thing.

Most of your post was trying to convince me of what I already agree with. Yes, everything you say about the financial war is significant and yes, the West is losing, and yes, in the big picture the POG will rise. I've made my position on that abundantly clear over the last six months or so in this thread, no need to try to convince me.

How much ability Trump has to end conflicts is debatable, you clearly think it's very low, but 8 years ago that was the same story everyone was telling and yet he did indeed very quickly do a brilliant job, surprising even most of his fans who had big expectations. The media of course played it down heavily and instead of saying 'Wow, he ended that war in the Middle East we told you he couldn't possibly end' they said 'He tweets mean things and here's a woman we totally didn't pay to claim he raped her 173 years ago' and instead of saying 'Wow, Trump actually made things with North Korea lovely, turning Rocket Man around from threatening to nuke everyone and we were telling you that Trump was going to escalate that and cause and nuclear war, now we're all happy, how amazing' they said 'Trump is a monster because he is having open discussion with the leader of a rogue state and we're yelling you to be outraged about that', and similar for other issues around the world. If he has similar results this time to last time, major international conflicts will end in the first half of 2025. Last time everyone said it was impossible and I was highly sceptical, then surprised at the success.

Of course, there's no guarantee he'll be as successful this time as last time, no guarantee he can do what he claims he will, but he did it last time and it's likely he can again, and of course I hope he can end as much conflict as possible.

 

[Sean K]

Gold's U.S. market share to quadruple? What happens to gold price when that happens – Rick Rule​

(Kitco News) - The only way for the U.S. to escape its current debt crisis is to inflate away the value of its obligations, much like what happened in the 1970s, said Rick Rule, veteran investor and President & CEO of Rule Investment Media. This dynamic creates a bullish case for commodities like precious metals, uranium, and copper, with energy also poised to benefit under the new presidential administration.

According to Rule, the U.S. will ultimately honor its debt obligations in nominal terms but will allow inflation to erode their real value, as it did during the 1970s.

"We faced the same circumstance, although less dire, in the 1970s," Rule told Kitco News anchor Jeremy Szafron on the sidelines of the New Orleans Investment Conference. "We will honor the nominal amount of our obligations, but we'll inflate away the net present value of the obligations."

 

[Student of Gann]

Gold update​

Did not like the way Gold is sitting at the moment in the middle of that range bar so I went back and rechecked the calculations . Usually when a Cycle expires it will be followed by space expansion and heavy vol which has not been the case today with price holding steady.

After going back over the Notes in relation to the current position of the market I would be wary of shorts now and it may be wise to take any short positions off the table. It looks like we are in a position to move higher especially if we take out Nov 29th 2690 which looks likely to occur so I have drawn up a new Curve which I wanted to put out in time for tonight.

It looks like we could be up till Dec 9th where Top is indicated so if you reverse to the long side and we move up into this point it would be prudent to take profits so we will assess how price moves into this point over the coming days and I will work out some price targets if the upside move gets underway. That would be the first section we are looking at trading. From there we could be lower into Dec 17th where counter trend Low is indicated . There are still more points and price targets to be calculated but its important I release this asap.
studentofgann twitter

Regards Grant