Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Uncle Festivus]

Could it be just the beginning of the transfer of wealth from 'old' economies to the new? A lot of these gold sales by CB's are going towards paying off debt, obviously, while the buyers in the new economies eg China, India & Russia are only too happy to oblige & buy all they can get their hands on, as shown by how well the dips are supported by strong physical demand from these places, as well as middle east oil kingdoms.
Oil is ready to break to the upside, which means more petro dollars coming golds way again maybe, and diversifying out of $US into 'other' currencies, including gold.
Throw away the charts, stick with the fundamentals?

 

[bean]

US Markets bears are in control. and well if price of Gold to drop 20%
I reckon US Markets will drop ??%
And the next few days if the US Markets drop expect the % of drop to be increasing

Not any more there not Bean there was a obvious line of support drawn by the bulls and I am in.

Like I thought US rose again last night. I see a retrace coming and that will confirm this new break out or retest support, In my view the bulls are just about back in command.

Gold has had the US$ to deal with but still hanging in there Magdoran was very right in his call of zig zag movement which is what its doing.

WELL DONE Mag!


right now I can't be bearish or bullish on Gold it's a real patience required!

the only other outside force starting to brew is Black Gold looking more and more bullish which is good and bad I spose![/QUOTE]


Yes, bulls may be just about back in command S&P 500 1522 resistence 1530 will that be top of a right shoulder. also longer charts nice double top 2000 and 2007?
China is it forming a doulbe top?
Gold clinging to US$650 but its still going US$ 540 when?
(sooner rather than later)

http://http://www.financialsense.com/market/daily/tuesday.htm

 

[Magdoran]

Yes, bulls may be just about back in command S&P 500 1522 resistence 1530 will that be top of a right shoulder. also longer charts nice double top 2000 and 2007?
China is it forming a doulbe top?
Gold clinging to US$650 but its still going US$ 540 when?
(sooner rather than later)

http://http://www.financialsense.com/market/daily/tuesday.htm

Hello Bean,


Since you mentioned it, are you still bearish on the US markets currently as you have forecast many times? Please post exact dates and price levels for the S&P 500 as attached.

It would be interesting for you to also give the exact date of the $540 low for Gold that you are forecasting please, since it is of little use to mention a price level without putting it in a time context. In the markets, timing is everything.


Regards


Magdoran

 

[Kauri]

Gold for mine is, by my count, a tad messy currently. Could be sub-dividing down again but the last tentative abc W2 correction seems out of proportion, so although momentum is picking up I am on the sidelines until the picture becomes clearer to me. Plenty of cleaner more obvious trades out there.

 

[GreatPig]

One must also remember that this gold chart is in US$. The A$ version doesn't look quite the same. Specifically, where there's a similar peak in April to the one in February on the US$ chart, the April one was much lower on the A$ chart.

Cheers,
GP

 

[Kauri]

One must also remember that this gold chart is in US$. The A$ version doesn't look quite the same. Specifically, where there's a similar peak in April to the one in February on the US$ chart, the April one was much lower on the A$ chart.

Cheers,
GP

GP,
Good point... The chart I use is a 24Hr traded MM type spot, which is different to the daily traded futures contract and the ETF versions. Hence the general lack of gaps in my charts.
Cheers
Kauri

 

[bean]

Hello Bean,


Since you mentioned it, are you still bearish on the US markets currently as you have forecast many times? Please post exact dates and price levels for the S&P 500 as attached.

It would be interesting for you to also give the exact date of the $540 low for Gold that you are forecasting please, since it is of little use to mention a price level without putting it in a time context. In the markets, timing is everything.


Regards


Magdoran

The $540 low in Gold is dependent on when the markets tank.
Will have more idea on the timing then. within 2-4weeks of falling.
What I do know is the US Gold indexes that I used are not on buy signals. In a bull stock market and gold indexes have been rising nearly as many days as the S&P 500 yet are at a lower price than 21st March when the advance started in US stocks 15.48 - 138.7 - 341.83
There readings on friday USERX HUI XAU 15.21 -140.77 - 336.27
And Gold from US 690 to US 650
Where is the Bullish there. I have been completely right being a bear.

The US stock Market Indexes are again oversold so if we get a rise monday then more than likely fall tuesday and wednesday.
If Gold and US gold Indexes 'rise monday' then down and testing 650 again

 

[bean]

The US stock Market Indexes are again oversold so if we get a rise monday then more than likely fall tuesday and wednesday.
If Gold and US gold Indexes 'rise monday' then down and testing 650 again

Well I used the word "IF" a few times in the quote because the US markets are "OVERBOUGHT" not "oversold"
So any rise the next few days could be capped. I see downward preesure.
Any major rise puts it completely oversold.

Rise in China today maybe will complete there double top?

Gold - Gold rose but the indexes just fell. So may see the test of US 650 tonight/tomorrow?

 

[bean]

Well I used the word "IF" a few times in the quote because the US markets are "OVERBOUGHT" not "oversold"
So any rise the next few days could be capped. I see downward preesure.
Any major rise puts it completely oversold.

Rise in China today maybe will complete there double top?

Gold - Gold rose but the indexes just fell. So may see the test of US 650 tonight/tomorrow?

They will be those that say Gold didn't test US$ 650
I knew the US Gold indexes were going down and the US Markets were going down. So that was right

China double top? If it wasn't won't be long.

US Gold Indexes they still have down pressure. However US Markets can rise as they got rid of some of there near term 'overbought' condition (sorry kept on mentioning oversold).
But I still expect the Gold Indexes to drop?
Tonight? Tomorrow night?
And does that mean US Market falls tonight again?

 

[bean]

Testing the US$ 650 looks like I was a day out

 

[Sean K]

Testing the US$ 650 looks like I was a day out

But didn't the US market go up? Wasn't that a prediction yesterday - market down?

You're making so many predictions that I can't keep up with them all.

I suppose, you'll get it all right one day bean and you'll be a genius.

 

[bean]

You're making so many predictions that I can't keep up with them all.

I suppose, you'll get it all right one day bean and you'll be a genius.

Kennas ....just for you but you have to wait before you can pick.


The action in Gold and US Gold Indexes tonight and Monday night
will determine if my bearishness has been justified.
It is not the action tonight it is both.
If I happen to get what I am looking for then expect fireworks in all world markets next week?

I entered the pattern, I think will happen in both Gold Indexes and US markets and some Global Markets.
and I get "very bearish" view.
Could be a US$ 20 - US$ 50 move in gold

Now of course I could be wrong and get something completely different. - 'Like the opposite' which is a distinct possibility.
Which I may know tonight or monday depending on the action I get.

Maybe this should also be posted on Imminent and severe market correction...or the rubbish bin
Remember people its not so much what happens tonight (it is a "little") Its the things that may happen next week!!

Note. I have also started monitoring US Bond markets again
So am working a few markets together here

 

[bean]

You're making so many predictions that I can't keep up with them all.

First I said market top Dow(closing) 9th May 13363
Dow high got to 13676 just over 2% more
Nasdaq high 2576 it reach 2627 just made 2% more
I also said Gold when it was at US$690 and I said wasn't going higher
now trading at US$650

This week
On Monday I said China may close the day at double top since then its dropped 4.5%
I also said on Monday Gold would rise and drop back to US$650 which it did last night.
I also said that rises in the US markets were capped for rises this week because of overbought condition which has played out.

Really if you look at the 'big picture' I have been pretty right when you look at what I have said.

So Kennas what is your problem
Just because I don't use charts I use numbers I can't show what I see.

 

[OK2]

I think you are right on these few points, but you have mentioned so many different points in the past which have not taken place. Surely if you mention everything you will inevitably be right on something.

I like following gold and even all the so-called experts who have a more limited opinion have been right and wrong on their gold calls. Gold is clearly following it's own path with no alliance to oil, currency or the international markets.

Watch and see

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I think for gold to really shine D) a few things need to happen first. The first one is for US interest rates to remain steady or fall. This is probable if the mortgage meltdown gets worse. The second will be a flight to perceived safety, which traditionally will be the $US. After the initial rise in the $US there will be a dramatic reversal as it becomes clearer that it is doomed. In the meantime gold will be under some pressure & even lower. Maybe we are at that stage now?
Once the $US breaks below 80 gold will have it's day in the sun.

Some volatile times ahead but they will present a once in a lifetime opportunity to get set in an exploding gold market. Stage 3, the mania phase, is close comrades

 

[bean]

I like following gold and even all the so-called experts who have a more limited opinion have been right and wrong on their gold calls. Gold is clearly following it's own path with no alliance to oil, currency or the international markets.

Watch and see

So -Called experts agree. I follow and listen to a few only
The following link he does Gold Posts every now and again. He is a Bull/Bear because he is a trader. I did my post the other day before he put this out and I totally agree with him. Its also why I keep mentioning US$ 650 because that is pretty close to being the line in the sand

http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1182524400.php

Now the othe person I follow. A short term top in his Gold Index was made tuesday. So I knew any rise in Gold was limited and well it had downward pressure.
The run pattern need a small day up today...The Gold Indexes 'just' finished 'down' Gold finished 'up'. Goldcorp the US stock I follow finished up...but just not enough to be 100% sure in what I said (In my post I said a 'LITTLE" what I wanted was just a little rise).

Monday...well..could easily get a bounce in US Market.
The thing is Gold Indexes are still close to a stage for a breakout or breakdown because the fall in the Indexes has not been big. They are winding up like a coil. So I do know the move when it happens (Gold its self been US662 and US650 so its winding up as well) will be 'big' The US markets well depending on the action Monday and Tuesday could be in for a torrid time by weeks end.
And that is why I also see the fireworks happening next week.

I now notice some posts are saying double tops in various Markets. I do wonder what I have been saying for the last few weeks.

The big moves are getting closer each day because the Gold Indexes have been winding up for ages.

And the bottom in Gold will be about US $540...when....soon/sometime/just have to wait.

 

[Boyou]

China might hold some promise for those holders of Gold and Gold stocks.

Check this link out

http://www.compareshares.com.au/CFD_reports.php


Cheers Ya'll

 

[bean]

Well US $650 area is the support for Gold...will it give and when.

US markets appear vunerable all week... but there danger time for biggest falls is thursday and friday this week.

On a technical anaysis point of view they have three big up days coming of wed...thurs...and friday
Where advance/declines and up/down volume was big.

 

[bean]

The thing is Gold Indexes are still close to a stage for a breakout or breakdown because the fall in the Indexes has not been big. They are winding up like a coil. So I do know the move when it happens (Gold its self been US662 and US650 so its winding up as well) will be 'big'

Well got the big move in Gold and Silver...It looks like the Bear is in
US Markets as I said are vunerable all week...The Bear has his foot in the door
The next three days may be in and opening the pantry door.

 

[Bush Trader]

I think for gold to really shine D) a few things need to happen first. The first one is for US interest rates to remain steady or fall. This is probable if the mortgage meltdown gets worse. The second will be a flight to perceived safety, which traditionally will be the $US. After the initial rise in the $US there will be a dramatic reversal as it becomes clearer that it is doomed. In the meantime gold will be under some pressure & even lower. Maybe we are at that stage now?
Once the $US breaks below 80 gold will have it's day in the sun.

Some volatile times ahead but they will present a once in a lifetime opportunity to get set in an exploding gold market. Stage 3, the mania phase, is close comrades

This article throws some weight to your discussion Festivus, I hope it is of some interest

Cheers

Bush Trader

The Downs And Ups Of Gold In A Crisis
FN Arena News - June 27 2007
By Greg Peel

Gold is supposed to be the safe haven of safe havens. While the US dollar has largely taken over the role of safe haven of choice in recent years, a falling US dollar has helped push gold up from its lows in the (US$) two hundreds to the six hundreds now. Not a bad run for gold. Global excess liquidity and and a raft of new investment products have aided in this rise.
But we are supposedly now facing a financial market crisis of at least some degree of magnitude. It may all blow over, but either way the uncertainty created by the US sub-prime mortgage scare should really be enough to send investors running for cover - into something that will prevent the erosion of their wealth. That should, by rights, be gold.
But that hasn't happened. Indeed, the opposite appears true. When the first US mortgage scare hit in February, gold fell US$40. This seems somewhat counterintuitive. As the second scare begins to engulf us, gold has begun to slip again and is in real danger of breaking down. Why is this so?
The more recent woes in gold began when US bonds made a sharp jump in yield to above 5% for the first time in a long time. While there are various influences suggested for this jump, including renewed inflation fears and foreign portfolio diversification, none were considered anything other than bearish for gold. Yet if inflation really is rising, then gold is a hedge. And if foreigners are divesting of US dollar assets, then the dollar should fall and thus gold rise.
Firstly, fears of wholesale foreign diversification have so far proven unfounded. Secondly, a rise in inflation will lead to a hike in the Fed funds rate, which is bullish for the US dollar and such bearish for gold. Thirdly, as bond rates rise the cost of holding gold (which provides no income) becomes greater. What an investor really needs to consider are both the micro and macro scenarios.
As smaller, short term movements occur within the financial markets gold will react accordingly. It is only when the macro picture becomes influential that gold will begin to act more like "the barbarous relic" that it is often called. This may occur if there a threat of nuclear attack perhaps, or World War III, or oil runs out, or California slips into the sea, or some such significant event. But it might also occur if the threat of financial calamity moves from short term to long term, or code orange to code red, such as if, for example, fiat currencies were under threat of becoming worthless due to the sheer extent of financial market collapse. It may also occur if the threat of global inflation became so great (which is tied into the previous example) that gold "decouples" from the US dollar and no manner of interest rate rise can save the dollar in the end.
It is for the latter reasons that the world currently contains many (patient) uber-bulls.
But in the short term the situation is different. When the Chinese stock market plunged, setting off the sub-prime scare and a brief yen carry trade scare as well, it was not a good time to be in gold. That is because the first reaction of the investor who is losing money in another asset class - the stock market for example - is to liquidate whatever he's got to avoid ruin, or at least avoid heavy losses. Or maybe he needs to meet margin calls. The latter can be very much the case in these highly leveraged times.
Hence gold holdings are dumped. It has long been a mantra that a portion of gold should be held against any stock portfolio as the safety net in a crash. While this is still the case, the fact is that safety net can only be exploited by selling the gold. In the case of the Chinese stock market, so fond of gold are the Chinese that there was no doubt plenty to sell when it looked like the Chinese stock market - full of first time investors - might crash.
And as we now face another potential wholesale sell-down in equities and other assets, gold is falling once more. It is now teetering at the significant technical support level of US$635-640/oz. The feeling among many a gold observer - bulls included - is that it will break. When it does, US$600/oz is next and that's looking breakable as well.
The sharp fall in gold overnight was aided by options expiries in the futures market. The silver market copped even more of a pasting for the same reason. The problem is that there were large positions in short put options that had been established on the upswing. If these became "in the money", then the put sellers would need to sell silver futures to cover - quickly. This is not lost on the rest of the market, so the game becomes "who can set off the stops".
That gold might fall to below US$600/oz has not deterred the longer term bulls. Certainly, if the current financial crisis accelerates then the expectation is that a short sell-off will be replaced by some pretty serious buying. The sort of buying that might see gold testing that magical US$850/oz level sooner rather than later.
But for now, it's a waiting game. Bottom picking can be dangerous.