Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Uncle Festivus]

Which tends to tie in the views of the gold uber-bulls, who are generally backing the barbarous relic on the back of the inevitable collapse of the US dollar. Mind you, the real doomsayers see the collapse of all fiat currency (which is all of them).

The term 'barbarous relic' was referring to the gold standard rather than gold itself.

I think the underlying force to determine wether gold is 'valued' correctly against each currency is to determine which country has been inflating their money supply more, relative to each other. It appears that at the moment the US is top of the monetary inflation stack and relative to the Euro is overvalued (still?).

The same financial structural problems also exist in all countries based on a fiat system, in some relative proportion, so there is every possibility that it will be a 'race to the bottom' of the currency depreciation race (witness Japans active currency manipulation & subsequent carry trade), in order for each country to remain globally competitive aginst the likes of China & now North Korea.

It's a case of he who inflates their money suply the least, gold will look the least attractive. Even the $A will have a blow-off top once the system re adjusts to weakening global demand due to an (peak?) oil induced global slowing (happening now, watch petrol prices), so gold in $A will resume it's march past $1000, it just may take time.

 

[Bush Trader]

Thanks for your insights Uncle Festivus

 

[Kimosabi]

The gold price is massively manipulated by the central banks, because they along with a few others know that Gold is still "Real Money".

Why do you think the World's reserve Banks have most of the Worlds Gold.

The sooner fiat money disappears and is replaced by "Sound Money" the better.

We would all be so much better off...

 

[Uncle Festivus]

The gold price is massively manipulated by the central banks, because they along with a few others know that Gold is still "Real Money".

Why do you think the World's reserve Banks have most of the Worlds Gold.

The sooner fiat money disappears and is replaced by "Sound Money" the better.

We would all be so much better off...

The problem for them (the CB's) is that nobody really knows how much ammo they have left to keep a lid on the POG, in the face of sure & steady accumulation by arab oil, ultra rich elites, skeptical (of governments) Indians & Chinese etc,. If it someday turns out that the cupboard is bare, ie the vaults are depleted, then all hell will break loose because it will confirm that fiat money is worthless.

Actually, a properly administered fiat system is preferable to a straight out gold one for obvious reasons eg gold is cumbersome as an everyday currency. It's just that the temptation to print money is too great, ever since 1971. The accumulated and as yet not purged excesses for all these years will one day have a reckoning, who knows when, but it will be a doozy.

 

[GreatPig]

Is this ominous or what...?

 

[CanOz]

LOL! GP, it depends on whether or not you're superstitious. If you're not then its nothing more than two number regarded by some as being a "bad omen" coincidentally falling in line with each other....

The Chinese regard 4 as the unlucky number, 13 is just another number...

665-666 has been support and resistane for GOLD for a while now, if it clears this its significant.

Cheers,

 

[Sean K]

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[explod]

Sorry, but attempted to post a chart of the gold price, weekly from mid 2001 to present from Bigcharts. Followed Joe's instructions as best I could and that last post was the result.


My post was in answer to one put up by Bush Trader (11/07) indicating that the Gold Price had entered a down trend. A look at the Weekly back a little further indicates that the gold bull-run is still firmly in place.

A number of commentators have attempted to distort the situation with this shorter view, and I just wanted to counter same. I obviously need my Grandson to give me another lesson.

regards explod

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Sorry, but attempted to post a chart of the gold price, weekly from mid 2001 to present from Bigcharts. Followed Joe's instructions as best I could and that last post was the result.


My post was in answer to one put up by Bush Trader (11/07) indicating that the Gold Price had entered a down trend. A look at the Weekly back a little further indicates that the gold bull-run is still firmly in place.

A number of commentators have attempted to distort the situation with this shorter view, and I just wanted to counter same. I obviously need my Grandson to give me another lesson.

regards explod

Well from looking at the chart you can see that the short term is up right now but the angle of assent is hardly convincing but it did move out of its minor short term down move.

I am still on the sidelines until we can break 690 to 700.

 

[explod]

"Well from looking at the chart you can see that the short term is up right now but the angle of assent is hardly convincing but it did move out of its minor short term down move.

I am still on the sidelines until we can break 690 to 700"


On the contrary, (Looking at the chart) from 0ct 01, to Sept 05 the ascent is gradual, it then picks up pace till the present. A very bullish chart

I too stand on the sidelines (in gold stocks)at this stage as some shakeout would appear to continue on current rhetoric. However I base my overall strategies on the firmer long term trends. Weaker US dollor, higher world wide interest rates, growing shortage of oil = stronger gold price. In Australia....wont' appear to happen till after the election. Our rising dollar will insulate for awhile also.

JMHO, but wish I could post a chart

 

[Sean K]

......but wish I could post a chart

Explod, it's really not that hard, you won't need the expertise of your grand daughter.

How to post a chart

 

[wavepicker]

Well from looking at the chart you can see that the short term is up right now but the angle of assent is hardly convincing but it did move out of its minor short term down move.

I am still on the sidelines until we can break 690 to 700

I am with you Trade It. I have been on the sidelines with regard to this for 10months now, after initially going short and then long in May last year.

The secular trend on this is still up IMO. In fact long time cycles say this secular trend does not finish till approximately 2018!!!!! But as mentioned in a post made last year at the peak , the 8.5 Year cycle in Gold is due to bottom till 2008/9(but this does not imply that price will also bottom at the same time-in fact price may have already bottomed), therefore Gold /Silver might be caught in sluggish/choppy range till it's ready to convincingly break out. At the moment there is nothing to convince otherwise

Cheres

 

[>Apocalypto<]

"Well from looking at the chart you can see that the short term is up right now but the angle of assent is hardly convincing but it did move out of its minor short term down move.

I am still on the sidelines until we can break 690 to 700"


On the contrary, (Looking at the chart) from 0ct 01, to Sept 05 the ascent is gradual, it then picks up pace till the present. A very bullish chart

I too stand on the sidelines (in gold stocks)at this stage as some shakeout would appear to continue on current rhetoric. However I base my overall strategies on the firmer long term trends. Weaker US dollor, higher world wide interest rates, growing shortage of oil = stronger gold price. In Australia....wont' appear to happen till after the election. Our rising dollar will insulate for awhile also.

JMHO, but wish I could post a chart

sep 05 is a long time ago we have had so many new dynamices to the market since then how can u base current price situation on sep 05?

Gold weekly

I revise my earlier post there is still alot of minor downward pressure on gold at the moment but we have support underneath blue line failed ascending triangle break out. What wavepicker posted makes a lot of sense in what I see minor up and down angles and one major from our previous high. I agree looks like it will band in a range of high 640's to high 680's. Still need to see mayor down resistance broken, then a break of 690 to commit a long.

See chart

 

[>Apocalypto<]

On the contrary, (Looking at the chart) from 0ct 01, to Sept 05 the ascent is gradual, it then picks up pace till the present. A very bullish chart

Explod i take back my comment to you, i did not fully take in what you said please disregard the following remark of mine:

sep 05 is a long time ago we have had so many new dynamices to the market since then how can u base current price situation on sep 05?

Yes the chart in bullish no doubt about that but are all the time frames bullish? Long term yes medium term i say not short term i say not.

 

[explod]

Explod i take back my comment to you, i did not fully take in what you said please disregard the following remark of mine:



Yes the chart in bullish no doubt about that but are all the time frames bullish? Long term yes medium term i say not short term i say not.

The dynamics, if we include fundamentals (and I do go by both) since 05 have in fact improved for gold. They are in my view, weaker US dollar (huge debt and growing) rising oil prices. And the ever parachuting (remember Allan Bond) dirivative/currency trade (if that's the right term) that is about to implode on an astronomic scale.

I wite this as the US dollar is about to go through an all time low (which begins at 1971) and gold is making a strong up move from a long peiod of consoildation and shakeout.

Hold your hats, and your physical bullion for the ride of your life is about to begin

 

[Sean K]

Gold up and markets down.

Bean, is that part of the plan? Perhaps this is just a one off.

 

[explod]

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Gold rallied after the dollar weakened when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke highlighted the dangers of the sub-prime fallout to the US economy in his semi-annual testimony to Congress.

Gold tends to move counter to the dollar, as it is seen as an alternative asset to the world's most common currency reserve.

'The dollar is weaker and that is the main driver for gold right now,' said Calyon analyst, Michael Widmer. 'Now it's slipped below 1.38 versus the euro, everything seems to be pointing to the problems in the housing market and the potential for lower (US) interest rates weakening the dollar further.'

At 4.45 pm, spot gold was trading at 672.90 usd an ounce, compared with 665.00 usd in late New York trade yesterday.

Some analysts believe gold is asserting its position as a wealth guarantor in times of market volatility, following Bear Stearn's announcement that two of their stressed hedge funds are now essentially worthless after investing heavily in the US sub-prime market.

'Gold hasn't just risen because of the dollar, it's risen against sterling as well,' said BullionVault.com analyst Adrian Ash. 'A lot of people are concerned about Bear Stearns (nyse: BSC - news - people ), and the level of fear you're seeing in the market is bringing people back to gold.'

Gold is further supported by oil prices trading close to all time record highs. Prices have received a further boost from falling US inventories today.

Bullion often rises in line with oil as it is used as an inflationary hedge against higher fuel costs.

The lack of buying by jewellers, turned off by high prices in the historically quiet summer period, has limited some of gold's gains.

Among other precious metals, platinum is up to 1,318 usd against 1,308 usd after reports that South African mine workers rejected a pay offer from Northam Platinum, increasing the likelihood of strike action.

Its sister metal palladium fell to 365 usd against 366 usd.

Silver was up to 13.17 usd against 12.93 usd.


d.sheppard@thomson.com

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Gold up and markets down.

Bean, is that part of the plan? Perhaps this is just a one off.

Ha Ha Ha

Nice one Kennas, that would have scrambled him!

 

[bean]

Strange why I have not posted comments on Gold since last week and that comment was not to bearish on Gold. In fact I was also asking for bullish comments
Gold has risen. I have rebought Gold and silver stocks last week. I am 100% in Gold and silver stocks
I have 50% in CTO 30% in MMN and 20% in TAM.

I also mention the US markets being oversold needed a pullback as that would cap any advance. They had a good down day and then broke out to new highs.
China still at the 3900-3920 resistance and as I said if it get through it next was about 4030.

Gold up DOW down today...Maybe the Gold Indexes were playing catchup
DOW 3 Jan 12475 today 13918 so 11.5% increase for the year
US Gold Indexs 3rd Jan 136.95 and 324 today 154.41 and 365.1 a 12% increase

http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1184857200.phphttp://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1184857200.php

Now I am not that bullish or am I?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Warning - thinking out loud here, could be garbage

Tentatively going bullish here based on gold shares taking the lead over spot gold. Interesting symmetry between XAU & physical, which usually indicates a solid trend formation in the early stages, and particlarly from this point has the potential to break the previous high of $730, after the long consolidation period since Jan/March 07?

The proviso is that any correction in the general market will not be too extreme. If the general market corrects and gold and gold shares keep appreciating then it will be game on for gold again, as the 'smart money' has exited normal stocks and battened down the hatches with gold stocks & bullion as protection from the $US going over the waterfall?