Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[METALMAN]

FOMC statement released on Thursday!...Must be NO sign of any inflation because they sure as hell ain’t going to raise the rate.

TIME TO : http://images2.jokaroo.net/flash/elevatordisco.swf

 

[bean]

Well US $650 area is the support for Gold...will it give and when.

US markets appear vunerable all week... but there danger time for biggest falls is thursday and friday this week.

On a technical anaysis point of view they have three big up days coming of wed...thurs...and friday
Where advance/declines and up/down volume was big.

Not fully the week I was expecting.
Got big move in gold down through US$ 650 support however got a countertrend rally which may have finished.

US market 3 days down seems to be max at the moment either be attempted rally on 3 rd day down or rally on 4th down day.
Explain in first few paragraphs here but read the rest of article re gold
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/BP/2007/0623.html

I said "US Markets appear vunerable thursday friday"
Look the Dow finished dow 14 points today "Wow"
But in actually fact it dropped 200 points from its high during the day but a last minute rally reduced it to just 14 poitnts

China still falling...no one cares...won't effect Australia???
Interesting comments...Hong Kong wonder if they will move down because of China??
If they did wonder who else might...suddenly sentiment in the Asian markets move negative...But of course it won't effect Australia!!!
In fact there is no foreign investment in the stock market in China!!!

Next week 4th July........Fireworks

Gold may have finish it's move higher...getting ready for another big move down.
US Markets they are in a coil 13500 up 13200 down...ready for a big move
S&P500 1490 support...Ths Nasdaq 2570-2575 support (its 50 day moving average)
China...$64 dollar question...if sell off continues it will pick up speed...Crash???

But the DOW has been down 2 days in a row???
So is Monday down Tuesday up? or both down
All of the above will move in the same direction together??
The are now set up for a move together.

 

[Boyou]

Some more good news on Gold

Cheers Ya'll

June 28, 2007

Demand For Gold From Industrial Applications Now Looks Set To Rise


Each year a few old greyheads get together to discuss the future for the price of gold and their thoughts, which are worth reading, appear in the annual report of a small Canadian gold producer called Moneta Porcupine Mines. The essence this year is that costs are rising and in these conditions fewer new mines will come on stream and the demand /supply ratio will remain out of kilter. Gold Fields is given as an example. This South African company is one of the biggest producers in the world and it now has to bear cash costs of US$400/oz with non-cash recurring expenses such as amortization on top. Only four years ago Gold Fields was reporting costs below US$300/oz and this upward trend is seen as irreversible.
As the wise men from Moneta point out, mines with brand new productive capacity can put up with thin profit margins for a while. Most production, however, comes from old mines and the companies need funds to maintain current production as well as invest in new sources of production. In addition there is the time element. Aurelian discovered the Fruta del Norte deposit in Mexico and Anglo Ashanti/Independence the Tropicana deposit in Western Australia in the last couple of years but very few other major discoveries have been made. Both of them are still 3 to 4 years from production and if the scarcity of plant and equipment endures it could be longer than that.

In the meantime production in South Africa continues to fall, and major producers in North America, Australia and Russia would be hard pushed to claim that they are churning out more gold. Latin America is probably the only bright spot, but mining by western companies is subject to hostile politics in many countries and the loonies from the NGOs and environmental groups make start-ups difficult despite the impact on local labour. China is a growing producer, but it cannot make up the difference between supply and demand and it is this ratio which governs price. Central banks may sell and scrap may be recovered but the trend in favour of demand is now well established.

In South Africa both Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti are now planning to mine 4 kms underground at huge expense as the easier, shallow ore has all been mined out. Now it is a struggle – gold grades from existing mines have been declining, wages are rising as are social costs, equipment prices are soaring, skilled professionals are in short supply, but production and revenues have been falling. South Africa’s mining costs are already the highest in the world and it is only likely to get worse. The gold industry may have grown rich on the country’s cheap labour but no more. Only a few weeks ago the National Union of Mineworkers was demanding a 15 per cent wage increase for its members.

On top of all this there are the technical challenges of mining at such depth. At 4 kms below ground the rock temperature is well over 50 degrees C. Improved air conditioning technology is vital if the workers are going to be able to operate efficiently. Also there are problems with haulage. No cable can be used with safety on lifts over such a distance, so workers have to use several different shafts to get to their work place and this could mean the journey takes the best part of 2 hours. 2 hours down and 2 hours up results in them working for only 5 hours of a nine hour shift. And just think of the electricity costs off all these lifts as well as the air conditioning equipment. The gold price will have to stay high to make it worth while, and if it doesn’t the economic future of South Africa will be under threat.

Lastly there is some really good news on the demand front. The World Gold Council has been presenting recent developments in gold catalyst science applications at a major convention in Houston. More than 1,000 scientists have been meeting to discuss original research and advancements in the broad use of catalysts in the petroleum, chemical, pharmaceutical, energy and environmental industries. Gold ranks among the most high-tech of metals, performing a vital role in many cutting-edge technologies that are helping improve areas of everyday life. Its unique physical and chemical properties mean it is the only material that can be used for certain industrial and medical applications.

According to Richard Holliday, head of Industrial Applications at the WGC, there were more than 30 talks on gold as it is the current hot topic. “In chemical processing, pollution control and fuel cell catalysis there is great interest in exploiting the unique properties of gold. Even in the automotive industry, where gold was once considered too unstable to be used, we are seeing progress in commercialisation with Nanostellar's recent announcement of a gold-containing diesel oxidation catalyst,” he said. Already used in a handful of applications, further industrial trials are currently underway in which ‘nano’ gold is being used as a catalyst. These trials include the control of mercury emissions from power stations, efforts to improve the long term durability of fuel cells and plans to create more effective gas masks to ensure safety of workers in emergency situations.

There are plenty of other potential applications in fine chemical production, water treatment and control of atmospheric pollution which show gold to be an important ‘green’ metal that plays an ever increasing essential role in everyday lives. Together these amount to a major step-forward in the potential use of gold in emission and pollution control. For a long time gold has suffered in comparison with platinum and silver as there is less demand from industrial applications. This period may now be drawing to a close. Always remember that is the demand supply ratio that governs price and the reason for being bullish about gold becomes obvious.

 

[Sean K]

Not fully the week I was expecting.
Got big move in gold down through US$ 650 support however got a countertrend rally which may have finished.

US market 3 days down seems to be max at the moment either be attempted rally on 3 rd day down or rally on 4th down day.
Explain in first few paragraphs here but read the rest of article re gold
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/BP/2007/0623.html

I said "US Markets appear vunerable thursday friday"
Look the Dow finished dow 14 points today "Wow"
But in actually fact it dropped 200 points from its high during the day but a last minute rally reduced it to just 14 poitnts

China still falling...no one cares...won't effect Australia???
Interesting comments...Hong Kong wonder if they will move down because of China??
If they did wonder who else might...suddenly sentiment in the Asian markets move negative...But of course it won't effect Australia!!!
In fact there is no foreign investment in the stock market in China!!!

Next week 4th July........Fireworks

Gold may have finish it's move higher...getting ready for another big move down.
US Markets they are in a coil 13500 up 13200 down...ready for a big move
S&P500 1490 support...Ths Nasdaq 2570-2575 support (its 50 day moving average)
China...$64 dollar question...if sell off continues it will pick up speed...Crash???

But the DOW has been down 2 days in a row???
So is Monday down Tuesday up? or both down
All of the above will move in the same direction together??
The are now set up for a move together.

So, Bean, can you please succinctly state in a few pithy well constructed sentances exactly what you had predicted here, and whether it came to fruition or not?

Or, did you actually predict that anything could and will happen.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

It's easy Kennas. Because the US markets are closed tonight I see them possibly going sideways for the next day or so, but then could go up, maybe down after that. This will be opposite to gold, which hasn't broken to the upside due to the price going down in sympathy when the DOW hasn't gone up.
If the DOW does go up for 2 days in a row then it will be setting up for gold to follow, but only if it too goes up, so we will then have a confirmed sideways movement with a $100 range. Should the Nasdaq also go up for 3 days to new highs then China will exert some influence to forcefully crash gold to a new low. Maybe.
Who cares, I'm 100% Polish Zloty's now

 

[Bush Trader]

It's easy Kennas. Because the US markets are closed tonight I see them possibly going sideways for the next day or so, but then could go up, maybe down after that. This will be opposite to gold, which hasn't broken to the upside due to the price going down in sympathy when the DOW hasn't gone up.
If the DOW does go up for 2 days in a row then it will be setting up for gold to follow, but only if it too goes up, so we will then have a confirmed sideways movement with a $100 range. Should the Nasdaq also go up for 3 days to new highs then China will exert some influence to forcefully crash gold to a new low. Maybe.
Who cares, I'm 100% Polish Zloty's now

I remember when this used to be a good thread, I suggest we get it back to that and delete the c##p posts from "UNOWHO" (me think, would make a good pollie, says it all yet nothing). Then Festivus will be able to cut out his facetious behaviour and focus on some analysis.

Cheers


BT

 

[bean]

I remember when this used to be a good thread, I suggest we get it back to that and delete the c##p posts from "UNOWHO" (me think, would make a good pollie, says it all yet nothing). Then Festivus will be able to cut out his facetious behaviour and focus on some analysis.

Cheers


BT

Oh and here I was going to say Gold up tonight
and gold down next week.
But remember I am trying to line the US markets and Gold falling together.
The movment in Gold and Gold Indexes to there bottom will be in line with the markets.
I am sorry Bulls that you don't like the posts but Gold is in a downtrend and the time for this correction finishing really depends when the markets finally roll over for good.
You now have a divergenge in the US with the DOW and Nasdaq

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Oh and here I was going to say Gold up tonight
and gold down next week.
But remember I am trying to line the US markets and Gold falling together.
The movment in Gold and Gold Indexes to there bottom will be in line with the markets.
I am sorry Bulls that you don't like the posts but Gold is in a downtrend and the time for this correction finishing really depends when the markets finally roll over for good.
You now have a divergenge in the US with the DOW and Nasdaq

Bean,

As I say belive in your own bull Sh.i.t but dont get high off it.

You make guesses based on a unproven theory.

Markets move as one in times and in oppersite directions in other times beliving the Gold Index and US indexes more together is a dangerous asumbtion as if you veiw there charts they are not moving in the same dicrection.

Gold is in a short term down trend and the US indexes are moving in a band yet to be proven bullish or bearish. Due to the current bull market traders would lean to the bullish side for now.

I have followed you from the beginning, you have had a couple lucky calls but there is no substance or depth to your argument.

you have chopped and changed and then gone back to bearish once a possible short term top was evident which takes no skill at all.

Gold is in a bull market a very long one bull markets correct its the normal order of things. So please show evidence that we are heading to a bear market. I know you will keep crowing for the next year or how ever long it takes till the market turns to bear and then you will be scearming i told you so. Well you didn't as I could do the same thing and one day become right.

Please show some charts or demonstrate with clarity why we are heading to a market reversal on indexes and in Gold?

Please don't be one of the 1000's of top calling wanna be's

Good trading

 

[Sean K]

Oh and here I was going to say Gold up tonight
and gold down next week.
But remember I am trying to line the US markets and Gold falling together.
The movment in Gold and Gold Indexes to there bottom will be in line with the markets.
I am sorry Bulls that you don't like the posts but Gold is in a downtrend and the time for this correction finishing really depends when the markets finally roll over for good.
You now have a divergenge in the US with the DOW and Nasdaq

You haven ´t answered my questions from last week Bean when you said the US was going to implode, or something, and then something else was going to happen, like gold and gold stocks go down. Or, if that didn't happen they were going to go up, or we had to wait?? What the hell are you on about? You are the only one that knows. Doesn't that seem somewhat obvious to you now?

Can I summarise all you have said by: If the market goes down, gold and gold stocks will go down, and vicie versa? Brilliant.

I second BT's comments.

 

[bean]

You haven ´t answered my questions from last week Bean when you said the US was going to implode, or something, and then something else was going to happen, like gold and gold stocks go down. Or, if that didn't happen they were going to go up, or we had to wait?? What the hell are you on about? You are the only one that knows. Doesn't that seem somewhat obvious to you now?

Can I summarise all you have said by: If the market goes down, gold and gold stocks will go down, and vicie versa? Brilliant.

I second BT's comments.

Gold I said ‘MAY’ have finished

That was where the.. if.. factor was in the markets. Gold moved a few $ higher so the markets moved up as well If gold had of finished the markets (Dow) would have moved down.
Then I said Gold would move down again which its started to!!

“All of the above will move in the same direction together??
The are now set up for a move together.”

They moved in the same direction. And I am getting them allinging together.

I have one of the US gold Indexes up for 6 days straight may give a buy signal soon. Or is it ready to signal the end of this move.

“As I believe Gold is going to US$515 – US$540.
For it to get there the logical reason is for the markets (world) to be in a severe correction. (crash).
And golds move and that of the Gold stocks will be because of the above. and both moving in the same direction initially”

Gold over the last number of months has been about the only thing that has not been rising.

US 10 year bonds the yield moved down last week as gold little counter rally started.
The yield is such that (today 5.14) there is a strong possibility that could shoot up next week (above 5.25 ? )

What yield would affect the markets?? And Gold.??
“There is a question”

You want me to post charts etc. I don’t do charts. I look at them.
Some of the links I gave had charts and well if you did read them you may have saw this last rally in gold. As for the DOW I am sure if you look at any chart you will see a rounding or broadening top.


As for China well I suppose you will say everyone knew
China still falling...no one cares
China...$64 dollar question...if sell off continues it will pick up speed...Crash??

Well composite has only in last 12 days (not including today)
Fallen from 4270 to 3615 only about 15%
And of those 12 days 5 were up. And well it has been picking up speed.
I also mentioned about sentiment turning if China keep falling..

Today I mentioned about China rising in another chat.

I am a Gold Bull...I hold physical silver...I am bearish on Gold at the moment...
Am I right since I have said Gold as it was near US$700 was not going past and was going to drop...I am 100% correct...I am saying Gold is going to US$515-US$540...Those who are bullish show me I am wrong prove to me in every rise gold is going higher...so I can change my mind otherwise I will be posting bearish comments with the ocassionally bullishness for counter rallies....Everytime you put a bullish thing up I say it will fall and who is winning so far...My only fault is timing and also and this is the most important thing is that the main fall to the price I have said will be brought about by falls in the US and World markets.

How close is it??? You can see by the movement in Gold it could be anytime.
Because Gold sure is not going higher towards US$700 at the moment.
It needs something...
I am bullish Gold!!! and more so Silver but I expect Silver to drop to US$9.50-US$10.50...when is the $64 question...soon?

 

[SGB]

Gold I said ‘MAY’ have finished

That was where the.. if.. factor was in the markets. Gold moved a few $ higher so the markets moved up as well If gold had of finished the markets (Dow) would have moved down.
Then I said Gold would move down again which its started to!!

“All of the above will move in the same direction together??
The are now set up for a move together.”

They moved in the same direction. And I am getting them allinging together.

I have one of the US gold Indexes up for 6 days straight may give a buy signal soon. Or is it ready to signal the end of this move.

“As I believe Gold is going to US$515 – US$540.
For it to get there the logical reason is for the markets (world) to be in a severe correction. (crash).
And golds move and that of the Gold stocks will be because of the above. and both moving in the same direction initially”

Gold over the last number of months has been about the only thing that has not been rising.

US 10 year bonds the yield moved down last week as gold little counter rally started.
The yield is such that (today 5.14) there is a strong possibility that could shoot up next week (above 5.25 ? )

What yield would affect the markets?? And Gold.??
“There is a question”

You want me to post charts etc. I don’t do charts. I look at them.
Some of the links I gave had charts and well if you did read them you may have saw this last rally in gold. As for the DOW I am sure if you look at any chart you will see a rounding or broadening top.


As for China well I suppose you will say everyone knew
China still falling...no one cares
China...$64 dollar question...if sell off continues it will pick up speed...Crash??

Well composite has only in last 12 days (not including today)
Fallen from 4270 to 3615 only about 15%
And of those 12 days 5 were up. And well it has been picking up speed.
I also mentioned about sentiment turning if China keep falling..

Today I mentioned about China rising in another chat.

I am a Gold Bull...I hold physical silver...I am bearish on Gold at the moment...
Am I right since I have said Gold as it was near US$700 was not going past and was going to drop...I am 100% correct...I am saying Gold is going to US$515-US$540...Those who are bullish show me I am wrong prove to me in every rise gold is going higher...so I can change my mind otherwise I will be posting bearish comments with the ocassionally bullishness for counter rallies....Everytime you put a bullish thing up I say it will fall and who is winning so far...My only fault is timing and also and this is the most important thing is that the main fall to the price I have said will be brought about by falls in the US and World markets.

How close is it??? You can see by the movement in Gold it could be anytime.
Because Gold sure is not going higher towards US$700 at the moment.
It needs something...
I am bullish Gold!!! and more so Silver but I expect Silver to drop to US$9.50-US$10.50...when is the $64 question...soon?

Hello Bean
First of all let me thank you for finally giving all of us a clear, concise interpretation on your rational thoughts. I don't know whether i had missed it before, but it did take me a couple of months of careful analysis to try and work out what direction you had drafted. I finally know now and this i thank you.
Cheers

SGB

 

[boiler]

NEW YORK, July 5 (Reuters) - In a move seen as bullish for the price of gold, Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Thursday it eliminated its entire 1.85 million-ounce gold hedge position.

The Denver-based gold company, the world's second biggest producer after Canada's Barrick Gold Co. (ABX.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) (ABX.N: Quote, Profile, Research), also said it is mulling a possible sale or public offering of its merchant banking business.

The hedging announcement, which analysts viewed as a positive sign for the price of gold, sent the company's shares up 2.3 percent in after-hours trading.

One analyst also saw the action by Newmont's new chief executive Richard O'Brien as a way to boost Newmont's stock price, which has disappointed investors at a time when gold has soared.

Bill O'Neill, an analyst at LOGIC Advisors, said Newmont's decision to eliminate hedging was crucial to the gold market.

"Obviously if there's less hedge pressure in the market, it does indicate a level of confidence and perhaps an indication that maybe the market is at the bottom end of its trading range.

"It's something of a vote of confidence. It's an indication that they do feel that the downside from here is probably fairly minimal," said O'Neill.

Gold reached a 26-year high of $730 per ounce in May 2006, but has slipped somewhat since then. On Thursday, it dropped 1.3 percent to around $645.70 an ounce.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Market watchers have said that Newmont's decision to eliminate hedging was "crucial" to the gold market, and a real "vote of confidence" for the outlook for the gold market. Recently, Macquarie Research Equities (MRE) increased their gold price target to $720/oz in 2008, some 10% upside to where gold is at present. Of the top Aussie gold producers, MRE have a clear preference for Lihir Gold (LGL). In fact, On MRE’s numbers, a 10% increase in the gold price will result in a 19% earnings upside for LGL due to its unhedged gold book.

 

[chicken]

Check Kitco and you will see ALL the graphs in the GOLD futures have turned POSITVE...UP....so check it as the market may be in for a GOLD rally....

 

[wayneL]

Check Kitco and you will see ALL the graphs in the GOLD futures have turned POSITVE...UP....so check it as the market may be in for a GOLD rally....

Rally is possible of course, but a bit of work to do yet.

What I would like to see is the gold chart in AUD. Anyone have one?

 

[GreatPig]

Only that GOLD stock on the ASX, which is essentially the same as the Goldcorp warrant.

Seems to be sitting right back on the base support line from early 2006.

GP

 

[bean]

Rally is possible of course, but a bit of work to do yet.

Gold price back up to to channel on your chart. Needs to break US$622 and US$666.
Plus and minus
One of the Gold Index I follow has finished 8 days up
The others I use are ready to give signals (buy)
The DOW nearly new record close
China composite nearly 3900 (resistance 3900-3920) - next (4000-4030)

Gold Indexes due for a pullback?
The signal will mark the top of move ?
US$662-666 resistance?
The DOW and US markets I have extreme reading on the plus side (they are strong) but it is overbought (not extreme but generally) may cap advance??
Does it sell for a few days?
China if it fails then back down and soon may have a test of 3600 if that fails it downward pressure would really pick up.
Overnight bond yields dropped they have to rise this week otherwise I will get a reversal and yields will start dropping and bond yoelds was one of the things I was looking for in bringing markets and Gold down.

 

[wayneL]

Only that GOLD stock on the ASX, which is essentially the same as the Goldcorp warrant.

Seems to be sitting right back on the base support line from early 2006.

GP

Thanks GP,

It doesn't look as bad as I thought it would (bearing in mind the rocket up the AUD's @rse)

Gold price back up to to channel on your chart. Needs to break US$622 and US$666.
Plus and minus
One of the Gold Index I follow has finished 8 days up
The others I use are ready to give signals (buy)
The DOW nearly new record close
China composite nearly 3900 (resistance 3900-3920) - next (4000-4030)

Gold Indexes due for a pullback?
The signal will mark the top of move ?
US$662-666 resistance?
The DOW and US markets I have extreme reading on the plus side (they are strong) but it is overbought (not extreme but generally) may cap advance??
Does it sell for a few days?
China if it fails then back down and soon may have a test of 3600 if that fails it downward pressure would really pick up.
Overnight bond yields dropped they have to rise this week otherwise I will get a reversal and yields will start dropping and bond yoelds was one of the things I was looking for in bringing markets and Gold down.

The US goldies I follow have put in a strong pre-emptive run, but I'm skeptical of any robust rally from here, but fully aware this could just be a cognitive bias.

The channel offered up a couple of obvious trades, but standing aside for now.

Re bond yields: Treasuries will need to make a new low to make the equity players sit up and take notice again. But for now, bouncing at minor technical support.

 

[boiler]

Gold, Oil, Currencies & Interest Rates
By Colin Twiggs
July 10, 2007 3:00 a.m. EST (5:00 p.m. AEST)

These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use.

Gold
Spot gold broke through the upper border of the trend channel, completing a small inverted head and shoulders reversal. A rally to test resistance at $695 is now likely, while reversal below $645 would signal a test of primary support above $630. The weak dollar and rising crude prices should boost demand for gold.

 

[Bush Trader]

This put quite a different spin on things for all those Gold Bulls

Cheers


BT

Gold Strength A US Dollar Phenomenon Only
Source: FN Arena News - July 10 2007
By Greg Peel

"This chart is disconcertingly bearish for the US dollar, for thus far the gold bull market has been denominated only in US dollar terms," notes Dennis Gartman, of The Gartman Letter fame. "Gold in euro terms looks horrid...indeed quite bearish." And it can't be looking too good in Aussie dollar terms either.

Gartman counts himself among gold's bulls, but as a short term trader he has no specific long position at present. He makes the point however, that if gold is to be truly considered in a bull trend then it should be trending so against all currencies - not just the US dollar. This gold/euro chart implies that gold has broken a long term trend in euro terms as the euro has reached historical highs against the US dollar. The flipside is that gold in US dollar terms is only strong because the US dollar is weak, not because gold is fundamentally strong.

Which tends to tie in the views of the gold uber-bulls, who are generally backing the barbarous relic on the back of the inevitable collapse of the US dollar. Mind you, the real doomsayers see the collapse of all fiat currency (which is all of them).