Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Slow STO Signals A Gold Buy?

2005079518682707761_rs.jpg


A buy at the US$635 level seems like a good entry level.
 
The index I mentioned in earlier posts his last up date
Please read – may help you understand
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html

Herein lies the problem it bought last night, Using it on the HUI and XAU they brought as well the night before.
Now my own Gold system did not it may if the Gold Indexes rise for a couple of more days 2-3
Normally I would be seeing a slight change in my values at the moment (slight turn up) but I have not I have a divergence!!!
The US Market Indexes have alingned themselves again for the possibility of a two day down tonight and tomorrow to show a change in direction.
Believe it our not the Dow has closed three days in a row down. and other Indicies apart from advance on Monday have gone nowhere.
So part of my system uses numbers and time series come into play, so does various technical analysis.
Short medium and long term.
And its not just the Nasdaq its NYSE and a few others and Dow itself….
I would not be concerned if I had a buy in Gold Indexes because chances of it happening would be less.

I also know the price of Gold has not passed various pivot points as yet.
So those using pivots are not buying gold.

The wavers calling wave five of five in the markets well they are covered because hardest wave to pick and wave five can be extended. However if in fact US Gold Indexes are joining the advance then the markets may well rise for several more months or longer

Kauri why I wanted to see the alternate count down was the only reason his system would not buy was what you showed but over three days. And that may well come into place if the US Markets and Gold Indexes and Gold move down together. Because I do not have a buy signal on Gold and I have that set up mentioned in US Markets something like that may well come into place.
If the bullish case is in for Gold a small retractment tonight then a push up?
Or just a push up?

At the moment I myself still do not have a buy signal in US Gold Indexes.
I do not have a sell signal in the US Markets.
So Gold’s direction????
Hopefully the next two days I will get an indication of a signal in one of them

I invest mainly in Gold & Silver stocks, the ones I invest in are mainly lower in price from when I sold.
I have been in a no risk situation.

One thing you've got take into consideration with Gold, is that the Bank of Spain has sold off "80 tonnes of Gold, flooding the world market". Some other european banks have sold some Gold as well as some ETF's. It looks like spain is skating on the edge of a currency/banking crisis. And there you go, I thought booms just kept going, and going, and going, and going.....

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/banco-de-espana/2007/05/29/

Considering the above, I think Gold has held up pretty well.
 
Gold still one to watch.

still in this cont pattern, showing buyer support on the trend line.

CCI is showing a buy but I am waiting for some more strength, I am even looking more to a break out of $690 to confirm the pattern.

still waiting and watching.
 

Attachments

  • Spot Gold (mini) (290507).jpg
    Spot Gold (mini) (290507).jpg
    86.6 KB · Views: 73
I'm stepping cautiously into some august longs here.

The USD is starting to look weak again, and the the price is just edging over the supply trendline.

Small pozzie, and will pyramid up to normal size if it gets on with it over the session.

4raekiq.png
 
well more short term weakness is creeping in with last nights price push rejected and now a minor descending triangle formed around short term price.

I was thinking about opening some positions but now more then ever I want to see this trend line (Blue Line) hold.

testing times on the short term.
 

Attachments

  • Spot Gold (mini) (Undated).jpg
    Spot Gold (mini) (Undated).jpg
    94.9 KB · Views: 47
Yes TI,

Bear counterattack last night... and Dollar bulls on the March. I quickly retreated to my fox hole :eek:
 
Interesting....

Steven Hochberg is Chief Market Analyst for Elliott Wave International, a financial forecasting firm in Gainesville, Ga., and a close associate of Robert Prechter, who founded the company in 1979. He is also co-editor of the financial newsletter The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast and Short Term Update. Mr. Hochberg began his professional career with Merrill Lynch & Co. and joined Elliott Wave International in 1994.

Here The Gold Report gets his latest insights on the outlook for gold according to the Elliott Wave Theory.

TGR: You have indicated that you expect to see a decline in the price of gold: ”There is greater bearish potential than even a decline to around $450, but we won’t know for certain until we see the technical make-up of the sell-off toward this level.” With gold now closing hovering in the mid-$600s, do you still forecast a decline in the range of $450? If so, do you see gold tracking downward in the near term or later in the year?

SH: Gold completed its upward correction a few weeks after we last spoke, on February 27, at $699, basis the June contract. Prices tested this level in late April and since then have come off about $50. We think this decline is the start of our forecasted move.

TGR: Have you seen any significant changes in investor sentiment toward gold in the past three months? Are there any new trends emerging that give greater support to gold? Conversely, that would undermine gold’s rise?

SH: There was a definite change in investor attitude toward gold at the April retest of the February high. Investor optimism reached 90% according to the Daily Sentiment Index. Historically, such extremes signify that a gold rally is in its late stages. This extreme happened to coincide closely with the high. At the same time, numerous stories started to pop up stating that gold was on its way to $800 or higher. So the backdrop was conducive for a gold high and subsequent reversal, which appears to be under way.

TGR: Given the extreme volatility, what is the Wave Principle forecasting now with regard to future market behavior? Are the wave patterns suggesting what the market is likely to do or not do over the coming six months?

SH: Gold’s trend in the coming months should be down. The decline, which will be punctuated by countertrend rallies when pessimism becomes extreme in the near term, should eventually draw prices to below $500, which the Wave Principle indicates is the minimum downside target. Once prices fulfill this forecast, we will assess the pattern and indicators to determine if there is greater bearish potential, or if a significant and long-lasting bottom is forming that will lead to a major price advance.

TGR: You stated in our previous interview with you: “Economic conditions have nothing to do with when and how gold moves. For example, most people view gold as the ultimate inflation hedge. Yet suppose you knew for certain that inflation would triple the money supply over a period of 20+ years. What would you expect gold prices to do? Most gold investors would expect the price to soar. Well, from 1980-2003, M1 more than tripled, and gold prices lost over 50% of their value.” This opinion seems contrary to what other pundits are saying. Namely, that the more value the dollar loses, the more attractive gold looks and the higher the price goes.

SH: A big mistake pundits make is to assume a fixed inverse correlation between the US dollar index and gold. There is none. There are indeed long periods of time when the dollar goes down and gold goes up (and vice versa) but there are other times when they both rally or decline together. For instance, from April 1995 to February 1996, the US Dollar index rallied over 8%. Over this same period, gold was up nearly 6%. We find that it’s best to analyze each market individually instead of assuming a relationship that may or may not exist, which will get you into analytical trouble more often then not. This holds true with nearly all markets.

TGR: You mentioned in our last interview that the only precondition for application of wave analysis is that the market being analyzed must be freely traded --- do you believe that gold is freely traded? GATA has gathered an inordinate amount of evidence that the gold market has been managed since 1994 by a cartel consisting of bullion banks (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, etc.), the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund, the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the Bank for International Settlements.

SH: I am not intimately familiar with all of GATA’s arguments, so it is difficult for me to comment on specifics. I do know that there are some highly intelligent people in the organization and others who agree with GATA’s view. My own personal views do not lend themselves to grand conspiracies, but I try to keep an open mind when presented with evidence. The key for me is to look at a market and see if there is a clear and compelling Elliott wave. If I see one, then odds are extremely low that the market in question is being manipulated to any degree that would change its course. If it were, there would be no wave pattern. As for gold, you can tell from our discussion that I do see a clear Elliott wave pattern. (5/29/07)
 
Posted On: Tuesday, November 19, 2002, 6:45:00 PM EST
A Time for Reflection
Author: Jim Sinclair

I believe that I serve this investment community not only in my capacity to impart to you the value of my experience and in hopefully balancing the strong emotions that are common to precious metals trading.


In that capacity, I have been the recipient over the period of September 23 to today of conservatively 2000 emails, the majority of which demonstrated no commitment fundamentally to a potential bull market in gold. I have repeatedly suggested that investment in any field, whether gold, tech, biomeds, bombed-out utilities or whatever, requires first and foremost a strong, well-thought-out fundamental viewpoint. All the technical studies you do will at best break you, even if you have no fundamental understanding and adherence bullish/bearish to the selected field of investment.

It is time that you determine where you stand fundamentally on the gold issue. If you do not, then you are destined to make a significant donation of your fortune in the name of your refusal to do the required homework. I have outlined in the form of editorials and VIP posting all the criteria required for a long-term bull market in gold. You can hear all the contrary opinions on gold simply by going to Tim Wood's web site, www.miningweb.com. He has not yet failed to point out every possible negative factor, thereby serving an important role as the devil's advocate. Of course, one wonders who financially the devil is in Tim's situation. You therefore have both sides of the debate on gold's future. Among www.financialsense.com, www.lemetropolecafe.com and www.miningweb.com you have a wealth of information from which to make informed decisions. Please make the effort and come to a decision, and then adhere to that decision.

As it stands now, the gold market is made up of investors of opportunity, speculators and those that are seeking insurance. The investors of opportunity seem to me to be primarily professional who, because of their experience, are staying ahead of the market successfully. The speculators are being chewed to pieces because they seem undisciplined technically and without commitment fundamentally either bullishly or bearishly. They, the speculators, make up the bulk of those that have come to me in the recent decline in gold and gold-related investments seeking direction or simply unloading emotions. Those of the insurance category seem to me as more mature participants who have the experience of the 1968 to 1980 period behind them and a strong commitment to a positive future for gold.

It is the middle group, the speculators without technical training or fundamental commitment, who need to deeply examine what they are doing and if they are making money. It is this group that I feel have the greatest chance of going broke bullish in a bull market in gold. It is this group that would be well advised to find something they could believe in and stay there. It is this group that had better stop dealing in gold, gold shares, silver and silver shares while they still have some money left. It is this group that no one can help because they will not help themselves. It is this group that have unburdened themselves by heaping burden on me, taking away my time from those that are truly interested in learning, in being disciplined and in making a success of their investment careers not only in gold but in the many areas of future attention. It is this group which appears to me to be terminally at financial risk if they continue what they are doing. It is for this group that I offer only one suggestion: STOP NOW by using gold's strength to leave while you can with financial dignity, for certainly you will panic again and dump your positions at the bottom of a simple reaction.;);)
 
Posted On: Tuesday, November 19, 2002, 6:45:00 PM EST
A Time for Reflection
Author: Jim Sinclair

I believe that I serve this investment community not only in my capacity to impart to you the value of my experience and in hopefully balancing the strong emotions that are common to precious metals trading.


In that capacity, I have been the recipient over the period of September 23 to today of conservatively 2000 emails, the majority of which demonstrated no commitment fundamentally to a potential bull market in gold. I have repeatedly suggested that investment in any field, whether gold, tech, biomeds, bombed-out utilities or whatever, requires first and foremost a strong, well-thought-out fundamental viewpoint. All the technical studies you do will at best break you, even if you have no fundamental understanding and adherence bullish/bearish to the selected field of investment.

It is time that you determine where you stand fundamentally on the gold issue. If you do not, then you are destined to make a significant donation of your fortune in the name of your refusal to do the required homework. I have outlined in the form of editorials and VIP posting all the criteria required for a long-term bull market in gold. You can hear all the contrary opinions on gold simply by going to Tim Wood's web site, www.miningweb.com. He has not yet failed to point out every possible negative factor, thereby serving an important role as the devil's advocate. Of course, one wonders who financially the devil is in Tim's situation. You therefore have both sides of the debate on gold's future. Among www.financialsense.com, www.lemetropolecafe.com and www.miningweb.com you have a wealth of information from which to make informed decisions. Please make the effort and come to a decision, and then adhere to that decision.

As it stands now, the gold market is made up of investors of opportunity, speculators and those that are seeking insurance. The investors of opportunity seem to me to be primarily professional who, because of their experience, are staying ahead of the market successfully. The speculators are being chewed to pieces because they seem undisciplined technically and without commitment fundamentally either bullishly or bearishly. They, the speculators, make up the bulk of those that have come to me in the recent decline in gold and gold-related investments seeking direction or simply unloading emotions. Those of the insurance category seem to me as more mature participants who have the experience of the 1968 to 1980 period behind them and a strong commitment to a positive future for gold.

It is the middle group, the speculators without technical training or fundamental commitment, who need to deeply examine what they are doing and if they are making money. It is this group that I feel have the greatest chance of going broke bullish in a bull market in gold. It is this group that would be well advised to find something they could believe in and stay there. It is this group that had better stop dealing in gold, gold shares, silver and silver shares while they still have some money left. It is this group that no one can help because they will not help themselves. It is this group that have unburdened themselves by heaping burden on me, taking away my time from those that are truly interested in learning, in being disciplined and in making a success of their investment careers not only in gold but in the many areas of future attention. It is this group which appears to me to be terminally at financial risk if they continue what they are doing. It is for this group that I offer only one suggestion: STOP NOW by using gold's strength to leave while you can with financial dignity, for certainly you will panic again and dump your positions at the bottom of a simple reaction.;);)

...and all that meant?
 
Posted On: Tuesday, November 19, 2002, 6:45:00 PM EST
A Time for Reflection
Author: Jim Sinclair

I believe that I serve this investment community not only in my capacity to impart to you the value of my experience and in hopefully balancing the strong emotions that are common to precious metals trading.

Timely post..... :rolleyes: ...
 
Currently Gold has been in a short term bearish move since the high on the 20th of April 2007. If my cycle analysis is correct, Gold should rally up from here, and the cycle termination (up) I am looking at should be either 17 July or 22 August.

The current dominant cycle I perceive in the daily chart is bullish, but the price action recently has been bearish, hence some confusion. My suspicion is that this current move may be a short term counter trend to a bullish cycle which I project should complete around the 17 July (possibly as late as 22 August) before a more sustained pull back in the medium term.

wavepicker has forecast Gold in a downward phase for the longer term cycle before resuming bullishly potentially next year – note though that price action does not necessarily translate neatly into cycles, hence an end of a cycle may actually be a higher low (or lower high) in price, with a time increment in the cycle being where the actual price low (high) occurs.

So, if there is a bullish resumption from last nights bar, I suspect that this will terminate at some point (suspect the termination dates), and either retest the major low (past low dates: 14 June 06 or 04 October 06), or move sideways and base for a while till the cycle wavepicker has identified in the longer term plays out, and the 8.5 year cycle resumes bullishly (assuming this cycle is correct).

But the problem for me is timing, and the current bearish price action looks to me to be the end of a counter trend and may have found support last night. (Please see the chart where I think this may turn to attempt to resume bullishly).

The question is when will Gold find support, and will it be enough to support a bullish leg up? If 30 May does find support, this could be very bullish and a logical place I’d expect to see Gold rally. But it must do so either tonight or Friday night, and this low must hold.

All of this is assuming that the existing cycle I have been using since October 2006 is still valid (and was still valid on 06 May). A lot will depend on the emerging pattern, but I have to say that currently this looks like it is still trying to break up to me to wash out the buyers before moving bearishly to complete the bearish leg of the longer term cycle wavepicker has identified (then of course resume bullishly in the much longer term 8.5 year cycle he has identified).


Key Date: 30 May.
Major Dates: 17 July (completion?), 11 June, 22 August.
Minor Dates: 24 May, 29 June.

That’s what I see currently.


Regards


Magdoran
 

Attachments

  • Gold 31-05-07.jpg
    Gold 31-05-07.jpg
    71.1 KB · Views: 127
Some strange things continue to happen to gold. Here's one for the conspiracy brigade.
This comment is from Peter Grandich, via Kitco, so could have a bias towards gold, but the alignment of selling pressure at about the same time every day is highly correlated.

It’s also been absolutely hammered – not only by aggressive central bank selling, but by a continuing pattern of strange selling on the Comex that almost always is concentrated around the 11 a.m. time frame. The fact that this is when most of the physical buying worldwide shuts down until later in the evening in Asia is no coincidence.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/grandich/may292007.html

I have placed sell arrows at the same time every day on the chart; apart from about 3 instances, there is a pronounced dip in the gold price soon after.
 

Attachments

  • Gold1hr.png
    Gold1hr.png
    17.9 KB · Views: 118
Currently Gold has been in a short term bearish move since the high on the 20th of April 2007. If my cycle analysis is correct, Gold should rally up from here, and the cycle termination (up) I am looking at should be either 17 July or 22 August.

The current dominant cycle I perceive in the daily chart is bullish, but the price action recently has been bearish, hence some confusion. My suspicion is that this current move may be a short term counter trend to a bullish cycle which I project should complete around the 17 July (possibly as late as 22 August) before a more sustained pull back in the medium term.

wavepicker has forecast Gold in a downward phase for the longer term cycle before resuming bullishly potentially next year – note though that price action does not necessarily translate neatly into cycles, hence an end of a cycle may actually be a higher low (or lower high) in price, with a time increment in the cycle being where the actual price low (high) occurs.

So, if there is a bullish resumption from last nights bar, I suspect that this will terminate at some point (suspect the termination dates), and either retest the major low (past low dates: 14 June 06 or 04 October 06), or move sideways and base for a while till the cycle wavepicker has identified in the longer term plays out, and the 8.5 year cycle resumes bullishly (assuming this cycle is correct).

But the problem for me is timing, and the current bearish price action looks to me to be the end of a counter trend and may have found support last night. (Please see the chart where I think this may turn to attempt to resume bullishly).

The question is when will Gold find support, and will it be enough to support a bullish leg up? If 30 May does find support, this could be very bullish and a logical place I’d expect to see Gold rally. But it must do so either tonight or Friday night, and this low must hold.

All of this is assuming that the existing cycle I have been using since October 2006 is still valid (and was still valid on 06 May). A lot will depend on the emerging pattern, but I have to say that currently this looks like it is still trying to break up to me to wash out the buyers before moving bearishly to complete the bearish leg of the longer term cycle wavepicker has identified (then of course resume bullishly in the much longer term 8.5 year cycle he has identified).




That’s what I see currently.


Regards


Magdoran

Mag that was a thing of beauty! and I am very happy to see one of your charts with you thoughts attached. Great stuff Mag!


I am still overall bullish on gold i still see this ascending triangle in tact and i am waiting very calmly to see it break and hold over 690 then i will be in hooks and all!
 
Some strange things continue to happen to gold. Here's one for the conspiracy brigade.
This comment is from Peter Grandich, via Kitco, so could have a bias towards gold, but the alignment of selling pressure at about the same time every day is highly correlated.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/grandich/may292007.html

I have placed sell arrows at the same time every day on the chart; apart from about 3 instances, there is a pronounced dip in the gold price soon after.

Amazing UF, have you tried a short or two?

Nice charts Mag...always good to see your work.

Cheers,
 
Some strange things continue to happen to gold. Here's one for the conspiracy brigade.
This comment is from Peter Grandich, via Kitco, so could have a bias towards gold, but the alignment of selling pressure at about the same time every day is highly correlated.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/grandich/may292007.html

I have placed sell arrows at the same time every day on the chart; apart from about 3 instances, there is a pronounced dip in the gold price soon after.

I don't think there is any conspiracy, we have got some central banks, ie Spain dumping gold on the market at the moment, which is going to suppress the Gold price for a while...
 
Could be a small positive .

New demand for gold from diesel engine pollution control catalysts
Gold-containing exhaust emission control catalysts could provide an excellent opportunity for the gold industry. Tri-metal catalyst can outperform platinum-palladium combinations and save costs.

Author: Tessa Kruger
Posted: Thursday , 31 May 2007

JOHANNESBURG -

A new demand stream for gold could be created if recently unveiled gold-containing catalysts are applied to control diesel vehicle pollution.

Dr Richard Holliday of the World Gold Council told Mineweb that if gold became a player in the autocatalyst market for precious metals, it could be a very useful new source of demand for the metal.

The likely loadings of gold on the catalyst or the range of applications it will be used in is not know yet. But annual demand for platinum group metals in car catalysts exceeding 250 tonnes a year is some indication.

Holland said the gold industry should see this first introduction of a gold-containing catalyst for use in diesel vehicle oxidation as an excellent opportunity to create a new demand stream for gold.

Nanostellar, described as a leader in nano-engineered catalyst materials, introduced gold as an oxidation catalyst in diesel emissions technology for the first time in April this year.

It announced a gold or tri-metal catalyst (platinum, palladium, gold) that enables manufacturers of light- and heavy-duty diesel engines to reduce harmful emissions up to 40% more than existing platinum-palladium catalysts at equal cost

Its first generation product, based on a platinum and palladium alloy, introduced in 2006, achieved a 25-30% higher performance than commercial pure platinum catalysts. And the second generation product, the gold containing catalyst, delivers a further 15-20% increase in performance.

Platinum is the most expensive component of the diesel oxidation catalysts required to meet the new, stringent emissions regulations for light-duty and heavy-duty diesel vehicles produced worldwide.

Therefore, producers of catalyst materials have introduced the use of palladium to partially replace the more expensive platinum. Now gold - about half the price of platinum - is being pioneered to further reduce the amount of platinum needed as well as the overall cost of catalysts.

The tri-metal formulation of gold, platinum and palladium in diesel catalysts allows the proportions of each metal to be adjusted to meet engine-specific performance targets and to stabilise the overall cost - despite fluctuations in the price of precious metals.

The catalyst does not only improve on the performance of mixed platinum and palladium catalysts, but can also be more easily tuned to the characteristics of a variety of diesel engines, according to Nanostellar.

Holland added that although car manufacturers are often conservative in changing from one technology to another, the potential of cost saving would certainly act as a major enticement.



cheers
 
Top