Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Magdoran]

this is looking promising!

long on gold now

Just watch out for a brief pull back to make a higher low (assuming there will be a bullish drive as outlined). This is where I’d be looking to go long for a swing trade rather than a very short term play.

Maybe Gold rallies right up hard from here, but I’d be more inclined to see at least some king of ABC structure at minimum, or even a double zig zag perhaps, hence you could look to position for a long on a pull back, and set a stop below the 30 May low (it is possible to spike below this, and resume bullishly so watch out for that kind of price action - also note the key dates listed, this may give some indication of probabilities depending on the way gold trades into these dates, and the emerging pattern of trend).


Regards


Magdoran

P.S Please ignore my EW count, still working on this, and not happy with it so far... Mag

 

[CanOz]

I thought i would attach the COT gold chart for interest. Notice how the commercials were thinning out thier short positions as the price came down.

Whats also interesting is that according to this graph, the commericals have never been long on gold unlike other COT graphs were at times the've been on both sides of the trades. I wonder why?

Cheers,

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Just watch out for a brief pull back to make a higher low (assuming there will be a bullish drive as outlined). This is where I’d be looking to go long for a swing trade rather than a very short term play.

Maybe Gold rallies right up hard from here, but I’d be more inclined to see at least some king of ABC structure at minimum, or even a double zig zag perhaps, hence you could look to position for a long on a pull back, and set a stop below the 30 May low (it is possible to spike below this, and resume bullishly so watch out for that kind of price action - also note the key dates listed, this may give some indication of probabilities depending on the way gold trades into these dates, and the emerging pattern of trend).


Regards


Magdoran

P.S Please ignore my EW count, still working on this, and not happy with it so far... Mag

agree with you mag,

due to my entry price of 656 i only opened two minis as i also think there could be a pull back. as long as it stays true i will look to add.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I thought i would attach the COT gold chart for interest. Notice how the commercials were thinning out thier short positions as the price came down.

Whats also interesting is that according to this graph, the commericals have never been long on gold unlike other COT graphs were at times the've been on both sides of the trades. I wonder why?

Cheers,

Can is that saying long or short or waiting?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

my entry price of 656.

Correction, I entered at $665 not $656.

 

[CanOz]

Can is that saying long or short or waiting?

It just means that the commercials (the so called "smart" money)have reduced thier short positions....just something to watch and see how it works with the price...who knows with gold.

Cheers,

 

[bean]

COT's in gold and silver read interesting
http://http://www.investmentrarities.com/05-22-07.html

http://http://www.investmentrarities.com/05-29-07.html

 

[>Apocalypto<]

It just means that the commercials (the so called "smart" money)have reduced thier short positions....just something to watch and see how it works with the price...who knows with gold.

Cheers,

Cheers Can,

That add's more support to what I am seeing on the chart, looks like there just waiting for confirmation.

how is your system coming along buddy?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

well........

what a night US dollar made a return to the spot light. stopped on that trade, but its still above its trend line.

looking for another bounce.

 

[bean]

With the US Markets falling and Gold and US Gold indexes droping (Gold Indexes have drop 4 nights in a row) More than likely a bounce tonight?
US Gold Indexes are breaking down and dropping below various moving averages

Will there be a test of US$ 650 on Monday or tuesday night?

 

[Magdoran]

The next time increment for Gold is 11 June (Monday night). If gold moves down into this date, and the 650.84 price holds, this would indicate a bullish probability (there are no certainties here, the whole bearish drive from April may well continue here, that is certainly possible).

The rally I called requires that a higher low is made. As expected, gold found resistance and has pulled back. This may be a long opportunity given that there is a precise time and price point. If this is invalidated (broken to the downside), then a strong bearish move becomes quite probable.

If gold rallies into 11 June, this may represent RESISTANCE in time, which may slow or halt any bullish attempts.

Hence we have a picture of where Gold will indicate a probability – How it trades into the 11th June will indicate where gold is likely to go – if the 11th holds = Bullish, 11th invalidated = bearish. Based on my cycle work, I will maintain a bullish view in the daily chart until the pattern is invalidated.

It is of course possible a sideways pattern may eventuate for a short period if this is the termination of a smaller degree wave 4 in progress (wavepicker???).

Regards


Magdoran

 

[wavepicker]

The next time increment for Gold is 11 June (Monday night). If gold moves down into this date, and the 650.84 price holds, this would indicate a bullish probability (there are no certainties here, the whole bearish drive from April may well continue here, that is certainly possible).

The rally I called requires that a higher low is made. As expected, gold found resistance and has pulled back. This may be a long opportunity given that there is a precise time and price point. If this is invalidated (broken to the downside), then a strong bearish move becomes quite probable.

If gold rallies into 11 June, this may represent RESISTANCE in time, which may slow or halt any bullish attempts.

Hence we have a picture of where Gold will indicate a probability – How it trades into the 11th June will indicate where gold is likely to go – if the 11th holds = Bullish, 11th invalidated = bearish. Based on my cycle work, I will maintain a bullish view in the daily chart until the pattern is invalidated.

It is of course possible a sideways pattern may eventuate for a short period if this is the termination of a smaller degree wave 4 in progress (wavepicker???).

Regards


Magdoran

Mag,

Have a look at the USD Index, specifically the decline since the (92.53) 14 Nov 2005 high. The decline down has been very much a struggling tend, it's a classic Ending Diagonal pattern under EW parlance(The market is finding it very very hard to go down). What is so convincing about this pattern is that it appears to be a accompanied by a 5th wave failure. The combination of both these is bullish for the dollar with a sharp upward thrust that will start very soon if not already. What will this mean for Gold?? Well that is difficult, but at the very least it may mean a continuation of the nett sideways move that started in April last year, at least until the 8.5 year cycle bottoms out in 2008/9.

If more importance however is that if the USD does rally from here which I think it will, then commodities will be doing it tough, So the commodity perma bulls will hav eto do some real hard thinking in the years to come.

Just on ED patterns in general, I must say that I have not seen so many so many of these patterns than what is evident in ASX200 stocks now

Cheers

 

[chops_a_must]

If more importance however is that if the USD does rally from here which I think it will, then commodities will be doing it tough, So the commodity perma bulls will hav eto do some real hard thinking in the years to come.

Conversely, if the USD does rally, the shine for currenices like the AUD (which its run is due in part to USD weakness) will come off... thereby increasing the worth of commodities to Australian based resource companies.

Just on ED patterns in general, I must say that I have not seen so many so many of these patterns than what is evident in ASX200 stocks now

Cheers

And to be fair, you said the same thing last time the market tanked.

However, I don't have any longs on my paper traded market weighters. "Shorts" on CSL and MBL look to have been the most profitable. CSL looks like it might be quite interesting for someone like yourself. Appears to have just finished a W5.

Cheers,
Chops.

 

[bean]

Conversely, if the USD does rally, the shine for currenices like the AUD (which its run is due in part to USD weakness) will come off... thereby increasing the worth of commodities to Australian based resource companies.

Cheers,
Chops.

True and false the $ will be rising because not interest rate cuts or not as many as people would expect. But the US economy is slowing and a rising $ there will slow expansion. Most of the DOW stocks there profits have been due to a weak US $. there housing market is a mess and well rising interest rates, If the market corrects severely everything will be hit including commodities that will offset any movement in the $.
All shares will drop NO PRISONERS

 

[BlueDaze]

Don Coxe - Inflation Is Back, Buy Gold

Key points:
- Gold was down due to weakeness in German GDP and Yen
- Bonds have started a bear market
- Pressure of supply side driven food inflation will force higher interest rates
- Recommendation is still to buy gold

http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0002/code/eventframe.asp

 

[wavepicker]

Conversely, if the USD does rally, the shine for currenices like the AUD (which its run is due in part to USD weakness) will come off... thereby increasing the worth of commodities to Australian based resource companies.

Theoretically and logically what you say is true. But expecting what is fundementally logical in the market is big mistake sometimes. Historically commodities such as the metals have not done as spectacular when the USD firms

And to be fair, you said the same thing last time the market tanked.
However, I don't have any longs on my paper traded market weighters. "Shorts" on CSL and MBL look to have been the most profitable. CSL looks like it might be quite interesting for someone like yourself. Appears to have just finished a W5.

Yes I did say that chops, and the market did tank thereafter albeit briefly, because it was just plain obvious, it was looking at you straight in the face.

As for the stocks, I don't trade them except on very rare occasions when I see something that standsout. I prefer to tinker with the indexes and especially FX markets where we have more volatility.

 

[bean]

With the US Markets falling and Gold and US Gold indexes droping (Gold Indexes have drop 4 nights in a row) More than likely a bounce tonight?
US Gold Indexes are breaking down and dropping below various moving averages

Will there be a test of US$ 650 on Monday or tuesday night?

US Gold Indexes broke down last week I had a false breakout bought and sold.

Well we had a test up Monday and test down Tuesday and the trend is now in place.
Long Termhttp://http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1181660400.php

however we will test US$540 soon (June???)

US Markets bears are in control. and well if price of Gold to drop 20%
I reckon US Markets will drop ??%
And the next few days if the US Markets drop expect the % of drop to be increasing

 

[Boyou]

Some (long range) positive news for Gold.From Yesterday's edition of The Daily Reckoner

--The emergence of Sovereign Wealth Funds could be good news for gold.
ScotiaMacotta, the bullion division of the Bank of Nova Scotia, issued a new
report predicting an increase in investment demand for precious metals,
especially gold.

--The bank wrote that, "Going forward, it looks as though interest across the
commodities is picking up again and this should see a renewed interest in
gold, especially as the fundamentals for the metal remain broadly supported.
In addition, the dynamics of sovereign reserves seems to be changing and
these could have fear-reaching implications for the dollar, all of which
could be bullish for gold."

--A pickup in investment demand would be a relief for the gold price.
Holdings of bullion by gold ETFs actually declined in April from 651 million
tonnes to 635 million tonnes. After the initial loading up, institutions had
their fill and have backed off.
.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

US Markets bears are in control. and well if price of Gold to drop 20%
I reckon US Markets will drop ??%
And the next few days if the US Markets drop expect the % of drop to be increasing[/QUOTE]


Not any more there not Bean there was a obvious line of support drawn by the bulls and I am in.

Like I thought US rose again last night. I see a retrace coming and that will confirm this new break out or retest support, In my view the bulls are just about back in command.

Gold has had the US$ to deal with but still hanging in there Magdoran was very right in his call of zig zag movement which is what its doing.

WELL DONE Mag!

right now I can't be bearish or bullish on Gold it's a real patience required!

the only other outside force starting to brew is Black Gold looking more and more bullish which is good and bad I spose!

 

[Sean K]

1040 [Dow Jones] Spot gold will need physical demand to keep prices above $640-$645/oz following news of Swiss National Bank gold sales, and amid general shift to higher-yielding assets, says Kitco analyst Jon Nadler; recent high gold prices have prompted Spain, Belgium, a few other central banks to sell to realign reserves as rising gold price implies growing percentage of reserves in gold, and Nadler says funds now also starting to sell to realign holdings. For now, "gold's 'sterile' character (no yields, no dividends) remains unappealing in a rising rate environment." Spot gold last at $652.80, +$1.20 vs late NY. (EFB)