Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[frugal.rock]

Gold bugs who detect for gold are quite cynical about large gold nuggets that appear to jump out of the ground just in time for folk to go out and buy a Minelab detector all in time for the start of the detecting season and Easter. It's a perrenial seasonal thing.

Always prominently displayed out of your favourite mainstream media sphincter.

Oh, I'm here really as it looks like it's risk on again, so out of the ole rabbit hole they come dumping gold.

 

[ducati916]

Good graphs Thanks.

China knows when to buy Gold.

Just a number of observations in and outside your post @ducati916

1. Both Japan and China are looking at blockchain and stablecoin government run.
2. The recent push towards $USD2000 has been due to short covering not intrinsic demand.
3. Nobody really knows where the Fed and other Governments are going with interest rates.
4. The demand for Gold long is less than it was last time Gold tried to breach $USD2000.

So it remains interesting for Gold bugs as to where it is going. As I've said before I'm a buyer at less than USD1840. This is complicated by my cash being in $AUD but I find it distracting to follow $AUD price. Perhaps I'm wrong?

gg

Mr GG;

Re. your points 2 and 4.

The current gold price is driven and supported by Central Bank buying and populations in India/China who hold gold as a store of wealth.



Western wealth management (from chart) disdain gold. If that were to change, the resulting run to gold would (likely) push the paper price past JP Morgan's ability to suppress the PP.

The East, far from backing off are upping the stakes and accelerating de-dollarisation:



jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Mr GG;

Re. your points 2 and 4.

The current gold price is driven and supported by Central Bank buying and populations in India/China who hold gold as a store of wealth.

View attachment 155142

Western wealth management (from chart) disdain gold. If that were to change, the resulting run to gold would (likely) push the paper price past JP Morgan's ability to suppress the PP.

The East, far from backing off are upping the stakes and accelerating de-dollarisation:

View attachment 155146View attachment 155147

jog on
duc

Thanks @ducati916

Exactly my thoughts and my previous post Point 1. was in relation to the imminence of State backed stablecoins in China, Japan and what is left of Russia.

These will obliterate bitcoin once the West takes them up.

Jog on past my Arnage.

gg

 

[DrBourse]

Gold is stuck within the current Benchmark Candle Formation - the SP needs 2 Green Candles to close above 1988 for 2 consecutive days before a ST breakout could be called....
View attachment 155120

DrB

Sorry Folks - My explanation for a Breakout from a Benchmark Candle Formation was a bit too simplistic - SO - I will now expand on that explanation.....

I said in my last post that "the SP needs 2 Green Candles to close above 1988 for 2 consecutive days before a ST breakout could be called"....

The Correct explanation is as follows:-

A Bullish ST Breakout from a Benchmark Candle Formation is when there are 2 consecutive Green Candles wholly ABOVE the Top Benchmark Candle Formation Line, that is, OHL&C all ABOVE that Top Line - Then there needs to be confirmation from other Indicators, in my case I use the CCI & the MFI....
AND....
A Bearish ST Breakout from a Benchmark Candle Formation is when there are 2 consecutive Red Candles wholly BELOW the Bottom Benchmark Candle Formation Line, that is, OHL&C all BELOW that Bottom Line - Then there needs to be confirmation from other Indicators, in my case I use the CCI & the MFI....
THEN.....
If the SP re-enters the Benchmark Candle Formation the entire process begins again....

Sorry Bout that - still working on finishing my 2nd Manual, got a bit lost yesty and Stu##ed up a few things.....
Gunna hafta hire a Proof Reader.

Cheers...
DrB

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Historically POG has performed to disaster and geopolitical unrest.

Guess I'll just keep posting this chart forever...

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Guess I'll just keep posting this chart forever...

View attachment 155168

No argument on if.

The question is when.

gg

 

[rcw1]

Gold is good. Don't mind at all the gold price dilly dallying around that US $1980 ... so long as it decides to break on through .... on a due north compass bearing ha ha ha ha ha ha
Have a good weekend folks.


Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Sean K]

This looks interesting.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Far be it from me to be a harbinger of doom but the chart of Gold looks decidedly like a head and shoulders formation.

Interesting commodity to track and trade as always.

I'll be back in below $USD1840.



gg

 

[eskys]

If I were short, I'll be watching so that it doesn't get too far away from me (in case gold decides to head north)

 

[mullokintyre]

Coming into the weekend, I reckon the PPT will kill off this little gold flight tonight.
I f some of my small goldie holdings take off today, I will take some profits.
The paper tigers will triumph again.
Mick

 

[ducati916]

What you need to understand is that gold's fundamentals have changed:

The issue with gold to date has been its stock-to-flow ratio. It is high. Which allows a paper price dilution. When it is a low ratio, like oil, a paper price manipulation is fundamentally impossible.

Of course, now that Mr Putin has linked gold to oil, gold will mimic the lower ratio of oil. This is still in the transition stage, but as more actors (governments) come on board (Arabs) the faster this process will move.


And for you BTC fanatics:



When BTC is no longer politically attractive, oh dear. There are already BTC futures, ETFs, the ground is prepared.

Could BTC become a settlement asset like gold. In theory yes. Will it? An altogether far more difficult question to answer. Culturally, BTC is not really loved by the oil producing nations. After the US weaponised the USD and added sanctions to Russia, trust in US centric financial assets sank to new all time lows. BTC will feel those repercussions. Add in the amount of energy required to keep the miners going and upkeep the blockchain...uneconomic compared to gold.

POO and POG are joined at the hip now.

jog on
duc

 

[eskys]

Coming into the weekend, I reckon the PPT will kill off this little gold flight tonight.
I f some of my small goldie holdings take off today, I will take some profits.
The paper tigers will triumph again.
Mick

I haven't gone broke taking profits....hasn't happened yet. All the best, Mick....I'm logging out now, back to work.

 

[mullokintyre]

What you need to understand is that gold's fundamentals have changed:

The issue with gold to date has been its stock-to-flow ratio. It is high. Which allows a paper price dilution. When it is a low ratio, like oil, a paper price manipulation is fundamentally impossible.

Of course, now that Mr Putin has linked gold to oil, gold will mimic the lower ratio of oil. This is still in the transition stage, but as more actors (governments) come on board (Arabs) the faster this process will move.View attachment 155205
View attachment 155204

And for you BTC fanatics:

View attachment 155206

When BTC is no longer politically attractive, oh dear. There are already BTC futures, ETFs, the ground is prepared.

Could BTC become a settlement asset like gold. In theory yes. Will it? An altogether far more difficult question to answer. Culturally, BTC is not really loved by the oil producing nations. After the US weaponised the USD and added sanctions to Russia, trust in US centric financial assets sank to new all time lows. BTC will feel those repercussions. Add in the amount of energy required to keep the miners going and upkeep the blockchain...uneconomic compared to gold.

POO and POG are joined at the hip now.

jog on
duc

Have no argument with that medium to long term scenario.
Until that scenario plays out, the paper tigers will still manipulate in the short term.
The weekend is pretty short term for me.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

USD POG still in the pennant. Heads it drops out, tails it jumps up. Ouch, heads... I'm not very good at two-up though, so still a chance.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

USD POG still in the pennant. Heads it drops out, tails it jumps up. Ouch, heads... I'm not very good at two-up though, so still a chance.

View attachment 155251

@Sean K , you have to ask yourself how many people you know are buying Gold atm at these prices given that the geopolitical situation remains basically unchanged and has been worse.

One is always looking about for bigger fools to buy at higher prices than one buys, and I cannot see those fools about presently.

I can understand holders holding.

But not buyers buying.

It may change.



gg

 

[Sean K]

@Sean K , you have to ask yourself how many people you know are buying Gold atm at these prices given that the geopolitical situation remains basically unchanged and has been worse.

One is always looking about for bigger fools to buy at higher prices than one buys, and I cannot see those fools about presently.

I can understand holders holding.

But not buyers buying.

It may change.

View attachment 155254

gg

Central Banks and our Indian and Chinese second cousins like it for some reason. I stopped buying PM Kangaroos at $2800.

For institutions, I think if it breaks up there will be FOMO to some degree. They won't want to miss the next leg up, a 2019-20 like $800 run.

 

[Sean K]

Central Banks and our Indian and Chinese second cousins like it for some reason. I stopped buying PM Kangaroos at $2800.

For institutions, I think if it breaks up there will be FOMO to some degree. They won't want to miss the next leg up, a 2019-20 like $800 run.

Or, even better, a 2005-2011 run...

 

[Telamelo]

@Sean K , you have to ask yourself how many people you know are buying Gold atm at these prices given that the geopolitical situation remains basically unchanged and has been worse.

One is always looking about for bigger fools to buy at higher prices than one buys, and I cannot see those fools about presently.

I can understand holders holding.

But not buyers buying.

It may change.

View attachment 155254

gg

With all due respect mate.. can tell you now I think/believe that Gold going higher - much much higher imo & it could potentially happen suddenly like over a weekend.

Ukraine conflict/tensions getting worse as Finland (has 1300km border with Russia) joining NATO. Russia sending 800 nukes/missiles into Belarus as a counter measure - at some point in time this war will escalate significantly imo & spread rapidly.

Watch financial market's & the US dollar crumble when that happens and Gold rocket much higher! imo
(the US has extreme debt levels & on the verge of bankruptcy & reason why needed to do a $368 billion submarine deal with Australia to stay afloat imo).

 

[Telamelo]

Gold discussed from 10:50 onwards - bullish verdict is the outcome at this stage