Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Sean K]

My Kangaroos have jumped the fence along with PMGOLD long term.

It's a shame our ASX AUD gold equities aren't following suite, but that's the nature of the beast I suppose.

 

[eskys]

My Kangaroos have jumped the fence along with PMGOLD long term.

It's a shame our ASX AUD gold equities aren't following suite, but that's the nature of the beast I suppose.

View attachment 154991

Your kangaroos are on the fence, Sean

 

[DaveTrade]

Looking at a weekly chart to see the big picture of the support and resistance zones, it can be seen that GLD has reached a wide zone of resistance and it seems to be reacting to it.



Looking at the daily chart it can be seen that this move up is strong, on big upside volume, so this is an indication that big players are moving into Gold. This reaction has more to do with the US Dollar than it has with the demand for Gold so I think that we may see more of a reaction or a bit of sideways movement but any pullback here will be what the big money is waiting for to buy more.

 

[Telamelo]

$240k gold nugget found in Victoria​

'The wife is going to be happy': $240,000 gold nugget found

www.9news.com.au

 

[Dona Ferentes]

$240k gold nugget found in Victoria​

'The wife is going to be happy': $240,000 gold nugget found

www.9news.com.au

Codan thread, too

 

[finicky]

"The wife's going to be happy with that"
Jeehzus when do these married simps wake up. Who found it? If she got off the cream cakes and the day t.v and swung a pick in the bush do you think she'd be saying, "hubby'll be happy"?
And he found it with a cheaper Equinox. Top of the line GPZ 7000 for almost 10 grand is claimed to go 40% deeper with much greater sensitivity and discrimination than its predecessor GPX and the GPX is better than an Equinox. He could invest now in a GPZ7000 and see what else is there.

 

[finicky]

 

[mullokintyre]

$240k gold nugget found in Victoria​

'The wife is going to be happy': $240,000 gold nugget found

www.9news.com.au

Damn, I lost one over near St Arnaud a few years back. I wonder if could be mine?
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Well, looks like $2000-75 is the USD Great Wall of Gold Price, never to be breached. How many times can it run up to that level and retreat before gold bugs give up? Maybe there needs to be a shake out with a significant price drop so a bunch of new players get on board and can will it through. Or, does it take another crisis and major shift from instos to move out of general equities to PMs? Can there be a bigger crisis than Covid, war in Europe, rapid inflation, interest rates and major recession? I watched a Rick Rule video a while ago and he lamented that the total % of investment by the general market in PMs was about 1% when the historical mean was closer to 2.5-3%, so if we just go back to mean it should result in double the current demand and presumably major increase in price. Or, there's a new mean level of investment... Oh well, still holding on and will be adding on the dips.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Not much happening

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Not much happening

Or rather there is not much visibly happening.

Don't expect a move when the Sydney private schoolboys are running the desk. Too much to lose if wrong.

Smoke filled rooms in Moss Cow, Wasn'tun and Pea King will decide the fall or rise in POG imo.

Futures etc. will bounce it around in the meantime.

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Or rather there is not much visibly happening.

Good reply.

My 3 word entry, composed on my phone when out on a walk and without my glasses, was to achieve several goals.
Trivially, to push that stupid Russian market thread off the front page.
Meaningfully, to redirect the conversation away from MSM stereotypical reporting of a nugget find.
Importantly, AUD up a tad and gold down in N.Y.... not indicative of a strong local opening.
Subtextually, it is a quiet period. Lull before the storm, or between waves that are washing over.

Waiting for...
... next bank to buckle, geopolitical realignments, Ukraine counter-offensive success;, many things are bubbling under, as you say.

 

[DannyB0000]

Well, looks like $2000-75 is the USD Great Wall of Gold Price, never to be breached. How many times can it run up to that level and retreat before gold bugs give up? Maybe there needs to be a shake out with a significant price drop so a bunch of new players get on board and can will it through. Or, does it take another crisis and major shift from instos to move out of general equities to PMs? Can there be a bigger crisis than Covid, war in Europe, rapid inflation, interest rates and major recession? I watched a Rick Rule video a while ago and he lamented that the total % of investment by the general market in PMs was about 1% when the historical mean was closer to 2.5-3%, so if we just go back to mean it should result in double the current demand and presumably major increase in price. Or, there's a new mean level of investment... Oh well, still holding on and will be adding on the dips.

Gold needs another crisis to push through 2000 and stay there, maybe central bank stuffing up big time or a hard landing. There isn’t enough fear in the market yet. My NST holding pays dividends so I’ll just be patient and hold.

 

[ducati916]

This chart is the ratio of gold to the Fed's Balance sheet.

And the irony of it:



jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Well, looks like $2000-75 is the USD Great Wall of Gold Price, never to be breached. How many times can it run up to that level and retreat before gold bugs give up? Maybe there needs to be a shake out with a significant price drop so a bunch of new players get on board and can will it through. Or, does it take another crisis and major shift from instos to move out of general equities to PMs? Can there be a bigger crisis than Covid, war in Europe, rapid inflation, interest rates and major recession? I watched a Rick Rule video a while ago and he lamented that the total % of investment by the general market in PMs was about 1% when the historical mean was closer to 2.5-3%, so if we just go back to mean it should result in double the current demand and presumably major increase in price. Or, there's a new mean level of investment... Oh well, still holding on and will be adding on the dips.

Good reply.

My 3 word entry, composed on my phone when out on a walk and without my glasses, was to achieve several goals.
Trivially, to push that stupid Russian market thread off the front page.
Meaningfully, to redirect the conversation away from MSM stereotypical reporting of a nugget find.
Importantly, AUD up a tad and gold down in N.Y.... not indicative of a strong local opening.
Subtextually, it is a quiet period. Lull before the storm, or between waves that are washing over.

Waiting for...
... next bank to buckle, geopolitical realignments, Ukraine counter-offensive success;, many things are bubbling under, as you say.

Gold needs another crisis to push through 2000 and stay there, maybe central bank stuffing up big time or a hard landing. There isn’t enough fear in the market yet. My NST holding pays dividends so I’ll just be patient and hold.

Thanks everyone. I believe these 3 posts encapsulate most non dart throwers feelings on the POG.

Historically POG has performed to disaster and geopolitical unrest.

Surprisingly an imminent world war preceded by the USA manning up against Russia via NATO and the criminal invasion of Ukraine by war crime committing Russia has not pushed POG definitively up towards $USD2500.

The cutting of the Nordstream gasline by Ukraine with the connivance of the USA would have been sufficient to rush Gold buyers in the old days.

Different times.

I still feel much money, as much as $Trillions is in Crypto which should be in Gold. Most old timers doubt the longevity of crypto. Most of the young are fleeing in to it. The Pied Piper of Hamelin leads.

I'm still waiting for a retracement below $USD1840.

gg

 

[ducati916]

Gold is nobodies liability.

BTC relies upon the BTC Miners to maintain and operate the block chain. That is a liability.

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

View attachment 155081

Gold is nobodies liability.

BTC relies upon the BTC Miners to maintain and operate the block chain. That is a liability.

jog on
duc

Good graphs Thanks.

China knows when to buy Gold.

Just a number of observations in and outside your post @ducati916

1. Both Japan and China are looking at blockchain and stablecoin government run.
2. The recent push towards $USD2000 has been due to short covering not intrinsic demand.
3. Nobody really knows where the Fed and other Governments are going with interest rates.
4. The demand for Gold long is less than it was last time Gold tried to breach $USD2000.

So it remains interesting for Gold bugs as to where it is going. As I've said before I'm a buyer at less than USD1840. This is complicated by my cash being in $AUD but I find it distracting to follow $AUD price. Perhaps I'm wrong?

gg

 

[divs4ever]

should have hit up the network for at least 10K for the exclusive interview

( and make some money from the find )

( personally i would have just put in a tin somewhere , really really safe , and told NOBODY )

 

[DrBourse]

Gold is stuck within the current Benchmark Candle Formation - the SP needs 2 Green Candles to close above 1988 for 2 consecutive days before a ST breakout could be called....


DrB

 

[ducati916]

Good graphs Thanks.

China knows when to buy Gold.

Just a number of observations in and outside your post @ducati916

1. Both Japan and China are looking at blockchain and stablecoin government run.
2. The recent push towards $USD2000 has been due to short covering not intrinsic demand.
3. Nobody really knows where the Fed and other Governments are going with interest rates.
4. The demand for Gold long is less than it was last time Gold tried to breach $USD2000.

So it remains interesting for Gold bugs as to where it is going. As I've said before I'm a buyer at less than USD1840. This is complicated by my cash being in $AUD but I find it distracting to follow $AUD price. Perhaps I'm wrong?

gg

Mr GG;

3. Re. interest rates. So if you are a subscriber to 'efficient market theory' then the market is telling you lower:

This is correct based on the fundamentals:



QT is dead and buried. QE is back and never going away. Very inflationary.

Add to that Russia/China driving de-dollarisation, very inflationary for Western currencies that are highly leveraged (debt).

The US is a (highly) deficit driven economy. To hold that economy from imploding, increased levels of debt (inflationary) will be created. The alternative is the Great Depression on steroids.

2. Driven via short covering. That may well be true for the 'paper market'. The paper market is irrelevant. Russia/China are driving de-dollarisation. What is that? That is energy becomes the reserve currency of the world. Transactions are (for energy) settled in (a) goods & services, (b) balance in gold. This goes back to the balance of payments driving currency strength, rather than the printing press backed by military might.

4. Again, in the paper market, maybe. The physical market however is tight and getting tighter. Look at COMEX drain and LBMA drain charts. All moving from the West to the East.

Summary:

To protect wealth, you need to be in physical.

If you want to trade gold, BTC, whatever, fine. But just as in 1968 when inflation collapsed the London Gold Pool, so again will inflation collapse the paper market. When (not if) gold reprices, it will be over a weekend and it will just go from A to Z with no stops in-between. If you are 'short', you will be carried out on your shield. Stops will not save you. This will be the 3'rd time that this has happened.

1. Not sure what you are referring to.

jog on
duc