Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Sean K]

There was a fight between bulls and bears between 9 and 11 last night's morning. Result, draw. No follow through on the break up, but no major profit taking. Stand off. Holding above the psychological $2K looks positive.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

There was a fight between bulls and bears between 9 and 11 last night's morning. Result, draw. No follow through...

I think I know what you mean

 

[mullokintyre]

It is important to look at what CB's actually do rather than worry too much about what they say.
From Schiff gold

There’s no sign of a slowdown in central bank gold buying.

In February, central bank gold reserves rose by another 52 tons, according to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council.

It was the 11th straight month of central bank net gold purchases.

Through the first two months of 2023, net central bank gold purchases came in at 125 tons. This is the strongest start to a year since 2010.

China was the biggest buyer in February. The Peoples Bank of China increased gold holdings by a reported 24.9 tons. It was the fourth consecutive month of reported Chinese gold purchases. In that time, China’s official gold reserves have grown by 102 tons.

The Chinese central bank accumulated 1,448 tons of gold between 2002 and 2019, and then suddenly went silent until it resumed reporting in November 2022. Many speculate that the Chinese continued to add gold to its holdings off the books during those silent years.

There has always been speculation that China holds far more gold than it officially reveals. As Jim Rickards pointed out on Mises Daily back in 2015, many people speculate that China keeps several thousand tons of gold “off the books” in a separate entity called the State Administration for Foreign Exchange (SAFE).

Last year, there were large unreported increases in central bank gold holdings. Central banks that often fail to report purchases include China and Russia. Many analysts believe China is the mystery buyer stockpiling gold to minimize exposure to the dollar.

Turkey continued to pile up gold, adding another 22.5 tons of gold to its hoard in February. The Central Bank of Türkiye was the biggest gold buyer in 2022 and has increased its gold holding for 15 straight months.

Turkey has been battling rampant inflation. Price inflation accelerated to as high as 85% last year and was at 64% in December. The Turkish lira depreciated by almost 30% last year. Meanwhile, the price of gold in lira terms increased by 40% on an annual basis, according to Bloomberg.

After a pause in January, India went back to buying gold in February, adding 2.8 tons to its reserves. India ranks as the ninth largest gold-holding country in the world. Since resuming buying in late 2017, the Reserve Bank of India has purchased over 200 tons of gold. In August 2020, there were reports that the RBI was considering significantly raising its gold reserves. India now holds 790 tons of gold.

After a massive 44.6-ton increase in its gold reserves in January, Singapore continued its buying spree in February with another 6.8-ton purchase.

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan added 8 tons of gold to its reserves, following three consecutive months of sales.

Mexico bought 0.3 tons of gold in February.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan was the only notable seller in February, decreasing its reserves by 13.1 tons. It is not uncommon for banks that buy from domestic production – such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan – to switch between buying and selling.

The Central Bank of Russia disclosed its gold reserves for the first time in over a year, reporting gold holdings of 2,330 tons at the end of February 2023. That was a 31-ton increase since its last report. The timing of the gold purchases remains unclear.

The World Gold Council said it expects net central bank gold buying to continue through 2023. According to the WGC, emerging market banks remain relatively under-allocated to gold.

Overall, we expect further buying, with EM banks at the forefront of this trend as they continue to redress the imbalance in gold allocations with their developed market peers.”
Total central bank gold buying in 2022 came in at 1,136 tons. It was the highest level of net purchases on record dating back to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971. It was the 13th straight year of net central bank gold purchases.

According to the World Gold Council, there are two main drivers behind central bank gold buying — its performance during times of crisis and its role as a long-term store of value.

It’s hardly surprising then that in a year scarred by geopolitical uncertainty and rampant inflation, central banks opted to continue adding gold to their coffers and at an accelerated pace.”
World Gold Council global head of research Juan Carlos Artigas recently told Kitco News that the big purchases underscore the fact that gold remains an important asset in the global monetary system.

Even though gold is not backing currencies anymore, it is still being utilized. Why? Because it is a real asset.

Even as the commercials fiddle with their paper derivitives, CB's are quietly hoarding physical.
Take note.
Mick

 

[DaveTrade]

Lets take a look at what is happening in the gold market at the moment, not what conditions exit that may lead to buying and selling of gold but what buying and selling is actually taking place and how this is affecting the market price. Yes this is sounding like a description of a price chart and yes I'm going to put up a price chart and add an heikin-ashi indicator to clear it up a bit. The one thing to keep in mind when looking at a chart of gold, priced in US$, is that the variation of the US$ is going to affect the price chart to some degree.




So far it still looks bullish to me.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Some might know by now I am not a fan of the Monday morning huge gap move, but I feel like between the news of China doing drills around Taiwan, after US markets closed on Friday and the leak of US documents, there is a strong possibility of one tomorrow morning.

As usual, be wary of moves like that retracing into a more liquid opening session like LBMA or COMEX, or worse, resolving over coming days.

My favourite weekly open is a quiet one or countertrend one.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Looks like my feeling was incorrect and instead we got one of my favourite style opens instead.

 

[Sean K]

A couple more TAs ramping the big arse C&H that's been pointed out for too long. Will it or won't it?...

"Technical analysis is key to understanding what's going on with gold" - Northstar and Badcharts | Kitco News

(Kitco News) - We’re on the verge of massive moves for precious metals, bonds and the stock market, but investors who wait for the economic fundamentals to catch up to price action will miss out, according to technical analysts Patrick Karim and Kevin Wadsworth of NorthstarBadCharts.com.

www.kitco.com

 

[DaveTrade]

A couple more TAs ramping the big arse C&H that's been pointed out for too long. Will it or won't it?...

View attachment 155604

"Technical analysis is key to understanding what's going on with gold" - Northstar and Badcharts | Kitco News

(Kitco News) - We’re on the verge of massive moves for precious metals, bonds and the stock market, but investors who wait for the economic fundamentals to catch up to price action will miss out, according to technical analysts Patrick Karim and Kevin Wadsworth of NorthstarBadCharts.com.

www.kitco.com

There are too many cases of people just making a chart fit into some pattern after the fact. I like to read what the market is doing and if this looks like it is making a pattern then that may give you some levels watch out for.

 

[ducati916]

The fundamentals for gold just continue to improve:



Gold has brought Ghana's inflation rate down significantly in a couple of months.

As the various articles indicate, this trend is set to expand significantly. The UST market will come under ever increasing pressure, particularly now that US Regional banks are tottering. They have been significant buyers of UST for a couple of years now.

This is an expansion of the physical market, not appearing in the paper price currently as JPM as agent for the US Treasury continues to (try and) suppress the paper price.

An audit of Fort Knox would find?

jog on
duc

 

[Sean K]

There are too many cases of people just making a chart fit into some pattern after the fact. I like to read what the market is doing and if this looks like it is making a pattern then that may give you some levels watch out for.

Yeah, but this long term C&H has been noted by lots of players over the past couple of years. It's definitely there.

 

[DaveTrade]

Yeah, but this long term C&H has been noted by lots of players over the past couple of years. It's definitely there.

Yeah I think that I posted one at one point as well but I remember that the handle that I had drawn didn't work out. The thing that I don't like is when people keep redrawing to fit in with the new price action. I think that patterns are more useful when they have more defined rules.

 

[rcw1]

Good evening

Gold plodding along nicely at the moment, for mine. Big of it staying above the US $2000 consistently now for approximately a week. How time goes by.... Good hey.

According to the Office of the Chief Economist, Resources and Energy Quarterly March 2023, some gold trivia for the most curious:



World gold consumption increased in 2022 to an 11-year high. World gold demand increased by 18% year-on-year to 4,740 tonnes in 2022, the highest level since 2011. This increase was driven by record central bank net purchases, which more than offset net outflows from goldbacked exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Official sector buying (central banks and other government financial institutions) increased by 152% year-on-year to a record high of 1,136 tonnes in 2022. Most of these purchases were undeclared, meaning country details are unavailable.

According to World Gold Council data for declared purchases, emerging market central banks accounted for much of the buying. The largest net purchases were reported by Türkiye (148 tonnes) and China (62 tonnes). Egypt and the Middle Eastern countries including Qatar, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates, collectively purchased 138 tonnes over the year.

ETF outflows over the year reached 110 tonnes (US$3 billion) in 2022, as a strong start to the year (driven by rising geopolitical risk) was followed by eight months of consecutive outflows. Rising bond yields— following aggressive interest rate increases from most central banks for much of the year, particularly the US Federal Reserve — caused significant outflows from gold ETFs, and contributed to lower gold prices.

Consumer demand for gold (jewellery, gold coins and bars) was steady in 2022, helping to partially offset strong ETF outflows. Jewellery demand fell by 2.9% year-on-year to 2,086 tonnes in 2022, driven by weaker Chinese
consumption and higher domestic prices for many nations.

Jewellery demand in China was down by 15% year-on-year at 571 tonnes in 2022, 16% below the 10-year average. Chinese demand was affected by COVID-related mobility restrictions throughout the year. Higher domestic gold prices, combined with COVID restrictions in the December quarter 2022, resulted in the weakest December quarter since 2009.

Jewellery consumption in India declined by 1.7% year-on-year to 600 tonnes in 2022. This decline was impressive given high domestic prices, with 2022 consumption still above the 10-year average.

Retail investment in gold bars and coins rose by 2.2% year-on-year in 2022, with investors buying 1,217 tonnes. Demand was helped by surging global inflation, with increased buying from Europe, Russia, Türkiye and the Middle East offsetting weaker demand from India and China.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Sean K]

I'm on the edge of my seat watching gold trying once again for ATHs. ?

What happens once it's through and there's no resistance?

 

[finicky]

I'm on the edge of my seat watching gold trying once again for ATHs. ?

You need to get a life. Try watching T.V like me. Not all at once, start with half hour programmes and build up.

 

[explod]

Aussie gold price now at an all time high.

Nothing on the news as the business sector are scared of the damage that would be reflected.

 

[greggles]

Gold now very close to its all-time high in USD and at its all-time high in AUD. Industrial metals taking a bit of a beating.

The market seems to be anticipating difficult and volatile economic times ahead.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Yeah I think that I posted one at one point as well but I remember that the handle that I had drawn didn't work out. The thing that I don't like is when people keep redrawing to fit in with the new price action. I think that patterns are more useful when they have more defined rules.

With great respect I believe the cup and handle to be a load of old crock.

gg

 

[Sean K]

With great respect I believe the cup and handle to be a load of old crock.

gg

It's a sure thing GG. Death, taxes, and the C&H chart pattern...

 

[Sean K]

The break up from the handle on the GLD monthly close looks very positive.

But, as GG says, this could be old crock. Watched a pro trader TA dude on youtube this am saying $1500 still needed to be hit before a run up. Not sure what that was based on though. But, he's on youtube so must be right.

 

[Tyre Kicker]

I won’t be waiting around for $1500 to be hit.