Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Trembling Hand]

The Dow is down 500 pts in 2 days - no change in margins?? What's the bet they reduce margins for equites if it starts to get messy?

You really have no idea about whats going on do you?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

You really have no idea about whats going on do you?

And you do? Please enlighten us then.

 

[Trembling Hand]

And you do? Please enlighten us then.

Well since you are the expert along with Explode I thought you would know how they set margin on all futs. Clearly your inference that its a conspiracy shows again the gold bugs know little about there own investment.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Well since you are the expert along with Explode I thought you would know how they set margin on all futs. Clearly your inference that its a conspiracy shows again the gold bugs know little about there own investment.

Well that is nice of you to afford the title of 'expert' to Explod & I. I think age & experience will always do better than youthful exuberance & selective ignorance?ld:

Well did they or didn't they raise the initial margin 25% last week?

Speculative investors in the benchmark 100-troy ounce gold contract must now put up a deposit of $8,800 to open a position and maintain $8,000 of that to keep that position overnight. That's up from previous initial margin of $7,040, and maintenance margin of $6,400.

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/cme-g...-gold-futures-25-20130620-00934#ixzz2X6gBbUG5

Conversely, from your logic, it can be inferred that you think that gold trading on the CME and others is fair & transparent? You'd be in good company as so does this bloke :chimney

<their own investment>

 

[Trembling Hand]

Well did they or didn't they raise the initial margin 25% last week?

I'm not disputing that. I'm disputing the ridiculous inference from you that its a conspiracy.

Why did it change?

 

[skyQuake]

I'm not disputing that. I'm disputing the ridiculous inference from you that its a conspiracy.

Why did it change?

To squeeze out leveraged longs of course!

 

[sinner]

To squeeze out leveraged longs of course!

But...but...isn't it the shorts who are leveraged and trading on margin in the futures markets?

Longs only buy shares in crappy ASX mining juniors and silver coins, never the actual gold.

 

[Ann]

Well that is nice of you to afford the title of 'expert' to Explod & I. I think age & experience will always do better than youthful exuberance & selective ignorance?ld:
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/cme-g...-gold-futures-25-20130620-00934#ixzz2X6gBbUG5

That is a darn interesting site, never even considered info from that direction! Nasdaq Eeeuuuuwww! Now I know why I hang out on places like this! It is people like you Unc who expand my knowledge! :thankyou:

 

[chops_a_must]

And how about a good dessertation on the points considered to be the rants in the article presented.

Sounds like a delicious read!

 

[skyQuake]

Margins are set by volatility.

This factsheet covers it:
http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/files/cme-clearing-margins-quick-facts-2011.pdf



Feb 2012 Initial margins were $8250, by may it was $7425, feb this year $5940.

http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/risk-management/files/GC_2009_to_present.pdf

The recent increase is still pretty low in terms of historic margins

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Back on topic, imo today is a swing low. Aus rallied hard on Fri, but certain rebals distorted golds o/n in the US. Aus took that as a sign that everything is going to hell and washed out.

 

[Joules MM1]

due a bounce.....least ways another cupla weeks of sideways pricing as is typical in the current donwtrend

and if you like your long-winded bear markets, howzabout this one:

 

[Joules MM1]

you know we're due a bounce when the mail box suddenly clogs up with experts....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxeYM8Q9VJk&feature=youtu.be

 

[explod]

Well since you are the expert along with Explode I thought you would know how they set margin on all futs. Clearly your inference that its a conspiracy shows again the gold bugs know little about there own investment.

Yep, certainly grateful for the thoughts also. Sadly though there is plenty of ex but no spurt for the crackers. And these foots margins and shorts are just too much for an old gold bug. And paper burns which is an environmental concern in my very humble view.

Did u happen to see the recent exhibition on the Wiemer Republic Art. Money went down 2000% against the US$ in one month just before the 29 crash.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Comments to be expected when few realise that the paper price of gold due to derivatives and paper notes on leased gold of up to 100/1

How about you stop talking about this and show what you mean with real data??

Hey Explod got any data to prove this yet..........

 

[explod]

Hey Explod got any data to prove this yet..........

I have just intimated it is too much for this ole bug. But when they can paper trade almost a years production, as happened a couple of times recently the ratio of 100 paper to one physical as referred to by some comentators must be close to the mark.

However with your great knowledge of the super fast computer paper trading of gold you can surely paint the picture clearly for us ole t..ds

 

[Trembling Hand]

I have just intimated it is too much for this ole bug. But when they can paper trade almost a years production, as happened a couple of times recently the ratio of 100 paper to one physical as referred to by some comentators must be close to the mark.

BS like the rest of your info.

 

[explod]

BS like the rest of your info.

Now that sort of an answer is rubbish.

How about your take on the physical gold to paper ratio?

I would like to be corrected properly with substance for the benefit of all of us who may be missled.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Current open interest which has been about the same give or take a good chunk for the last 5 years is 226,272.

Thats 22 mil oz.

How is that, as you keep saying, 100 times??

From wiki,

At the end of 2009, it was estimated that all the gold ever mined totaled 165,000 tonnes.[2] This can be represented by a cube with an edge length of about 20.28 meters. At $1,600 per ounce,[clarification needed] 165,000 metric tonnes of gold would have a value of $8.8 trillion.
World production for 2011 was at 2,700 tonnes, compared to 2,260 tonnes for 2008.
Since the 1880s, South Africa has been the source for a large proportion of the world's gold supply, with about 50% of all gold ever produced having come from South Africa. Production in 1970 accounted for 79% of the world supply, producing about 1,480 tonnes. In 2007 China (with 276 tonnes) overtook South Africa as the world's largest gold producer, the first time since 1905 that South Africa has not been the largest.[77]

from my calculations thats only 800 tonnnes

 

[CanOz]

Must be worries about gold bugs...

(IN) India Central Bank (RBI) restricts loans against gold ETFs and gold mutual funds - Source TradeTheNews.com

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Perhaps sometimes you can be wrong about why you like something but still be right in the end?

There's been a lot of damage to the leveraged (and not so) players in interest rate world and are now finding that there's no free lunch anymore? Margin call contagon?

Conspiracies? Basically no one has turned up to bid....but some(?) is accumulating (early money?) while ETF's (retail?) are dumping?

Bullion Banks are now Bullion Bugs - or killing the goose that lays the golden egg?



Wheres the value - no bull? Poor NCM......



Monday will be interesting...........