Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Joules MM1]

if you are an "investor" there are some compelling reasons to read this link for your own well being:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-26/gold-drops-below-its-average-cash-cost


--------------------------------------------

of course, the question is who is soaking up that selling? mostly it'll be the large commercials....even so, price can gap and fall on low volume, so waiting for price to swing to exit at a better price might not work either....the train has left the station

 

[CanOz]

if you are an "investor" there are some compelling reasons to read this link for your own well being:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-26/gold-drops-below-its-average-cash-cost


--------------------------------------------

That makes sense, which is typical of supply and demand in most commodities. The price goes up they grow/mine/make more...extra supply drives the price down until the cost becomes prohibitive and supply gets affected, the price rises to reflect the supply/demand relationship again....

Works for me...

CanOz

 

[Joules MM1]

That makes sense, which is typical of supply and demand in most commodities. The price goes up they grow/mine/make more...extra supply drives the price down until the cost becomes prohibitive and supply gets affected, the price rises to reflect the supply/demand relationship again....

Works for me...

CanOz

yeah, use to be a euphemism a positive feedback loop......works both ways huh

- - - Updated - - -

gold is money

http://www.theonion.com/articles/markets-in-turmoil-as-price-of-money-skyrockets-to,32939/

NEW YORK””After fluctuating wildly this morning between $1 and $35, the price of money spiked to an unprecedented $90 a dollar in afternoon trading, plunging international financial markets into chaos. “Wall Street erupted into absolute pandemonium once the price of a dollar jumped past $50””if this keeps up, I wouldn’t be surprised if the dollar reached $275 or higher by the closing bell,” said CNBC analyst Marvin Kanisch, noting that the price of 20 dollars had soared well over $1,000 amid frenzied trading before plummeting back down to a more reasonable $430, while the price of five dollars remained steady at $5. “Everywhere you look, panicked investors are clamoring to exchange their dollars””which can only purchase about two cents apiece right now””for more stable dimes and quarters, which are trading at $18 and $32.25, respectively. And with the price of pennies falling below $140 an ounce, it’s easy to understand the sense of urgency. Bottom line: It’s a seller’s market.” With the skyrocketing dollar-to-dollar exchange rate prompting Americans to hoard as much money as possible, President Obama is expected to address the nation later today about easing America’s dependence on domestic currency.

tops !

 

[sinner]

That makes sense, which is typical of supply and demand in most commodities. The price goes up they grow/mine/make more...extra supply drives the price down until the cost becomes prohibitive and supply gets affected, the price rises to reflect the supply/demand relationship again....

Works for me...

CanOz

Gold is not a typical commodity in any sense of the word.

It has a stock:flow ratio which is many many orders of magnitude higher than say, oil, or copper, for which the general relationship between supply and demand as you've espoused it plays out.

With commodities that have a low stock:flow ratio, high prices bring out more flow (stockpile supply and new production chasing the new price) which drives the price down. High prices in gold actually have an adverse affect on flows, the higher the price, the worse the effect.

"Gold has always been funny in that way. So many people worldwide think of it as money, it tends to dry up as the price rises."
(ANOTHER, 1997)

http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2010/10/its-flow-stupid.html

 

[CanOz]

Interesting Sinner, thanks...

Well i think 1200 will stop it...we're not far off.

CanOz

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Interesting Sinner, thanks...

Well i think 1200 will stop it...we're not far off.

CanOz

And the fact that below that price, for an extended period, supply will progressively come out of the market?

Always small, enthusiastic rallies met with systematic, almost mathematically precise sell orders - nice stairs. I guess if you wanted to buy something and the seller kept lowering their price you'd be in no hurry to buy at a higher price either?

 

[skyQuake]

Interesting Sinner, thanks...

Well i think 1200 will stop it...we're not far off.

CanOz

lol good call.

Interesting to note however the gold stock indices are up about 2% and are ignoring the fall.

 

[CanOz]

I heard on the radio that it dipped below. I recorded the data last night to watch today. I want to see how it reacted to 1200. Really, if a solid number is approached, buyers should be waiting as sellers pile on and the market plummets into the number in one last push. Then we to bracket...likely for a few days, then re test likely...now if I can get out of bed and on my bike I'd be all set...zzzz

 

[lucifuge]

This might have been said before, I'm not trawling through 500 odd pages to find out...

Looking at the $US gold over the last 13 years in a log scale, I came up with this chart. From 2001 through to end of 2005, there was a clear baseline support in form of a trend. After 2006, the baseline support lifted. The price of today's gold if it had followed the 2001-2005 baseline would be approximately US$1060. Of course this purely a technical diversion and needs to be treated as such. However, if gold were to fall below this 2001-2005 trendline of support, then we would definitely be heading into uncharted waters. If it were to bounce off US$1060-ish then I will take the risk to buy up.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I heard on the radio that it dipped below. I recorded the data last night to watch today. I want to see how it reacted to 1200.

LOL not very well. Its rooted - stops galore. Face it bugs you lost!!

 

[CanOz]

Stops busted big time .. wow

Arrrghhh.....oh i forgot...i recorded it.

Amazing, even 1200 couldn't slow this farking thing down lol...I just said to my wife, i bet those suckers that lined up for the stuff at 1400 are kicking themselves...lol...

got to have another look at this now, maybe it'll take 1000 to hold it...

CanOz

 

[pixel]

1200 was merely a little psychological level; technically, it's just an in-between level.
Lucifuge's 1160 is far more significant; it also ties in with my triple-top target that I penned in when the 4th break attempt at 1530 succeeded.



In reply to skyQuake's observation: Yesterday's small green candle in the XGD goldies' index came after a heavy fall in earlier days; stock options expired, which means NCM in particular was lifted slightly, so writers of Puts didn't have to be exercised. (That may still have failed in the end.)



We should also remember that today's EOFY may play a role as instos try to window-dress and make their portfolios look better than they actually are.

 

[sinner]

LOL not very well. Its rooted - stops galore. Face it bugs you lost!!

Damnit, if only I had invested all of my savings into stocks instead of gold, back when I had the chance!!

 

[Trembling Hand]

Pixel looks like your cat has thrown up all over your charts! Cannot see a thing for all the spew all over them

I think skyQuake was referring to the US gold index last nigh not ASX.

 

[CanOz]

I agree Pixel, 1160 is the center of this potential bracket area...then if we break lower again, 980...

For full disclosure, i don't hold any gold other than whats around my neck...(gifted pre bull market) My interest is purely from a technical perspective.

CanOz

 

[skyQuake]

Yep, was referring to o/n gold indices - XAU, HUI, GDX and GDXJ etfs

See attached:



Imo last nite's action looks like it'll attack some great buying

 

[Uncle Festivus]

LOL not very well. Its rooted - stops galore. Face it bugs you lost!!

So when it was at 1900 we had one? I'm not sure it's a matter of 'winning' or 'losing' anything as there's a bit to go yet. Some parties require the price to be as low as possible for the end of the qtr, so see what happens next week?

The miners think it's all a bit ho hum, which may be a clue, or just window dressing?

Easy money shorting this thing though, all very predictable now.

 

[sinner]

I am still the same buyer I was last week, last year, last decade.

From that perspective all I know is that this week my surplus productivity buys more gold, at a lower premium.

From a statistical perspective, when have the returns for gold historically been best? When gold is overbought or oversold (as measured by say the 1Y or 10Y returns), when gold sentiment is overbullish or overbearish, when physical premiums are high or low?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Should have been 'won'.

Waterfall from 1200 to 1180 retraced so far, and some.

Waiting for the next waterfall to short

 

[Trembling Hand]

So when it was at 1900 we had one?

Only if you sounded the trumpets