Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[>Apocalypto<]

75 held and we've now broken out to the topside of the large pattern on a very illiquid market...


CanOz

took a buy on gold... small one though.. Gold daily confirming the double bottom/ higher low... breaking short term trend and moving though 20WMA.. a buy signal for me... ent 1403.9 looking for 1430 BE SL 1460 as a TP target.

 

[explod]

The rise today looks like a bit of movement at the station but as usual could be knocked down in minutes just prior to the US open in the usual fashion.

If we hold clearly above US$1400 overnight we have a start perhaps, but do not get too exited till we brake out properly, and at this stage the level to beat is about US$1550 in my view.

However those focused on prescious metals are starting to understand the two gold price conundrum. Called at my dealer today who apologised for being slow to pick up the point that paper contracts of gold ownership will soon have little value and in a real world do not have it now. But when you can borrow paper created gold contracts (without any real gold) for shorting then anything is indeed possible.

Most who follow this thread will know.

The following links (just some I tap into) may help those seeking answers for themselves:-

http://www.gata.org/

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Butler/201...ina-To-Add-Another-Country-To-Its-Roster.html

http://www.goldtrends.net/

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.au/

 

[Uncle Festivus]

It is but is isn't?

Money managers cut their net-long position by 9 percent to 35,686 futures and options as of May 21, the lowest since July 2007, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Holdings of short contracts rose 6.7 percent to a record 79,416.

Investor sentiment is “negative towards gold,” and physical demand has started to slow, Suki Cooper, a New York-based analyst at Barclays Plc, said in a May 24 report. The metal will get “crushed” and trade at $1,100 in a year and below $1,000 in five years as inflation fails to accelerate, Ric Deverell, the head of commodities research at Credit Suisse Group AG, said in London on May 16.

No inflation?

Members of Japanese fisheries cooperatives staged a rally Wednesday in Tokyo to seek full-scale financial help from the government as rising fuel prices due to the rapid depreciation of the yen hits the industry.

Inflation to hit Japanese consumers: largest bread maker in the country, Yamazaki Baking, announced that it would raise prices by 3% to 6% for bread and by 2% to 6% for pastries. Culprit? Not rising demand or optimism or rising wages, but the devalued yen that pushed up the cost of imported flower. The costs of other ingredients have also risen recently.

Japanese QE out of control......



US QE out of control....

The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.81% in the week ending May 30 ”” the highest since the week ending May 10, 2012 ”” up from 3.59% in the prior week, Freddie Mac said Thursday. This month alone the rate has climbed almost half a percentage point.

 

[Ann]

Feeling a bit bearish about the POG at the moment. It bounced back off the long term $1414 resistance. It may yet fall down from the bearish inverted pennant on the flagpole ( I drew this on end of day points hence it looks a bit out of the candlesticks) and as a last bit of bearishness for followers of candlestick charting, there appears to be a 'dark cloud cover' on the last day of the month.

 

[explod]

Last three Fridays (Sat morn our time) have been down days. Heard the other day that 87% of Fridays in the last few years have been down days. Seems to collapse when the traders knock off early and go to the pub. though this Friday did start a bit earlier.

Note on your chart Anne that the last three weeks of close have been higher lows so I feel more ambivilant. But could go up again till Friday, but of course about 70% of Mondays are down days too. Wednesdays and Thursdays seem to be the up days.

In the paper price that is followed here anything could happen and probably will.

Just my

But I need to add that we could (will soon) have a big correction down in the bubbling Dow and S and P 500 which will bring everything including gold down with it. In my very very humble opinion as usual

 

[aclassic]

Thank you Ann, Explod, Unc's, et al, for your thoughts.

Only a few are brave enough to comment nowadays.

cheers.

PS C'mon Z !

 

[sinner]

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4757/sprott-discusses-gld-redemptions

Eric Sprott: "The bullion banks happen to be the only ones able to redeem GLD shares for gold, and the GLD, with its 1,000 tonnes of inventory, acts like a large physical gold bank… it is very probable that the bullion banks themselves are in a shortage of physical gold, hence the need to use the GLD reserves."

Sprott finally realising today what FOFOA explained over 2 years ago.

http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2011/01/who-is-draining-gld.html

 

[Uncle Festivus]

So Lava Girl is manufacturing a dump so she can suck gold out of the ETF's to cover her shorts?

Looks like a descending (bearish) wedge forming on the daily so LG isn't finished yet?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Conspiracy theory......?

JPM a bit short of physical?

Bernanke knows this? - does he save the market or save JPM?

Is JPM too big to fail?

QE taper or not?

Bernanke announces retirement?

Something big brewing?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Something big brewing?

What again?

 

[sinner]

Soooo...JPM is short of gold, controls the market with infinite paper shorts...yet the market rose 600%,

you had one job, Blythe, one job.

 

[MARKETWINNER]

If investment demand continues to decline and gold ETF holders continue to sell, I believe a gold price below $1,000/oz .Gold will eventually return to its true cost of production.

In addition we have to accept no currency, stock or any commodity will go straight up and down. We had great rally for gold during last 10 years and gold cycle has reversed to bear territory now. I am bearish on gold now. There can be dead cat bounce time to time and intelligent players will make use of this opportunity to sell their gold positions. It is time to become bullish on commodities with demand and supply mismatch and emerging commodities globally. Investors will have some great opportunity to pick some emerging commodity stocks globally in the coming weeks and months.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

 

[zac]

If investment demand continues to decline and gold ETF holders continue to sell, I believe a gold price below $1,000/oz .Gold will eventually return to its true cost of production.

What source of info are you using to derive the <$1000/oz production cost of Gold.

From what I can gather its hovering above it now and from what industry experts say the way Gold Production costs is reported on balance sheets it doesn't take into considerations all the true costs. I forget the terminology but theres apparently something like a $400 disparity between the way analysts work out the costs and the real cost.

 

[MARKETWINNER]

Please see following links.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...arbarous-relic-will-trade-below-1000-by-2014/

Roubini: Why gold, ‘that barbarous relic,’ will trade below $1,000 by 2015

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1411601-short-gold-for-the-long-haul

Short Gold For The Long Haul

http://seekingalpha.com/article/150...-supply-and-demand-tell-us?source=google_news

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100640665

Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

 

[explod]

The bears are out in force,

in fact stronger than 2001 when gold rose 300%

and 2009 when it rose 250%

Now lets see, this August may see the dawn of the next rise to US$3,500 or so;

and with most mines going to the wall and the Chinese buying the equivelent of world production atm, oh! and the Indians refusal to stop black marketing the stuff, the mints not able to keep up with buyer demand, then who knows.

And it usually goes the other way on my calls anyhow.

 

[explod]

The following is a very good surmation (in my view) of the current propoganda downramping gold:-


http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/gold-commentary/26267-gold-bashing-mythology-hits-new-crescendo

 

[CanOz]

The following is a very good surmation (in my view) of the current propoganda downramping gold:-


http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/gold-commentary/26267-gold-bashing-mythology-hits-new-crescendo

Honestly explod, where do you get this trash? It's written like a rant and sounds vaguely familiar.

Really the only honest and objective analysts on gold would be the technical analysts, everyone else is either clouded by the love of the stuff, or jaded by past pain...

It's a joke...

CanOz

 

[Trembling Hand]

Honestly explod,


It's a joke...

You might as well be asking the pope for a honest appraisal of the catholic church.

 

[Joules MM1]

Honestly explod, where do you get this trash? It's written like a rant and sounds vaguely familiar.

Really the only honest and objective analysts on gold would be the technical analysts, everyone else is either clouded by the love of the stuff, or jaded by past pain...

It's a joke...

CanOz

when it's going down it's propaganda...going up it's righteous .... couldnt be people dont want it or people do want it, nooooo...as in just selling or just buying....but if you wait, oh, 5000 years or so you might be able to buy milk with it.....

let's make a bigger daily lower low....at least retest the recent low and then we can go for a meow....a big furry feline feral meow....

 

[explod]

Comments to be expected when few realise that the paper price of gold due to derivatives and paper notes on leased gold of up to 100/1 bears little semblance to the physical shortage and the premium most are paying to obtain physical in the hand.

And how about a good dessertation on the points considered to be the rants in the article presented.

Having a good knowledge of technical analysis and having watched the gold chart daily since 2004 I can say that gold is worked at specific support and resistance levels, and most frequently out of heavy trading hours, and often at the close on Saturday mornings and coinciding with financial press statements. It is being manipulated.

The banks and financial industry hate gold as they cannot work with real physical for trading, trailing fees etc. There will be many posters here in such industries.