Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Jump to new
Haven't been here in a while, looks as though the same arguments still rage. Fundamentals still haven't changed. Bernanke simply mentions the word taper with no indication of how and when and yields start to rise. Things will start to slide, no taper required, enter qe infinity supercharged. Glad to hold my gold.
 
young-gun said:
... same arguments still rage. Fundamentals still haven't changed. ....Glad to hold my gold.
Click to expand...

what's interesting about that comment is that the "fundamentals" have not made any difference to price (ascension) since the 1900 zone..... is it poss that the "fundamentals" are the reason for price decline?
 
.......and well-timed sell orders. Down 20 right on 11?

It's 'I'll match your QE & raise you one' to make your currency globally competitive so once global QE is started then no one country can exit by itself without consequences ie even if the US wanted to taper they can't?
 
general consensus opines on QE:

gold is going up because (a) Fed is running QE

gold is going up because (a) Fed is ending QE

gold was 1900 now close to 1200 .......hows that working, exactly?

- - - Updated - - -

several ratio levels were broken early today adding weight of sales with only commercials soaking supply....now that money managers are likely to trend-follow and open shorts even more weight.....

this is minimum target i have been looking for close to 1200 once broken the measure is expanded to x2 the current price width....note the date.....also note the likely historic cross-over of commercials v larger specs contracts

gold old 130613.png
 
Joules MM1 said:
general consensus opines on QE:

gold is going up because (a) Fed is running QE

gold is going up because (a) Fed is ending QE

gold was 1900 now close to 1200 .......hows that working, exactly?
Click to expand...

None of the above? The Fed is running QE to proportionally take up the job of recycling USD from countries where the current account surplus is declining!

FOA (8/22/01; 05:18:54MT - usagold.com msg#98)

The war between gold and the dollar has been over for a while now. The action, today, is between the dollar and the euro arena and this is what will break the price lock on gold. Leaving gold bugs with a lot of questions that ask why this: both systems will strive for a higher currency price for gold; one doing it because they have to; the other doing it because they want to! The casualty on this battlefield will be the world gold market as we know it.
Click to expand...

If the USD system is not striving for a higher currency price of gold right now, it's because it doesn't have to. Plain and simple.
 
sinner said:
None of the above? The Fed is running QE to proportionally take up the job of recycling USD from countries where the current account surplus is declining!
Click to expand...

in your opinion, of course ......how exactly does that enable a trade, up or down?
 
Joules MM1 said:
in your opinion, of course ......how exactly does that enable a trade, up or down?
Click to expand...

IMHO, of course, since that is what you asked for.

It doesn't enable a trade, but it does enable an understanding of the market, which allows you to trade as you please.

i.e.

1. Prior to launch of the Euro in 1999, Europe ran a current account surplus and used this real productivity to provide structural support for the USD (recycling those USD into USD denominated financial assets)
2. After the launch of the Euro this structural support was wound down, but the Asian/EM economies picked up the slack, using their real current accounts surplus to buy and recycle into USD.
3. Current account surplus are declining in Asian/EM economies since the GFC, even becoming deficit in some cases. So there is less real productivity with which to recycle USD.
4. But still, some of these Asian/EM block are still deferring consumption, but into physical gold, not USD (these CBs have been large buyers for the last 5Y)
5. The Fed has proportionally taken up the job of recycling those USD.
6. Since the recycling is not being done on the back of real productivity anymore, along with some real global productivity being deferred into physical vaulted gold, all of those USD are heading home, whether the Fed likes it or not.

This is simply a Balance of Payments/accounting fact.

"Trade" off this basis as you wish. My play is relatively simple, and that is to defer some of my real productivity into physical gold, ala "The Central Bank of Sinner".
 
sinner said:
IMHO, of course, since that is what you asked for.

It doesn't enable a trade, but it does enable an understanding of the market, which allows you to trade as you please.

i.e.

1. Prior to launch of the Euro in 1999, Europe ran a current account surplus and used this real productivity to provide structural support for the USD (recycling those USD into USD denominated financial assets)
2. After the launch of the Euro this structural support was wound down, but the Asian/EM economies picked up the slack, using their real current accounts surplus to buy and recycle into USD.
3. Current account surplus are declining in Asian/EM economies since the GFC, even becoming deficit in some cases. So there is less real productivity with which to recycle USD.
4. But still, some of these Asian/EM block are still deferring consumption, but into physical gold, not USD (these CBs have been large buyers for the last 5Y)
5. The Fed has proportionally taken up the job of recycling those USD.
6. Since the recycling is not being done on the back of real productivity anymore, along with some real global productivity being deferred into physical vaulted gold, all of those USD are heading home, whether the Fed likes it or not.

This is simply a Balance of Payments/accounting fact.

"Trade" off this basis as you wish. My play is relatively simple, and that is to defer some of my real productivity into physical gold, ala "The Central Bank of Sinner".
Click to expand...

ah, so, you'd agree that, if we throw all that supposition aside, a trade can be made.....
 
Joules MM1 said:
ah, so, you'd agree that, if we throw all that supposition aside, a trade can be made.....
Click to expand...

Errr right, all of the stuff I just typed, which can easily be verified on the stats page of Central Banks worldwide, is supposition. I don't think that word means what you think it means.

If you wanna trade the XAUUSD FX based on your opinion of QE, go for it. You asked for an opinion, I gave mine. Hell I even gave you my play.
 
simple.....

all the opines about price ascending were just as valid at 1900 as they are at 1200

that's less 700

people who read this can either infer that waffling into ad-hoc opines will save them or make them or they can go down a different road

you know how many people bought into the opines are hanging on for dear life not in the expectation of great gains but in sheer hope that price will go back up.......

trade opinion or trade price
 
sinner said:
Awesome, here I was thinking we were trying to have a real discussion, but actually you just wanted to make a generic point at the expense of goldbugs.

:xyxthumbs

I'll leave you to it.
Click to expand...

lol....thanks....the point is for the gain of someone who is thinking about trading gold as opposed to someone emotionally tied to the logic of holding gold.....
 
Joules MM1 said:
lol....thanks....the point is for the gain of someone who is thinking about trading gold as opposed to someone emotionally tied to the logic of holding gold.....
Click to expand...

You're not trading gold though, you're trading XAUUSD, which is the cash/spot ratio of XAU bullion bank accounting units to Eurodollars, plain and simple. There is exactly 0 gold involved in the transaction.

As a trader, I fail to see how XAUUSD, let alone actual gold is an attractive vehicle for trading, compared to pretty much any other market out there. XAGUSD has higher betas on the same spreads in the interbank market. EURUSD has better liquidity. AUDUSD actually moves during AU hours. XAUUSD doesn't even have any appreciable low hanging fruit around short term mean reversion or momentum, compared to other instruments in th FX complex.

Anyway, back to the "Joules MM1 Trading Gold based on QE" show. No suppositions there... :cautious:
 

Similar threads

M
Investing in Gold
2 3 4
Replies
77
Views
10K
houtman
H
System
SGD - Siguiri Gold Corp.
Replies
1
Views
645
Dona Ferentes
Dona Ferentes
Garpal Gumnut
US Election 2024 : Stock and Economic Comment
5 6 7
Replies
134
Views
5K
divs4ever
divs4ever
Joe Blow
  • Sticky
Resources Rising Stars 2024 Conference Gold Coast
Replies
7
Views
2K
Garpal Gumnut
Garpal Gumnut
B
$FDR.V | FDMIF - Founders Metals Inc.
2
Replies
24
Views
5K
BigMacAttack
B
Top