Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[sinner]

Comments to be expected when few realise that the paper price of gold due to derivatives and paper notes on leased gold of up to 100/1 bears little semblance to the physical shortage and the premium most are paying to obtain physical in the hand.

Absolute rubbish. I bought a handful of single ounce bars today, direct from bullion dealer, at only 2.6% premium to spot...which is lower than last weeks premium, and lower than the previous months premium.

And how about a good dessertation on the points considered to be the rants in the article presented.

No points were presented, so no points will be disserted.

 

[Trembling Hand]

And how about a good dessertation on the points considered to be the rants in the article presented.

How about you stop talking about this and show what you mean with real data??

the paper price of gold due to derivatives and paper notes on leased gold of up to 100/1

 

[explod]

Absolute rubbish. I bought a handful of single ounce bars today, direct from bullion dealer, at only 2.6% premium to spot...which is lower than last weeks premium, and lower than the previous months premium.



No points were presented, so no points will be disserted.

There will be exceptions and you will note I used the word "most". I visited two dealers in Melbourne yesterday to buy silver bars and could not. I could buy on ebay at a 20% premium, have done but do not like to.

 

[sinner]

There will be exceptions and you will note I used the word "most". I visited two dealers in Melbourne yesterday to buy silver bars and could not. I could buy on ebay at a 20% premium, have done but do not like to.

So you're saying there's a physical shortage of gold (because you went to some coin shops and they didn't have silver bullion to sell), but my dealer who buys direct from (Perth Mint, PAMP and ABC Bullion), is stupidly selling me gold at the lowest premiums to spot in over a year?

So you'll buy physical on ebay, but won't just go to the website of any of the four or five major Aussie bullion dealers to buy online?

They sell "bullion grade" copper bars on eBay too, several hundred percent over spot or front month copper price. Must be a huge physical copper shortage.

EDIT: I just spoke to my gold dealer, he said they have 0 bars of copper bullion to sell me, must be a physical shortage.

 

[sinner]

Sprott PHYS fund, share price versus spot gold, and NAV premium charts, says it all...where's the physical shortage?






PHYS, which was trading over 20% to spot in the 2011 spike, now trading for the first time since then, at a discount to NAV.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

when it's going down it's propaganda...going up it's righteous

This comment works both ways for both sides - each time justifying one's position. For eg there was lot's of comment that the gold correction was proof that CB policies are working yet when gold was at 1900 the same commentators were silent. If it goes back over 2k will they then say it's proof that CB policy has failed? I don't think so.

I'm more amazed that the POG hasn't 'corrected' lower given the golden opportunity for the bullion banks to complete the game once and for all? How long can the cappers keep monkey hammering physical demand with paper supply?

They may be pricing gold to counter a 'no taper' continuance of QE, or better yet an increase in QE? A $200 surge from here is better than from $1600? Take gold down to contain a pop and equities up to limit the downside?

 

[FlyingFox]

So you're saying there's a physical shortage of gold (because you went to some coin shops and they didn't have silver bullion to sell), but my dealer who buys direct from (Perth Mint, PAMP and ABC Bullion), is stupidly selling me gold at the lowest premiums to spot in over a year?

So you'll buy physical on ebay, but won't just go to the website of any of the four or five major Aussie bullion dealers to buy online?

They sell "bullion grade" copper bars on eBay too, several hundred percent over spot or front month copper price. Must be a huge physical copper shortage.

EDIT: I just spoke to my gold dealer, he said they have 0 bars of copper bullion to sell me, must be a physical shortage.

+1 . At no point in the past 6 months have I noticed any sort of physical shortage at the bullion dealers (Although I don't check in evry day or week). In fact last time I bought silver (still cursing myself about that) they were selling PAMP bars lower than Perth mint. Don't remember what their margin was at that point but wasn't over a few percent.

BTW I am talking about 1 kg silver or 100g gold bars not coins with shiny kangaroos on them.

 

[Ann]

Where the F... are you Zed (J)?

I reckon the POG is going to spear upward like.....Whoa!

I just looked at the COTS and OI is rock bottom.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

After it spears down a hundred bucks :hammer:

These guys are so easily spooked by Bernanke. His speech was nothing more than a big computer programming loop IF/THEN - there's not going to even be a taper coz the real data is still pathetic & they know it.

It's going to be a rough ride with the transition from QE gold to 'fear & safety' gold.......at least in the paper markets. Interesting if we see the 'panic' buying this time?

 

[pixel]

It will be interesting to watch what happens today.
Should it be pushed back above $1300, a lot of technical buying might start a panic/ greed onrush.



But if 1300 remains resistance, my weekly chart suggests more downside. Target $1150.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Geez, getting there pixel, explosive bounce off 1270 just then, now up 20 in 1/2hr. All the making of a short squeeze?

 

[CanOz]

Geez, getting there pixel, explosive bounce off 1270 just then, now up 20 in 1/2hr. All the making of a short squeeze?

How about just short covering to start with? Shorts have been covering all morning on the NK and SPI.

Shorts like to take profits too ya know.

A squeeze is when they're trapped, will take any price to get out and they drive the price up frantically as everyone else gets out of the way and tries to get long.

CanOz

 

[Uncle Festivus]

How about just short covering to start with? Shorts have been covering all morning on the NK and SPI.

Shorts like to take profits too ya know.

A squeeze is when they're trapped, will take any price to get out and they drive the price up frantically as everyone else gets out of the way and tries to get long.

CanOz

Not really sure what your point is - should I have said 'short covering'? I was just commenting on the $20 spurt at 11:40.

By all accounts it's a pretty thin market (OI) so some big moves both ways to become the norm? What happened to all those banks that were supposedly long now?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

And one last kick while he's down.........

(Reuters) - The CME Group, parent of the Chicago Board of Trade, raised initial margins for Comex gold and NYMEX platinum futures, effective after the close of business on Friday, June 21.

The exchange operator raised Comex 100 Gold Futures (GC)initial margins for speculators by 25 percent to $8,800 per contract from $7,040.

 

[CanOz]

And one last kick while he's down.........

(Reuters) - The CME Group, parent of the Chicago Board of Trade, raised initial margins for Comex gold and NYMEX platinum futures, effective after the close of business on Friday, June 21.

The exchange operator raised Comex 100 Gold Futures (GC)initial margins for speculators by 25 percent to $8,800 per contract from $7,040.

Here we go again, this always happens when volatility picks up...

 

[MARKETWINNER]

Even Jim Rogers says correction for Gold is not over. I agree with this.

According to him that gold will resume its bull market at some point over the current decade. I agree with this too.

I believe inflation will come down during next six months due to lower commodity prices and new developments. There will be life time opportunities in both commodity and stocks markets in the coming quarters. There will be some opportunities in commodity stocks as well.

Some emerging commodities also will shine in the coming decade in addition to some food based agri commodities.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

 

[wayneL]

Even Jim Rogers says correction for Gold is not over. I agree with this..

I don't agree at all. This ain't no correction, it's a route that's only just beginning.

 

[MARKETWINNER]

WayneL

You may be right. We have to wait and see. Even Jim roger is talking about coming decade not coming year.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I don't agree at all. This ain't no correction, it's a route that's only just beginning.

Or it could be that USD's are the perceived store of safety when other currencies are a tad ordinary, which would not be good for gold short term (as well as the retail mob getting out of ETF's), but how long can the US be the sole bastion of supposed 'growth' in a world of structurally diminishing GDP, or even recession?

Each day is a day closer to the US having to find answers to deep structural flaws that are essentially insurmountable ie $50-$100Trillion in unfunded liabilities?

Here we go again, this always happens when volatility picks up...

The Dow is down 500 pts in 2 days - no change in margins?? What's the bet they reduce margins for equites if it starts to get messy?

 

[Ann]

After it spears down a hundred bucks :hammer:

Yes Uncle Festivus, there is always a lag with a reaction either way when the OI reaches a bottom or top on the COTS. I had actually expected the POG drop to have happened a lot sooner, on reflection I think everyone was watching what the DOW would do when it hit its upper resistance. Anyhoo...this coming week will probably see a reasonable rise in the POG if the DOW continues its merry way down, just my thoughts of course!