Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Ann]

1400 is the line in the sand today for me, on the high side at least....if we did get thru that then a test of 1425 is likely....

1363, 1357 and 1350 are key levels downside for me...

CanOz

Ahh yes CanOz you are speaking for the day trade. I was thinking of the next couple of days. The daily POG looks as though it may develop an inverted flag or pennant.

Looking at the 1 minute chart just then, there was a nice pennant on a flagpole setup. Then whammo, got ya! Down she went. Dang this daytrading is excitingcorn:!

 

[CanOz]

Ahh yes CanOz you are speaking for the day trade. I was thinking of the next couple of days. The daily POG looks as though it may develop an inverted flag or pennant.

Looking at the 1 minute chart just then, there was a nice pennant on a flagpole setup. Then whammo, got ya! Down she went. Dang this daytrading is excitingcorn:!

Yeah i watched gold for about 2 months back in January....that's when i realized it would just smash through levels. I tried trading it using the hot keys trying to hit the bid and offer and i got too much slippage once the pit opened. So now i decided to try and zone in on these levels a bit more, rather than just wait for them to appear in the DOM. Open up a 1 range chart, and a two minute chart below it. Look for the held bids and offers and use that as your level. Trade with a tight stop, 5 cars, 1 being a runner.

Sometimes Crude Oil will do the same thing but usually only when the shorts are covering hard.

the DAX as well, another market that likes smashing levels...

CanOz

 

[outback]

I was expecting a better bounce from the POG back up to the $1474 level but as it failed to find support and fell below the very long term and very strong resistance/support line of $1414, I don't believe it will have the strength to fight back above it. Let's see!

I'm struggling to find your very strong support/resistance at $1414. Certainly something there from 2010, but I wouldn't call it significant this far down the track.

 

[skyQuake]

Well that was vicious!

 

[CanOz]

Well that was vicious!

Yeah, nice one Ann, 1413.4

 

[G Gekko]

How does the US continuing QE translate into an overall drop in the value of gold? Bears out in force

 

[Trembling Hand]

How does the US continuing QE translate into an overall drop in the value of gold? Bears out in force

Could be lots of reason. Explod will tell ya its pure manipulation. Others could say you are looking in the rear view mirror while the market looks forward. Or having a too simplistic, one line story to a complex problem (Thats my take).

 

[explod]

Could be lots of reason. Explod will tell ya its pure manipulation. Others could say you are looking in the rear view mirror while the market looks forward. Or having a too simplistic, one line story to a complex problem (Thats my take).

I dont' know but you could be right T/H.

My understanding is that Q/E is the provision of more money to stimulate a recovery. I think gold is just like that, they make more paper contracts to try and stimulate it but it does not seem to be working, just like thier economy which has gone past 4 bad quarters and should be called recession. Maybe Q/E changes the old ruler.

Anyway gold was going up this morning but dropped a lot just before Big Ben did his talk. This is a take on that. (not necessarily my view either )

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/bernankes-semi-annual-tap-dance-of.html

 

[Ann]

I'm struggling to find your very strong support/resistance at $1414. Certainly something there from 2010, but I wouldn't call it significant this far down the track.

Outback if you trade using charts and discount the power of long term support/resistance lines, you do so at your peril.

 

[Ann]

Yeah, nice one Ann, 1413.4

Thanks CanOz!

Just a little whimsy for the conspiracy theorists on a Kitco chart from last night!

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Thanks CanOz!

Just a little whimsy for the conspiracy theorists on a Kitco chart from last night!

Double bottom starting to form on the Daily chart. Today's bar is setting up a higher low off it so could be trying to find a floor. also lines up with a support point in 2010.

 

[Ann]

Double bottom starting to form on the Daily chart. Today's bar is setting up a higher low off it so could be trying to find a floor. also lines up with a support point in 2010.

May also be forming a pennant on an inverted flagpole. Let's see!

 

[G Gekko]

Or having a too simplistic, one line story to a complex problem (Thats my take).

Would have to agree with this.

 

[Ann]

The last couple of days has seen POG moving into a pennant on a bearish inverted flagpole, it is getting to the point where it needs to either break up and test the 1414 level again or fall down and just see how low it can go!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

The last couple of days has seen POG moving into a pennant on a bearish inverted flagpole, it is getting to the point where it needs to either break up and test the 1414 level again or fall down and just see how low it can go!

Unfortunately you are giving Lava Girl an insight into the best time to raid gold again with your analysis

If gold is indeed manipulated then I expect it to break to the downside, coinciding as it does with jitters in fiat world over JGB's, stock market busts and a negative ripple/contagion effect?

Permanent proviso - unless & until it all turns to *&$*%^& and the 'flight to safety' (not USD's) trade is back on, though it will be a tad crowded by that stage?

 

[Ann]

Unfortunately you are giving Lava Girl an insight into the best time to raid gold again with your analysis

If gold is indeed manipulated then I expect it to break to the downside, coinciding as it does with jitters in fiat world over JGB's, stock market busts and a negative ripple/contagion effect?

Permanent proviso - unless & until it all turns to *&$*%^& and the 'flight to safety' (not USD's) trade is back on, though it will be a tad crowded by that stage?

I am thinking it will be thwarted from rising to 1414 as there is a short term overhead resistance line heading down at the end of the pennant which may add a bit of downward pressure onto the price.

I am no good with timing the market with conspiracy theories Uncle Festivus, charts are easier!

 

[MARKETWINNER]

Today, like most commodities, the price of gold is driven by supply and demand as well as speculation. I heard even number of hedge funds are shorting gold now.

I saw following link on Gold today.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1411601-short-gold-for-the-long-haul

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.

 

[Ann]

...and today may be an interesting day for the POG. Will the falling April overhead resistance make the POG slide down with it?

 

[CanOz]

Yup, agree. Yesterdays failed auction higher puts the lows into play if we break through 1375 again...

 

[CanOz]

Yup, agree. Yesterdays failed auction higher puts the lows into play if we break through 1375 again...

75 held and we've now broken out to the topside of the large pattern on a very illiquid market...


CanOz