Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Uncle Festivus]

I'm thinking this will be a long drawn out match , probably going into penalty time ............. shame the other side has no goalie and now they're so confused they've got the drinks runner dashing out with a bat .... or is it the thirteenth man on the wrong oval

London AM close back on 872 , feel like we've been here before ........ ?

What is worrying , is the rhetoric elsewhere , same style lead up , let's hope the actions aren't similar too .

The 'rhetoric rally' may have more to it if the US Fed still has any sway over world finances. The trend for the M aggregates has been for a tightening, so they may be telegraphing to the market an intention of raising rates without ever having to, because of a few niggling things like the real estate crash and the recession.

They will walk a tightrope over whether they want inflation or deflation now, so we could see another reversal in the M's to re-inflate after the long predicted rebound in the second half of the year fails to materialise?

I think the wedge formation has broken down into a descending triangle, so a bit bearish for now??

Still think it will be this qtrs reporting season in July/August before we get some big moves - either way

 

[barrett]

The oil wedge had a false breakout and seems to have broken down, as has the gold pennant.. in on the short side for tonight

 

[barrett]

There's that 872-873 support.. bounced off strongly, I've gone neutral.. but if that level was broken the bears would probably have a field day!

 

[ithatheekret]

The 'rhetoric rally' may have more to it if the US Fed still has any sway over world finances. The trend for the M aggregates has been for a tightening, so they may be telegraphing to the market an intention of raising rates without ever having to, because of a few niggling things like the real estate crash and the recession.

They will walk a tightrope over whether they want inflation or deflation now, so we could see another reversal in the M's to re-inflate after the long predicted rebound in the second half of the year fails to materialise?

I think the wedge formation has broken down into a descending triangle, so a bit bearish for now?? I disagree here Unc .

Still think it will be this qtrs reporting season in July/August before we get some big moves - either way

What we have to get through to people is that financial crisis is far from over , inflation will be more uncomfortable over the coming months and that is the gist of the future prospects ..... adjust your portfolios appropriately .

The US housing problem is still heading south , and will do for at least another 10-15% at a bare minimum . All the rhetoric in the world won't stop the wave of problems ahead , action is needed , but as with everything administrations do , there is a definite lag effect , unfortunately the lag period here could be in years and not the couple it usually takes to catch up , we are talking at least a decade .

The M3 miracles are nothing but wallpaper and paint covering up the cracks , ever since inflation swung about on them , when the failed to contain the monster , after they declared they had , we have seen the cost-push ratios increase monthly , this effectively sends staples ( food ) through the roof .
Natural disaters that have destroyed crops and savaged the growing belts around the globe have added to the rise , so when you here them say they have it contained again , just remember they couldn't hold back a fart , yet alone cost-push inflation , this leg will go hyper , they just don't want panic .

 

[explod]

What we have to get through to people is that financial crisis is far from over , inflation will be more uncomfortable over the coming months and that is the gist of the future prospects ..... adjust your portfolios appropriately .
, .

Yep. I am probably a bit off topic but confirms the trajectory . The following from Jeremy Grantham, quoted in Cnanada's Globe and Mail:-

You draw comparisons between what's happening today and the start of the Great Depression.

We're in that 1929-30 window, where we've had a shock to the system. But the secondary effects - less consumption, lower profit margins, lower GDP, lower employment, lower global trade - are beginning to work through the system. They're steadfastly ignored because they're still quite slight. It takes a year, 18 months [or] even longer for some of these effects to show up.

 

[explod]

On the look of the daily candle chart it is my view that gold should progress to the $US905 area this week.

If strength remains from that point, a breach of 925 may well see a new move beyond $US1000

But only a view.

Need a few merlot's, which is imminent

 

[ithatheekret]

Well I had a few reds last night , but it did not sway the bemusement of the March TIC data , revised from just over $80B down to a minus $40 odd billion .

Aprils figure came in around $60B , still well short of the prescribed $85B needed each month from the rest of the global community to keep Uncle Sams tills ticking over and reduce that nasty old deficit .

So on that front , it's about time Ben and Co. , went back to primary school and worked on the addition and subtraction sums .

What was that mystery number and where in the flippin' heck did they dig it up from . Perhaps some others are on the red as well , although by the calculations you'd swear they were on something harder .

I think I know where they came up with it ........ they pulled it out their ar** , they made it up , waved the magic wand and hey presto .

Abracadabra ....... instant BS .

 

[wayneL]

Well I had a few reds last night , but it did not sway the bemusement of the March TIC data , revised from just over $80B down to a minus $40 odd billion .

Aprils figure came in around $60B , still well short of the prescribed $85B needed each month from the rest of the global community to keep Uncle Sams tills ticking over and reduce that nasty old deficit .

So on that front , it's about time Ben and Co. , went back to primary school and worked on the addition and subtraction sums .

What was that mystery number and where in the flippin' heck did they dig it up from . Perhaps some others are on the red as well , although by the calculations you'd swear they were on something harder .

I think I know where they came up with it ........ they pulled it out their ar** , they made it up , waved the magic wand and hey presto .

Abracadabra ....... instant BS .

You expected different?

Bull###t baffles brains.

 

[ithatheekret]

You expected different?

Bull###t baffles brains.

They say our minds are like parachutes and they best work when open . Strewth they make it hard though , just sometimes they throw in such a good spanner , it absolutely befuddles me ....... how they get away with it .

Weirdos and religious zealots of all description flourishing in their Greens and now a pile of compost in the Fed records .

Wonderful way to build faith back into the market .

I know , let's really stuff 'em up , we'll send them Gordon bennett oops Brown , just for laughs we'll chuck in Malcolm Turnbull , if we've run out of steak knives ( they are of value ) , we'll give 'em Mals comrade Kev instead .

At least Mal can sort of add up and Kevs got the syntax down pat .

 

[wayneL]

I know , let's really stuff 'em up , we'll send them Gordon bennett oops Brown ..

Now that's just plain mean. :

Mind you, he will be looking for a job shortly. I would be god if it was elsewhere.

 

[barrett]

Does anyone know what is up with that little explosion just now in the oil and gold markets? One minute oil is 134, two seconds later it's 135, two seconds later it's 133, 30 seconds later it's back at 134.. was it the Brazilian federal reserve jawboning ...or just a good old fashioned bernanke boning?

 

[ithatheekret]

George is twisting arms in the congress to lift the ban on drilling on the outer continental shelf and the ban on shale drilling in Alaska , there was some blah blahing on federal refinery building permits approvals being sped up , with the hope of increasing capacity , but I'm sure the same story line was run last year . This time I suppose it's the outcome of the congress that has the punters buzzing .

Whilst he ponders on congress , he can watch as airlines cut flights to reduce capacity .

Pure physics ........... by George ........... action - reaction .

But at least there's some hope down the line ....... in a decade or so if Congress conforms to his will and says stuff the enviroment .

It's about time oil got to retest that $130 spot anyways ...........

 

[Free Soul]

You guys think the value of gold is going to go up any further in the short term? I was hoping for a decrease in gold value before I bought some. But if its just going to continue going up, it might be worth me getting it now. Anyone?

 

[Sean K]

You guys think the value of gold is going to go up any further in the short term? I was hoping for a decrease in gold value before I bought some. But if its just going to continue going up, it might be worth me getting it now. Anyone?

LOL. You are going to get some vastly differing views here. Perhaps you should read through the last 10 pages to get an idea. First of all however, you need to define what exactly is 'short term'. One day, one week, one month, three months? And what is your investment horison? One day, six months, one year, five years? Makes it hard to make a call on whether ASF should 'advise' you to get into the gold sector without that basic understanding.

Looking forward to the various opinions.

 

[Free Soul]

Short term meaning the next couple of days. Long term, is however long before USD goes to pot. I'm buying gold bullion coins to diversify my portfolio. I dont know if I should wait till its abit lower (if it will get lower in the short term) Or just buy now...

 

[Aussiejeff]

Short term meaning the next couple of days. Long term, is however long before USD goes to pot. I'm buying gold bullion coins to diversify my portfolio. I dont know if I should wait till its abit lower (if it will get lower in the short term) Or just buy now...

You are in the same boat as Columbus ... should I stay or should I go (to the New World)!!

LOL

Seriously though, IMO short term fundamentals are being seriously affected by sentiment at the moment (have been for some time). Many times it seems a whisper in a dark corner somewhere in cyberspace can have as much effect on the short term price of any share or commodity as fundamentals can... so caution required.


AJ

 

[wayneL]

Short term meaning the next couple of days. Long term, is however long before USD goes to pot. I'm buying gold bullion coins to diversify my portfolio. I dont know if I should wait till its abit lower (if it will get lower in the short term) Or just buy now...

I'm buying Krugs for their copper content.

::

 

[Free Soul]

krugs for copper? I like it for the gold . Though I do haver a question about the freddy's, does it make a difference when selling if I get an older kruggie? You know the ones that are not as shiny etc. Also, ok, so the short term price is going crazy with internet rumors, so I guess that means that now is as good a time as any to buy cause short term is hard to predict?

 

[josjes]

Gold in Aus$ price for the last 3 years with William%R at the bottom chart. Whenever W%R cross below -80 (shaded area) that is the buying point for long term holder. That is what I have been practicing for the last months.

 

[wayneL]

Gold in Aus$ price for the last 3 years with William%R at the bottom chart. Whenever W%R cross below -80 (shaded area) that is the buying point for long term holder. That is what I have been practicing for the last months.

I think the fast stochastic is far better than Williams%R.