Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Trembling Hand]

Rough Silver she's drop 25% in 6 months(equity markets) you think she will drop another 25% in the next 6 months? Probably not but if is does it will be on NEW themes, NEW twists.

 

[MRC & Co]

Everyone knew about the 1929 bust, and everyone famously called bottoms all the way down. Just because all know doesn't mean its all priced in. Bear mkts slide down a "hill of hope".

Yes, I have to agree.

IF the market looses another 20%, it will be on the same themes, just new information.

The big killer at the moment is the inflation rate, oil is a large cause, not to mention, food prices.

Heck, even a country like China is barely experiencing any "real" growth, it's simply all being gulped up by inflation, lucky for them, it includes demand driven, for Western society, it appears all cost-push.

The staglfation issue is causing a real bungle, I will love to see how they plan to get out of it, other than recession............of course, statistical manipulation is never off the cards

If recession "officially" occurs in the US, will be interesting to know if expectations have already factored it in........

 

[refined silver]

Rough Silver she's drop 25% in 6 months(equity markets) you think she will drop another 25% in the next 6 months? Probably not but if is does it will be on NEW themes, NEW twists.

I think its more likely going to be NEW NAMES.

Yes, I think the sectors I mentioned are not close to bottoming yet.

 

[michael_selway]

I think its more likely going to be NEW NAMES.

Yes, I think the sectors I mentioned are not close to bottoming yet.

Hi here's a good site on some gold stocks

http://www.minesite.com/fileadmin/content/pdfs/Brokers_Notes_June/BGFGoldSector2Junefinal1.pdf

thx

MS

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Hi here's a good site on some gold stocks

http://www.minesite.com/fileadmin/content/pdfs/Brokers_Notes_June/BGFGoldSector2Junefinal1.pdf

thx

MS

Excellent stuff - must keep an eye out for the developers report

 

[cuttlefish]

Cheers Michael - it was interesting to read through that and compare to my own personal views on the values of the various stocks covered - actually a reasonably good match on the ones I'm familiar with (about half of them) which is reassuring. Its a pretty comprehensive report.

 

[wavepicker]

I don't like posting links to other sites very often as it's not my style, but I think this is a very good Technical Analysis presentation by Adam Hewison whom I have a lot of time for.

Both Apocalyto and I have expressed our views on this thread both written, and more so graphically in the last few months. We have been classed non resptable posters, dreamers and out of touch with the supply and demand fundematals. But the markets just keep moving our way.

Adam Hewison been around for a long time, and I find it very interesting that his analysis concurs with what we have been presenting very well. (There is no EW, cycles or other theories as they have been called by various posters on this thread in this presentation)

As he says in this video, it ain't the fundementals that are the primary drivers of the markets, it's perception.

As such it comes as no surprise to me to see the current decline in Gold and rally in the USD which is exactly what we expected.



http://broadcast.ino.com/education/3markets4296/?3markets2


Cheers

 

[MRC & Co]

As he says in this video, it ain't the fundementals that are the primary drivers of the markets, it's perception.

In the short-term.

In the longer term, the market will at some stage, move somewhere near it's 'intrinsic value'.

Gold has hardly fallen to the levels you say, so the 'I told you so' is a bit premature yet. But good luck with the shorts.

 

[wavepicker]

In the short-term.

In the longer term, the market will at some stage, move somewhere near it's 'intrinsic value'.

Perhaps.
The market will do to it wants to.

"He who lives by the crystal ball must learn to eat glass.... just ask MRC & Co's dentist"

In the 20 years that I have followed markets, I have never wintnessed markets reach an equilibrium, but rather are always passing through an equilibrium until they reach an extreme up or down.

 

[MRC & Co]

Perhaps.
The market will do to it wants to.

"He who lives by the crystal ball must learn to eat glass.... just ask MRC & Co's dentist"

In the 20 years that I have followed markets, I have never wintnessed markets reach an equilibrium, but rather are always passing through an equilibrium until they reach an extreme up or down.

No, they will only oscillate around an equilibrium, which means, infact, at some point, they will reach an equilibrium (however vauge that equilibrium is, as it impossible to TRULY value something), very shortly, as they go on to move through it one way or the other. You said so yourself.

How about asking Buffetts dentist how his crystal ball worked?

Crystal ball? ha ha, coming from EW man.

I don't base my trades on fundamentals or crystal balls

Trade what you see and all that.

 

[barrett]

Potentially a bullish wedge forming right at the end of this chart.

Also potential for support from this trendline drawn on daily closes.. I'm a bull for the next couple of days unless it's broken.

On the other hand the US dollar index is looking positive, though not yet broken out of the upside resistance from its pennant. At this stage in the ST maybe the direction of oil is especially critical for deciding which way things go.

 

[Whiskers]

...maybe the direction of oil is especially critical for deciding which way things go.

Yeah, so say me.

It's been a laggard tracking the POG and together with the inevetable strengthening of the USD, I reckon it's just a matter of time until it bursts it's poofu valve.

 

[barrett]

Saudi Arabia says it's going to increase production, so oil breaks out of its week-long wedge to a new high.
Very bullish for gold and oil in the short term IMO. Went long earlier on the fly, hoping to add longs on pullbacks to the high 880s
spot crude hourly

 

[Sean K]

HUI and XAU taking very similar shape, as you would expect. Two distinct support levels. Perhaps corresponding to POG $860 and $840 aproximalimente?

The HUI's looking a bit head and shouldery there. eeeeek.

Just on S&R would expect those levels to hold all things being equal.

'Fundamental' changes such as Oil retreat, USD strength, Interest rate rises, the world starting to love each other, etc, may conspire to send everything lower.

Or, what wave are we in that's going to drive us into the 700s? Must go back and check.

 

[Sean K]

Or, what wave are we in that's going to drive us into the 700s? Must go back and check.

Ah, found the latest from WP which had us in a Wc heading lower towards $845.

Cr.p!! I have every right to be excited because I am short and trade going as I planned. What has been confirmed tonight is that Gold is going lower in the near future before it moves higher again. 3 waves always ubfold agianst the one larger trend, therefore the last low at 845 will be taken out.

Understanding that this is a dynamic business, is this wave count still valid? I assume that if POG bounces off $850 ish and passes up through Wb top at $930 ish, it is disproven? So far this has not occurred of course, so still on track?

 

[explod]

HUI and XAU taking very similar shape, as you would expect. Two distinct support levels. Perhaps corresponding to POG $860 and $840 aproximalimente?

The HUI's looking a bit head and shouldery there. eeeeek.

Just on S&R would expect those levels to hold all things being equal.

'Fundamental' changes such as Oil retreat, USD strength, Interest rate rises, the world starting to love each other, etc, may conspire to send everything lower.

Or, what wave are we in that's going to drive us into the 700s? Must go back and check.

The financial situation is the key. The US and now many other nations are servicing debt beyond means to repay, apart from dropping currency values. Those pennies are dropping. The support level of 860 is now strong.

I wonder if the coin of phrase "the penny drops" may have started life in the 1920's

 

[explod]

On sizing up overnight, notice from after our close gold rose $US27 in 6 hours and of course settling back down a bit lower during the US trade.

The power building and volatility is going to see a very strong move on the breakout.

 

[Sean K]

The power building and volatility is going to see a very strong move on the breakout.

You're assuming break up I assume? I'm on the fence until it proves itself. Getting exciting though. Big coil like, triangle type thing developing.

Here's another gold chart also indicating current support with the next level down perhaps.

 

[explod]

You're assuming break up I assume? I'm on the fence until it proves itself. Getting exciting though. Big coil like, triangle type thing developing.

Here's another gold chart also indicating current support with the next level down perhaps.

No, could go either way. Its volatility will be very marked by general market conditions for awhile. Fear will have huge effects in the next 3 months. W/P may even be correct in his shorter term analysis.

Just sit tight on the physical in the meantime.

 

[ithatheekret]

872 retested , with what looks like a confirmed support above 860 , that little chip above the last testing area has my attention at present .

I'm thinking this will be a long drawn out match , probably going into penalty time ............. shame the other side has no goalie and now they're so confused they've got the drinks runner dashing out with a bat .... or is it the thirteenth man on the wrong oval

London AM close back on 872 , feel like we've been here before ........ ?

What is worrying , is the rhetoric elsewhere , same style lead up , let's hope the actions aren't similar too .